Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Futures Markets
KEY CONCEPTS
Position Trader
Cost of Seats Fi% 4,p@6AA-& Seat can /e leased
$onthl( M4E:4@5Eof Seat price@ CBT has 4826
Full $e$/ers& G N e$/erships ,p@6AA-
Forward Market Traders: Banks & Firms
(Co. !n"estment Bankers etc.#
$rder (same as options#
#i$it Orders
.ood:Till:Canceled
'a( Orders@
Tradin% &rocedure? ,see Fi%@ 6& p@ 6;2-
Bu'er
Bu'ers
Broker
Bu'ers Brokers(
Commission Broker
)*chan%e
(Trade#
Clearin%house
(+ecord#
ar%in
ar%in
Mar%in: (p. ,-./,-, Ta0le ,#
=?"nitial ar%in 3 $ 9 7d ,$ 3 the a)era%e of the dail(
a/solute chan%es in the dollar )alue of a futures contract&
d 3 the standard de)iation& $easured o)er so$e ti$e
period in the recent past-@
Open "nterest?
Hed%e Funds
Option on Futures
Transaction Cost: Co$$ission& Bid:=s0 Spread& 'eli)er(
Cost
+e%ulation of Futures Markets
Chapter 8: &inciples of Forward & Futures
&ricin%
KEY CONCEPTS
*is0 Pre$iu$DContro)ers(
Forward Futures
Pri)ate contract /etween Traded on an exchan%e
two parties
Not standardiBed StandardiBed contract
<suall( one specified *an%e of deli)er( dates
deli)er( date
Settled at end of contract Settled dail(
'eli)er( or final cash Contract usuall( closed out
settle$ent usuall( ta0es prior to $aturit(
place
Forward &rice & Futures &rice
Price )s@ !alue
"s Price 3 !alue True for Futures or ForwardsT =ns@ No&
wh(T
Price 3 !alue ,fro$ efficient $ar0et-
F 3 forward price toda(
f 3 futures price toda(
F
t
3 forward price written at ti$e t
f
t
3 futures price written at ti$e t
!
t
3 )alue at ti$e t of a forward contract written toda(
3 S
t
: F,49r-
:,T:t-
M ti$e t
Ex@ p@6C2& F3422&r342E& T385 da(s& after 62da(s&
S3426& the )alue of Forward wD65 da(s 3 426:
422,4@42-
:65D7A5
36@A5
T
t 2
f
f
t
F F
t
Note? ,E3F3S,49r-
T
M ti$e 2& p@ 6C2-
!alue of Futures M T 3 )
T
3 f
T
: S
T
2
!alue of Futures M t 3 )
t
3 f
t
: f
t:4
,/efore $ar0ed:to:$0t-
G )
t
2 once $ar0ed:to:$0t
Forward "s. Futures &rices (p. ,8,/,83#
,The effect of dail( settle$ent on forward and
futures prices- ,if r is certain or uncorrelated to
f-
Exa$ple? ,= Two:Period odel-
=@ One da( prior to expiration , p@ 6C6-
Bu( a forward M F
t
and sell a future M f
t
The profit 3 ,:F
t
9f
T
- 9 ,f
t
: f
T
- 3 f
t
: F
t
2:in)est$ent G 2 ris0 M t 3O f
t
3 F
t
B@ Two da(s prior to expiration ,interest rate r is constant for
two periods& or uncorrelated to futures price- ,p@ 6C7-
Bu( a forward M F and sell ,49r-
:,T:t-
futures M f
=t ti$e t& the profit 3 ,f:f
t
-,49r-
:,T:t-
in)est in ris0:free
/onds@ This close the futures position@ Now& sell a new
futures M f
t
M T&
T
3 ,f
t
:f
T
- 9 I,f:f
t
-,49r-
:,T:t-
,49r-
,T:t-
J 9 ,f
T
:F-
3 f : F 3 2 , F2 in)est$ent G ris0:free-
f 9 (:# F if futures prices & interest rates are positi"el'
(ne%ati"el'# correlated (p. ,8;#
The )ffect of !ntermediate Cash Flows on Futures
&rice
#on% a Stoc0 S and Short a Futures at f
S S
T
9 '
T
2 f:f
T
3 f : S
T
S '
T
9f
S 3 ,'
T
9 f-,49r-
:T
Or f 3 S,49r-
T
: '
T
Ex@ S 3 F422& '
T
3 F6& r 3 AE& T 3 @65&
then f 3 422,4@2A-
@65
:6 3 FCC@8;
f 3 S,49r-
T
: '
t
,49r-
,T:t-
3 S,49r-
T
: '
T
3 Future Spot Price : F!,'- ,see p@6C5-
3 IS : P!,'-J,49r-
T
3 S 9
For Continuous 'i)idends? f 3 Se
,rc:-T
3 IS:P!,'-Je
rcT
3 S 9 ,where is the continuous di)idend (ield-& r
c
3
continuousl( co$pound ris0:free rate@
Ex4@ S 3 P5& 3 PE& r
c
3 42E& T 3 C2 da( 3
2@68A5;5(r& f 3 P5e
,2@4:@2P-2@68A5;5
Ex6@ S
.
<3. T<=.>?=3 r
c
<81 @<=1
f
.
<S
.
e
(..8/..=#=.>?=3
<;8.8, (p. ,8-#.
6
t
(.T#<S
t
/A
tT
/F(2Br#
/(T/t#
for the "alue of Forward
6
t
(.T#<S
t
e
:,T:t-
CFe
rc,T:t-
for continuous.
&6 of continuous A is S
t
,4:e
:,T:t-
#
"nterest *ate Parit(? F3S,49r-
T
D,49U-
T
F,49 U-F3FS,49r-
Or
P,S&E&T-3C,S&E&T-9P!,E:f-
C,f& T&E-3"!9T!
"!
C
3ax,2& f
t
:E- for Call at ti$e t&
"!
P
3ax,2& E:f
t
- for Put at ti$e t
Ex @ See p@747
Yhere
d
4
3 ln,fDE-9Z
6
TD6
Z [T
d
6
3 d
4
: Z [T
Ex
Chapter 2.: Futures Fr0itra%e Strate%ies
KEY CONCEPTS
*epo
Bu( a Bond :,B9="- B
T
9="
T
Borrow B9=" :,B9="-,49r-
T
Sell a T:Bond Futures f,CF-9="
T
: ,B
T
9="
T
-
Net Cash Flow 2 f,CF-9="
T
:,B9="-,49r-
T
. !n"estment . risk r < K(f(CF#BF!
T
#>(BBF!#L
2>T
/2
Current 'ate Expiration 'ate
On 2,>,>.3& p@7CP@ .i)en B347A@46AC5&P@465E coupon
of $ature on 5D45D6264& 'eli)er on 7D;&=" 3@7P & CF34@62P7&
f3446& ="
T
36@54 3P@465,C5D7A5-& r 3 7@PCE& T3C5D7A5&
r3I,446,4@62P7-96@54-D,47A@46AC592@7P-J],7A5DC5-37@PE
44D45
46D6D25
C5 'a(s
7D;D2A 6D45
F
F
T/Bond Futures Spread: Lon% & Short a T/B Futures
w> Aifferent )*piration Aates
34@2;CP&
CF
Q
34@2;C6& f
344A& f
Q
3445& ="
3@75& ="
Q
36@4A
3O,i$plied repo rate fro$ 7D47:AD44-
r 3 I,445,4@2;C6-96@4A-D,44A,4@2;CP-9@82 -J
7A5DC2
:4 3 4@CC
E ,ex@ P@ 787-
44D47 7D47 AD44
'eli)er( 'ate
For arch futures
'eli)er( 'ate
for Qune
f
344A
f
Q
3445
Turtle Trade? "$plied *epo *ate on T/Bond Spread
)s@ "$plied *ate on Fed Funds Futures
Stock !nde* Futures Strate%ies
Pro%ra$ Tradin%
=t least F4 $0t
!alue G =t least 45
Stoc0s transaction
)*chan%e +ate Fr0itra%e: !nterest +ate &arit' is
6iolated
=ssu$e Forward price3futures price
"nterest *ate Parit(? f,49r
R
-3S,49r
F
-& or in Continuous:
ti$e f3Se
,rF:rR-T
Ex? S3R2@;C2PDF& r
F
35@P8E& r
R37@5C
E& T3C2D7A532@68AA
B( "nterest *ate Parit(&
f,4@25P8-32@;C2P,4@275C-& f3 R2@;PAADF
"f F^R2@;PAADF& the =r/itra%e Exists
Bu( #ow Sell Hi%h
This Fr0itra%e is called
Co"ered !nterest
Fr0itra%e
Chapter 22: Forward and Futures Med%in%
Spread and Tar%et Strate%ies
KEY CONCEPTS
Yh( Hed%e
Hed%in% concepts
The Basis
Basis 3 spot price : futures price@
Hed%in% and the Basis
,short hed%e- 3 S
T
: S
2
,fro$ spot $ar0et- : ,f
T
: f
2
-
,fro$ futures $ar0et-
,lon% hed%e- 3 :S
T
9 S
2
,fro$ spot $ar0et- 9 ,f
T
: f
2
-
,fro$ futures $ar0et-
,short hed%e- 3 S
t
: S
2
: ,f
t
: f
2
-
t
=(Short hed%e-3 /
t
: /
2
& "f Position closed out M
ti$e t@
&rofit from Med%e Strate%' ?
T
Profit of lon% spot and short future,i@e@&Short
Hed%e-
3 ,S
T
: S- 9 ,f : f
T
- 3 f : S 3 : /
2
,Bu( M S and
Sell M f-
T
,#on% Hed%e- 3 /
2
t T
Spot
futures
Spread
Exa$ple@
S 3 C5& f 3 C;& S
T
3 x&
T
,Short Hed%e- 3 F6 ,wh(T-
t
3 ,S
t
: S- 9 ,f : f
t
- 3 ,S
t
:f
t
- : ,S:f- 3 S:f 3 /
t
: /
2
@
0
t
: /
2
"s Stochastic
S O f Stren%thenin% Basis for Short Hed%er
S X f Yea0enin% /asis for Short Hed%er
"f closed out /efore expiration date at ti$e t
Mt& S
t
3 C6& f
t
3 C2& .i)en S 3 C5& f 3 C;&
then
t
,Short Hed%e- 3 ,C6:C2-:,C5:C;-
3 6:,:6-38
<
6
S
B N
6
f
6
f
9 6N
f
Sf
ini$iBin%
6
3O N
f
3 :
Sf
D
6
f
3 : in the
re%ression of S on f
Effecti)eness of Hed%e
e\ 3 ,
6
S
:
6
-D
6
S
3 N
6
f
6
f
D
6
S
Consider? S 3 9 f 9 & Then
The Effecti)eness of the ini$u$ !ariance
Hed%e
e\ 3 ,
6
S
:
6
-D
6
S
3 *
6
3 The Coefficient of
'eter$ination in The *e%ression =nal(sis@
F. Minimum 6ariance Med%e +atio (continued#
Hed%in% effecti)eness is
e
\
3 ,ris0 of unhed%ed position : ris0 of hed%ed
position-Dris0 of unhed%ed position
This is coefficient of deter$ination fro$ re%ression@
B. &rice Sensiti"it' Med%e +atio
H/r 3 S/r +
f
f/r& Portfolio H 3 S 9
f
f
3 ,S/(
s
)((
s
/r) + f(f/(
f
)((
f
/r) 3 2
3O N
f
3 : ,S/(
s
)D,f/(
f
- if (
s
/r = (
f
/r
or
N
f
3 : ,SD(
s
-D,fD(
f
-
"n Ter$s of 'uration
'
s
3 :I,SDS-,49(
s
-JD(
s
N
f
3 : I'
s
SD,49(
s
-JDI'
f
fD,49(
f
-J
&rice Sensiti"it' Med%e +atio
=
+
=
T
4 t
t
t
(- ,4
CP
B
'uration 3 ' 3 Yei%hted =)era%e aturit( of
Bond
' 3 :,BDB-DI(D,49(-J
BDB :'I(D,49(Dn-J& n 3 _ of "nterest
Pa($entD(r
)*ample: Ji"en
B 3 P!,c
i
- 9 P!,P-
' 3 iIP!,c
i
-JDB& 7 (ears 42E Coupon Bond wDface
!alue F422& (3 46E& paid se$iannual?
Ti$e Pa($ent P!,c
i
- Yei%ht Ti$e x Yei%ht
2@5 5 8@;4; 2@28CA 2@268P
4@2 5 8@852 2@28AP 2@28AP
4@5 5 8@4CP 2@2886 2@2AA7
6@2 5 7@CA2 2@284A 2@2P76
6@5 5 7@;7A 2@27C7 2@2CP7
7@2 425 ;8@264 2@;;P5 6@7755
Total 472 83..8, 2..... ,.=3;8< A
&rice Sensiti"it' Med%e +atio (continued#
=n approxi$ation to the chan%e in price for a (ield
chan%e is
with '<*
B
/ein% the /ondVs duration& which is a
wei%hted:a)era%e of the ti$es to each cash pa($ent
date on the /ond& and represents the chan%e in the
/ond price or (ield@
'uration has $an( wea0nesses /ut is widel( used as a
$easure of the sensiti)it( of a /ondVs price to its (ield@
Modified Auration MA:
'3 '<*D,49(-
( 4
(- , '<*
B B
B
+
=
&rice Sensiti"it' Med%e +atio (continued#
+
+
=
f
B
'
'
( 4
( 4
f
B
'<*
'<*
N
f
B
B
f
f
B
f
&rice Sensiti"it' Med%e +atio (continued#
=lternati)el(&
O
f
< /(4ield 0eta#&6B&
B
>&6B&
f
where Yield /eta c
(
is the /eta fro$ a
re%ression of spot (ields (
/
on futures i$plied
(ields and
P!BP
B
& P!BP
f
is the present )alue of a /asis
point chan%e in the spot and futures prices@
That is& P!BP
B
3 NBDN(
/
3'
B
B
yieldbeta
=
f
B
'
'
N
f
B
f
C. Stock !nde* Futures Med%in% (&rice sensiti"it'
is not applica0le to Stock !nde*#
Fro$ the ini$u$ !ariance Hed%e& %i)en S 3 r
s
S& f 3
r
f
f & an appropriate hed%e ratio is
N
f
3 :
s
,SDf-& where
s
is o/tained /( re%ression of
r
s
3 9
s
r
f
9 ,0t odel-
Med%in% Strate%ies: Fpplications
2. Currenc' Med%es
3F427&P;5DFutures
,Ta0le 8 p. ?8.-
On 6D68& a Co$pan( decides to issue F5 face )alue of
/ond on 5D68 expected (
S
347@;AE couponG price at par wD62
(rs $aturit( and '
S
3;@@66 duration@ T:/ond futures are at AP
44D76 ,3FAP&787@;5-& '
f
3;@PP
N
f
3 :'
s
SD'
f
f3:;@66,5-D;@PP,AP&787@;5-3:
A;@2@ Sell =- T/Bond Futures.
YDHed%e& A;,AP&787@;5:A2&;P4@65-3F52A&AP;@5
.ain fro$ futures& Total F recei)e3F8&57;&74C9
F52A&AP;@5 3F3.;;..=.3 or Yield of 47@A7E
?. Stock !nde* Futures Med%e (f< CM) inde*Q7,3.#
Ke( Concepts