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Why Hybrid Vehicles?

If you want a CD or handout of this lecture contact:


L. David Roper
Professor Emeritus of Physics
Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ.
roperld@vt.edu
http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10642724

http://www.hybridcenter.org
Why Hybrid Vehicles?
 Emissions from vehicles is causing global warming
and human sickness.
 Oil extraction peaked in the U.S. in the early
1970s.
 Oil extraction is peaking for the world about now.
 Natural gas extraction peaked in the U.S. in the
late 1970s.
 Natural gas extraction for the world will peak
within a decade or two.
 Hybrid vehicles produce much less emissions and
use about 50% less fuel than the average new
vehicle in the same class. (Partial-Zero emissions)
 Plug-in Hybrid vehicles eventually will be charged
at parking locations using renewable energy. They
will use at least half as much fuel as do hybrids.
U.S. Oil Extraction
This fit to the data gives future reserves as ~1.5 times 2003 proven
reserves.

Alaska
increment

My
birth. It will mostly
be gone when
I am 100 years
old.

Note the desperation jitter that occurs near an


extraction peak.
U.S. oil discoveries peaked about 1930.
Watch this grow in the
future!

From International Energy Agency.


ROW = Rest of the World.
It is easy to see why the U.S. starts wars for oil.
U. S. Oil Consumption and
Imports
The Arctic
National Wildlife
Refuge is
estimated to
contain 7x109
barrels of oil;
about one year's
supply for the
U.S., a mere blip
on Alaska
extraction.

Alaska
extraction
peaked in
1988 about 10
years after it
started.

http://www.eia.gov
Natural Gas Facts
 The main component is methane (CH4).
 Natural Gas burns cleaner than gasoline or diesel.
(I used butane/propane @ $0.17/gallon in my
vehicle while in college 1954-8.)
 Power companies prefer natural gas rather than
coal as a fuel because it is cleaner burning and
easier to transport by pipelines.
 33% of U.S. energy comes from natural gas.
 95% of nitrogen fertilizer used by U.S. farmers is
made from natural gas. Increasingly being
imported because of high prices for U.S. natural
gas.
 “Natural gas” can be made from sewage and
extracted from land fills. Future power stations
need to be located at land fills and sewage plants
and/or where the heat generated can be used (co-
generation).
U.S. Natural Gas Extraction
This fit to the data gives future reserves as ~5 times 2003 proven
reserves.

About 15%
of
consumptio
n imported,
mostly
from
Canada.

Largest
reserves
are in
Russia, Iran
and Qatar.

Note the desperation jitter.


World Oil Discoveries

http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html
from ExxonMobil
World Oil Extraction

Note the desperation jitter.


World oil discoveries
1965. peaked about
World Oil Extraction Per Capita
http://dieoff.com/page224.htm
World Petroleum Extraction Per Capita
5.5

5
World Petroleum Extraction Per Capita

4.5

4
(barrels/person/year)

3.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
year

Barrels of crude oil per capita per year for the


World.
The prediction is calculated using fits to World petroleum extraction rates and
1947-2004

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif
The fit is to the
data after Jan
2002.

http://www.eia.doe.gov
Daily prices:
A World economic
slump or collapse
will probably keep oil
prices from rising
this rapidly.

http://www.eia.doe.gov
Eventually the price of oil
will approach some
asymptote after only the
dregs are left to be
extracted from the Earth
and after humans quit
burning it and recycle it
instead.
The fit is to the
data after Jan
1999.

http://www.eia.doe.gov
Daily prices:
What about Using Ethanol and/or Biodiesel for
Fuel?
Farmers must use biofuels to
produce biofuels, not petrofuels!

www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt

Closed carbon dioxide greenhouse gas cycle for biofuels.


Ethanol & biodiesel are sustainable forms of solar energy.
What if biodiesel
were made from
biowaste?

It takes 10% more


Current
energy to make disagreement
gasoline than
gasoline yields as
a fuel.

Need to use ethanol to produce


ethanol!
Ethanol as a Fuel
 Two mixtures of gasoline and
alcohol are available at a few fuel
stations in the United States: The availability of E85 filling
E10=10% ethanol (101 octane) by
volume and E85=85% ethanol (105 stations in 35 states in the
octane) by volume. Unfortunately, United States.
World production of ethanol for fuel
has not been increasing very http://www.e85fuel.com/database/search.php
rapidly. http://www.e85fuel.com
 All vehicles since the 1970s are Virginia is way
capable of burning E10, but filling behind!
stations are not widely available.
 One could create E10 at E85 filling
stations by putting in about 8.35 of
gasoline for each gallon of E85, as
calculated from:
0.1 = 0.85e/(g + 0.15e)
where e = amount of E85 Flexible Fuel Vehicles can burn
and g = amount of gasoline. gasoline and E85 or diesel and
 A list of Flexible Fuel Vehicles (FFV)
can be found at biodiesel.
http://www.e85fuel.com/e85101/flexfuelvehicles.php .l
In 2006 General Motors made 6
FFVs, Daimler Chrysler made 5,
Ford made 5 and Nissan made 1.
General Motors and Ford Motor It costs $100 extra to make a vehicle
Company are promising more in
the future: FFV.
http://www.gm.com/company/gmability/environment/e85/index.html
http://media.ford.com/newsroom/feature_display.cfm?release=21949
Ford plans to market a FFV version
of the Escape hybrid.
You get more than
ethanol out of the
process!
Brazil and Ethanol
www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt

=E85 or = E10
gasoline
Ethanol (Brazil) versus Gasoline
Prices
(1980->2002 $US/GigaJoule)
www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt

Ethanol in Brazil

Gasoline in
Rotterdam
Brazil sugar-cane/ethanol learning curve
Liters of ethanol produced per hectare between 1975 to 2004

www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt

Rendimento Agroindustrial – Brasil


(em litros de álcool hidratado equivalente por hectare)
6500
6000
5931
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
+3,77% aa em 29 anos
2000 2024

1500
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
Fonte: Datagro
08 Nov 2005 Nastari / Datagro @ Proálcool 30 anos 11
Methanol Economy
 New efficient ways to create methanol (&
dimethyl ether) from methane:
2CH4+O2->2CH3OH
 Create methanol
Problem: from
Easier to CO2CO
capture
2
at at
power
power
plantsplant
and than
from air:millions of vehicles!
from
2CO2+4H2O->2CH3OH+3O2
 Use methanol (dimethyl ether) as
replacements for gasoline (diesel) and in
fuel cells. 2CH3OH+3O2->2CO2+4H2O
 Use methanol as replacement for
petroleum for hydrocarbon products.
 Beyond Oil and Gas: The Methanol
Economy by Olah, Goeppert & Prakash.
Biodiesel Versus Diesel
 Both are 15-20% more efficient fuels than gasoline.
 Diesel emits more pollutants than gasoline because
each molecule has about 5 to 7 more methane units.
They can be eliminated by catalytic converters, as they
have been in German vehicles.
 See http://www.whpubs.com/epa.pdf
 Biodiesel:
 Can be used in diesel engines.
 Emits 50% less carbon monoxide and 78% less carbon
dioxide than diesel.
 Contains no sulfur.
 Emits 75% less particulates than diesel.
 Emits more nitrous oxides (smog) than diesel, but they
can be removed by catalytic converters.
 Ignites more readily in an engine but less readily in the
atmosphere than does diesel.
 Biodiesel may be the transport fuel of the future.
 See Biodiesel by Greg Pahl and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel and
http://hybridiesel.blogspot.com/2005/02/good-discussion-about-potential-of.htm
Biodiesel from Algae
 Over 50% of algae mass is oil. Over 30
times more oil per area than other fuel
plants (e.g. soybeans).
 Both fresh-water and salt-water algae.
 Most efficient photoreceptors of all plants.
 Liquid environment allows better access to
carbon dioxide, nitrogen and minerals
needed for growth.
 Arid zones are ideal because of high solar
exposure.
 Locate beside power plants to absorb the
carbon dioxide produced.
 Commercial bioreactors for producing oil
from algae are expected soon.
World Biodiesel Production

Curve is 73%
growth.
Growth is faster.

Biodiesel: Growing A New Energy Economy by Greg Pahl


Comparison of Biodiesel to
Petroleum

A 73% rate of growth in World biodiesel production would equal


World petroleum extraction by about 2022.
Comparison of Vehicle Emissions for
Renewable versus Nonrenewable Sources of
Energy

Decreasing
emissions

Decreasing Decreasing
emissions emissions

Final Goal for


Vehicles!
What about Coal?
 Can we extract and use coal for fuel
without further destroying the
environment?
 Can we learn how to store the carbon to
use it later to ameliorate the plunge into
the next ice age? (More about this later.)
 Can we get liquid and/or gas for transport
fuel out of coal competitive to bioliquid
and biogas?
 Can we use coal to build the infrastructure
for sustainable energy sources?
 The U.S. national electric grid is ~45%
powered by coal. (Most of the rest is
natural gas.)
 Full Electric vehicles reduce greenhouse
emissions by 67%, even though much of
Area
between
red curve
and data
= area
between
Oil Extraction
started.
black and
red
curves.
In about
200 years
we will be
very low
in coal
extraction
.

The red curve is a fit using known 2003 recoverable reserves.


The drawn black curve is a rough “optimistic” guess about
the future.
World will have coal
to use about 100
years longer than the
U.S.

Eventual amount extracted: 100,248x10^6 Short


Tons
What about Uranium?
 ~15% of U.S. electrical energy is produced from
nuclear power plants. In France it is ~77%.
 We will probably run short within the next century.
http://afr.com/articles/2005/06/23/1119321845502.html
 Safe storage of radioactive waste for tens of thousands
of years (well into the next Major Ice Age) is a major
problem. See Deep Time by G. Benford.
 Use of uranium for Weapons of Mass Destruction, for
radioactive terrorism and in warheads of standard
weapons (Used extensively in the Gulf War, Bosnia
War, Kosovo War & Bush Iraq War) are major problems.
See:
http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/politics/WeaponsRadioactive.htm
Fit to data using known
reserves

Fit using 1.5 times


reserves

Will run out sooner than coal.


Energy Returned over Energy
Invested
Energy Source ERoEI (approximate)
Early U.S. oil 20
Early Middle East oil 30
Old oil fields 3-10
Hydropower Environment 10
al costs are
Coal 3-10
not
Nuclear considered 0-4
Wind in 10-50
calculating
Solar 5-15
these
Geothermal numbers! 13
Tar sands 2
Biofuels < 1? (current farming practices)

http://www.eroei.com/eval/net_energy_list.html
http://www.mnforsustain.org/nukpwr_tyner_g_net_energy_from_nuclear_power.htm
http://www.mnforsustain.org/nukpwr_tyner_g_net_energy_from_nuclear_power.ht
A linear fit to the world energy consumption to allow projection into
the future.
Since World population is projected to start leveling off, a constant
increase in energy use allows a modest increase in energy per capita.

The recent downturn in energy use per capita may be why


population growth is slowing.
Wind and Solar Energy Power
History
39,300 MegaWatts in 1,050 MegaWatts in
2004 2004
Growing at ~25%/year. Growing at ~30%/year.
Would take about 25 Would take about 35
years to equal total world years to equal total world
power. power.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/gwdebate.pdfWorld power
2004:
used in
http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2 ~15,000,000 MegaWatts
= 15 TeraWatts
Wind and photovoltaic power would
have to grow at 70% per year to
supply all world power in about 10
Tehachapi Pass Wind Farm,
years!
Exponential Fit to World Wind Power
A 25% rate of growth would
make World wind power equal to
World total power by 2030.
As the Earth moves into the next
Major Ice Age within a few
thousand years, winds will
increase greatly, so much more
wind power will be available.
Exponential Fit to World Photovoltaic
Power
A 31% rate of growth would
make World photovoltaic power
equal to World total power by
2037.
As the Earth moves into the next
Major Ice Age within a few
thousand years, cloudiness will
decrease greatly, so more solar
power may be available even
though insolation will be smaller.
World Total Power and Photovoltaic

30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
Wattsx10^15

17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
We are like tenant farmers chopping
down the fence around our house for
fuel when we should be using nature's
inexhaustible sources of energy - sun,
wind and tide. I'd put my money on the
sun and solar energy. What a source of
power! I hope we don't have to wait
until oil and coal run out before we
tackle that.
-- Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)
2006 Federal Tax Credits for Home Solar Energy
Installations
 Photovoltaic system or solar hot-water heater
(not for swimming pool or hot tub).
 Federal tax credit equal to 30% of the systems'
cost, up to a credit of $2,000 per system.
 Must be installed from Jan. 1, 2006 through Dec.
31, 2007.
 A two-kilowatt photovoltaic system that meets
most of the needs of a highly energy-efficient
home should cost $16,000 to $20,000 installed.
 A five-kilowatt photovoltaic system for a more
typical home should cost twice that; it would
eliminate the home’s electricity bills.
 The “Bible”: The Solar Electric House by Steven J.
Strong and William G. Scheller, 1993.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Savinganddebt/Savemoney/P126521.asp
Conservation as a Vehicle
“Fuel”
 Using proven technologies to improve
vehicle efficiency can save half of
projected 2025 use of oil in the U.S.
 The other half might be replaced by
biofuels and “saved” natural gas (more
efficient use of electricity).
 A 2025 vehicle fleet as efficient as the
best hybrid vehicles now available would
save one-sixth of projected oil use.
 See http://www.oilendgame.com and
Winning the Oil End Game by Amory
Lovins.
Global Warming next
Last Major Ice Age (120,000 years
long)
Last
Interglacial

Homo
sapiens
evolve
d in
Africa. Current
Interglacial
(more
about this
later)
Previous Glacial Maximum Glacial
Only Neanderthals
Europe in
Maximum
(10^3 Last Neanderthal in
years) Europe
• Until about ~10,000 years ago the earth was in a long ice
age for about 120,000 years, with several extreme
variations in temperature on a ~10,000 year time scale.
(There have been eight of these ice ages in the last one
million years.)
• Human beings evolved into “intelligent” animals due to
the extreme climate stresses.
• Why has it been so uniformly warm over the last
North-Pole Summer Insolation
Insolation = solar energy
striking the top of Earth’s
atmosphere.
It has been declining for
the last 11,000 years; so
why has the temperature
remained so high?

North-Pole summer insolation is an important factor


because accumulation of ice in the Arctic region is crucial
to the Major Ice Ages and summer is when the ice can
melt. Note that it peaked 11,000 years ago and will be at a
minimum in about 500 years.
Neolithic Global Warming due to Carbon Dioxide
Release

Caused by the onset of intensive


agriculture.
Neolithic Global Warming due to Methane
Release

Caused by the onset of intensive rice farming in


Anthropogenic Global Warming History and
Future
Future
Global
Warming

Normal
Interglaci Plunge into
al next ice
Age.

Modern
Global I call this
Warming “Neolithi
c global
warming
”.
Why is Global Warming
Bad?
Neolithi Future Global The fast rise in
c Global Warming temperature may
Warmin
g trigger the next major
Plung
Modern e into ice sooner than it
Global ice
would otherwise
Warmin Age.
g occur, due to
switching off Atlantic
Ocean currents.

• Rapid changes in temperature cause agriculture possibilities to switch


from one area of the world to another. Thus, many people will die due to
lack of food.
• Rapid increases in temperature cause more severe weather to occur,
such as hurricanes. Thus, many people will die (have already died!).
• Rapid increases in temperature cause the glacial ice at the North and
South Poles to melt, raising sea levels; which will flood many major cities
Hurricane Power Dissipated (PDI) vs
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in North
Atlantic

Obvious connection between


high ocean surface temperature
and hurricane power.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181#more-181
http://zfacts.com/p/49.html
Global Warming Turning off North Atlantic Ocean
Currents
 In tropics warm water evaporates, leaving greater
salt concentration in the surface water.
 Salty water travels north and becomes cooler.
 At some point the salty cool surface water
becomes more dense than the water underneath
it, so it sinks rapidly.
 When the northern ice caps melt by global
warming or otherwise, they supply fresh water into
the North Atlantic.
 At some point the water ceases to be salty enough
to sink at a specific location.
 The sinking of cold salty water is what drives the
North Atlantic Ocean Currents.
Atlantic Ocean Currents
• Brazilian coastline
These North Atlantic deflects most of the
surface Ocean
Currents are what South Equatorial
make Interglacials Current into the
warm. Notice that
there are several northern
components. hemisphere.
• Results in a large
transfer of heat from
the tropics into the
far northern
hemisphere.
• Note the several
different North
Atlantic Ocean
Currents.
• The Isthmus of
Panama keeps the
Atlantic Ocean
currents from going
into the Pacific
http://www.fiu.edu/~srimal/Currents_files/v3_document.htm
Can We Control Global Warming to Ameliorate Entry into the
Ice Age?
Controlled entry
into next ice age
by slowing the
Neolithi rate of burning
c Global fossil fuels and/or
Warmin storing the carbon
g dioxide to be
released later
more slowly.
This would give
more time for
developing the
infrastructure
needed for
humans to survive
• World population would be reduced either intentionally
in the next or
ice
otherwise. age.
• Can humans cooperate enough worldwide to peacefully
reduce population, control the rate of burning fossil fuels and
store carbon dioxide in the earth to be released at a
Last 1000 Years Earth Temperature
Data

Oil
Age

The slight drop in temperature until ~150 years ago is due to


solar insolation decreasing. The rapid rise in temperature during
the last 150 years is due to burning fossil fuels. This is expected
to continue for several hundred more years if we continue to
burn fossil fuels; unless the Atlantic Ocean current(s) are turned
Last 200 Years Earth Temperature and
Population Data

The rapid temperature increase is very similar to the rapid world population
increase.
Carbon dioxide increase behaves similarly.
Oceans contain unbalanced heat energy, which will cause atmospheric
2005 virtually tied
1998 as the warmest
year on record!
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/recordtemp2005.html

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate


Change

http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdf
Predictions for Next Two Major Ice
Ages
Current Interglacial Next Interglacial ~115,000 years from
now

Temperature will drop 3


to 4 degrees C in the
next 10,000 years.

Temperature will drop about 7 There will be shorter time


degrees C in the next 50,000
fluctuations not represented
years. by the model.

The different predictions are Arctic temperature variations are


for different models of the larger than temperate and tropics
climate. variations.
The next ice age will occur no matter whether we
quickly burn up all the fossil fuels or not. Human
beings will undoubtedly evolve greatly over the next
major ice age of about 110,000 years duration, due
to the extreme stresses of cold climate, as they did
during the last major ice age.
Triple Threats for the Human

Future
(Threat 1) Global warming unchecked will
cause great troubles.
 (Threat 2) World Petroleum extraction is
peaking.
 (Threat 3) Inevitable next ice age has been
temporarily ameliorated by Anthropogenic Global
Warming.
 Future global warming may trigger the next ice
age sooner than with only modern global warming
by turning off Atlantic ocean current(s).
 The Human Future will be much worse than the
news media and governments have been telling
you!
 It is interesting that the onset of intensive
agriculture that led to industrialization was
possible only in the interglacial just before the
next ice age.
Troubles Ahead
 Rich nations will probably not give up their dependency
on using more than their share of the world’s
resources. Rich nations may continue their killing of
people in poor nations to try to maintain the high
standard of living.
 Nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass
destruction may be used if the rich nations deem it
necessary to guarantee their access to the remaining
resources of the world.
 Suburban life will become difficult because of the
difficulty and expense of traveling large distances for
necessities. City life will become difficult because of the
energy required to bring in necessities. Mostly self
sufficient communities with surrounding farm lands are
the best bet for survival (for example: Blacksburg VA).
 Starvation will be widespread. Mass migrations from
poorer nations to richer nations will probably occur.
 Much knowledge may be lost about how to survive in a
less energy-intensive world and about how to create
better living conditions.
How Can Humans get from Now to 1000 Years from
Now?
 Eliminate nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass
destruction by all countries, including the United States (This
implies a high degree of world cooperation, not go-it-alone)
 Emphasize pre-conception birth control to try to stabilize and
peacefully bring down world population.
 Safely store knowledge for future use.
 Use energy and materials much more efficiently.
 Change from non-renewable to renewable energy sources.
 Use the remaining fossil fuels to develop infrastructure needed to
use renewable energy sources.
 Depend more on local sources of energy, food and materials.
 Recycle materials to a high degree.
 Live closer together in self-sufficient communities.
 Move from individual transportation to shared transportation
(e.g., railroads instead of interstates).
 Store carbon dioxide now in a way so that we can recover it later
to release into the atmosphere to ameliorate the plunge into the
next ice. See
http://www.arts.bev.net/roperldavid/AmeliorateGlobalWarming.pdf
Are humans informed and intelligent enough to realize these
huge problems and to do these things quickly enough?
See: The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler

Hybrids next