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Prediction
Conjecture
Aims of Forecasting
. Forecasting provide information about future changes in
policies and their consequences.
Limitation of Forecasting
Forecast Accuracy the accuracy of relatively simple forecast
as well as relatively complex forecast has been limited.
Comparative Yield assumption and implication are overlooked
or discarded because they are inconsistent with assumptions of
models.
Context
a. Institutional Context variation in institutional
aspects are have impact in institutional context ( e.g. incentive
given to employees of an agency ).
b. Temporal Context the longer the time frame the less
accurate the forecast.
c. Historical Context greater complexity of recent
historical period diminishes forecast accuracy.
Approaches of Forecasting
Decide what to forecast, that is determine what the OBJECTIVE of the
forecast is to be.
Decide how to make the forecast, that is, select one or more BASES for
the forecast.
Choose TECHNIQUES that are most appropriate for the object and
base selected.
OBJECT
- Is the point of reference of a projection, prediction, or conjecture
1. Consequences of existing policies forecast may be used to estimate
changes that are likely to occur if new government actions are taken.
2. Consequences of new policies forecast may be used to eliminate
changes in the society that are likely to occur if new policies are
adopted.
3. Content of new policies forecast may be used to estimate the
probable support (or opposition) to newly proposed policies.
BASES
Is the set assumptions or date used to establish the plausibility
of estimates of consequences of existing or new policies, the
content of new policies, or the behavior of stakeholders.
Trend Extrapolation
is the extension into the future of trends observed in the
past.
- assumes that what has occurred in the past will also occur in
the future, provided that no new policies or unforeseen events
intervene to change the course of events.
- used INDUCTIVE LOGIC in forecasting, that is, the
process of reasoning from particular observation (e.g. time
series data) to general conclusion or claims.
2. Theoretical Assumptions
are systematically structured and empirically testable sets of laws
on propositions which make prediction about the occurrences on
event on the basis of another.
- It is causal in form and their specific role is to explain and
predict.
- Based on DEDUCTIVE LOGIC that is, the process of reasoning
from general statements, laws, or proposition to particular sets of
information and claims.
3. Informed Judgment
- Refer to knowledge based on experience and insights rather than
inductive or deductive reasoning.
- These judgments are usually expressed by experts or
knowledgeable are used in cases where theory and/or empirical
date are unavailable or inadequate.
APPROACH
BASES
APPROPRIATE
TECHNIQUE/S
PRODUCT
Extrapolation
Forecasting
Trend Extrapolation
-Classical
Theoretical
Forecasting
Theoretical
Assumptions
-Theory
modeling
-Causal modeling
-Regression analysis
Predictions
Judgmental
Forecasting
Informed Judgment
-Conventional
Conjectures
time-series
analysis
-Linear trend estimation
-Policy
Delphi
Delphi
-Cross-impact analysis
Projections
1.
4.
5.
3.
Issue Specification
Selection of Advocates an example of it is snow ball sampling
where analyst begins by identifying one advocate, usually someone
who is known to be influential in the issue area, and asking that
person to name two others who agree and disagree most with his or
her own position.
Questionnaire Design
a. Forecasting Items requesting respondents provide subjective
estimates of the probability of occurrence of particular events
b. Issue Items requesting respondents to rank issues in terms of their
importance
c. Goal Items Solicit judgments about the desirability and feasibility
of pursuing certain goals
d. Option Items requesting that respondents identify alternative
courses of action that may contribute to the attainment of goals and
objectives.
4.
5.
6.
Analysis of First-Round-Result
Development of group meetings
Preparation of final report