Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Six-step Process
Corporate Overview
Industry analysis--key economic
characteristics, historical context, profit
drivers, business risks
Firms business strategy--competitive
strategy given the industry characteristics
Industry Analysis
Competition--growth rates, concentration
ratios, degree of product differentiation,
economies of scale (& relative fixed &
variable costs), substitute products
Legal barriers--patent & copyrights,
licensing, regulation
bargaining power of buyers (& suppliers) &
price sensitivity
Business Strategy
Cost leadership: low cost producer,
economies of scale, efficient production,
low input prices
Product differentiation: specific attributes
that customers value (e.g., quality, variety,
service, delivery time), brand name
Importance of core competencies
Historical perspective
Primary focus of operations
Most important strategy
Major operating segments
Corporate outlook/ forecast
Qualitative Analysis--Dell
Computer
Industryprimarily PCs: high tech, competitive (e.g.,
Gateway, IBM, Apple, others), changing products,
high growth rates, low barriers of entry
Business strategy--(1) cost leadership strategy: direct
selling, made-to-order manufacturing, early on the
internet, low receivables; (2) product differentiation??
[IBM clones, Intel & Microsoft components]
Current situationmarket share; what is the impact of
the business cycle (e.g., PCs are durable goods)?
Financial Statements
Common-size Analysis
Financial Ratios
Growth/trend Analysis
Quarterly analysis
DuPont Model
Market Analysis
Comprehensive Analysis
Summarize key points: what is particularly
important for decision making?
Red flags are particularly important
Consider a written executive summary
Consider a rating scale, such as 1-10
Decision
What is the recommendation or decision?
What is the key rationale for this decision?
[This is based on the specific decision: for
a credit decision the key factors relate to
credit risk, with particular focus on leverage
and liquidity.]
Be prepared to defend this decision.
Chapter 2
The Financial Environment
Capital Markets
Equity
Primary
Secondary
Initial public
offering
Debt
Bank loan,
initial debt
security offering
Buying &
Buying &
selling of stocks selling on
on securities
secondary debt
markets
market
Credit Decisions
Commercial banks provide short-term
commercial loans
The major concern: will the company pay
interest & principal when due?
Loan terms: interest rate, collateral, debt
covenants
SEC Regulation
Mission: Protect investors & maintain integrity of
the securities markets
Established following the Great Market Crash
(SEC Act of 1934)
SEC requires public registration, proxy statements
& annual (10-K) and quarterly (10-Q) reports, 8-K
for specific events
Update: Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 & Public
Company Accounting Oversight Board; DoddFrank, 2010
Accounting Regulators
Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC)-regulates securities markets and financial
reporting (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K)
Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB)-promulgates GAAP
International Accounting Standards Board
(IASB)issuing International Financial Reporting
Standards (IFRS)
FAF
FASAC
FASB
GASB
Due Process
Due Process
Pronouncements
Pronouncements
GASAC
The FASB
Seven member board, full time, appointed by
FAF, presumed independent
Extensive due process: agenda items, discussion
memoranda (DM), exposure drafts (ED),
pronouncements, public exposure with written &
oral comments
Super-majority (5-2 vote) [simple majority used
1977-90]
Standard setting a political process
Management Incentives
Managers have incentives to present information
in the most favorable light (e.g., bonuses, stock
options, promotions)
Accounting choice: accounting polities, estimates,
additional disclosures
Standardize vs. estimates: what is reality?
Management have best information, but
communications to investors may not be
completely credible
Financial Statement
Considerations
Managers information on economic reality
Estimation errors
Distortion from managers accounting
choices & disclosure
Question: Can investor perceptions be
manipulated?
Efficient Markets
Random Walk
Portfolio Theory
Beta Analysis
Economic Behavior & Agency Theory
Earnings Management & Accounting
Choice
Efficient Markets
Markets are efficient if information is
impounded immediately in capital prices in
an unbiased fashion
Research supports market efficiency in the
semi-strong form, for short windows
Why?Analyst following
Note long-term anomalies & other
challenges (e.g., behavioral economics)
Random Walk
The concept that a professional portfolio
cannot outperform a randomly selected
stock portfolio
Research generally confirms this result
Consistent with efficient markets; that is, all
information has been impounded in stock
price
Portfolio Theory
Harry Markowitz introduced the concept of
portfolio diversification with his 1952
dissertation
Portfolio theory insists that investment
portfolios should be diversified to reduce
the risk relative to return
Capital asset pricing model: E(Ri) = Rf +
[E(Rm) Rf)
Beta Analysis
Beta () comes directly from the slope of
the market model: Rit = i + iRmt + eit
Beta measures the relationship between
price movements of the individual stock to
market averages
Beta is a measure of systematic risk, where
a =1 stock should move with the market; a
>1 stock has greater market risk
Economic Behavior
Rationality: assume bounded rationality
people are intendedly rationale but limited
Self-interest behavior:
Obedience
Simple self interest
Opportunism (self interest with guile-that is, willing to violate normal ethical
boundaries for personal benefit)
Agency Theory
Contracts have a principal (e.g., owners)
and agent (e.g., managers). The principal
will attempt to maximize wealth, contract to
avoid conflict, and minimize transaction
and agency costs.
Agency costs: information asymmetries
(limited information by one side), adverse
selection, moral hazard (e.g., shirking).
Earnings Management
Operations and discretionary accounting
methods to adjust earnings to a desired
outcome, often income smoothing
Underlying theory: agency theory,
transaction cost economics
Importance of efficient contracting:
corporations are a network of contracts and
exist because they write contracts efficiently
Accounting Choice
Discretionary choices to optimize behavior,
using techniques such as:
1. Select alternative accounting
methods (e.g., inventory) & level
of disclosure (e.g., contingencies)
2. Lobbying (e.g., on proposed
standards)
3. Financial, production & investment
activities
Taking a bath
Creating hidden reserves
Off-balance-sheet financing
Overstating performance (e.g., aggressive
revenue recognition)
Not reporting obligations (contingencies,
commitments, other liabilities)
Earnings Manipulation
Because alternatives are allowed, financial
accounting has many discretionary aspects.
Managers can manipulate income by timing (e.g.,
recognition this year v next year) and
classification (e.g., ordinary v extraordinary)
Accruals can be mandatory (e.g., other post
employment benefits) or voluntary (e.g.,
depreciation)
Earnings Quality
Normalizing Income
Attempt to determine earning power--related to
normal operating earnings
Remove the noise--usually associated with
nonrecurring items
Separate analysis of nonrecurring items-reorganization, big bath write-offs, changing
GAAP
Evidence of earnings manipulation may require
substantial adjustments to arrive at normal
earnings
Chapter 3
The Financial Statements
Financial Statements
Balance Sheet
Income Statement
Statement of Cash Flows
Statement of Stockholders Equity
Balance Sheet
Assets: probable future economic benefits
Liabilities: probable future economic
sacrifices
Stockholders Equity: residual interest,
representing ownership interest (also called
net assets)
Assets
Current Assets (cash & cash equivalents,
short-term marketable securities), accounts
receivable, inventory, other)
Property, plant & equipment
Long-term investments
Other assets
Liabilities
Current Liabilities (accounts payable,
accrued & other current liabilities)
Long-term debt
Commitments & contingencies
Other liabilities
Potential off-balance sheet debt
Stockholders Equity
Preferred stock
Common stock
Other paid-in capital
Retained earnings
Treasury stock
Other comprehensive income
Other equity items
Income Statement
Revenues: inflows from major operations
Expenses: outflows from major operations
Gains & Losses: changes in equity from
peripheral activities
Net income: bottom line all operating
activities recorded on the income statement
Comprehensive income: Changes in equity
from all non-owner sources
Revenue
Sales
Services
Other revenue items
Importance of revenue recognition criteria
Operating Expenses
Cost of goods sold (manufacturing)
Cost of sales (services or services included)
Operating expenses (selling, general &
administrative, research & development,
other)
Interest income & expenses & related
Provision for tax
Non-recurring Items
Extraordinary items
Discontinued operations
Accounting changes
Other non-recurring items
Other gains & losses
Earnings Measures
Gross profit
Operating income
Income before tax
Income from continuing operations
Net income
Comprehensive income
Net income
Depreciation & amortization
Other operating adjustments
Changes in non-cash working capital items
Statement of Stockholders
Equity
Reconciliation of stockholders equity,
alternative formats used
Key categories (changes)
Common stock, other paid-in capital
Retained earnings
Treasury stock
Other comprehensive income
Chapter 4
Quantitative Financial Analysis
Using Financial Statement
Information
Financial Statements
Common-size Analysis
Financial Ratios
Growth Analysis
Du Pont Model
Earnings Quality/Normalizing Earnings
Common-size Analysis
Overview vs. detail
Balance sheet: total assets = 100%
Income Statement: sales (or total revenues)
= 100%
Comparisons over time & across firms (or
industry averages)
Useful starting point for financial overview
Ratio Analysis
A ratio converts financial information to a
percentage, one approach to standardization
Each ratios provides a somewhat different analysis
Ratios overlapa problem in one area should
show up as problems in other areas
The importance of specific ratios differs, based on
the purpose of the financial analysis
Ratios for the most recent period are usually the
most important
Ratio Categories
Liquiditycash, working capital & cash
flow related
Activityturnover ratios as possible
efficiency measures
Leveragedebt & solvency analysis
Performance (or profitability)bottom line
or earnings related
Liquidity Ratios
Current ratio: current assets/current
liabilities
Quick (acid test) ratio: (cash+marketable
securities+net receivables)/current liabilities
Cash ratio: (cash+marketable
securities)/current liabilities
Operating ratio: cash flows from
operations/current liabilities
Leverage Ratios
Debt to equity ratio: total liabilities/total stockholders
equity
Debt ratio: total liabilities/total assets
Interest coverage: (income before tax +interest
expense)/interest expense [note that the numerator is
earnings before interest and taxes or EBIT]*
Long-term debt to equity: long-term liabilities/total
stockholders equity
Debt to market equity: total liabilities at book value/total
equity at market value
*alternatively: (income from continuing operations
+ interest expense + tax expense)/interest expense
Activity Ratios
Inventory turnover: cost of sales [or
COGS]/average inventory
Receivables turnover: sales/average accounts
receivable
Payables turnover: sales/average accounts payable
Working capital turnover: sales/average working
capital
Fixed asset turnover: sales/average property, plant
& equipment
Total asset turnover: sales/average total assets
Profitability
Du Pont Model
ROE = Profitability x Activity x Solvency
Net Income / Average Common Equity =
(Net Income / Sales) x (Sales / Average
Total Assets) x (Average Total Assets /
Average Common Equity)
ROA = Profitability x Activity
Du Pont Model
Ratio
Profit (Return on Sales)
Activity (Asset
Turnover)
Return on Assets
Solvency (Common
Equity Leverage)
Return on Equity
Calculation
Net Income/Sales
Sales/Avg. Total Assets
(ATA)
Net Income/ATA
ATA/Average Common
Equity (ACE)
Net Income/ ACE
Gateway
Apple
Liquidity
Activity
Leverage
Perform.
1 RF
2 RF
Du Pont
1 RF
2 RF
Overall
2 RF
Chapter 5
Multiperiod Quantitative Financial
Analysis
Growth Analysis
(period-by-period change)
Long-term trends over time can be significant. Are
current year performance measures consistent with
earlier years (e.g., maintaining consistent ratios
while sales are rising smoothly)?
As a first step, present growth rates (including %
increases) for the last 5-10 years
Declining or negative growth rates might be
obvious red flags; Red flags and other indicators
of poor growth performance require further
analysis
Base-Year Analysis
(also called Trend Analysis)
Set the earliest year, evaluated as the base
year, at 100. [Note: this assumes that
earliest year is normal.] Calculate growth
by dividing the more current year numbers
by the base year number.
This is an alternative presentation to growth
rate percentages over 5-10 years (or more)
Quarterly Analysis
The most recent financial data is presented
quarterly (e.g., 10-Q). [The one exception is at
year end, with annual information is presented]
Financial analysts focus on quarterly data and the
quarterly earnings announcement is the most
important (& earliest) information
Common-size and ratios analysis is conducted,
and compared over earlier quarters: particularly
important are current quarter data to (1) the
previous quarter and (2) the same quarter one year
ago
Chapter 6
Quantitative Financial Analysis
Techniques: Incorporating Market
Information
Stock Prices
PE Ratios
Stock price as a market premium for
earnings
Which price? (most current, historic)
Which EPS? (current year actual--usually
last 4 quarters, future forecast, basic vs.
diluted)
Closing prices
Alternatives & how to evaluate them
Market-based Ratios
Price earnings ratio (PE): Stock price / EPS
Dividend Yield: Dividend per share / Stock
price
Market value: stock price x shares
outstanding
Market-to-book: market value /
stockholders equity
Dividends
Dividends given on a per share basis; focus on
dividends per share, last 4 quarters. [Note
equivalent to dividends/shares outstanding.]
Dividend yield: dividends per share/stock price
income focus; average yield is about 2% for the
S&P 500.
Dividend payout: dividends per share/earnings per
share.
Market-related Ratios
Market-to-book: market value / stockholders
equity [or measure on a per share basisstock
price / book value per share]why is a market
premium to book common?
Sales to market value: annual sales to
outstanding shares x (1) year-end closing market
price or (2) most recent closing market price.
Stock Screening
The purpose of stock screening is the
determine which firms meet specific criteria
(such as minimum ROE or dividend yield)
Several internet sites have stock screeners,
such as Yahoo
The technique is useful to limit the number
of companies on which to conduct a
complete financial analysis
Chapter 11
Capital Structure & Credit Risk
Corporate Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Commercial Paper & other short-term
market liabilities
Other current liabilities
Corporate Bonds
Other long-term market debt
Other liabilities (including off-balancesheet)
Credit Risk
Credit risk: probability that a corporation
will either default on debt or declare
bankruptcy.
Default risk: probability that a
corporation will not pay interest &
principal when they come due
Bankruptcy risk: probability that a
corporation will file for bankruptcy
Default Risk
What is the chance (probability) that the
corporation will fail to make interest or principal
payments when due?
Because of high collection costs, creditors
evaluate credit risk carefully
Failure events: restructurings, especially troubled
debt restructuring; default; bond rating downgrading; going-concern qualifications; bankruptcy
Bankruptcy Risk
Probability that a firm will file for Chapter
11 bankruptcy.
Importance of failure events: losses,
defaults, troubled debt restructuring, going
concern qualified audit opinion
Altmans Z-score can be used as a
prediction model for credit risk
Financial Leverage
Financial leverage is the relative mix of debt (especially
long-term debt) & equity
Long-term debt increases credit risk & has interest charges
The financial leverage index (FLI) is ROE/ROA
A high FLI indicates the increasing use of leverage to raise
ROE relative to ROA
The financial structure leverage ratio (FSLR) is average total
assets/average common equity. This is the same ratio used in
the DuPont Model for solvency. A higher ratio means higher
leverage, but also a higher ROE. The ratio is identical to FL1
if there is no preferred stock. When preferred stock is
present, the FSLR is higher than FLI.
Altmans Z-score
Indicator of overall financial health
Cutoffs: les than 1.1
bankrupt
1.1 2.6
gray area
greater than 2.6
healthy
A Z-score of 1.1 or less does not mean the
company is bankrupt, but does suggest that
financial problems may exist
Bond Ratings
Bond rating agencies include Standard &
Poors & Moodys
Corporations are expected to have
investment grade ratings, Baa and above
(for Moodys)
Bond ratings below investment grade are
junk bonds, which is usually recognized as
a red flag
Bond Ratings
Highest
Very High
High Qual.
High Qual.
Speculative
Speculative
Speculative
Speculative
S&P
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
CCC
D
Moodys
Aaa
Aa
A
Baa
Ba
B
Caa
C
Category
Investment
Investment
Investment
Investment
Below
Below
Below
Below
Chapter 12
Credit Analysis
Loan Purpose
Corporate Overview
Financial Analysis
Accounting Analysis
Comprehensive Analysis
Loan Decision
Loan Purpose
Commercial Bank Loan:
term loan
revolving line of credit
other
Commercial Paper
Corporate Bonds
Corporate Overview
Wide variety of firms need bank loans
Size characteristicslocal or regional to
national & global
Industry specializations, including impact
on bank credit risk
Large companies have more credit options
Accounting Analysis
Emphasis on liquidity & cash flow
information
Analysis of unrecorded obligations &
potential overstated assets
Forecasts of sales & operations plus future
cash flows
Comprehensive Analysis
Summary of key information (executive
summary recommended)
Importance of credit risk
Adequate information to make informed
recommendations/decisions
Loan Decisions
Yes/ No on loan
What interest rate (prime rate +)?
What collateral?
What Debt covenants?
Other considerations (e.g., compensating
balances)
Chapter 13
Equity Investment Analysis
Investment Portfolio
Mutual Funds
Investment portfolios managed by
professionals & regulated by the SEC
Advantages: diversification, professional
management, liquidity, small investment
Disadvantages: Fees, average returns less
than expected, lack of control over
investments, taxes
Gotrocks Funds
Growth Fund: maximize long-term market appreciation
using large-cap stocks (focus on earnings & earnings
growth potential)
Income Fund: maximize intermediate- & long-term income
using bonds and large-cap stock that pay high dividends (+
total return as a secondary goal)
Value Fund: invest in large-cap stocks that out of favor
requires evidence of substantial stock price drop &
ongoing restructuring (usually low market-to-book)
Investment Strategies
Six-step Analysis
Investment purpose
Corporate overview
Quantitative financial & market analysis
Detailed accounting analysis
Comprehensive analysis
Recommendation or decision
Investment Purpose
Short-term (stressing liquidity & low risk)
Long-term (e.g., retirementstressing longterm return, willing to accept more risk)
Using market averages such as the Dow Jones
Industrial Average
Utilities may fit income funds because of high
dividend yields
High tech firms may fit growth funds
Decisions
Decisions: buy, sell, hold (& how much?)
Different important characteristics based on
investment goals:
Income Investment: importance of
dividend yield
Growth fund: importance of profit &
earnings growth forecast
Values funds: importance of bargain
price