Chapter 6

Population Growth
and Economic
Development:
Causes,
Consequences,
and Controversies

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Estimated World Population Growth

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World Population Growth, 1750-2050

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6-3

World Population Growth Rates

and Doubling Times

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World Population Distribution by Region,

2003 and 2050

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6-5

World Population Distribution

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Fertility Rate for Selected Countries

1970 and 2006

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6-7

Population Pyramids
LDCs population pyramid is truly
pyramid-shaped with 40% younger than
19 years and less than 5% over 65. Of the
youth, 2 billion are 19 and younger and
400 million between 15-19
MDCs population structure is more like a
cylinder with many middle-aged and
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Population Pyramids:
Ethiopia vs. U.S., 2005

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6-9

Hidden Momentum of Population Growth

Family planning takes many years to achieve
two-child family and eventually replacement
fertility because todays children are future
parents
In Nigeria, If family planning began in 1990
Two-child family may achieve in 2035 (45 years)
Replacement fertility would eventually reach in
2150 (115 years)
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6-10

Hidden Momentum of Population Growth

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6-11

The Demographic Transition

Stage I: High birthrates and death rates
Stage II: Continued high birthrates; declining
death rates because of improved medicine
Stage III: Falling birthrates and death rates,
eventually stabilizing due to improved
medicine
and
decline
in the fertility rate
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6-12

Demographic Transition in
Western Europe

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Demographic Transition in LDCs

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The Malthusian Trap

Population grows at a geometric ratio
(e.g., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.)
Food supply increases at an arithmetic ratio
(e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.)
Hence, hunger, starvation, and death shall
follow
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The Malthusian Trap

Income growth rate

Growth rate (%)

Growth

5
4

Population growth rate

C
Trap

Trap

2
1

Growth
0

Y0 Y1

Income per capita

Y2

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Y3

Y4

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Criticism of The Malthusian Trap

Rapid income growth due to technological
advancement
Greater food production due to land-intensive
technology and application of modern farm
inputs
Economic growth faster than population
growth, resulting in the rise of per capita
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Criticism of The Malthusian Trap

Growth rate (%)
5

Income growth rate

4
3

Population growth rate

2
1
0
-1
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Income per capita

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Cross-National Evidence
Many LDCs have been able to lower
population growth rate while increasing
income per capita (e.g., China, Sri Lanka,
Chile, Singapore)
Still, there are countries with low or even
negative rate of economic growth, but high
rate of population growth (e.g., Kenya.
Congo, Philippines, Colombia, Venezuela)
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6-19

Microeconomic Theory of Fertility

Demand for Children Equation

Cd f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x 1,..., n

Where
Cd is the demand for surviving children
Y is the level of household income
Pc is the net price of children
Px is price of all other goods
tx is the tastes for goods relative to children
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Microeconomic Theory of Fertility

Demand for Children Equation

Cd f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x 1,..., n

Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:

Cd
0
Y

Cd
0
Px

Cd
0
Pc

Cd
0
tx

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Microeconomic Theory of Fertility

In LDCs, the demand for children is high
because the cost of raising children is low
and they add to the familys workforce to
generate income
In LDCs, children are investment goods
In MDCs, children are consumer goods
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Policies of Fertility Reduction

Improve female education, and economic
and social role and status
Provide of female non-agricultural wage
employment
Rise in family income
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Policies of Fertility Reduction

Reduction in infant mortality, hence demand
for replacement children
Provide old-age income security
Expand schooling opportunities
Establish family planning programs
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Consequences of High Fertility

Population growth isnt a real problem. The problems
are
Poverty and lack of development
World resource depletion and environmental
destruction
Uneven distribution of population
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Subordination
of women
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Consequences of High Fertility

Slow or negative growth of per capita income
Increased poverty and inequality
Inadequate educational and health-care services
Food shortage and hunger
Environmental decay and loss of natural resources
International migration
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Some Policy Approaches

What can LDCs do to reduce fertility?
Improve economic and social equality
Invest in female education and job creation
Educate people about negative consequences of
high fertility rate and provide family planning
programs
Provide incentives to reduce rural-urban migration
and brain drain
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Countries Adopting Family-Planning

Programs, 1960-1990

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Some Policy Approaches

How can MDCs help LDCs reduce fertility?
Improve international economic relations
Research into technology of fertility control
Financial assistance for family planning
programs
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