Probability

Probability
Chapter-3
ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 1
What is the chance that

the sales will decrease if,
the price is increased ?
What is the chance that
 Indians will not live after
the age of 65 years ?
What is the likelihood that
the driving will be safe on
Indian roads ?
Probability
• What are the chances that sales
decrease if we increase the
price ?
• Likelihoo • What is the likelihood the new
method will result in high
d •
productivity ?
What are the odds in favour of a new
• Chance •
investment being profitable ?
What is the likelihood the driving will
be safe on Indian roads ?
• Possibilit • What are the chances that Indian
y will not live after 65 years of
age ?
• What are the chances that TV serials

telecasted between 8 & 9 P.mwill
be seen by the family ?
• ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 5
Probability
• What are the chances that sales
decrease if we increase the
price ?
describing the• What
chance that
is the likelihood the newthe
method eve
high
will result in
productivity ?
• What are the odds in favour of a new
investment being profitable ?
• driving
What is the likelihood the
will be safe on
Indian roads ?
• What are the chances that
Indians will not

live after 65
Probability
• Probability • Probability values are

is the assigned on a scale
from 0 to 1
Likelihood
that an
 Or
event will • Measured in
percentage
occur
•
Probability
0 0. 1
5
Probability
Uncertain Certain
50 : 50
Chance
Equally Likely
0
Probability-Quiz 1
Unlikely Likel
Uncertain 50 : 50 y Certain
Chance
Equally Likely
• Match the following with the above Chances
1. Today is Monday . Tomorrow is Tuesday
2. It will rain today
3. Tomorrow We can travel by Metro Train in Bangalore
4. Every Monday morning there will be heavy traffic on
the Bangalore Roads
5. Everybody will die at the age of 85
6.
Probability- Terminology
• Experiment: • Randomly Selecting

 An activity that takes a Student based
place on the sex
• Outcomes: • Possible outcomes
Ø One of the possible
1. Boy
results of an experiment.
2. Girl
Ø The experiment will
result in exactly one 
outcome.  Randomly Selecting a Student

• Events: who is a boy
Experiments Outcomes
 Specifically defined 
outcome that is of particular Election

Win , Loss
interest to us Examination Pass , Fail
Selling Purchase , no Purchase
Playing cricket Win, Loss, Tie
Toss a coin
ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in
Head , Tail
10
Probability Rules
Measuring Probability
P(Event) = Number of ways the event could occur
Total number of outcomes
e  once 1 Experiment:
) what is the probability of 5 showing
Step-1: Find the? Total
or number of
2 ) what is the chance possible
that theoutcome
number 5 will be shown ? o
of the
 Roll3a die which
) How much percentageexperiment
of an experiment will result in n
has six sides with
each side showing 
one number from

, theoretically we 1can say we

that
may get
, 17
either
% of5 or
the the
to 6 and with each number 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or
l result in other
side showing a numbers .
number 6 on rolling the die.
Therefore total number of possible
different number. outcomes are 6.
 Event: 
 If we define an  Step-2: Find the number of ways the
event as the event could occur
number 5 showing, 
what
he die once is the
1 ) what is the probability of 5 On
 showing ? the
rolling or die the
probability2of ) what
this is the chance
numberthat the number 5 occur
5 will will be
in show
3 ) How much percentage of way
only one an experiment will result
event happening ?
 ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in

12

Measuring Probability- Quiz
 Experiment:
 Roll a die which has
• Total number of outcomes
le outcomes of an
six sides with experiment
each side • is called
showing one number
bability
fromof 1all to 6the andoutcomes
with of an experiment =
• P(Number 1)1 . = 1/6
ll ) = 0 .for
space 167 + 0this
. 167 + 0rolling
. 167 + 0 . 167 die
+ 0 . 167 + 0 . 167
experiment is : S = [ 1 , 2 , 3 ,
each side showing a =0.167
different number.
• P(Number 2) = 1/6
Event:
=0.167
e  having
1. whatequal
is the probability or chanc
• P(Number 3) = 1/6
outcomes are
probability of called
number 1 Equally Like
=0.167
showing?
 2. what is the • P(Number 4) = 1/6
probability of number 2 =0.167
showing?
• P(Number 6) = 1/6
3. what is the
=0.167

probability of number 3
showing? •
 4. what is the ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 13
Quiz
• http://www.bbc.co.uk/skillswise/numbers
•
 Experiment:
 Roll a die which
has six sides with •
each side showing • P(Odd Number) = 3/6
one number from 1
to 6 and with each =0.5
side showing a • P(Even Number)= 3/6
different number. =0.5
 Event: •
 1. what is the
probability of
showing odd
number ?
 2. what is the
probability of ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 15
showing even number
 Experiment:
 Roll a die which has
six sides with each side•
showing one number • P(Greater than 3) = 3/6
from 1 to 6 and with
=0.5
each side showing a
different number. •
 Event: • P(Less than 5) = 4/6
 1. what is the =0.33
probability of showing
numbers greater than 3 ?
 2. what is the
probability of showing
numbers less than 5 ?
 3. What is the ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 16
Complement ofis an
n t E is ca lle d C o m p le m e n t of that event . Complement
denoted
Event
Event-1. probability of

showing numbers greater

than 3
 Experiment: Complement of this event is
 Roll a die which = probability of not

showing numbers greater
has six sides with than 3
each side showing P(Number showing >3 ) =
one number from 1 3/6 = 0.5

to 6 and with each P(Not showing number>3)
side showing a = 1-0.5 =0.5

different number. 
Event:
Event-2. probability of
showing numbers less
 1. what is the than 3
probability of showing Complement of this event is
numbers greater than 3 ? = probability of not

 2. what is the showing numbers less
than 3
probability of showing P ( E ’ ) = 1 -P ( E )
P(Number showing <3 ) =
numbers less than 5ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in
? 17
2/6 = 0.33
Joining Two Or more Events
Ø Addition
Rule
1 . M u tu a lly E x clu siv e E v e n ts
2 . N o t M u tu a lly E x clu siv e E v e n ts
ØMultiplication Rule
1 . Independent Events
2 . Dependent Events
Mutually Exclusive Events
M u tu a lly e x clu siv e
e v•e n t A h a p p e n s B ca n n o t h a p p e n O r V ice - v e
•
•
A B C D
Mutually Exclusive Not Mutually Exclusive

Events Events
Mutually exclusive
o not have common outcome the events are mutu
Mutually Exclusive Events
M u tu a lly e x clu siv e Not Mutually Exclusive
n o•§If
t h atwo
p p eevents
n . have common outcome the events are
p p•§eCn occurs or mD e occurs
a t th e sa tim e or both c & D occurs simulta
B •w ill n o t o ccu r( w ill n o t h a v e c o m m o n o u tco m e )
C D
Mutually Exclusive
Events
A B Not Mutually Exclusive
Events
C. Sun arises in the
A .Sun arises in the morning .
morning . D . Young couple goes
B .Sun sets in the for a walk
evening
Hat is the
What is the probability of selecting a

King ?
What is the probability of selecting a Queen
?
or King ?
or Black ?
Joint Probability - Quiz
• The Outcome of Find the result of joining

the following events:

Event E= {3,4,6}
What will be the result
1. E&F = Nil if either of th
time ?
Event F= {2,5,7} 2. F&G = { 2 , 5 }
Event G= {1,2,5}
3. G&H = Nil
4. E&G = Nil
Event H= {8,9,6}
5. E&H = { 6 }
Find the following are 6. F&H = Nil
mutually 7. F or E=
exclusive or not: {=2 ,{52, 7, 5, 3, 7, 4, 1, }
M u tu a lly 8. F or G
1. E & F EN xoclu 6}
t M siv
u tue a lly 9. G or H =
2. F&G EM xuclutu asiv
llye 10.E or G {=1{, 22 ,,55 ,,87 ,,93 ,,64 }, 6 }
3. G&H EM xuclu
tu asiv
llye 11.E or H = { 3 ,4 ,6 ,8 ,9 }
4. E&G E x clu siv e 12.F or H
N o t M u tu a lly =
5. E&H ME xuclu
tu asiv
llye 
{ 2 ,5 ,7 ,8 ,9 ,6 }
6. F&H E x clu siv e 
7. Events that an individual 1.

is: ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 22


tio n s : E ith e r AW hoa tr wBill b e th e re su lt if e ith e r o f th e e v e n t to
The Addition Rule-1

 Not Mutually Exclusive

Mutually Exclusive 
 1. P(A U B) = P(A) 1. P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)


+ P(B) – P(A B)
 P(A or B ) = P(A) + P(B) –
 P(A or B) = P(A and B)
P(A) + P(B)
P ro b a b ility o f g e ttin g e ith e r2. P(A or B or C ) = P(A) +R eP(B)
m ove
R e2.
d OP(A orck
r B la B Cor C) ?= P(A)
a rd +P(C) – P(A and B) - nP(A
o .2
+P(B)+P(C ) and C) – P(C and B) – re d
2 ca rd s
B la ck P(A and
R ed B and C)
R ed

 2
2 2
C a r C a rd

C a r 2
2

d • d
•
A ll re a d a n d A ll B la ck A ll R e d ca rd s w ith o u t
C a rd s N u m b e r 2 re d C a rd s a n d
Addition Rule-1 -Quiz
Card is selected from 52 car
is M u tu a lly E x clu siv e e v e n t a n d m a tch th e fo rm
1. What is the probability

1. P(A or B ) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and
that it is either a king B
or a Queen ?
2. What is the probability 2. P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B)
that it is either a king
or a Ace ?
3. What is the probability 3. P(A U B) = P(A)+P(B)
that it is either a Red4. P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)
or number 1 ?
that it is either a Ace
or a number2 ?
io n s : B o th A a n dW hBa t w ill b e th e re su lt if b o th e v e n ts to
The Addition Rule-2

 Not Mutually Exclusive

Mutually Exclusive


 1. P(A B) = 0  1. P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) –

P(A U B)
 P(A and B) = 0
 P(A and B ) = P(A) + P(B)
2. P(A and B and C) = 0

– P(A or B)
2. P(A and B and C ) = P(A) +

P(B) +P(C) – P(A or B) -
 P(A or C) – P(C or B) –
P(A 2
R eord B or C)
• R ed B la ck 
2
2
C ar 2
C ar C a rd

2
2
d • d
A ca rd w ith B o th re a d & B la ck R ed and N um ber

C o lo r w ill n o t b e a v a ila b le ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in Tw o 25
Addition Rule-2 -Quiz
Card is selected from 52 car
is M u tu a lly E x clu siv e e v e n t a n d m a tch th e fo r

that it is both a king1. P(A and B ) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A or B
and Queen ?
that it is both a king
2. P(A and B ) = 0
and Black ? 3. P(A B) = 0
4. P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A U B)
that it is both a Red or
number 1 ?
that it is both Ace or a
number2 ?
that it is both number
Multiplication Rule
Independent & Conditional Events
Independent Event
 Conditional Event
b a b ility o f a n e v e n t o ccu rrin g w ill b e g e t a ffe cte d b y

t o ccu rrin g w ill n o t b e g e t a ffe cte d b y o th e r e v e n ts .
• •
• •
• Example: •
• The probability of a • Example:
person buying a MBA
Scanner is not affected • The probability of a
by gender. person buying a
MBA Scanneris
• Hence the event ‘Buying
affected by the
a MBA Scanner’ is not specialisation.
affected by the other
event ‘ male/female • Hence the event
buyer’ ‘Buying a MBA
Scanner’ is affected
• Hence the event ‘Buying
by the other event
a MBA Scanner’ is
‘marketing /Finance
independent of the
Conditional Events
 If we have two events A

& B the probability P
(A|B) is the Conditional
probability of A given
B.
 That is the probability
that the event A occurs
when we know that B
has occurred.
cu rs when we know th a t ‘ B ’ h a s o ccu rre d is co n d itio n a l
Conditional
Probability
• In a game suppose your
opponent has thrown a
dice and you have not
seen the result . Throwing
6 is the winning criteria .
We define :
Event A: Throw is a number 6
1. P(Throw is a number 6)= 1/6 =

16%
3. Opponent has 16% chance to win
Now the opponent says he had
thrown an even number.
Hence we define :
Event B: Throw is an even number
1. Possible outcomes are 2,4,6

2. 6 is one among the outcomes –
Event A ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 30
3. The conditional probability of
Independent & Conditional Events
- Quiz
• F in d In d e p e n d e n t o r C o n d itio n a l E v e n ts
• 1. An individual has high IQ. An individual is
selected for university post
• 2. A student plays chess. A student is good
at Maths
• 3. A student plays Table - Tennis. A student
is good at Maths
• 4. Today it rains. Today is Tuesday
Calculating Independent & Conditional
Probabilities
• Independent • Conditional
Probability Probability
• If two events A & B are •( AIf|Btwo events are
independent then the P ) = P ( A a nd B ) / P ( B
probability that they P ( A |Bdependent
) = P( A B ) / P ( B )
P ( A both
a n doccur
B ) =is:P ( A ) * P ( B )
P ( A a n d B ) = P ( A ) * P ( A |B
P ( A ,•B a n d C ) = P ( A ) * P ( B ) * P ( C )
Theoretical Distributions
 Suppose we wish to know the
chances of a person having an
accident while travelling by a car
on the NICE road, what should we
do ?
Ø Should we ask a person to travel on the
NICE road by a car till he met with an
accident and get killed ?
Ø Should we repeat experiments in the
Lab ?
Use theoretical

Probability Distributions
to find out the chances
of an accident .
Ø
Ø How do the outcomes are expected to vary ?
Ø Many situations reflect the behavior of these
Probability distributions.
Ø ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 34
1.Normal Distribution
2.Binomial Distribution
3.Poisson Distribution

eoretical Distributions - Definitio
 Random Variable:
A random variable is a function that associates
real numbers 0,1,2,….with each element in the
sample space.
Notations :
Capital letters X,Y,Z…. – Random Variable
Small letters x,y,z….. - one

Draw 2 balls and of
thethe value
Outcome of be
should a
random variable red balls , Do not replace the balls taken
out from the box :
Trials Outcome ( Sample Random Variable - Y
1. Space
RR ) 2
2. RB 1
3. BR 1
4. BB 0
eoretical Distributions - Definitio
 Probability Distribution:
The set of ordered pairs ( x, f(x) ) is the Probability

distribution of the random variable X if, for each

possible outcome x,
1. f(x) >= 0,
2. Sum of f(x)=1 for Drw
each2 xballs
and and the Outcome should be
3. P( X= x ) = f(x) red balls :
TrialsOutcome X Probability of X = f(x)

1. RR 2 ¼ = P( X= 2 red =x )= f(2)>0
2. RB 1 ¼ = P( X= 1 red = x )= f(1)>0
3. BR 1 ¼ = P( X= 1 red = x )= f(1)>0
4. BB 0 ¼ = P( X= 0 red = x )= f(o)=0
Sum of f(x) = 1
T h e o re tica l D istrib u tio n s
NOTATIONS of Theoretical
Distributions:
Mean – μ
Standard Deviation - σ
Binomial Experiments
Case-1
• A sales man may or may not sell a
product
Case-2
• A consumer survey may reflect

whether consumers like to buy a
product or not

Ø There are only 2 answers to the

above experiments.(Discrete)
Ø One answer can be called Success
Binomial Experiments
Ø If we wish to know the number of
Successes or Failures occurring
in n independent trials we have
to use Binomial Experiments.
B in o m ia l D istrib u tio n s
Many situations involve ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ type of

answers.
Ø A sales man may or may not sell his products
Ø A student may or may not pass in a subject
Ø A product may or may not be defective
Ø
Ø These type of situations involve only two answers
Ø Experiments involving these type of situations are
called Binomial Experiments
Ø The results of these experiments follow Binomial
Distribution
Properties of Binomial Distribution :

( Bernoulli Process )
1.The experiment consists of a sequence of n
identical trials
2.Each trial has only two possible outcomes –
Success / Failure
3.The probability of the outcomes of any trial is
same
4.The outcome of one trial does not affect the
Binomial Distributions - Definition

 A Bernoulli trial can result in a success
with probability p and a failure with
probability q= 1-p . Then the
probability distribution of the binomial
random variable r , the number of
successes in n independent trials, is

P ro b a b ility d istrib u tio n
fo rm u la is :
P - P ro b a b ility o f
Sq -u cce
P ro ssb a b ility o f
nfa- ilu
N urem = b e1r- op f tria ls
in o mur-nia l D istrib u tio n w e a re in te re ste d in n u m b
Nd ue mrtab ke er no f su cce sse s
d e sire d
Properties of S te p - 1 : F in d th e D istrib u tio n ty p e :
Binomial 1 . N o . o f o u tco m e : H e a d o r ta il
Distribution2 . N o . o f tria ls : 5 co in s a re to sse d
1. Only two 3 . P ro b . O f o u tco m e : 5 0 % ch a n ce fo r e a ch t
possible 4 . In d e p e n d e n t o u tco m e : Y e s
outcomes. S o it is B in o m ia l D istrib u tio n
S te p - 2 : A p p ly F o rm u la :
2. Experiment has n
r= 3 ; n = 5 , p = 0 . 5 , q = 0 . 5
trials
3. Prob. Of outcome
P ( h e a d =3 ) = 1 0 / 3 2
to be equal for
all trials.
e 4.
to sse d 6 4 tim e s . In h o w m a n y to sse s w o u ld y o u e x p
Independent
outcome. ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 45
P o isso n D istrib u tio n s

Experiments yielding number of outcomes in one

time interval or in a specific region are called

Poisson experiments.
The time interval may be a Day, Year, Hour etc….
The Specific Region may be Acre, Page, etc….
Eg. 1. No.Of Telephone calls per hour
 2. No.of days college closed

 3. No. of errors per page
 4. No. of cars crossing Bangalore
The number X of outcomes occurring during a
Poisson Experiment is called Poisson

Poisson Distributions - Definition

The Probability distribution of the Poisson

random variable X, representing the number

of outcomes occurring in a given time interval
or a specified region t, is :

P ( x ) – Probability of occurrences in an
interval
μ - ( Mu )- Average number of outcomes
per unit time , distance , area or
volume .
t - Specific time
e = 2 . 71828ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 47

Properties of Poisson Distribution
1. Poisson distribution Number describes
discrete occurrences over a specific time
interval
2. The expected number of occurrences must be
constant for all the time interval of same

length

3. The probability of an occurrence is the same

for any two intervals of equal length.
4. The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any
interval is independent of the occurrence or

nonoccurrence inManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in
any other interval 48

Properties of Poisson
Distribution
S te p - 1 : F in d th e D istrib u tio n ty p e :
1. Poisson distribution
1 . N o . o f o ccu rre n ce in a tim e p e rio d sh o u ld b e e q u a l : 4
describes number of
2 . In doccurrences
discrete e p e n d e n t e v e n ts ? : Yes
S o ittime
over a specific is P o isso n D istrib u tio n
interval
S te p - 2 : A p p ly F o rm u la :
2. The expected number of
μ = mean
occurrences must be =4 , x = 6
constant for all the time
P ( 6of) same
interval = 0 .length
104
3. The probability of an occurrence
is the same for any two

intervals of equal length.

4. The occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any
p a ssin g thisroindependent
interval u g h a coofu n te r in 1 M illise co n d is 4 . W h a t
the occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any other
interval

 Tables of the Poisson Distribution Function
• r=0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17
• mean
mean
• 3.50 0.0302 0.1359 0.3208 0.5366 0.7254 0.8576 0.9347 0.9733
0.9901 0.9967 0.9990 0.9997 0.9999 3.50
• 3.55 0.0287 0.1307 0.3117 0.5259 0.7160 0.8509 0.9308 0.9713
0.9893 0.9963 0.9989 0.9997 0.9999 3.55
• 3.60 0.0273 0.1257 0.3027 0.5152 0.7064 0.8441 0.9267 0.9692
0.9883 0.9960 0.9987 0.9996 0.9999 3.60
• 3.65 0.0260 0.1209 0.2940 0.5046 0.6969 0.8372 0.9225 0.9670
0.9873 0.9956 0.9986 0.9996 0.9999 3.65
• 3.70 0.0247 0.1162 0.2854 0.4942 0.6872 0.8301 0.9182 0.9648
0.9863 0.9952 0.9984 0.9995 0.9999 3.70
•
• 3.75 0.0235 0.1117 0.2771 0.4838 0.6775 0.8229 0.9137 0.9624
0.9852 0.9947 0.9983 0.9995 0.9999 3.75
• 3.80 0.0224 0.1074 0.2689 0.4735 0.6678 0.8156 0.9091 0.9599
0.9840 0.9942 0.9981 0.9994 0.9998 3.80
• 3.85 0.0213 0.1032 0.2609 0.4633 0.6581 0.8081 0.9044 0.9573
0.9828 0.9937 0.9979 0.9993 0.9998 0.9999 3.85
• 3.90 0.0202 0.0992 0.2531 0.4532 0.6484 0.8006 0.8995 0.9546
0.9815 0.9931 0.9977 0.9993 0.9998 0.9999 3.90
• 3.95 0.0193 0.0953 0.2455 0.4433 0.6386 0.7929 0.8945 0.9518
0.9801 0.9925 0.9974 0.9992 0.9998 0.9999 3.95
•
• 4.00 0.0183 0.0916 0.2381 0.4335 0.6288 0.7851 0.8893 0.9489
0.9786 0.9919 0.9972 0.9991 0.9997 0.9999 4.00
• 4.05 0.0174 0.0880 0.2309 0.4238 0.6191 0.7773 0.8841 0.9458
0.9771 0.9912 0.9969 0.9990 0.9997 0.9999 4.05
http://www.jcu.edu/math/isep/Quincunx/Quincunx.html

http://www.portfoliomonkey.com/flash/galtonboard/galtonboard.html

M o st fre q u e n tly th e b a lls fa ll to ce n tre


o f th e g ra p h 
N o rm a l
Normal Distributions -
Properties
Properties of Normal Distribution:


1. B e ll – S h a p e d G ra p h
2. S ym m e trica l a b o u t ce n tre
lin e
3. Ta il o f th e cu rve exte n d s
fro m + ∞ to - ∞
4. M e a n is lo ca te d in th e
ce n tre
5. T h e h ig h e st p o in t is a t
m ean
6. S ta n d a rd D e via tio n
d e te rm in e s th e w id th o f
th e cu rve
7. M e a n = M e d ia n = M o d e
8. T h e a re a b e tw e e nManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in
th eN o rm a l 52
M ean
9.68 - 95 - 99 . 7 Rule M ean=
15
L o w e r Ta il U p p e r Ta il
Size of Tail M± M ± 1.96 M ± 2.58

1. No. of Data in Central 1Std.
68 S
95 S
99
range
2. No. of Data in two tails 32 5 1
(Both
3. No. )of Data in two tails 16 2.5 0.5
(Each )
Probability of 1 0.68 0.95 0.99
Probability of 2 0.32 0.05 0.01
Normal Distributions-
Properties
Properties of Normal Distribution:


10. The Normal Probability
function is :
Normal
Curve
Standard Normal Distribution
ØA ra n d o m v a ria b le th a t Standard Normal
Distribution
h a s n o rm a l d istrib u tio n % of Data Val
w ith
m e a n = 0 a n d S . D = 1 is
ca lle d S ta n d a rd N o rm a l
D istrib u tio n .
ØT h is ra n d o m v a ria b le is
n o te d a s Z
ØT h e p ro b a b ility th a t th e Z
Probability of Z value betwe
v a lu e lie b e tw e e n tw o Mean
in te rv a ls is ca lcu la te d b y
co m p u tin g th e a re a
u n d e r th e n o rm a l
cu rv e o v e r th a t in te rv a l
ØT h e S ta n d a rd N o rm a l
D istrib u tio n Ta b ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in
le is 55
Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359
0.1
0.2
0.0398
0.0793
0.0438
0.0832
0.0478
0.0871 S ta n d a rd N o rm a l D istrib u ti
0.0517
0.0910
0.0557
0.0948
0.0596
0.0987
0.0636
0.1026
0.0675
0.1064
0.0714
0.1103
0.0753
0.1141
t is th e p ro b a b ility th a t th e Z v a lu e is a t m o st - 2 . 1 3 ?
0.3
0.4
0.1179
0.1554
0.1217
0.1591
0.1255
0.1628
0.1293
0.1664
0.1331
0.1700
0.1368
0.1736
0.1406
0.1772
0.1443
0.1808
0.1480
0.1844
0.1517
0.1879
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549
0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852
0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
t is th e p ro
0.9
1.0
W bhaabtility
0.3159
0.3413
is thth
0.3186
0.3438
e ap trothb ea bZility
0.3212
0.3461
0.3238
0.3485
v a luthe ais
0.3264
0.3508
t th
0.3289
0.3531
a teleZa vst
0.3315
0.3554
a lu
2 .e1 3is ?b e
0.3340
0.3577
0.3365
0.3599
0.3389
0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177
1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319
is th e p ro Wb ahbaility
1.5
1.6
0.4332
0.4452
t is th
0.4345
0.4463
th ea tp th
0.4357
0.4474
ro eb aZb vility
0.4370
0.4484
a lu ethisa tleth
0.4382
0.4495
0.4394
0.4505
sse th
Z av na lu
0.4406
0.4515
- 2e . is
0.4418
0.4525
1 3 b?e
0.4429
0.4535
0.4441
0.4545
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
is th e p ro bWa bhility
2.1
2.2
0.4821
0.4861 a t isththaet th
0.4826
0.4864
0.4830
0.4868p ro
e bZa vb aility
0.4834
0.4871 lu e th
0.4838
0.4875 is abte th
0.4842
0.4878 tw ee Ze nv a- 1lu&
0.4846
0.4881
0.4850
0.4884 e 1is ?b
0.4854
0.4887
0.4857
0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
2.4 0.4918 0.4920 0.4922 0.4925 0.4927 0.4929 0.4931 0.4932 0.4934 0.4936
2.5 0.4938 0.4940 0.4941 0.4943 0.4945 0.4946 0.4948 0.4949 0.4951 0.4952
2.6 0.4953 0.4955 0.4956 0.4957 0.4959 0.4960 0.4961 0.4962 0.4963 0.4964
2.7 0.4965 0.4966 0.4967 0.4968 0.4969 0.4970 0.4971 0.4972 0.4973 0.4974
2.8 0.4974 0.4975 0.4976 0.4977 0.4977 0.4978 0.4979 0.4979 0.4980 0.4981
2.9 0.4981 0.4982 0.4982 0.4983 0.4984 0.4984 0.4985 0.4985 0.4986 0.4986
3.0 0.4987 0.4987 0.4987 0.4988 0.4988 0.4989
ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 0.4989 0.4989 0.4990 0.4990
56
Normal Distributions – Computing
Probabilities
 Computing Probabilities for any Normal Probability
Distributions

al distributions are computed using the Standard Normal Distribution .
Standard Normal Distribution

rt NPD into STND
mean & Standard deviation compute Z value as given below :
p-2 :Use STND table to get probability for Z value.
ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in Normal Probability

57
Standard Normal Distribution & Other
Normal Dirstributions
Standard Normal
a ) 0 – is th e M e a n , Z , 1 , 2 , 3 , - Distribution
1 , - 2 , - 3 a re th e d ista n ce % of Data Val
fro m m e a n m e a su re d in
te rm s o f S ta n d a rd
d e v ia tio n s .
b ) T h e sh a d e d re g io n 0 to
1 . 5 S . D re p re se n ts th e
p ro p o rtio n ( % ) o f to ta l
Other dNormal
a ta v a lu e th a t fa lls
Distributions a ) 15 – is the Mean ,
b e tw e e n m e a n a n d 5th , 10e, 15 , 20 , 25 are x -
S .D . values
Z b ) The shaded region 15 to
20 represents the % of
data whose values are
Miles
How do we know the % of between
data lies 15 between
and 20 0. & Z or 15
1.The percentage of data available between 15 & 20 or

Mean& S.D can be found using Standard Normal
Distribution Table Standard Normal
and Distribution
2. Using the Formula % of Data Va
Other Normal
Distributions a ) 15 – is the Mean ,
5 , 10 , 15 , 20 , 25 are x –
values , S . D = 2 . 5
Z b ) The shaded region 15 to
20 represents the % of
data whose values are
Miles
How do we know the % of between
data lies 15 between
and 20 0. & Z or 15
1.The percentage of data available between 15 & 20 or

Mean& S.D can be found using Standard Normal
Distribution Table Standard Normal
and Distribution
2. Using the Formula % of Data Val
Other Normal
Distributions
Z a ) 15 – is the Mean , 5 , 10 , 15 , 20 , 25 are x

– values , S . D = 2 . 5
b ) Step : 1 : Convert Miles
Miles into S . D using the Z -
Formula
Z = How much of distance is
20 miles from the mean in
f data are there between 0 & Z or 15
terms of &S . D20 or Mean & S . D
C ) Step - 2 : With the S . D from 60
ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in
Step - 1 find the % of Data
d a rd N o rm a l D istrib u tio n & O th e r N o rm a l D irstrib u t
= 1 .5
S .D
S ta n d a rd N o rm a l D istrib u tio n Ta b le va lu e fo r 1 . 5 =
0 .4 3 3 2
ie
. 4 3 % o f a ll va lu e lie s b e tw e e n 1 5 & 2 0
ie
. th e p ro b a b ility th a t th e ra n d o m va ria b le x lie s
b e tw e e n 1 5 & 2 0 is 0 . 4 3 3 2
Exercises On theoretical
Distributions
1.Business Statistics – Williams p
( 571to 621 )
2.Business Statistics – JK. Sharma
p(246 – 248 )
p(252 – 254 )
p(263 – 267 )
5.
6. ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in 63
Counting Rule
• If an experiment can be described as

a sequence of k steps with
 n1 possible outcomes on the first step,
 n2 possible outcomes on the second
step and …… nk possible outcomes in
the kth step, then
Total number of outcomes = (n1)(n2)(n3)
……………..(nK).
Combination Rule
• If an experiment can
be described as a
sequence of k steps
with
 n1 possible outcomes
on the first step,
 n2 possible outcomes
on the second step and ……
nk possible outcomes
in the kth step, then
Total number of outcomes =
(n1)(n2)(n3)……………..(nK).
Combination Rule
• To count the number of outcomes
when the experiment involves
selecting r objects from a set of N
objects.
S e le ct 2 b a lls . H o w
m •a n y co m b in a tio n o f 2
b a lls ca n b e se le cte d ?
Combination Rule
• To count the number of outcomes

when the experiment involves
selecting r objects from a set of N
objects.
=
• The formula is
•
• N! = N(N-1)(N-2)……..(2)(1)
• r! = r(r-1)(r-2)…………(2)(1)
• 0! = 1
•

Probability

Transféré par

Informations du document

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Probability

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Probability

Indians will not

• Probability • Probability values are

• Experiment: • Randomly Selecting

outcome.  Randomly Selecting a Student

outcome that is of particular Election

one number from

showing numbers greater

 Roll a die which = probability of not

one number from 1 3/6 = 0.5

side showing a = 1-0.5 =0.5

numbers greater than 3 ? = probability of not

Mutually Exclusive Not Mutually Exclusive

What is the probability of selecting a

the following events:

7. Events that an individual 1.

 Not Mutually Exclusive

 1. P(A U B) = P(A) 1. P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

1. What is the probability

 Not Mutually Exclusive

 1. P(A B) = 0  1. P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) –

A ca rd w ith B o th re a d & B la ck R ed and N um ber

1. What is the probability

b a b ility o f a n e v e n t o ccu rrin g w ill b e g e t a ffe cte d b y

 If we have two events A

Event A: Throw is a number 6

1. P(Throw is a number 6)= 1/6 =

1. Possible outcomes are 2,4,6

• 1. An individual has high IQ. An individual is

selected for university post

• 2. A student plays chess. A student is good

• 3. A student plays Table - Tennis. A student

Capital letters X,Y,Z…. – Random Variable

Small letters x,y,z….. - one

distribution of the random variable X if, for each

TrialsOutcome X Probability of X = f(x)

• A consumer survey may reflect

Ø There are only 2 answers to the

Binomial Distributions - Definition

P o isso n D istrib u tio n s

time interval or in a specific region are called

Eg. 1. No.Of Telephone calls per hour

 2. No.of days college closed

Poisson Experiment is called Poisson

Poisson Distributions - Definition

random variable X, representing the number

P o isso n D istrib u tio n s

constant for all the time interval of same

3. The probability of an occurrence is the same

interval is independent of the occurrence or

P o isso n D istrib u tio n s

is the same for any two

M o st fre q u e n tly th e b a lls fa ll to ce n tre

Size of Tail M± M ± 1.96 M ± 2.58

Standard Normal Distribution

p-2 :Use STND table to get probability for Z value.

ManavazhaganR@Bsnl.in Normal Probability

1.The percentage of data available between 15 & 20 or

1.The percentage of data available between 15 & 20 or

Z a ) 15 – is the Mean , 5 , 10 , 15 , 20 , 25 are x

• If an experiment can be described as

• To count the number of outcomes

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi