Net speculative length declined modestly by 8,841 contracts, but remains elevated.

This data is probably misleading because there

was some serious carnage after this reported data (Tuesday). This data demonstrates why the market could fall $60/oz in three days:
there were still plenty of speculators long and wrong. I’m expecting a bigger decline in net length by the next week’s report.

350000

Net Speculative Length

300000
(Comex Futures Contracts)
250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

-50000

-100000
1/2/2001
5/2/2001

9/2/2001
1/2/2002
5/2/2002
9/2/2002
1/2/2003
5/2/2003

9/2/2003
1/2/2004
5/2/2004

9/2/2004
1/2/2005

5/2/2005

1/2/2006

5/2/2006
9/2/2006
1/2/2007
5/2/2007

9/2/2007

1/2/2008
5/2/2008

9/2/2008
1/2/2009
5/2/2009

9/2/2009
9/2/2005

1/2/2010
Source: CFTC
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 The most notable features of this week’s data was the fact the British Pound lost it’s status as most hated currency. There was some
definite short covering in that currency--perhaps the hedge fund community is eye-balling that huge triangle/pennant on the daily chart?
The Aussie $ continue to attract much love and adoration. Some sort of serious decline the Aussie should not surprise.

6
5.33
Ratio of Speculative Longs vs.Shorts (CME) ~ 19 Jan 10
5
4.36
4.05
4
3.57 3.54

3 2.61

1 0.8
0.63 0.59

0
Gold Aussie Silver Canadian New Swiss Euro British Japanese
Dollar Dollar Zealand Franc Pound Yen
Dollar

Source: CFTC
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 The precious metals remain the favored currency among the speculative crowd. The most noteworthy change in the last two weeks is
the fondness of the Swissy over the Euro. Typically, these currencies trade together, but in the last two weeks speculators became
much more bullish on the Swiss Franc, while still mildly bearish on the Euro. The Sterling maintains its status as the most hated
currency.

6
5.39
Ratio of Speculative Longs vs.Shorts (CME) ~ 12 Jan 10
5
4.59

3.97
4 3.64 3.54

3
2.32

1 0.88
0.54 0.42

0
Gold Silver Aussie Canadian New Swiss Euro Japanese British
Dollar Dollar Zealand Franc Yen Pound
Dollar

Source: CFTC
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical
commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s interpretation of technical analysis. The
author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of
what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from
sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy
or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading
involves risk and is not for everyone.

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