Quantitative Modeling –

Part-2
A Multiregional
multisectoral Transport
Model for India
Presented by

Dr Tarun Das
Professor, IILM, Lodhi Inst.
Area
Formerly Economic Adviser,
Planning Commission and Min of
 CONTENTS

1. Macroeconomic and Transport Model

2. Surveys of Traffic Flows and Modal
Costs
3. Model Results
4. Conclusions

2
 1.1 A Multisectoral Multiregional
Transport Model for India
Macro Model and Sub-models:
1. Macroeconomic and input-output model
2. Regional Allocation and Traffic Generation
3. Traffic Distribution
4. Optimal modal split
5. Network assignments
6. Investment and physical planning
7. Economic Evaluation
8. Systems feedback

3
1.2 Macroeconomic and Input Output
Model in Leontief Framework
Xit =  aij Xjt +Fit
Fit = Cit + Git + Iit + STit + EXit - IMPit
Cit estimated by Engel curves
Linear C =  +  Y
Loglinear Log C =  +  Log Y
Semi log Log C =  +  Y
Log Inverse Log C =  +  / Y
Log Log Inverse Log C =  + 1 Log Y+ 2 / Y
Iit is estimated by investment sub model within a framework of a
distributed lag mode.
Git is estimated by minimum needs program and other public distribution
and welfare programs.
STit by fixed coefficients.
EXit are exogenous.
IMPit = mjt xjt + ki Cit + bi Git + hi Iitl

4
 1.3 Regional Allocation and
Traffic Generation
Regional demarcation: India is divided 420
zones (broadly coinciding with districts) and
20 regions.
Commodity aggregation: by rail traffic
classifications.
1. Regional allocation of supply- Shift and share
technique
2. Regional allocation of demand- Regional
input-output model in Leontief framework
3. Surveys on transport cost by rail, road, air,
inland water and coastal shipping
Transport cost = User cost + Operator cost

5
 1.4 Traffic Forecasting
Models
1. Time trend method
2. Elasticity approach
3. Traffic intensity method
4. Transport coefficient method
5. Multiple regression model
6. Input-output model
7. Material balance approach
8. Linear programming model
9. Gravity model
6
 1.5 Traffic Distribution
1. Gravity model for heterogeneous goods
Trs = Ar Bs Xr Ds exp (- Crs) for each commodity i
Xr =  Trs over s= 1 to 20
Ds = Trs over r=1 to 20
X = Xr + Ds
2. Linear Programming Model for
homogeneous goods
3. Calibration of the model for
determination of commodity specific
parameter 
4. Test of the model
7
 1.6 Modal Split and
Other Sub-models
1. Modal split by least cost mode
2. Network assignment by successive
shortest path with capacity constraints
3. Investment requirement of each mode
and region is estimated in terms of
infrastructure and vehicular needs given
the age profile and life span of existing
stock.
4. System is evaluated for resource
constrains in terms of time, money,
energy and foreign exchange needs.

8
 2.1 Survey on traffic flows
and modal costs
1. Comprehensive All India Survey conducted by
RITES with the help of state govts.
2. Computerized Railway data for the year 1986-87-
O-D matrix for commodities for 7000 railway
stations
3. Survey for roads and ports
4. Computerized Air passenger data by Indian airlines
for all origins and destination
5. Economic cost= Operator cost+ user cost
6. Shadow price for labour and energy

9
 2.2 Traffic of Bulk Goods in
1986-87
Items Mln Bln Rail Road Total
ton TKM Lead Lead Km

1.Foodgrains 46 34 1146 386 748

2.Coal 120 82 717 469 482
3.Iron ore 22 7 325 373 327
4.POL 30 13 504 271 429
5.Iron-steel 20 16 1191 487 308
6.Cement 31 16 673 276 524
7.Fertilisers 24 17 939 292 706 10
 2.3 Commodity-wise shares
(%)
Goods Rail Road Total Rail Road Total
Ton Ton Ton tkm tkm tkm
Foodgrains 8.5 10.7 9.5 12.5 10.2 11.8
Coal 40.7 7.4 25.1 37.8 8.3 28.4
Iron ore 8.2 0.4 4.6 3.4 0.4 2.5
POL 8.1 4.4 6.4 5.3 2.9 4.5
Iron & steel 3.6 4.9 4.2 3.5 5.9 5.6
Cement 7.6 5.3 6.5 6.6 3.6 5.7
Fertilizers 5.5 4.3 4.9 7.0 3.1 5.7
11
 2.4 Modal Shares- Rail and
Goods Road
Rail Ton Road Ton Rail TKM Road tkm
Foodgrains 48 52 73 27
Coal 86 14 91 9
Iron ore 96 4 95 5
POL 68 32 80 20
Iron-steel 46 54 67 33
Cement 62 38 80 20
Fertilisers 59 41 83 17
All goods 53 47 69 31 12
 2.5 Break-even points for road
(kms)
Goods Road 1976-77 1986-87 % shift
Lead km price price
Foodgrains 386 247 280 +13.4
Coal 469 201 232 +15.4
Iron ore 373 241 324 +34.4
POL 271 60 67 +10.1
Iron-steel 487 311 220 -29.3
Cement 276 222 193 -13.1
Fertilisers 292 200 184 -8.0
All goods 406 200 210 +5.0 13
 3.1 Model results
1. Traffic forecast for 1990-91 and 1995-
96
2. Modal split by least cost mode
2. Network assignment and identification
of high density corridors by rail and
road
3. Investment requirements of each mode
4. Recommendations regarding
rationalisation of passenger fares and
freight rates

14
 4. Concluding Remarks
1. Rail transport is least expensive for long and
medium distance and bulk traffic
2. Rail transport is least energy intensive, more
environment friendly and less accident prone.
3. Road transport is cheapest mode for short distance
and consumer friendly for door to door service. It
also generates more employment and helps in
enhancing rural connectivity.
4. However, road transport is more energy intensive
and leads to pollution problems and traffic hazard.

15
 Thank you
Have a Good Day

16