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For Oracle employees and authorized partners only. Do not distribute to third parties.
2008 Oracle Corporation Proprietary and Confidential
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Presenters Title
Title of Presentation
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For Oracle employees and authorized partners only. Do not distribute to third parties.
2008 Oracle Corporation Proprietary and Confidential
Agenda
After completing this module, you should be able to:
Understand Demantra in the context of APS
Describe key capabilities of Oracle Demantra
Understand what business processes are supported within
Demantra
Understand Oracle Demantra Concepts and Jargon
Supply Chain
Demand driven
Risk Management adaptive planning
Operational
Excellence
Real-Time
S&OP
Multi-Enterprise
Collaboration
Role-based Portals
Network
Design
Integrated
Planning
Functions
Demand Sensing
And Shaping
Postponement
Optimization
Holistic
Supply
Planning
Promise,
Distribute, and
Replenish
Preconfigured
Worksheets and
Workbenches
Execute to plan
Products
Strategic
Network
Optimization
Inventory
Optimization
Real-Time
Sales &
Operations
Planning
Demand
Management
& Advanced
Forecasting
Predictive
Trade
Planning &
Optimization
Common planning
data model
WFL
Production
Scheduling
Connectors
Platform
Future
Advanced
Supply Chain
Planning
E1
EBS
LegacyE
RP
Global
Order
Promising
Collaborative
Planning
Embedded
Analytics
Demand
Management
Advanced Forecasting
and Demand Modeling
Deduction and
Settlement Management
Trade Promotion
Optimization
Predictive Trade
Planning
Demand Management
Advanced Forecasting
Demand Management
Deduction and
Settlement Management
Oracle EBS
Promotion Optimization
JDE E1
Siebel CRM
Supply Chain
Management
and Financials
Supply Chain
Management
and Financials
Trade
Management
Execution
Manage by exception
Multi-dimensional OLAP for analysis (product, channel, geography, )
User-defined exceptions
Proactive notifications
High inventory
costs
Shorter product
lifecycles
Long
manufacturing
lead times
Frequent new
product
introductions
Stock outs & non-
Proper Demand
Management and
availability
Switching
Sales andCustomer
Operations
Planning helps
Excessive inventory
companies
solve these
challenges
Promotions
negative
and increase
ROIprofitable revenue
growth. Loss of revenue
Promotions/Deals
fluctuate demand
NPI failure
Extreme
product
segmentation
Product variations to
meet different
geographical and legal
requirements
Typical Challenges
Shorter Product Lifecycles
Frequent new product introductions putting increased burden on operations
Shorter life span of the product making it difficult to forecast
Inferior systems
Manual processes, low visibility in a globalized business climate
Multiple non integrated local systems
Unmet expectations
All of the above could result in unmet corporate expectations and decline
in shareholder value
Demand
Traditional
Definition of
Supply Chain
Management
Supplier
Customer
Product
Design
Partner
Demand-driven Processes
Supply
Demand
Demand
Insights
Sense
Demand
Shape
Demand
Drive a
Profitable
Demand
Response
Product
Technology
Opportunities
Supply
Risk
Management
Demand Shaping
Operational Planning
Tolerance along time and organization dimensions
for fulfilling demands
Global forecasting and consumption
Automatically sourcing forecasts to appropriate
organizations that fulfill demands
Supply Positioning
Consider forecast accuracy measures to determine
inventory levels
Postponement optimization
Sample Business
Processes Supported
within Demantra
Proportional
When a series is defined, modelers have the ability to define the
allocation to be based on another series.
The basis series could be computed based on a business specific logic or
could be collected data series such as order history and backlog.
Custom Methods
Define custom methods that can be invoked for any special allocation logic.
For example, allocate around intersections that have sales orders
Client Expressions
These are expressions that enable using mathematical formulas and if-thenelse statements using different series data.
For example, you could have an expressions that makes the forecast equal
to or above the sales order quantity for any given combination.
Color expressions
These are expressions that color code the cell based on conditionality.
For example, you could color all cells red when the forecast variance is
above a certain percentage.
Historical
data
Bayesian
Estimator
Multiple
causal
factors
Bayesian
Optimizer
Forecast
Combined
model
Seasonality
Promotion
Events
Causal
Analysis
Trend
Outlier
Detection
Cyclical Patterns
Shape Modeling
Activity based shape modeling
Demantra captures the profile of historical demand over a
period of time
Apply shapes scaled for volume and time to future forecasts
Alignment of future forecasts shape dictated by Quantity
Alignment Duration specified in another series
Supported in Demand Planning mode and Promotion
Effectiveness mode
Causal Factors
Global Factors
Model global causal factors that
apply to all products and
locations
For example, holidays such as
Thanksgiving and Christmas,
seasons, etc
Local Factors
Local causal factors apply to a
specific product and location
For example, a snow plough is
more likely to sell more during
snowy season in the North-East
than in Arizona.
Member Management
New Products Introduction
All combinations are stored at
lowest levels
Most members have combinations
with sales data and hence enabled
for forecasting
For introducing new, use tools such
as Member Management to enable
them for forecasting
Create a new member at any
aggregation level in the product
hierarchy but typically lowest level
members
Chaining
Forecasting new product / stores
Chaining is the process of copying series data from one set of
combinations to new set of combinations.
If you have new product/location combinations, use chaining to
create history so Demantra can generate forecast.
Item Similarity
For example, you created new store X which sells same items as
existing store Y
Chaining creates all the relevant item combinations for new store X
based on Y
Location Similarity
For example, you created a new item B which is similar to item A and
sold in all locations
Chaining creates all relevant location combinations for B based on A
Proport Mechanisms
Multiple proportionality options exist for disaggregating to new
combinations such as Target, Source, Equal and Similar
Zone / Region
Ship to Location
Item
Demand Class
Backward Days
Forward Days
After scanning backwards, scan forward to
look for forecast to consume.
Criticality of consumption
If the forecasts are not consumed properly,
supply chain will be overdriven causing
excess inventory
All these different options can be taken
advantage to shape forecast demands to
align with reality.
Summary
Path to implement
Start with the corporate objectives
Identify and prioritize corporate objectives
For example, improve forecast accuracy by 10% or reduce stockouts of certain product line, etc.
Glossary of Terms
Levels
Levels control how data is aggregated and
organized
Used in worksheets, filters, import or export, and
forecasting
Types of levels:
Items - group data according to characteristics of
items
Locations - group data according to characteristics of
locations
Combinations - group data according to timeindependent characteristics of item-location
combinations (i.e. Sales Rep)
Time - group data by sales date
Promotions - group data according to characteristics
of Promotions including Item, Location and Time
Settlements - group data according to characteristics
of Settlements including Item, Location and Time
Series
A set of data that can be displayed in a worksheet table or
graph, at any aggregation level
3 data types of Series: Numeric, String or Date
Types of Series:
Sales Series - Consists of time-dependent data for each item-location
combination
Matrix Series - Consists of time-independent data for each item-location
combination (i.e. Store Minimum)
Promotion Series - Consists of data for each promotion at each itemlocation combination, at each time bucket
Level Series - Stores data associated with a specific member in a level
Worksheets
Within Demantra, users work almost entirely within
worksheets
A worksheet is a customized working environment where
users can view and edit data
When users save changes back to the database, they
become available to other users and to downstream
operations
A worksheet consists of one or more views, usually
displayed as tabs or MDI within the worksheet
Each view retrieves a set of data that is aggregated in a
specific way and that may also be filtered
Worksheets UI Components
Menu and
Toolbar
Member
Browser
Notes and
Attachments
Table
Graph
Activity
Details
Embedded
Worksheet
Status Bar
Workflow
Web-based
Not accessible to most end users
Used to define and run workflows