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SYSTEM &
DEMAND FORECASTING
CHAPTER 4
BBA-3 R D
SEMESTER
CIT COLLEGE
CONCEPT OF MARKETING
INFORMATION SYSTEM
Marketing information system( MKIS) is the
mechanism for providing decision making information
& data to the marketing decision maker.
MkIS provides a continuous fl ow of information about
prices, advertising, sales, competition & distribution.
It is the major tool for scanning & monitoring the
external environmental forces.
MkIS collects vital information from various source,
analyzes & synthesizes them, and disseminate to the
marketing decision makers. The system provides
valuable information inputs to the organization to
eff ectively implement the marketing concept.
DEFINITIONS
According to Philip Kotler, a marketing information
system consists of people, equipment, and
procedures to gather, sort, analyze, evaluate, and
distribute needed, timely, and accurate information
to marketing decision makers.
According to William J. Stanton marketing
information system is an on-going, organized
procedure to generate, analyze, disseminate, store,
and retrieve information for use in making marketing
decisions,
WHAT IS MKIS?
A marketing information system is a unifi ed system of
interrelated parts to provide information support to
achieve marketing objectives.
It consists of input-processing-output-feedback
components:
FEATURES OF MKIS
A. Inter-related components:
- consists of people, equipment and procedures. Computer
hardware, software and information communication
technology is used to design and deliver it.
B. Processing:
- MkIS collects, processes, analyses, stores, retrieves,
and disseminates information for decision making and
control. Its output consists of various reports.
C. Timeliness:
- MkIS provides right information to right people at right
time. Information if received late has no use.
D. Accuracy:
- MkIS provides accurate and reliable information. Past
and present information are more accurate than future
forecasts.
PREPARED BY: GAURAV BASNET, FOR CIT
COLLEGE
A. I N P U T:
- Bas e d o n th e d a ta b as e o f th e o rg a n i s ati o n .
- C o n s i s ts o f d ata g e n e r ate d fro m ex te rn al & i n te rn al s o u rc e s .
- In te rn a l s o urc e s a re w i th i n th e o rg a n i z ati o n s .
- E x te rn a l s o u rc e s are e n v i ro n m e n t, m a r ke t a n d c o m p e ti to r s .
- N e e d as s e s s m e n t i s d o n e to fi n d d a te re q u i re m e n ts
B. P R O C E S S IN G :
- C o n s i s ts o f ac ti v i ti e s re l ate d to d a ta s o r ti n g , d ata an a l y s i s , d a ta
e v a l u ati n g , d ata s to r a g e , d ata re tr i e v al & i n fo rm ati o n d i s s e m i n a ti o n .
- T h e i n fo rm a ti o n i s ti m e l y , u p -to - da te a n d ac c u r a te . I ts fl o w i s
c o n tin u o u s .
C. OUTPUT:
It consists of regular and special reports needed for
marketing decision making . It is information dissemination.
D. FEEDBACK:
It provides information to redesign input & processing to
meet changing needs of marketing.
-People, equipment and procedures are needed for the
development & management of MKIS.
-Information technology, especially the internet and
computer, play an important role in its operation.
-MKIS should be tailor-made according to the organizational
needs. Information overload should be avoided. It should be
cost-eff ective.
PREPARED BY: GAURAV BASNET, FOR CIT
COLLEGE
CONTD..
E. Consistency:
MkIS provides consistent information. All data is
based on same defi nition, assumptions and time
period.
F. Accessibility:
- MkIS is easily accessible. The information is
properly secured.
- But it is easily available to authorized persons.
Information communication technology has facilitated
accessibility.
- It also avoids information overload.
COMPONENTS OF MARKETING
INFORMATION SYSTEM
b. Sales Reports:
- sales reports submitted by sales force provide
information about performance of brands, sales trends
and customer expectations.
c. Other Records:
- Annual reports, fi nancial statements, audit
reports, and special reports also provide useful
information.
- Previous market research reports are also useful.
2. MARKETING INTELLIGENCE
SYSTEM
The marketing intelligence system provides
information about everyday happenings in the
marketing environment. It is based on environmental
scanning.
According to Philip Kotler, Marketing Intelligence
System, is a set of procedures & sources used by
managers to obtain everyday information about
pertinent development in the marketing
environment.
The sources of marketing intelligence are:
a. Marketing Managers:- they read books, newspapers, and trade
publications.
- talk with customers,
suppliers, distributors and
PREPARED BY: GAURAV BASNET, FOR CIT
COLLEGE
personnel within the organization
to gather
b. Sales Force:
- They spot & report new developments in the market
place. Organizations train & motivate them for
marketing intelligence purposes.
c. Middlemen:
- They handle several products and usually know in
advance about competitors moves. They can provide
vital market information.
d. Specialists:
- They are appointed to gather market intelligence.
They even pose as mystery shoppers to assess how
employees treat customers or how competitors price
their products.
PREPARED BY: GAURAV BASNET, FOR CIT
COLLEGE
e. Outsourcing:
- Commercial detectives are hired to gather specifi c
information. Data can be purchased from research
fi rms which specialize in supplying information at low
cost.
f. Marketing information section:
- Organizations can establish a Marketing
information section for marketing intelligence. It
formally scans the environment to gather information.
It also surfs the internet to gather data.
3. DECISION SUPPORT
SYSTEM( DSS)
According to William Stanton , A decision support
system is a procedure that allows a manager to
interact with data and methods of analysis to gather,
analyze, and interpret information.
DSS does not collect information. It stores, analyses
and synthesizes the collected information. It has
three components
a) Data bank:
- DSS consists of a Data bank.
- It stores diff erent types of data collected from various
sources such as internal reports, market intelligence and
market research.
- They are data about customers, competitors,
environmental trends, organizations performance, etc.
- It is the data base stored in computers.
b) Methods bank:
- DSS has methods bank for analyzing data which range
from simple procedures to sophisticated tools
- It is statistical bank. For eg; Multiple regression, factor
analysis etc.
c) Model Bank:
- They consist of various models that facilitate
decision making.
- Models defi ne the interrelationships between
diff erent variables that help decision makers to
understand, predict and control marketing problems.
- Model Bank consists of :
i) Models: They can be:
# Markov Model
# Queuing Model
# New Product Pretest Models
# Sales Response Models
PREPARED BY: GAURAV BASNET, FOR CIT
COLLEGE
4. MARKETING RESEARCH
Research is systematic gathering of information.
MR is a systematic inquiry undertaken to help resolve a
specifi c marketing problem.
Its is to guide marketing decisions by generating
information. It provides alternatives for making the choice.
It is a tool for identifying market opportunities to formulate
market strategy and to minimise threats. It is problemoriented.
FEATURES OF MARKETING
RESEARCH:
1. Systematic: step-by-step process, properly planned
& implemented
2. Objective: Unbiased. Its objective is collecting,
analyzing, interpreting and reporting data.
3. Problem- oriented: deals with specifi c marketing
problems.
4. Decision making: helps make timely marketing
decisions.
II.
C. RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS
Used for collecting primary data.
They can be:
I. Questionnaire: is a set of questions presented to
respondents for their answers. Should be carefully
constructed. Questions may be:
II.
D. SAMPLING
Is method of selecting units from total population. It
decides:
Sampling unit: who used to be researched?
Sample size: how many people should be researched?
Sampling procedure: how should the representative
respondents be chosen?
Probability sampling is done to obtain representative
random sample. None probability sampling methods are
used too.
E. CONTACT METHOD
Decides how respondent should be contacted?
It can be:
Mail method: questionnaire are mailed to respondents.
Interview: personal or telephone interview is conducted
Computer: email, fax or online computer is used to get
responses.
F. ANALYTICAL TOOLS
Tools for analysing information are identifi ed. They
are statistical tools like mean, regression, correlation,
analysis of variance, chi square etc
6. REPORT FINDINGS
Research fi ndings are reported to relevant clients in
form of written report and oral presentation.
It should be noted that market research cant replace
sound judgement. Facts provided by marketing
research should be blended with judgement to make
eff ective marketing decisions.
TRENDS IN MARKETING
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Information technology consists of :
a)
b)
c)
TRENDS:
- A trend is a direction or sequence of events that have some
momentum & durability. IT has opened a whole range of new
possibilities & facilities for marketing.
5.GROWING ELECTRONIC
MARKETING( E-COMMERCE)
IT is changing how marketing people communicate. Ecommerce, ( Electronic-commerce) has been
revolutionizing marketing. Online sales transactions
through websites are increasing for:
6.GREATER EMPHASIS ON
RELATIONSHIP MARKETING
Relationship marketing is building long term mutually
satisfying relations with customers to earn and retain
their long term loyalty. Both parties collaborate in
identifying needs & developing & updating marketing
mixes.
The marketing information needs are not carefully assessed. Adhoc managerial decisions generally determine such needs.
CONTD
DEMAND
FORECASTING:
CURRENT & FUTURE
MARKET DEMAND
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COLLEGE
DEMAND
Fo r ex a m p l e : Ka t h m a n d u v a l l e y h a s
10% of Nepals population
20% of Nepals disposable income
4 0 % o f N e p a l s re t a i l s a l e s
The
0.2
0.4
0.4
T h e m u l t i p l e f a c t o r i n d ex f o r Ka t h m a n d u v a l l e y w i l l b e :
( 0.2 x 10) + ( 0.4 x 20) + ( 0.4 x 40) = 26
2 6 % o f N e p a l s t o t a l m e d i c i n e s a l e s c a n b e ex p e c t e d i n Ka t h m a n d u v a l l e y
T h i s m e t h o d i s u s e d f o r c o n s u m e r m a r ke t s . H o w e v e r , i t m a y n o t c o n s i d e r a l l
re l e v a n t f a c t o r s . T h e a s s i g n m e n t o f w e i g h t s c a n b e a r b i tr a r y.
2. METHODS OF ESTIMATING
FUTURE MARKET DEMAND
2.1 : Process of Estimating future market demand
In most markets, demand is not stable.
Estimating future demand is a key factor in
organizational success.
The process generally followed for estimating future
demand consists of three stages;
Macroeconomi
c forecast
Industry Sales
forecastP
Company Sales
Forecast
A. MACROECONOMIC FORECAST
This consists of a forecast of Gross National Product
( GNP) based on the projection of the following
macroeconomic variables:
Executive
Judgement
Survey
Buyers
intention
Future
demand
estimat
es
Past Sales
Analysis
Sales force
opinions
Expert
Opinions
Market Test
A. EXECUTIVE JUDGEMENT
This method involves obtaining opinions from
executives regarding future sales. The opinions are
based on intuition and experience.
Advantages
It is simple and inexpensive
It is useful for products with relatively stable demand.
It is useful where past sales data is lacking.
Disadvantages
It is risky and unscientifi c.
It is based on past experience. Recent past experience
generally infl uences the forecast.
B. SURVEYS
Surveys are based on what people say. This is found
by asking questions. They can be of three types.
Disadvantages
- Buyer intentions may not result in actual
purchases.
- Selecting a representative sample can be a
problem.
- It is time consuming
- The estimates of demand may be infl ated by
customers.
II. Composite of sales Force Opinions:
Sales persons are asked to estimate future sales
in their territory. Each salesperson estimates how
much each current and potential customer will buy
each product in a specified future time. The
composite of estimates by all salespersons becomes
BASNET, FOR CIT
future demand. PREPARED BY: GAURAV
COLLEGE
CONTD..
Advantages:
- It is a bottom-up approach. Salespersons possess
specialized knowledge and better insight of future
sales trends in their territories.
- Participative decision making in sales forecasting
motivates salespersons to accept and eff ectively
achieve sales quota.
- It is useful for markets composed of few large
customers.
Disadvantages:
- Salespersons may be unaware of macroeconomic
changes that can aff ect future demand. They may lack
time or needed expertise.
PREPARED BY: GAURAV BASNET, FOR CIT
COLLEGE
Advantages:
- It pools judgement of experts to make future sales
estimates.
Disadvantages:
- Participants may lack necessary information for
making judgement.
CONTD..
DISADVANTAGES
- Market test is expensive and time consuming.
- Consumer response in the test market may not
represent the total market response.
CONTD..
ii. Statistical demand analysis:
It measures the impact level of each of a set of casual
factors on sales level. The casual factor can be:
Income
Price
Marketing expenditure etc.
iii. Econometric analysis:
It consists of building sets of equations that describe a
system and proceeding to fi t the parameters statistically.
- Computerised data analysis is helpful for estimating
future demand
THE END