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IP Valuation
Ruth Fisher, PhD
www.QuantAA.com
Outline
When and Why You Need an Expert
Components of IP Valuations
Fields of Use
Discount Factors
Profit Streams
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When and Why You
Need a Valuation
Expert
Cost of Expert Valuation:
$1,000s – $10,000s
Use an expert when accuracy and credibility are
important
Valuationsubject to scrutiny
Large investments will be made
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Valuation Effort
Required
Expected Level of
Circumstance Degree of Effort
Scrutiny Required
Expected Level of
Circumstance Degree of Effort
Scrutiny Required
Expected Level of
Degree of Effort
Circumstance
Scrutiny Required
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Components of
IP Valuations
IP Value
= Sum for all Fields of Use i of
(Present Discounted Value)i
of (Profit)i
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Fields of Use
A field of use is a specific application,
industry, product line, or geography
for the invention
Each field of use may be developed,
licensed, and/or marketed separately
Each field of use must be valued
separately
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Examples of Fields of
Use
Saran Wrap®
Meat packaging in the United States
Book packaging in Europe
Packaging
of entertainment products
(CDs, DVDs, etc.)
Gift packaging (wrapping paper)
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Fields of Use Matrix
Latin
U.S. Europe America Asia
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Present Discounted
Value
Intuitively: A dollar today is worth more
than a dollar tomorrow, and discounting
makes you indifferent between revenue in
future and PDV of revenue today
Discounting accounts for
Time Value of Money: Interest rate and/or opportunity cost
(return on other projects)
Technology Risks: Will the invention yield a viable product?
Marketing Risks: Will there be demand for the product at a
profitable price?
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Present Discounted
Value (cont.)
PDV is calculated by applying discount
factors to future revenue streams
Discount factors are “weights” for future
$ relative to initial period $
Weights decrease with time
Weights decrease with risk (discount rate)
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Discount Factors:
A Graphical Illustration
1.00
1.00
Discount Factor
0.80
0.67
0.60
0.44
0.40 0.30
0.20
0.20
0.00
1 2 3 4 5
Period
r = 10% r = 25% r = 50%
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Discounted Factor
(t −1)
1
Discount Factort = ,
1+r
where t is the # periods in the future
r is the discount rate (level of risk)
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Present Discounted
Value: A Tabular
Example (cont.)
$5.00
$5.00
r =0%
$4.17 r =10%
$4.00 r =25%
$3.36 r =50%
$3.00 $2.61
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
PDV
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Present Discounted
Value: Another Tabular
Example
Period Period Period Period Period
1 2 3 4 5
PV
Discount Factor: 1.00 0.80 0.64 0.51 0.41
r = 25%
Nominal $ $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $3.36
Nominal $ $2 $2 $1 $0 $0 $4.24
(↑ 26%)
Nominal $ $0 $0 $1 $2 $2 $2.48
(↓ 26%)
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Present Discounted Value:
Another Tabular Example
(cont.)
$5.00
Earlier Stream
$4.24
Constant Stream
$4.00 Later Stream
$3.36
$3.00
$2.48
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
PDV
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Discount Rates
Discount Rates (Levels of Risk)
Vary across Industries
Increase with Time to Market
Decrease with Stage of Development
Basic Research Result: Development of idea
Prototype Development Stage: Functionality of
technology
Pilot Production Stage: Manufacturing ability
Advanced Stage: Product marketing and production
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Sample Discount Rates
Stage of Discount Discount
Development Rate 1 Rate 2
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Profit If Successful
Valuation Methods
Cost-Based Approach: Cost of
reproducing/replacing technology
Market-Based Approach: Price of
similar technologies
Economic Analysis: PDV of future
profit streams
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Cost-Based Approach
(Cost of reproducing technology)
Useful for determining whether to
develop in-house or license
Helps to put bounds on amount willing
to pay or receive for license
Does not account for market demand
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Market-Based
Approach
(Price of similar technologies)
Requires
existence of a market for comparables
with open knowledge of terms of sale
and willing parties to the negotiations
Adjustments for comparability often
subject to dispute
SeeEconomic Factors for determination of
adjustments for comparability
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Economic Analysis
(PDV of future profit streams)
Intrinsic Value Factors
Benefits of IP relative to Alternatives
Size of Product Market
Marginal Change:
Market ~ Existing Users
Revolutionary Change:
Market ~ Existing Users + New Users
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Size of Product Market
Marginal Revolutionary
Change Change
Total
Total
Population
Population
New
Market
Old Market =
New Market Old
Market
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Economic Analysis (cont.)
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Contribution of IP to Profits
IP at Issue
Other IP
Mfg Risk
Other
Business Risk
Non-Patented
Components
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Economic Analysis (cont.)
Manufacturing/Supply Factors
Capacity Constraints
Access to Raw Materials
Access to Consumers
Regulatory Environment
Tariffs
Quotas
Price Caps
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Economic Analysis (cont.)
Demand Factors
Consumer Appeal v. Alternatives
Marginal v. Revolutionary Change
Consumer Switching Costs
Consumer Acceptance of Product
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Economic Analysis (cont.)
Market Saturation
Current/Future Substitutes
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Product Lifecycle
Sales
Time
Current Sales Alt'v Current Sales Market Saturation
Repeat Sales Future Substitute
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Profit Allocation:
Licensor v. Licensee
Profit from
Invention
Licensor’
s
Share Licensee’
s
Share
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Profit Allocation:
Licensor v. Licensee
Form of Allocation
Types
Up-Front Payment
Milestone Payments
Royalty Payments
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Profit Allocation:
Licensor v. Licensee
(cont.)
Form of Allocation (cont.)
How Determined
Deliverables?
Transfer of knowledge?
Risk Sharing
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Profit Allocation:
Licensor v. Licensee
(cont.)
Size of Allocation Depends on
Fees for similar licenses
Stage of development
Bargaining power of parties
(alternatives available to each)
Rules of Thumb:1 4 − 13 of net profits
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Maximization of IP
Value
Capture all fields of use
Rank applications by profitability
Rankapplications by probability of
success
Considerwho is most suited to
exploit each application
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Contact Information
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