0 évaluation0% ont trouvé ce document utile (0 vote)
18 vues63 pages
Demography is the study of human populations - size - Composition - Distribution - Causes and consequences of changes in those characteristics Demography is interdisciplinary Many factors impact population Demographers can be trained in Sociology - Economics - Biology - Geography - History - Health sciences - ANTHROPOLOGY Population measures fertility Mortality Migration fertility number of births that occur to an individual or in a population Worldwide fertility ranges from 1. In Spain to 7. In Niger US
Demography is the study of human populations - size - Composition - Distribution - Causes and consequences of changes in those characteristics Demography is interdisciplinary Many factors impact population Demographers can be trained in Sociology - Economics - Biology - Geography - History - Health sciences - ANTHROPOLOGY Population measures fertility Mortality Migration fertility number of births that occur to an individual or in a population Worldwide fertility ranges from 1. In Spain to 7. In Niger US
Demography is the study of human populations - size - Composition - Distribution - Causes and consequences of changes in those characteristics Demography is interdisciplinary Many factors impact population Demographers can be trained in Sociology - Economics - Biology - Geography - History - Health sciences - ANTHROPOLOGY Population measures fertility Mortality Migration fertility number of births that occur to an individual or in a population Worldwide fertility ranges from 1. In Spain to 7. In Niger US
Science The study of human populations Size Composition Distribution Causes and consequences of changes in those characteristics Demography is interdisciplinary Many factors impact population Demographers can be trained in Sociology Economics Biology Geography History Health sciences ANTHROPOLOGY
Population measures Fertility Mortality Migration
Fertility Number of births that occur to an individual or in a population Worldwide fertility ranges from 1.3 in Spain to 7.4 in Niger US fertility is approx. 2.1 Hutterite fertility was 12
Fecundity Physiological ability to have children Fecundity ranges from 0-30 in females to 0- infinity in males Factors which limit reproduction Cultural Social Economic Epidemiological
Intermediate variables affecting fertility Davis and Blake 1956 Fecundity Ability to have intercourse, conceive, and carry to term Sexual unions Formation and dissolution, age at first intercourse, proportion of women in unions, time spent outside a union, coital frequency, celibacy, temporary separations Birth control Contraceptive use, sterilization, abortion
Industrialized countries Contraceptive use and abortion most important factors Developing countries Infecundity due to STDs, HIV/AIDS, lactational amenoreah (Interbirth interval), and postpartum abstinence (postpartum taboo) most important factors Fertility patterns This implies that people in industrialized countries want to limit their fertility and people in developing countries are limited by exogenous factors Measures of fertility Period rates Cohort rates Period rates Total fertility rate (TFR) Average number of children born per women in a population Replacement level fertility Fertility required to keep a population at its current level Crude birth rate (CBR) Number of births per 1000 population General fertility rate (GFR) Number of births per woman Net reproductive rate (R 0 ) Current births plus expected births (RV) Period rates contd. Most of these measures focus on women 15-49 years old. Why?
Cohort rates Completed fertility rate (CFR) or completed family size (CFS) Number of live births to a woman who has completed reproduction (menopause) Variation in fertility Within a society or political entity Between a society or political entity Between men and women in the same society Mortality: Death Usually measured as Crude death rate: number of deaths per 1,000 population Worldwide range from 2 in the Persian Gulf states to 30 in civil war torn Sierra Leone n US about 9 per 1,000
Death rate Highly influence by age-structure of the population. Where a higher percentage of the population is older, death rates tend to be higher What about the effect of HIV/AIDS in relation to the age-specific death rate? Life Expectancy Number of years members of an age class can expect to live based on the current death rates of older age classes Often misused, is a period rate like TFR also constructed from a life table (sum of age-specific death rates) Not to be confused with life span The maximum human life span now seems to be in the 120s. Few people, however, live to be 100 Variation in mortality Age Sex Socioeconomic status
Migration Movement of people into or out of a specific geographic area Most variable of the agents of demographic change Difficult to measure due to lack of reporting and monitoring
Types of migration In-migration (immigration) Out-migration (emigration) International vs. internal
Net migration Difference between in- and out-migration Variation in migration Age Young adults, life cycle changes Gender In Africa males migrate, in much of Asia and Latin America females migrate Education Extremesboth very poor and very wealthy migrate Socioeconomic status Depends on the type of job
International migrants Major destinations for immigrants US, Australia, Canada, European Community, Israel Often motivated by economic hardship, war, political instability Chain migration Choice of destination determined by presence of social or kin network Variation in international migration Age Young adults Gender Same as for internal migration Education Educated, often professionals Socioeconomic status Higher than those who stay behind
Population size and growth Rate of natural increase Crude birth rate minus crude death rate In USA (1997) this was 14.6-8.6=6.0 (0.6%) Worldwide this was 23.1-9.0=14.0 (1.4%) Growth rate Rate of natural increase+net migration A growth rate of 1% means a population will double in 70 years
At present growth rates Worlds population will double in 50 years If the growth rate doubles to 2.8%, the worlds population will double in 25 years Conversely if the growth rate decreases by half to 0.7%, the doubling would occur in 100 years Demographic balancing equation Shows the roles of fertility, mortality, and migration in population change Population =Birthsdeaths +immigrants- emigrants Used in population projection Population projection Demographers can project population based on current rates of fertility, mortality, and migration Also can use estimated future rates Projections lose accuracy quickly as the projected time increases since it is difficult to know how demographic characters will be affected by variables in the future US hit 300,000,000 on Tuesday at ~7:30am
Population composition The aggregation of individual demographic characteristics on a population level Population pyramids Age sex composition Four shapes: Pyramidalhigh growth Rectangularslow growth Ovaldecline HourglassAIDS driven decline US Census International Population Pyramid Projections
Other components Sex Race Ethnicity Race Race as a classification has come under great fire There may be a genetic or biological component to race, but in general it is a subjective classification which varies greatly depending on time and place. For instance, slaves in the US could have only one-sixteenth African ancestry Today in the US this subjective classification continues Race may be useful It gives us some idea of who might be subject to discrimination Ethnicity refers to linguistic and/or cultural heritage and should not be confused with race
Population distribution Worldwide population distribution is shifting to developing countries due to higher fertility Both in the USA and worldwide, urbanization is a critical influence on population distribution
How many people can the earth support? Carrying capacity of the eartharound 10 billion (Cohen 1995) When will the earth reach 10 billion at current rates of growth? Around 2035
Demographic Transitions Three types of demographic transitions
Fertility Mortality Health (also called Epidemiologic) Why are demographic transitions important? The combined effect of demographic transitions results in very low population growth The age structure of the population becomes older This has effects on economy, health institutions, educational institutions
Geopolitics Most international population policy oriented towards slowing population growth has focused on inducing fertility transition This would lower fertility and slow population growth to some extent Reversing mortality and health transitions is not ethically or politically viable Theories of fertility transitions Classical demographic theory Economic models Social models Evolutionary models Classical transition theory Industrialization and modernization led to initial higher fertility due to improved health care and higher quality and more reliable food supply Because pre-industrial societies had high mortality, higher fertility was necessary for those societies to survive Fertility could only be expected to fall due to the effects of industrialization: higher survival, individualism, consumerism, mobile urban populations, lessening of familial ties, and decline of fatalism
Classical transition theory contd. Three phases of fertility decline Inicipient decline--widespread fertility control, heavy industrialization Transitional growth--low mortality but high fertility, industrializing High growth potentialhigh mortality and high fertility, very low industrialization
Economic explanations Applied principles of microeconomics to childrenanother normal good Differ in whether desire for children is established early in life or is based on current conditions Supply and demand: Children are more in demand where they are less expensive Economic value of children depends on context of subsistence economy.
Social explanations Post-modernist interpretation Ideational change is major motivator of fertility transitions Uses diffusion theory Ideas about the number of children to have follow linguistic boundaries and diffuse from elites and centers of power to the hinterlands Evolutionary perspectives Humans like other organisms evolved in the context of fitness maximization Maximizing genetic representation in succeeding generations Human lifestyles vary widely and may show great divergence from the lifestyle in which human reproductive psychology evolved We can still understand reproductive behavior in the present as the manifestation of evolved psychological mechanisms These perspectives differ in two related aspects Theory of motivation Are people motivated by the uptake of culturally specific roles or by their self-interest? Acquisition and utilization of information Do people pattern their fertility after some cultural norm or is fertility a response to environmental/economic conditions?
Cost/value of children Biologists (Trivers), demographers (Caldwell), and economists (Becker) have all independently recognized that offsprings ability to provision themselves are important factors in determining parental fertility Agriculture Cultivation and herd animals Domestication Occurred worldwide about 12,000 years ago Mesopotamia Levant China Indus valley Mesoamerica
Effects of agriculture Agriculture changes time allocation in relation to subsistence pattern Affects all age-sex groups Leads to effects of sedentization Changes diet composition Increase in simple carbohydrates such as starch and sugar Increased use of animal fat Use of dairy products Potential serious consequences in micronutrient balance
Epidemiological transition Increasing health issues related to agriculture and sedentism Diet led to vitamin/mineral deficiency in some places due to heavy reliance on one staple grain
Epidemiological transition cont. Dental problems Due to malnutrition Due to soft food and sweeteners Due to grit from grain processing Dental damage from grit and sugar Repetitive stress injury Difference in agricultural tasks More consistent food supply in most places Demographic transition Agriculture appears to be related to substantial increases in fertility and possible decreases in mortality Fertility change is due partly to diet change but also is strongly related to changes in time allocation and the benefits of sedentism Social consequences Population concentration Storage of resources Power differentials All led to complex societies Cities Social stratification Transition Nomadic hunter gatherers subsisted on widely varied diet including grasses, fruits, roots and tubers, mammals, birds, and fish Small groups used seasonal camps Population density 2-3 person/square mile Transition cont. Maize agriculture was introduced before 1050 Evidence Broken hoes Maize in refuse heaps Large settlements Largest had 1000 permanent inhabitants Continual occupation Population density increased to 25 persons/square mile
What happens if you only eat corn? Maize has very low levels of the amino acid lysine Relying heavily on maize leads to niacin deficiency called pellagra Pellagra has afflicted many maize eating populations including Southerners in the US during the depression in the 1930s How to avoid pellagra Native Americans in what is now Mexico treated maize with lime water or fire ash water This releases tryptophan from the maize which the body can utilize in the production of niacin Hopi Indians roasted maize which liberates niacin Others harvested maize when it was immature and contained more niacin People who did not know to do this and relied on maize suffered from pellagra
How did people learn this?
Reliance on a staple Nutritional problems Susceptibility to starvation Crop disease Drought Degenerative conditions Osteoarthritis of articular surfaces of joints and vertebral column 40% of hunter-gatherer adults 70% horticultural adults Repetitive stress injury? Child growth and development Horticultural children had decreased rate of growth 0-5 years Caught up to hunter-gatherer children after age 10
Child growth and development cont. Dental hypoplasias Deficiency in enamel thickness Result of physiological stress Position on tooth indicates age of stress 55% of hunter-gatherers have hypoplasias 80% of horticulturalists Horticulturalists hypoplasias peak at age 2 year earlier than hunter-gatherer Indicates earlier weaning and reliance on cereals as weaning foods Continual food shortage??
Life expectancy Hunter-gatherer life expectancy at birth is 26 years For horticulturalist 19 years 13% of H-G died at less than 1 year 22% of horticulturalist 15 year old H-G had 23 more years life expectancy 15 year old horticulturalist had 18 more years life expectancy