Lecture 2: Natural Hazard and

Disaster Management

History of natural hazards

disasters in the Caribbean

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Hazard
Hazard: A potentially damaging physical
event, phenomenon or human activity,
which may cause the loss of life or injury,
property damage, social and economic
disruption or environmental degradation.

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Hazards
Hazards can include latent conditions that may represent
future threats. They can be natural in origin (geological,
hydro-meteorological and biological) and/or induced by
human processes (environmental degradation and
technological hazards). Hazards can be single,
sequential or combined in their origin and effects. Each
hazard is characterized by its location, intensity and
probability.

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Natural hazards such as flood, fire, earthquake,

tornado, and windstorms affect thousands of
people every year. We need to know what our
risks are from natural hazards and take
sensible precautions to protect ourselves, our
families, and our communities.

Natural Hazard

Naturally occurring phenomenon

Potential danger to life and property
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Natural disaster
A natural disaster is the consequence of
the combination of a natural hazard (a
physical event e.g. volcanic eruption,
earthquake, landslide) and human
activities.
Associated with great
losses and suffering
Human
Economic
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Natural disaster

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Mt. Pinatuba eruption 1991

Resulted in el nino la nina effect

Impacted on air traffic for years

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Catastrophe
An event resulting in great loss and misfortune
ISO defines a catastrophe as an event that
causes $25 million or more in insured property
losses and affects a significant number of
property/casualty policyholders and insurers.

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The Caribbean and disasters

Most disaster victims live in developing
countries, where poverty and population
pressures force growing numbers of people
to live in harm's way.

Read:
An Increasing Vulnerability to Natural
Disasters
By Kofi A. Annan
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The 1902 eruption-: Mt.Pelee (source

USGS)

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May 7, 1902:
Volcanic eruption buries Caribbean city

On this day in 1902, Martinique's Mount Pele begins the deadliest volcanic eruption of the 20th century. The
following day, the city of Saint Pierre, which some called the Paris of the Caribbean, was virtually wiped off the
map.

Mount Pele, the name meaning bald in French, was a 4,500-foot mountain on the north side of the Caribbean
island of Martinique. On April 2, 1902, new steam vents were spotted on the peak, which overlooked the port city
of Saint Pierre. Three weeks later, tremors were felt on the island and Mount Pele belched up a cloud of ash.

Caught up in the midst of an important election, residents of Saint Pierre failed to heed the mountain's warnings
and evacuate. The nearby residents mistakenly believed that the only danger from the volcano was lava flow and
that if lava started to flow, they would have plenty of time to flee to safety. In fact, some people came from outside
the city to view the action, even after ash from the eruption began to block roads.
On May 7, activity on the volcano increased dramatically and the blasts grew significantly stronger. Overnight,
there were several strong tremors and a cloud of gas with a temperature of more than 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit
spilled out of the mountain. Finally, a tremendous blast in the early morning hours sent an avalanche of boiling
ash down the side of the mountain.
The city of Saint Pierre was buried within minutes and virtually everyone died instantly. There were only two
reported survivors--one was a prisoner held in an underground cell. Legend has it that he went on to be a circus
attraction. In addition, 15 ships in the harbor were capsized by the eruption. One ship managed to stay afloat with
half the crew surviving, although most suffered serious burns.
Vulcanologists are still unsure about exactly what causes volcanic eruptions and how they can be predicted.

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Reading
https://suite101.com/a/1902-eruption-ofmt-pelee-west-indies-a74962

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Montserrat volcano

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Montserrat

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How are volcanoes formed?

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Impacts

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Impacts

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Soufriere St. Vincent

Photograph by
Richard Fiske, April
22, 1979
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St VincentSuofriere

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1979 Eruption

St Vincent

Explosions and lava extrusion

accompanied the last eruption of the
volcano in 1979.
Powerful explosions from Soufrire in
April 1979 produced large ash clouds
and pyroclastic avalanches, forcing the
evacuation of more than 17,000 persons
from the northern end of St. Vincent. The
largest hot pyroclastic avalanche flowed
down the Larikai River valley 14 April
1979 and continued several kilometers
out to sea. A lava dome grew in the
crater until late October 1979.

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2005 Sulphurous
Odours
In February 2005
sulphurous odours and
haze was reported on the
island of St. Vincent and
as far as the Grenadines
50-75 km south. This
resulted from changes in
wind patterns rather than
increased gas output

E. J. Peters

St. Vincent eruptions

1979, 1971-72, 1902-03, 1880, 1814, 1812, 1784,

1718.
1640 50, 1550 50, 1480 150, 1395 75,
1325 75, 905 AD 75, 530 BC 75, 750 BC
100, 1600 BC 75, 2020 BC 75, 2135 BC 50,
2200 BC 150, 2310 BC 100, 2380 BC 100.

http://www.volcanolive.com/stvincent.html
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Damage after the 1902 eruption, St.

Vincent

Reading: The eruption of Soufrire volcano, St Vincent April-June 1979

J. B. Shepherd, W. P. Aspinall, K. C. Rowley, J. Pereira, H. Sigurdsson, R. S.
Fiske, J. F. Tomblin
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Earthquakes -Jamaica

http://jamaicagleaner.com/page
s/history/story001.
html
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Port Royal before and after

1692

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Impacts to humans

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Impact -tourism

Source:http://www.bing.com/images/search?
q=jamaica+earthquake+1692&qpvt=jamaica+earthquake+1692&FORM=IGRE#vi
ew=detail&id=6C9397FB5AF7331961C9A1D3778C8204B958405F&selectedInde
x=31

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Earthquake Haiti 2010

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A Haitian man tries to rescue a live teacher

trapped amid the rubble of the earthquake
as he crawls past a schoolgirl that died at
Ecole St. Gerard on January 14, 2010 in
Port-au-Prince, Haiti. (Photo by Carol

A man uses a sledgehammer to try

and break through the rubble in Portau-Prince, Haiti, on Tuesday, January
19. Haitian authorities have recorded
72,000 deaths so far. source CNN

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Earthquake impacts
suffering

Damage to infrastructure/buildings

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Discuss some of the social

impacts

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Hurricanes and tropical storms

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Grenada after Ivan 2004

E. J. Peters 2014

31

2013 Xmas
storm SVG

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St Vincent 2013

E. J. Peters 2014

33

Impacts Xmas St
Vincent 2013

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Reading available on the server

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Risks indicies
In order to improve understanding of the
relationship between development
and disaster risk at the global level, UNDP
has begun development of a
Disaster Risk Index (DRI).

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Disaster Risk and the Millennium

Development Goals
A considerable incentive for rethinking disaster risk as an integral part of the development
process comes from the aim of achieving the goals laid out in the Millennium Declaration.
The Declaration sets forth a road map for human development supported by 191nations.
Eight Millennium Development Goals were agreed upon in 2000, which in turn have been
broken down into 18 targets with 48 indicators for progress.
Most goals are set for achievement by 2015.
The MDGs contain cross-cutting themes in development and disaster risk policy, each tied to
specific targets and indicators for progress.

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Disaster Risk and the MDGs

Eight Millennium Development Goals were
agreed upon in 2000, which in turn have been
broken down into 18 targets with 48 indicators
for progress.
Most goals are set for achievement by 2015.
The MDGs contain cross-cutting themes in
development and disaster risk policy, each tied
to specific targets and indicators for progress.
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Future natural catastrophes

where would they come from?

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What makes SIDS vulnerable?

The extent of their vulnerability is determined
by the frequency and impact of shocks and
their resource base (resilience) to withstand
those shocks
susceptibility to natural disasters
Remoteness and isolation,
limited diversification,
poverty and limited capacity
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Risk
The chance that harm will actually occur
a hazard exists where an object (or substance)
or situation has a built-in ability to cause an
adverse effect. Risk, on the other hand, is
the chance that such effects will occur: the
risk can be high or negligible
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Quantifying risks
LIKELIHOOD is expressed as either a frequency or a probability.

Frequency is a measure of the rate at which events occur over time

(e.g., events/year, incidents/year, deaths/year, etc.). Probability is a
measure of the rate of a possible event expressed as a fraction of the
total number of events (e.g., one-in-a-million, 1/1,000,000, or 1X10-3).
CONSEQUENCE is the direct effect of an event, incident or accident. It
is expressed as a health effect (e.g., death, injury, exposure), property
loss, environmental effect, evacuation, or quantity spilled.

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Risk
Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability
Capacity
Risk: The probability of harmful consequences,
or expected loss (of lives, people injured,
property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted
or environment damaged) resulting from
interactions between natural or human induced
hazards and vulnerable/capable conditions.

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Different views of risk analysis

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS incorporates numerical estimates
of frequency or probability and consequence. In practice a sophisticated
analysis of risk requires extensive data which are expensive to acquire or
often unavailable. Fortunately few decisions require sophisticated
quantification of both frequency and consequences.
RELATIVE RISK ANALYSIS means that a risk is evaluated in
comparison to another risk. The type of risk analysis used should be
appropriate for the available data and to the exposure, frequency and
severity of potential loss
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Dealing with risks

Hazard analysis
Specific risk
Acceptable risk
Risk assessment /analysis
Risk reduction
Risk management

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Analysis /Assessment
HAZARD ANALYSIS is the identification of
material properties, system elements or
events that lead to harm or loss. The term
hazard analysis may also include
evaluation of consequences from an event
or incident.
RISK ANALYSIS is the study of risk in
order to understand and quantify risk so it
can be managed.
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Natural disasters in the

Caribbean
Discussion
Reading:

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Assignment:
1. Find and the paper by Kofi Anan
2. Look for the main components in
computing DRI

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