Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
O Allah, send your salutations upon Muhammad (PBUH) & on the Family
of Muhammad (PBUH) as you sent your salutations upon Ibrahim & on the
Family of Ibrahim verily you are Most Praiseworthy & Glorious
Inactivity breaker
Object: Allocate a blank page from your writing material and divide that page into
two columns in the following manner:
Qualitative Variables
Quantitative Variables
1- Gender
1- Age
2- Complexion
2- Height
3- Qualification
3- Weight
4- Weather
4- Price
20.
20.
Try to write atleast 20 variables in each column by observing several fields like
management, agriculture, medical, engineering, geology etc. Submit the same
sheet by writing your full name on the top.
Data Sources
There are three major sources of data:
1. Survey/Census: An official, usually periodic
enumeration of a population, often including
the collection of related demographic
information, is called census. Survey means to
inspect and determine the conditions of
interest.
2. Experiment: Any activity, which is usually being
conducted within an isolated atmosphere, and
produces results, is called experiment.
3. Simulation: An artificial way of data collection.
Data Collection/compilation
Teaching Ranks where 1-Very Poor, 5-Excellent
4.5
3.7
4.3
3.3
2.7
4.7
3.8
4.5
3.4
4.0
3.8
2.7
4.3
3.4
3.2
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
5.0
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.9
4.5
5.0
3.7
4.8
3.2
4.2
4.5
4.2
5.0
2.9
Data collection/compilation is needed for getting
actual behavior of the variable.
Note: The above data is simulated version of the actual.
= 5.0-2.7 =2.3
= 6.175
= 0.377 0.4
Class Interval:
Frequency
2.7
3.1
3.4
10
3.8
4.2
12
10
Frequency
Ranks
8
6
4
2
0
2.7
4.6
3.1
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
Ranks
The above mentioned frequency distribution table and the Histogram are
revealing the shape of thoughts generated from the minds of students. If we
discover a subsequent Mathematical Model, it will called a Probability
distribution.
Frequency
2.7
3.1
11
3.4
3.8
4.2
12
10
Frequency
Ranks
8
6
4
2
0
2.7
4.6
3.1
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
Ranks
The above mentioned frequency distribution table and the Histogram are
revealing the shape of thoughts generated from the minds of students. If we
discover a subsequent Mathematical Model, it will called a Probability
distribution.
Data
Processing
Processing
By Graph
By Measure
Conclusions
Frequency
24
46
68
810
1012
2
5
9
7
2
f=25
Relative
Frequency
(R.F.)
2/25 = 0.08
5/25 = 0.20
9/25 = 0.36
7/25 = 0.28
2/25 = 0.08
R.F.=1
Cumulative
Relative Frequency
(C.R.F)
0.08
0.28
0.64
0.92
1.00
25%
Lower
Middle
Q1
25%
Upper
Middle
Q2
25%
Upper
Class
Q3
Max
Computing Quartiles
In order to computer Quartile Values, we need to
consider the same frequency distribution in addition to
the column of Cumulative Frequency.
Class
Intervals
24
46
68
810
1012
Frequency
2
5
9
7
2
f=25
Cumulative
Frequency (C.F.)
2
7
16
23
25
Frequency
Cumulative
Frequency (C.F.)
2
7
16
23
25
2
5
9
7
2
f=25
Step-1 (For Q1): (1 x 25) / 4 = 6.25
1st
Quartile
Class
25%
Lower
Middle
25%
Upper
Middle
25%
Upper
Class
Min
Q1
Q2
Q3
Max
2000
5700
7222
8786
12000
The Box-Plot
Boxplot of Teaching
Inter-quartile Range=Q3-Q1
Min
Q1
3
Q2
Q3
4
Teaching Ranks
Max
5
Structur
Admin
Teaching
Class
Intervals
24
Frequency
fi
2
46
f i xi
Mid-Points
xi
(2+4)/2
=3
23
f1=5
(4+6)/2
=5
55
68
fm=9
(6+8)/2
=7
97
810
f2=7
(8+10)/2
=9
79
1012
(10+12)/2
=11
211
f i xi=179
fi=25
Mode
f m f1
h
l
2 f m f1 f 2
7.333
Mean
fx
f
i i
i
179
7.160
25
AverageIncomeof the
Majority' s Incomeis 7333 Rs /
communityis 7160Rs /
Mean
f
i i
i
179
25
7.160
Median Q2
7.222
f m f1
h
Mode l
2 f m f1 f 2
7.333
For Mean
For Median
For Mode
Measures of Dispersion
Some Important Measures of Dispersion are:
Range=Max-Min
Variance
Standard Deviation
Mean Deviation
Inter-quartile Range
Coefficient of Variation (C.V.)
V (X )
V (X )
C.V .
100 100
X
f i (xi-mean)2
(2+4)/2=3
23
2(3 - 7.16)2=34.61
(4+6)/2=5
55
5(5 - 7.16)2=23.33
68
(6+8)/2=7
97
9(7 - 7.16)2=0.230
810
(8+10)/2=9
79
7(9 - 7.16)2=23.69
1012
(10+12)/2=11
211
f i xi=179
2(11 - 7.16)2=29.49
Class
Intervals
Frequency
fi
24
46
Mid-Points
xi
fi=25
f x x
Variance V ( X )
f
=111.34
111.34
4.45
25
V (X )
2.111
C.V .
100
100 29 .48 %
X
7.16
So technically, Income data is more consistent
than the first five natural numbers.
Hand-Profile Analysis
(An exploratory approach)
X4
X3
S.No.
X2
X5
Span (X6)
Length
(X7)
Thumb
(X1) in
cms
Measurements (X)
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
X6
X7
Determine
the Mean,
Standard deviation and
Coefficient of Variation.
2>3
2=3
2<3
H.W. (Group the data and prove that its Bellshaped symmetric in nature)
A Control Chart
Upper control Limit
Theoretical /Claimed
Value
+3
A Realization
- 3
Lower control Limit
S.No. X=2xRan#
1
2xRan#
2xRan#
2xRan#
2xRan#
2xRan#
2xRan#
2xRan#
A Class Activity
Write your name on the Top of todays Class
Work
Keep your Class Work open on your desk.
Leave your seat and check atleast one of your
classmate copy and write your remarks about
him/her on a chit.
Submit your remarks-chit to me by writing the
name of that classmate.
Introduction to Probability
It is the science in which either we study a
random experiment or we observe a random
phenomenon.
In probability study, a sample space is needed
which is the set of all possible outcomes of
any random experiment.
It is the connectivity b/w Descriptive and
Inferential Statistics.
For
should
For AB
AB,
it, itshould
AB,
A
, it should
bebebe
For
AB,
The Demorgans Law
Expectation
Probability
Distribution
Random
Variable
Criteria
Numeric
Counting Rules
Sample
Space
Events
Outcomes
Dependent
Conditional Probability
Central Tendency
Dispersion
2
3
Probability Distributions
For any frequency distribution, we need a
variable while for any probability distribution,
we need a random variable
Random Variable is the data which can be
obtained by converting the outcomes of any
sample space into numeric codes after defining
a particular criteria, so;
Random Experiment is necessary for a
probability distribution
Formation of Dichotomous SS
A truth Table can help us forming the sample
space: For e.g. Sample Space of Rand. Exp. # 3.
The formation rule is simple S. No. 1 2 3
1
H
H
H
Values of Every next column
2
T
H
H
should be doubled of the
3
H
T
H
preceding column.
4
T
T
H
5
H
H
T
Outcomes can be observed
6
T
H
T
Horizontally.
7
H
T
T
st
nd
rd
King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3++10
King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3++10
King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3++10
King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3++10}
Total=
13
13
13
13
52
Formation of Events
What is an Event?
Computing Probability
Probability of an Event
P(A) stands for probability of an Event A such that;
P(A) = n(A)/n(S)
Where,
n(A) is the number of outcomes present in Event A.
n(S) are the number of outcomes present in the
Sample Space.
Probability is a proportion of Event in a Sample Space.
For any Event A; 0 P(A) 1 where A S
Interpreting Probability
Probability occurs against every Event and should be interpreted
in 3 components;
1) Object of the Random Experiment
2) Value of the Probability
3) Event Statement
Practice Questions
Q1) If we toss a fair coin three times, determine the
following probabilities:
a) P(A)=Probability of getting exactly one Head in all tosses?
b) P(B)=Probability of getting Tail in the first toss?
c) P(C)=Probability of getting exactly one head AND one
tail?
P(One head One Tail)
d) P(D)=Probability of NOT getting exactly one head in all
tosses? P(A)
e) P(F)=Probability of Either getting exactly one head in all
tosses OR tail in the first toss?
P(AUB)
22
B
22
K
1
A
1
22
B
11
2
E
16
6
B
3
Independence/Dependence
Conditional Probability
A Contingency table can help us to understand
the concept of Independent or Dependant
Events.
A contingency table is a Bivariate Frequency
table showing a joint Distribution of two
variables.
Usually two Qualitative variables can be used
to form a Contingency Table.
Male (M)
Female (F)
R. Total
R.Total
Glasses (G)
05 MG
12 FG
G =17
17
No Glasses (NG)
09 MNG
19 FNG
NG=28
28
Column Total
M=14
14
F=31
31
S =45
45
Conditional Probability
(Independence Check)
If Gender is independent of Eyesight, then the
following will be proved:
P(M/G)P(M)
We considered this empirically and got this result:
0.294 0.31
Therefore we can say that Gender is Independent of
Eyesight which is quite obvious.
This might be possible to get different answers for
both simple and conditional probabilities if we
consider the case of Gender v/s Heart Disease.
Conditional Probability
(Independence Check)
We might be having different result if we make a
minor change in the following table:
Gender/EyeSight
Male (M)
Female (F)
R. Total
Glasses (G)
05
19
12
G =24
=17
No Glasses (NG)
09
12
19
NG=21
NG=28
Column Total
M=14
F=31
S =45
Conditional Probability
(Class Activity)
Generate the following Bivariate Data by recalling
your memories: S.No Gender (M/F) Like/Dislike
.
50
S={HH,HT,TH,TT)
Now if we define a following criteria, i.e.
X={Showing no. of heads in each outcome} then X
will be a random variable having these values;
X={2,1,1,0}
Finally we got the probability distribution so that
P(X=0)=0.25 are the chances of having no heads in
both tosses so on.
A Probability
Distribution
X P(X=x)
0 1/4
1 2/4
2 1/4
-300
4/12
-150
4/12
+250
2/12
+400
2/12
P(X=x)
X P(X=x)
X2 P(X=x)
-300
0.333
-300 x 0.333
(-300)2 x 0.333
-150
0.333
-150 x 0.333
(-150) 2 x 0.333
+250
0.167
+250 x 0.167
(+250) 2 x 0.167
+400
0.167
+400 x 0.167
(+400) 2 x 0.167
E(X)=
E(X2)=
Odd Rows
Quiz # 2
Even Rows
Combinatorial Problems
What are Counting Techniques?
The concept is usually use when the sample
space is too large for any Random Experiment.
When we try to explore different ways to
arrange/rearrange objects.
When we want to know how huge is the
domain of possibilities even in assigning simple
tasks to different individuals
Counting Rules
In order to understand the concept; we can
consider the following case:
If we have 3 objects A,B,C and we want to
choose 2 objects from 3.
Then we have 2 Questions before we proceed
Q1: Is duplication Allowed?
(Y/N)
Q2: Is order important (ABBA)? (Y/N)
= Total seconds
r
(Total Seconds)/60
= Total minutes
(Total Minutes)/60
= Total Hours
(Total Hours)/24
= Total days
(Total days)/365
= Total Years required
Accompaniments
breakfast potatoes
apple slices
fresh fruit cup
pastry
Juice
orange
cranberry
tomato
apple
grape
A Probability
Distribution
X P(X=x)=
2C
2
x/2
1/4
2/4
1/4
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
Mathematical Expectation
(A Binomial Distribution case)
As we know the Mean and Variance of any
Probability distribution is:
E(X)= X P(X=x) and V(X)=E(X2) [E(X)]2
But Using Binomial PDF, we can compute both
measures in terms of Parameters:
E(X)=np and V(X)=np(1-p)
Determine the Average number of Pro-Imran
Khan Students in the group of 10.
P(X=x) 0.1353 0.2707 0.2707 0.1804 0.0902 0.0361 0.0120 0.0034 0.0009
0.09
0.06
-3.9
..
-1.9
0.025
0.00
0.09
0.05
0.04
0.0495
0.0505
0.00
-3.9
..
-1.6
Index Numbers
Index Numbers are RELATIVE measures.
Index Numbers Could be Price Relatives or
Quantity Relatives.
Index Numbers are having two major types:
1) Simple Index
2) Composite Index
Simple Index Number can be obtained using
this formula: In=Pn/P0100 where,
Pn is the current year (time) and Po is the Base year (time)
Price
(Rs/-)
Fixed Base
In=Pn/54 100
Chain Base
In=Pn/Pn 100
2006
54
2007
60
2008
67
Price
City1
Price
City2
Price
City3
Sum
P
Fixed Base
In=Pn/156 100
2006
54
52
50
156
100%
100%
2007
60
65
62
187
119.9%
119.9%
2008
67
65
68
200
128.2%
106.9%
Chain Base
In=Pn/P0 100