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Priest 5-1
Chapter 5


DETAILED DESIGN:
ANALYSIS, MODELING and PROTOTYPE
TESTING
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BEAN GUESSING WITH AN ENGINEERING
APPROACH (See handout) Dr. George A.
Hazelrigg

"The best guess depends on factors that go
beyond traditional engineering analysis to take
into account the nature of the prize and the
personal preferences of the bean counter"
(Hazelrigg, 1985).
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Engineering methods can be classified into two
groups (Hazelrigg):

1. Prototype testing
2. Mathematical modeling design analysis
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A good model is one that yields an answer that
reduces uncertainty. Any improvement in the
state of knowledge will generally have value to
the decision-maker. The cost of model
improvements, however, escalates rapidly as
one attempts to approach perfect information"
(Hazelrigg, 1985).
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Driving Time from Dallas to Austin
Levels of knowledge
1. About 4 hours from your knowledge of Texas
2. Get a map, measure distance, assume 60 mph
3. Google map, get their time estimate
4. Call a friend that has made that trip
5. Identify road repairs, traffic problems, etc.
6. Satellite GPS with radio traffic updates
You still do not know exactly how long it will take

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Trade-off Between Cost and More
Information
Diminishing returns
Schedule impacts
Imperfect analyses, tolerances
For example, EPA air quality model has a tolerance of 20%,
thermal analysis 10%
Unexpected situations road work
Risk taking and risk tolerance
How many assumptions and risks do you make when
you make a decision? How could you get more
information? What would it cost?
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Transformation of:
Data to Information to Knowledge to Actionable
Knowledge
Data is raw
Knowledge include rules of thumb, published
standards, textbooks, databases, and results from
analysis, modeling, simulation, testing and best
practices.


Making Better Decisions
Our goal is to make better decisions in real
world
Where better is:
More correct (closer to optimum)
Efficient (cost)
Fast
Robust to noise and uncertainty
Sometimes unique or innovative
Less technical risk
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Model Examples
Circuit analysis (Spice) - EE
Finite element analysis ME and thermal
Six Sigma Manufacturing and design
Simulation
Linear programming
Neural networks
Global warming
Weather
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Problems with Models in Real World
Lack of understanding and complexity of phenomena
Uncertainty and unknown
Random phenomena
Poor, incorrect and missing data and models
No time, lack of resources
Dynamic
Too simple or complex
Bias and preconceptions
All of these were present for Hurricane Katrina



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Key Decision Environment Parameters
1. Deterministic
2. Risk Probabilistic, Some idea of a probability that
an event will occur. It may or may not occur. Think
lotto.
3. Uncertainty uncertain as to probabilities
4. Dynamic When data is changing over time, Can
be change in environment, random (stochastic),
chaos (chaos theory), or trends (creep, drift)
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Decision Models
Objective (goal):
What do I want to maximize (circuit performance,
quality levels) or minimize (cost, time, risk)
Can have one or many
Constraints:
Money, time, capacity, energy knowledge, culture
(often called resources)
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Some use term value I want the best
performing car for the money
What is best?
What is performance?
What level of money?

We must quantify for particular application
Best could be gas mileage, acceleration, resale value,
reliability, low mileage, stylistic, prestige
Level of money could vary form $2000 to $200,000
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Iterative Series of Complex Analyses and
Evaluations That Considers All Parameters,
Disciplines to meet design requirements
Push the limits of innovation and creativity
Reduce technical risk
Design analysis, modeling, simulation, and
prototypes are used to make informed decisions.
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BEST PRACTICES FOR DD (1 of 2)

Design analyses and trade-off studies
All disciplines. are included
Design synthesis and high-level design tools.
Modeling and simulation
Analyses contain sufficient detail to accurately
model the real world including:
Variability and uncertainty
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BEST PRACTICES FOR DD (2 of 2)
Analyses contain sufficient detail to accurately
model the real world including:
Variability and uncertainty
Worst-case, parameter variation, and statistical
analyses of parameters
Aging
Active stress reduction including mechanical,
thermal, and environmental.
Failure modes analysis such as failure modes and
effects analysis (FMEA) production failure modes
analysis (PFMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA).
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Mechanical Design
Functional design
Terms of mechanical relationships and
engineering calculations
Each function must be addressed
Use CAD which uses geometric descriptions
and modeling constraints
Shaft is a circle extruded along a line
How to specify circularity
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Material Selection
Picking the right plastic
There are 50,000 grades of commercial plastics on
the market
They pick one or two suppliers and look at
manufacturers data sheets
Compare mechanical and physical properties
Identify a few likely candidates
How close to the right plastic for their application?
Not very. Design News, 2-3-04.
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Best software design practices include (1 of 2):
Customer and user focused design
Technical risk management and measurement
Simplification
Design for change and revisions
Scalability and reproducible design
Module reuse and standardization
Evolutionary prototyping
Prototyping and human factors to define user
requirements, user interfaces and software interfaces
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(2 of 2)
Traceability to requirements
Emphasis on testability
Independent design reviews and testing
Good documentation
Design reliability emphasizes robustness, fault avoidance,
tolerance detection, and recovery
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WHEN PROTOTYPES ARE NEEDED IN
DETAILED DESIGN:
1. Information that is not available
2. Software and human interfaces
3. Global and cultural design aspects
4. Innovative or creative products that are very
different from the norm
5. Unknown uses or environments
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HIGH-LEVEL DESIGN TOOLS

Design synthesis uses high abstract level description to
develop physical representations. The future!!

Synthesis is currently used in integrated circuit (IC) and
application specific integrated circuit (ASIC) design.

Whats next?
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Development Tools Keep Pace with Silicon
R. Nass, Portable Design, p. 26, August, 2004
Processor is only as good as the tools supporting it
Mix of tools from vendor and third party vendors
Some market analysis shows that tools are more
important in a designers selection criteria than the
processor itself J. Herskowitz, Analog Devices
Analogs visual DSP has a feature that lets the
designer inform the complier about how to best
make decisions on compilation strategies based on
an applications representative data sets

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Simulation
Systems Engineering
Jim Hinderer
Texas Instruments
TI Fellow
Systems Engineering Professor at SMU
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Reasons for simulation include:
1. Increase the level of knowledge of how the product
interacts with its environment
2. Assess the benefits, costs, and attributes of each
requirement
3. Perform design trade-off studies to optimize various
design elements, such as performance, producibility, and
reliability
4. Verify that the design can meet all requirements
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Several properties characterize simulation are:

Realistic and correct
Useful and usable
Well-planned, well-managed, and well-coordinated
User acceptance
Favorable benefits-cost ratio
Modular, flexible, and expandable
Transportable
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SIMULATION METHODOLOGY
Step 1. Define the System and Environment
Step 2. List the System Unknowns and How They Are to Be
Resolved
Step 3. List Effects of the Environment
Step 4. Define How the Environment Affects the System
Step 5. Define Needed Simulations and a Simulation Plan
Step 6. Create the Simulation
Step 7. Verify the Simulation
Step 8. Implement and Maintain the Simulation
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Aircraft Landing System Example
Key design issues

1. How many frames of imagery are required?
2. How many picture elements (pixels) are needed per frame?
3. What effect does the sensor signal-to-noise ratio have on
the detection?
4. How do other objects in the scene influence the detection
system?
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Variation: Design parameters can vary due to:
Design variability or risk (e.g. precision, interaction
between parts)
Manufacturing variability (e.g. tolerance, vendor)
Effects of stress and time (e.g. stress failures, aging)
Uncertainty (e.g. unknown data, incorrect models, unknown
product uses, part interactions, environment)
User and use variability (e.g. number of customers, skill
level)
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Worst-case analysis is a rigorous evaluation of the
ability of a design to meet requirements under the
worst possible combination of circumstances..

Parameter variation analysis method is a less
rigorous methodology that determines allowable
parameter variation before a design fails
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Statistical analysis models use statistical methods for
determining allowable parameter variations.

Root Sum Square (RSS) Statistical normal probability
distributions.
Assembly Shift and Component Drift Based on
6-Sigma.
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Discussion
What tolerance method should be used in
which environment?
Aircraft safety
Bank teller response time
Your retirement
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Aging is the change in performance over long periods
of time. Figure 5.4.

Two ways to design for these effects.

1. Control the products use to preclude or minimize any
parameter stress outside specified limits.
2. Design sufficient margins or flexibility into the
design. (plan for aging effects)
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STRESS ANALYSIS
Design's reliability or failure rate can be improved in
3 ways:

1. Increase average strength.
2. Decrease the level of stress.
3. Decrease variations of stress and strength.
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Stress in this context is used in the broadest sense.
Introduced by manufacturing, test, shipping,
environment, users, disposal, and other products.
Hardware, the three major types of stress are
mechanical, thermal, and electrical.
Problems include creep, deformation, material
instability, temperature cycling stresses, and burnout.

Having a truck crash can be stress on logisitcs

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Major design steps for reducing the effects of stress
are as follows:
Determine and understand all stress potentials that may be
caused by product use and environment.
Eliminate or reduce the level of stress when possible.
Design a system that can adequately withstand all levels of
stress.
test that the design can adequately meet all areas of
stress.
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Electrical stresses are caused by the level of power,
current, voltage, and power cycling.
For electronics, the most important stress is
temperature
For software and electronic commerce, stress
analysis focuses on bandwidth, user traffic volume,
types of user traffic, and computing resources.
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ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS

Anticipating the expected environmental stresses and their
effects on both individual parts and the product.

Temperature is the most common environmental stress
that affects electronic parts.

High-humidity environments, which are extremely
corrosive.
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Thermal
Fans in computers
Why?
This lecture is about the approach.
For mechanical parts the worry might be
weight, stress, etc.
For purchasing, the concern might be shipping
Fans in computers
Why?
This lecture is about the approach.
For mechanical parts the worry might be
weight, stress, etc.
For purchasing, the concern might be shipping
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Heat Transfer
Conduction touch transfer
Convection air transfer
Radiant

Nothing effects electronic reliability more than
thermal
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Common failure modes include:
no signal,
surge currents,
intermittent shorts,
changes in resistance or capacitance,
mechanical failure.
Note we have already covered this ground in
technical risk assessment and in FMEA
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Thermal analysis attempts to improve reliability by
controlling two major types of temperature related
failures:
1. High temperatures on electronic components and
2. Thermal expansion between different materials
resulting in stress fractures. (TCE)
3.Low temperatures and extreme changes in temperature,
often-called thermal shock.
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The primary design methods to improve thermal
performance are:
1. Part derating (use stronger parts)
2. Part selection and location
3. Improve thermal conduction by reducing thermal
resistance (get rid of stress)
4. Lower surrounding temp using convection
(reduce level of stress on parts)
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Electronic Part Derating

One method for high reliability is to set requirements high
enough to compensate for uncertainty, variability, and
aging.

Derating criteria that could be used for the notebook
computer as listed in the U.S. Department of Defense
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Part Selection and Location

The best design approach is to select parts that are

1.) Not heat sensitive,
2.) Do not produce abnormally large amounts of
heat and
3.)Can help improve thermal conduction. by minimizing
a component's case to thermal sink resistance.

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FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS

Extremely complex design technique, which uses
mathematical techniques for predicting the stress and its
effect on the physical behavior of a system.
Used by mechanical engineers
Used for mechanical stresses and thermal stresses or
temperature flows

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Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA)
Technique for evaluating and reducing the effects caused
by potential failure modes. Murphys Law is that If
something can go wrong, it will.

Manufacturing process FMEA (PFMEA) focuses on the
processes and vendors failure modes.

"bottom-up" approach.

Knowledge of the failure modes of each item or process
is then used to determine the effect of each failure mode.
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John R. Grout 5-56
Fault Tree Basics
OR
Top Event
AND
Basic
Failure
#1
P(F
1
)=.1
Basic
Failure
#2
P(F
2
)=.1
Basic
Failure
#3
P(F
3
)=.05
Basic
Failure
#4
P(F
4
)=.05
Minimal Cut Set 1
MCS 2 MCS 3
P(F
1
F
2
)= P(F
1
)*P(F
2
)=.01
P(top event)= P(F
1
F
2
)+ P(F
3
)+P(F
4
)=.11
John
Grout
John R. Grout 5-57
Converting Undesired Failures
to Benign Failures (after)
Or
Electricity not
reaching motor
motor unable to
turn properly
table saw
turned on
prematurely
Or
Or
And
wrench left
on spindle
nut
not
plugged in
excessive
friction
inadequate
lubrication
anti-kickback
blade guard
not mounted
blade insert
not mounted
properly
B1
B4
B2
Or
Benign failure
Undesired failure
Or
break in electrical
connection
Operator
forgets to
plug in
B3
B3A B4A
B5
broken wire
in electric
cord
Table saw motor
will not operate
John
Grout
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TABLE 5.3 Sample Failure Mode Distributions

Part type Major failure modes Occurrence (%)
Bearings Lubrication loss 45
Contamination 30
Misalignment 5
Brinelling 5
Corrosion 5
Capacitor Open circuit 35
Electrolytic Short circuit 35
Leakage 10
Decrease in capacitance 5
Connectors Shorts 30
Solder joint (mechanical) 25
Insulation resistance 20
Contact resistance 10
Miscellaneous mechanical 15
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DETAILED DESIGN OF GLOBAL SOFTWARE
Converting software for different languages
Differences in language enter (English 5 characters)
Length of variables
Placement on screen boxes etc.