Lecture

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FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES

Forecasting Earthquakes: Earlier Methods

Strange Animal Behavior
Stress in the rocks causes tiny hairline fractures. Cracking of
the rocks emits high pitched sounds and minute vibrations
imperceptible to humans but noticeable by many animals.
Unusual Weather Conditions and Clouds
A few scientists claim to have observed clouds associated
with a seismic event, sometimes more than 50 days in
advance of the earthquake.
Foreshocks
Foreshocks are minor tremors of the earth that precede a
larger earthquake originating at approximately the same
location. Unusual increase in the frequency of these
foreshocks are sign for an earthquake.
Changes in water level
porosity increases or decreases with changes in strain,

Forecasting Earthquakes: Recent Developments

Changes in Seismic Velocities
Earthquakes are often accompanied by temporal changes in
seismic wave velocities in the region
Radon Emission
Emission of radon gas as a quake precursor is recently being
explored by the geophysicists for developing a worldwide
seismic early warning system
The Van Method
The method is based on the detection of "seismic electric
signals" (SES) via a telemetric network of conductive metal
rods inserted in the ground. Researchers have claimed to be
able to predict earthquakes of magnitude larger than 5 using
this method.
Geodetic Measurements
Laser geodimeter measures changes in distance across the 3

Seismic gap
Asegmentofanactiveplateboundarythat,relativetorestoftheboundary,
hasnotrecentlyrupturedandisconsideredtobemorelikelytoproducean
earthquakeinthefutureiscalledaseismicgap.
Theseismicgaptheorystatesthatasegmentofaplateboundarythathasnot
rupturedrecentlyhasthegreatestchanceofrupturinginthefuturerelativeto
othersegmentsthathaveexperiencedlargeearthquakes.Thisisbasedonthe
recognitionthattectonicplatesmoverelativetooneanotheratan
approximatelyconstantspeedandtheassumptionthattheslipofplate
boundaryfaultsoccursprimarilyduringmajorearthquakes.
Someearthquakeforecastingmodelsuseseismicgapforpredictions.

Prediction of Earthquakes
Earthquake prediction is a prediction that an
earthquake of a specific magnitude will occur in a
particular place at a particular time range. Despite
considerable research efforts by seismologists,
scientifically reproducible predictions cannot yet be
made to a specific day or month.
Most useful way of predicting a future earthquake is in
terms of probabilities. For well-understood faults
seismic hazard assessment maps can estimate the
probability that an earthquake of a given size will
affect a given location over a certain number of
years.
Experts do advise general earthquake preparedness,
especially in areas known to experience frequent 5or

Prediction of Earthquakes

Seismic hazard map

of the San Francisco
Bay Area, showing
the probability of a
major earthquake
occurring by 2032

Source: USGS public domain

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First Successful Prediction

Earthquake prediction has taken a scientific turn in
late 1970s.
The first successful prediction was made in China in
winter 1975 for the city of Haicheng (population
about 1 million).
Scientists observed changes in land elevation and
ground water levels in that region over a period of
time. A regional increase in foreshocks had triggered
a low-level alert.
Based on the reports from scientists, Chinese officials
had ordered the evacuation of the city. On February
4, 1975, earthquake of magnitude 7.3 struck the
region. Only very small fraction (2,041 people) died in
this event. The number of fatalities and injuries would
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Sensing the Earthquakes

The energy released during the earthquake
travels in the form of seismic waves
Modern Seismographs can sense the
occurrence, intensity and duration of these
waves in different directions.
Seismogram is the visual record of arrival
time and magnitude of shaking associated
with seismic wave, generated by a
seismograph.

First Seismograph
The first seismograph called Di-Dong-Di was
invented by Cheng Heng (132 A.D.) of China.

Source: wikipedia

First Seismograph
The ancient Chinese seismograph consist
of a special vase that had eight sculpted
dragons mounted around the vase in eight
primary directions. Each dragon held in its
mouth a metal ball. When the ground
shook, some of the balls would fall from
the mouths of the dragons into the waiting
mouths of the sculpted frogs to show how
the ground had moved.

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Earlier Seismographs

Vertic
al

Source: google images

Horizon
tal

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Earlier Seismographs

Source: wikipedia

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Principle of Seismographs
Seismographs are designed so that slight earth vibrations move
the instrument. The suspended mass remains at rest as the
spring absorbs some of the motion. The stylus (pen) affixed to the
mass, records the relative motion between itself and the rest of
the instrument, thus recording the ground motion.

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Modern Seismometer

Source: wikipedia

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Principle of Modern Seismometer

Modern seismometers use electronics.
In some systems, the mass is held nearly
motionless relative to the frame by an
electronic negative feedback loop. The motion
of the mass relative to the frame is measured,
and the feedback loop applies a magnetic or
electrostatic force to keep the mass nearly
motionless. The voltage needed to produce
this force is the output of the seismometer,
which is recorded digitally.
In other systems the weight is allowed to
move, and its motion produces a voltage in a
coil attached to the mass and moving through
the magnetic field of a magnet attached to the
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frame. Professional seismic observatories

Seismogram

Source: google images

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PROTECTING AGAINST EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE

Prepare a Seismic Risk Map for the globe which
identifies rock types, liquefaction potential, landslide
potential.
Extensive geologic surveying has to be done to
identify all active faults, including hidden faults.
Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures
Enact building codes to design and build
earthquake-resistant structures in high seismic
risk areas. wood, steel and reinforced concrete
are preferred as they tend to move with the
shaking ground (unreinforced concrete and heavy
masonry tend to move independently and in
opposition to the shaking, battering one another
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until the structure collapses)

References

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/scienceenvironment17487482(Article:Could
GPSbeusedtopredictearthquakes?)

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/pressrelease.html(Officialpress
releaseofParkfieldearthquakeprediction)

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/animalssenseearthquakes14375060
(Videoofanimalssensingearthquakesearly)

Rikitake,T.(1966).Afiveyearplanforearthquakepredictionresearchin
Japan.Tectonophysics3:115

Tsunogai,U.&Wakita,H.(1995).Precursorychemicalchangesinground
water:Kobeearthquake,Japan.Science,269(5220):6163
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