King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals

Systems Engineering Department

Maintenance Planning Workshop

Dr. Omar Al-Turki
Prof. Salih Duffuaa
Yanbu Maintenance Exchange Meeting
29 th November, 2005

Maintenance Systems
Types:
Planned Maintenance
Routine and preventive maintenance
Scheduled overhauls involving shutdowns
Corrective maintenance
Other scheduled overhaul, repair, building, ..

Emergency / breakdown maintenance

Load: The sum of the two types (uncertain)

Maintenance Planning
Why?
For more effective and efficient maintenance
operations resulting high quality operations

Why?
To achieve organizational objectives: Availability,
Reliability, quality, and delivery dates,

How?
Capacity Planning
Maintenance Planning and Scheduling

Capacity Planning
What?
The determination of the maintenance
resources needed to meet maintenance load.
Manpower (number and skills), overtime capacity,
contract maintenance, healthy level of backlog,
etc.

How?
Maintenance forecasting

Maintenance Forecasting
What?
The estimation and prediction of the
maintenance load

Why?
For better capacity planning

How?
Qualitative techniques
Quantitative techniques

Forecasting Methods Evaluation

Accuracy:

How good it predicts future

Simplicity and data needed

Flexibility:

The ability to adjust to changes in conditions

Selection Considerations
The purpose of the forecast
The time horizon for the forecast
The availability of the data for the
particular approach.

Steps for developing a quantitative forecasting

model
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Identify the item to be forecasted and understand its

nature. Define the purpose of the forecast and its time
horizon.
Screen and validate available data for errors and outliers.
Identify additional data needed and the methodology for
collecting it.
Use the available data and graphical techniques to
hypothesize appropriate models.
Use the major part of the data to estimate the parameters
of the models. Keep part of it for testing and validating the
model.
Test and validate the models and select the most
appropriate one.
Monitor the selected forecasting process and model to
detect out-of-control conditions and find opportunities for
improving forecasting performance.

Identify characteristic/item to
be forecasted. Define
forecasting horizon.

Use qualitative
forecasting.

No

Is historical
data
available?

Yes

Use quantitative
forecasting.

Use historical data and

graphical techniques to
hypothesize statistical models that
appear to
fit the data.
Test and validate
forecasting models
and select the
most appropriate one.

Generate Forecasts.

Monitor and control the

forecasting
process

Estimate model
Parameters.

Qualitative Forecasting Techniques

What?

Estimates of experts and their judgment.

How?

Systematically extract information from the mind of the expert by

using structured questionnaires or interviews.

Why?

Identify which variables influence the forecast and the impact of

each one.

How?

Use cause and effect diagrams and the Delphi method to

identify relationship among the variables.
Get an agreement on the magnitude of the variables.
Best case, expected case and worst case scenarios are usually
used to estimate the magnitude of the variables.
An interactive approach can be used to present arguments to
the expert, such as why his estimate differs from the average
estimate.

Quantitative Forecasting
Techniques
Time-series models
assume future values follow historical trends

Structural models
a predictor (independent) variable exists that
can provide a model or a functional
relationship that predicts the characteristic
under study

Simple Moving Averages

The average of the last n observations
Example 1
If the maintenance load in man-hours for the last 6 months is given as
Month
Maintenance Load

1
200

2
300

3
200

4
400

5
500

6
600

Find the load forecast for periods 7 and 8 using a 3 month moving
average.
400 500 600

x7

The forecasted load for month 7 using is

500

We did not observe x7, so if the load in month 7 is estimated as 500 as

calculated above The forecast for the 8th month is obtained as:

x 8

500 600 500

533..33
3

Weighted Moving Average

Give each observation a different
weight.
x
wx
n

n 1

i 1

Example: Same example with w5 w4 0.25 w6 0.5

x 7 0.25(400) 0.25(500) 0.5(600) 525

x 8 0.25(500) 0.25(600) 0.5(525) 537.5

Regression Analysis
If an independent variable exists that can predict a
characteristic (dependent variable) and a reasonable
correlation exists between the two variables
Example: the cost of maintenance y(t), is a linear function of the
number of operational hours in the previous period, x(t-1).

Then the model would be

x ( t ) a bt
a,b = parameters to be determined

i 1

n tx (t )
t 1

n t

t 1

a x bt

t 1
2

t
t 1

x(t )

Exponential Smoothing

Assigns weights to observations of previous

periods in an inverse proportion to their
age.
x (t ) x (t 1) (1 ) x (t 1)
where
= the forecast for period t and all future periods in the
case of a constant model.
x(t-1) = actual demand at period t-1
x ( t 1) = the forecasted value for t-1
= smoothing constant,

Seasonal Forecasting
1. Plot the data and visually determine clear time-series characteristics.
2. Determine the growth model and remove the growth component from
the data. One way to remove the growth component from the data is to
determine an average period for each cycle and divide each data value
by the average.
3. Determine if a significant seasonality is present in the data as it
appears with the growth component removed (de-growthed). The
seasonality index can be computed by averaging the de-growthed data
over the seasons (periods exhibiting similar behavior).
4. Deseasonalize the original data and analyze the growth factor. A plot of
the deseasonalized data will reveal the form of the growth component.
The deseasonalizing is accomplished by dividing each data by the
appropriate seasonal index.
5. Fit the data by some appropriate method, least squares regression,
exponential smoothing, etc.
6. A forecast for the future consists of a combination of seasonal and
growth trends.

Error Analysis
The following error measures are commonly used for error analysis
and evaluation of forecasting models.
N
1.
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
x(t ) x(t )
MAD

2.

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

MSE

3.

t 1

x(t ) x(t )

t 1

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)

100 N
MAPE

N t 1

4.

Mean Squared Percent Error (MSPE)

100 N x (t ) x (t )
MSPE
x(t )
N t 1

x (t ) x (t )

x(t )

Forecasting Maintenance Work

The load comprises the following:
1. Emergency maintenance workload . This can be forecasted using
actual historical workloads and the appropriate techniques of
forecasting and or management experience. This component of the
load is random and can be minimized by having a well designed
planned maintenance.
2. Preventive maintenance workload . This can be forecasted using
actual historical records coupled with new developed preventive
maintenance programs. This should include routine inspection and
lubrications.
3. Deferred corrective maintenance . This can be forecasted based on
historical records and future plans.
4. A forecast for overhaul removed items and fabrication. This can be
estimated from historical records coupled with future plans for
improvements.
5. Shutdown, turnarounds, and design modifications . This can be
forecasted from actual historical records and the future maintenance
schedule.

Maintenance Capacity Planning

To determine the optimal level of
resources
to meet the forecasted maintenance load
Resources: Workers, skills, spares, inventory
equipments and tools
Load: Future forecast + maintenance backlogs

Steps:
1. Determine the total maintenance load.
2. Estimate the required spares and material to
meet the load.
3. Determine equipment and tools that are
necessary for all types of maintenance work.
4. Determine the skills and the number of crafts
from each skill. A special attention should be
given to multi-skill crafts.
5. Provide special plans for highly computerized
equipment, if required.

Techniques for capacity planning

Heuristics and rules of thumb:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

All priority work is met by regular in-house crafts as much as possible.

If it is not possible to satisfy priority one work by regular in-house crafts
use overtime.
No backlog is allowed for grade 1 work.
The manning level must be determined based on the average
Maintenance load with a healthy backlog from grade 2 work is carried in
the system.
The priority two work is met with overtime or contract maintenance.
The overtime capacity is at most 25% of the regular in-house capacity.

Heuristic tableau approach:

Cr = hourly cost of mechanical trade on regular time
Co = hourly cost of mechanical trade on overtime
Cs = hourly cost of subcontracting
Bt = Backlog in man-hours at the beginning of period t
CRt = capacity of in-house regular time in period t
COt = Capacity of in-house overtime in period t
CSt = capacity of subcontracting in period t
FMt = forecasted maintenance load in period t.

Periods

Period

Capacity

Sources

Regular Time

Cr

CR1

Overtime

Co

CO1

Subcontract

Cs

CS1

Regular Time

Cr +

Cr

CR2

Overtime

Co +

Co

CO2

Subcontract

Cs +

Cs

CS2

Regular Time

Cr + 2

Cr +

Cr

CR3

Overtime

Co +2

Co +

Co

CO3

Subcontract

CS + 2

Cs +2

Cs

CS3

Maintenance load

M1

M2

M3

Solution methods
The least cost heuristic can be used to
find a solution
Linear programming and integer
programming can be used for the optimum
solution.
Stochastic techniques such a simulation
can be used under highly stochastic
conditions.

Maintenance Planning and

Scheduling
Why?
minimizing the idle time of maintenance workers
maximizing the efficient use of work time, material, and
equipment
maintaining the operating equipment at a level that is responsive
to the need of production in terms of delivery schedule and
quality.

How?
1. Determine job content (may require site visits).
2. Develop work plan. This entails the sequence of activities in the job
and establishing the best methods and procedures to accomplish
the job.
3. Establish crew size for the job.

4. Plan and order parts and material.

5. Check if special equipment and tools are needed and
obtain them.
6. Assign workers with the appropriate craft skill.
7. Review safety procedures.
8. Set priorities (emergency, urgent, routine, and
scheduled) for all maintenance work.
9. Assign cost accounts.
10.
Fill the work order.
11.
Review backlog and develop plans for controlling it.
12.
Predict the maintenance load using an effective
forecasting technique.

Who?
Qualifications:

full familiarity with production methods used through

the plant,
sufficient experience to enable him to estimate
labor, material and equipment needed to fill the
work order,
excellent communication skills,
familiarity with planning and scheduling tools,
preferable with some technical education.

Levels of Planning
Three levels of planning:
1. Long range planning (covers a period of five years).
2. Medium range planning (1 month-to one year plans)
3. Short range planning (daily and weekly plans).
For long and medium range planning, the planner needs
to utilize the following methods:
Sound forecasting techniques to estimate the maintenance
load.
Reliable job standard times to estimate manpower
requirements.
Aggregate planning tools such as linear programming to
determine resource requirements.

Scheduling
A reliable schedule must take into consideration the
following:
A job priority ranking that reflects the urgency and the criticality
of the job.
Whether all the material needed for the work order are in the
plant. (If not, the work order should not be scheduled.)
The production master schedule and close coordination with
operation.
Realistic estimates and what is likely to happen rather than what
the scheduler desires.
Flexibility should be built in the schedule. The scheduler must
realize that flexibility is needed and especially in maintenance.
The schedule is often revised and updated.

Weekly schedules
The weekly schedule should allow for about10 15% of the work force to be available for
emergency work.
The work orders that are scheduled for the
current week are sequenced based on priority.
Critical path analysis and integer programming
are techniques that can be used to generate a
schedule.
In most small and medium sized companies,
scheduling is performed based on heuristic rules
and experience.

Daily schedules
The daily schedule is generated from the
weekly schedule and is usually prepared the
day before.
This schedule is frequently interrupted to
perform emergency maintenance.
The established priorities are used to schedule
the jobs.
In some organizations the schedule is handed
to the area foreman and he is given the
freedom to assign the work to his crafts with
the condition that he has to accomplish jobs
according to the established priority.

necessary requirements for effective scheduling.

1. Written work orders that are derived from a well conceived planning process.
The work orders should explain precisely the work to be done, the methods
to be followed, the crafts needed, spare parts needed and priority.
2. Time standards that are based on work measurement techniques as
explained in Chapter 4.
3. Information about craft availability for each shift.
4. Stocks of spare parts and information on restocking.
5. Information on the availability of special equipment and tools necessary for
maintenance work.
6. Access to the plant production schedule and knowledge about when the
facilities may be available for service without interrupting the production
schedule.
7. Well-defined priorities for the maintenance work. These priorities must be
developed through close coordination between maintenance and production.
8. Information about jobs already scheduled that are behind schedule
(backlogs).

Scheduling procedure :
1.
2.
3.
4.

Sort backlog work orders by crafts,

Arrange orders by priority,
Compile a list of completed and carry over jobs,
Consider job duration, location, travel distance, and possibility of
combining jobs in the same area,
5. Schedule multi-craft jobs to start at the beginning of every shift,
6. Issue a daily schedule (except for project and construction work),
and
7. Have a supervisor make work assignments (perform dispatching).
For large jobs or maintenance projects, quantitative techniques for
generating the schedule and balancing manpower requirements
can be used.
Critical Path Analysis (CPM) Program Evaluation and Review
Techniques (PERT), Integer Programming, and Stochastic
Programming.

Maintenance Job Priority System

Priorities are established to ensure that the most
critical and needed work is scheduled first.
The development of a priority system should be
well coordinated with operations staff
The priority system should be dynamic and must
be updated periodically to reflect changes in
operation or maintenance strategies.
Priority systems typically include three to ten
levels of priority. Most organizations adopt four
or three level priorities.

Priority
Code

Name

Time frame work

should start

Type of work

Emergency

Work should start immediately

Work that has an immediate effect on safety,

environment, quality, or will shut down the
operation.

Urgent

Work should start within 24 hours

Work that is likely to have an impact on safety,

environment, quality, or shut down the operation.

Normal

Work should start within 48 hours

Work that is likely to impact the production within a

week.

Scheduled

As scheduled

Preventive maintenance and routine. All programmed

work.

Postponable

Work should start when resources are

available or at shutdown period

Work that does not have an immediate impact on safety,

health, environment, or the production operations.

Scheduling techniques
Gantt charts
Critical Path method (CPM)
Project Evaluation and Review (PERT)
Math Programming
Stochastic Programming

Turn Around Maintenance

A periodic maintenance in which plants are shutdown to
allow for inspections, repairs, replacements and
overhauls that can be carried out only when the assets
(plant facilities) are taken out of service.
During turnaround maintenance, the following types of
work will be performed:

work on equipment which cannot be done unless the whole plant

is shutdown,
work which can be done while equipment is in operation but
requires a lengthy period of maintenance work and a large
number of maintenance personnel,
defects that are pointed out during operation, but could not be
repaired, will be maintained during turnaround period.

The schedule for TA maintenance should

consider the following:
Legal or contractual limitations.
Operation schedule.
Nature of the process.
Enough lead time for preparing an overall
plan, material purchase, and assuming
manpower availability.
Operation schedule of other related industries.

Thank You