A Look Ahead

We will now turn our attention to

several tools and techniques associated
with Project Time Management
First, we will consider:
PERT & CPM Historical Perspective
Overview of Sequencing Techniques
ADM: Arrow Diagramming Method
Determining the Critical Path
download ADM_Class_Example.doc

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A Look Ahead
(continued)
After that, we will continue our
exploration of tools and techniques
by considering:
The Concept of Float
download ADM_Float_Calcs.xls

Probabilistic Activity Duration Estimates

download ADM_Mean_Variance.xls

Probabilistic Project Completion

download ADM_Standard_Normal_Table.xls
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PERT/CPM
Some History
PERT was first used in the late 1950s by
the Navy for the Polaris Missile Program
PERT => Project Evaluation & Review Technique

Development was in conjunction with the

consulting firm of Booz, Allen, and Hamilton
Development was designed to meet the
needs of the age of massive engineering
The Navy was concerned with performance
trends on large military projects.
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PERT/CPM
Some History (continued)
Virtually simultaneously CPM was
developed by the duPont Company and
Remington-Rand-Univac.
CPM => Critical Path Method

For use on large construction projects

Specifically targeted for process industries

The two groups were unaware of each

other's existence until about 1960.
By then, each stood on its own merits
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PERT/CPM
Some History (continued)
PERTs strengths are in its use of
probabilistic estimates of activity
durations
CPMs strengths are in its ability to do
time-cost trade-offs
Today, PERT/CPM are widely recognized
as comprising one set of techniques
the differences are primarily viewed as only
of historical importance
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Activity Sequencing
Display Techniques
There are many suitable techniques
for displaying the sequence of
activities involved in a project

Gantt Charts
Precedence Diagramming
Arrow Diagramming
Conditional Diagrams

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Gantt Charts
Gantt charts use horizontal bars (or lines)
to represent activities
Gantt charts are more commonly used for
schedule display than activity sequencing
see BOK Figure 6-6 (1996 & 2000) for an example
length of the bars show expected duration
activity inter-relationships are not explicitly shown

we will see Gantt Charts again when we

consider Resource Loading & Leveling
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The Precedence
Diagramming Method
The Precedence Diagramming
Method (PDM) uses boxes to
represent activities and arrows to
represent dependencies
see BOK Figure 6-2 (1996 & 2000 for an
example

This technique is also known as the

Activity-on-Node (AON) Diagramming
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More on PDM
Dependencies can include:

Finish-to-Start
Finish-to-Finish
Start-to-Start
Start-to-Finish
Dependencies are usually indicated by the placement of
the arrow heads and tails relative to the nodes but no
consistent approach has been universally adopted.

Looping and Conditional Branching is

not allowed
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The Arrow Diagramming

Method (ADM)
The Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
uses the following conventions:
Arrows represent activities
"Regular" activities require time and resources
"Dummy" activities show precedence relationships

Nodes represent events

A point in time
Some nodes may represent milestone events

see BOK Figure 6-3 (1996 & 2000) for an

example
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More on ADM
Also known as Activity-on-Arrow (AOA)
Each activity is represented by one and
only one arrow in the network.
Nodes (events) are numbered uniquely.
Duplicate node numbers are not allowed

No two activities can be identified by

the same beginning and ending nodes.
Dummy activities may be required
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More on ADM
(continued)
Before an activity can begin, all
activities terminating at the activities
beginning node must be completed.
Neither the length of an activity arrow
nor its compass direction have any
significance.
Networks should (must) have only one
initial event and one terminal event.
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An Example to Try:
Draw an Arrow Diagram
A project consists of Activities A, B, C, D, E,
F, G, H, I, J, K, and L
A, B, and C, the 1st activities of the project, can
start simultaneously
A and B precede D
B precedes E, F, and H
F and C precede G
E and H precede I and J
C, D, F, and J precede K
K precedes L
I, G, and L are terminal activities for the project
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Lets Examine the Example

Solution
Solution to be shown in class.

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Conclusion of Sequencing
Techniques
Well return to ADM in just a few
minutes but first lets complete the
set of sequencing techniques by
considering Conditional
Diagramming

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Conditional Diagramming
Conditional Diagramming methods allow
for probabilistic activities and looping
neither of these are allowed in traditional PDM
or ADM

Conditional diagramming techniques

include Graphical Evaluation and Review
Technique (GERT) and System Dynamics
these are beyond the scope of this course

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Activity Durations
The next logical step in Project Time
Management is to determine activity
durations.
We are going to defer a detailed
discussion of estimating activity
durations until later in the course.
At this point we need to introduce the
concept of the Critical Path of a project.
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The Concept of the

Critical Path
The determination of the start and
completion time of each activity on
the network diagram requires a
special calculation procedure.
This approach classifies each activity
as either critical or non-critical.
The approach is commonly known as
the Critical Path Method
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The Concept of the

Critical Path (continued)
A delay in the start or completion of a
critical path activity will cause a delay
in the completion of the entire project.
Non-critical path activities can absorb
some delay in start or completion
without impacting project completion.
The amount of delay which can be
absorbed is known as slack or float.
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The Concept of the

Critical Path (continued)
There will always be at least one
sequence of activities from the initial
node to the terminal node that is
made up entirely of critical activities.
This is known as the Critical Path of
the Project.
Any delay of a critical path activity will
delay the completion of the project.
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The Concept of the

Critical Path (continued)
The critical path defines the minimal
completion time for the project.
Multiple critical paths are possible.
Complete multiple critical paths
two or more critical paths exist from the initial
node to the terminal node of the project.

rare in uncrashed networks, common in fully crashed

Partial multiple critical paths

two or more sets of parallel activities are critical
over some segment of the project.
relatively common

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Determining the Critical

Path
The critical path is found by a two
phase methodology after activity
durations have been determined.
A forward pass is made through the
network diagram to determine the
earliest start time for each node.
A backward pass is made through the
network to determine the latest
completion time for each node.
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Determining the Critical

Path (continued)
This is best illustrated through an example.
Mathematical details in SPM_PERT&CPM_Math

An ADM diagram for a project is shown on

the following page
the activities themselves are not labeled, we
will use the (start node, end node) pair to
uniquely identify activities (e.g., (0,1))
duration estimates are indicated

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Class Example
Critical Path Calculations
4

2
2

0
3
2

1
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2
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Forward Pass and

Backward Pass
Solution to be shown in class.

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The Critical Path

An activity lies on the critical path if it
meets the three following conditions:
The earliest start and latest completion for
the activitys terminal node are equal;
The earliest start and latest completion for
the activitys initial node are equal;
The difference between the earliest start
of the terminal node and the earliest start
of the initial node is the activity duration.
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The Critical Path

(continued)
Lets re-examine the example for the
critical path.
Solution to be shown in class.

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