The Human Population: Growth,

Demography, and Carrying Capacity

G. Tyler Millers
Living in the Environment
12th Edition
Chapter 11
Dr. Richard Clements
Chattanooga State Technical Community College

Key Concepts
Factors affecting human population size
Human population problems
Managing population growth

Factors Affecting Human

Population Size
Population change equation
Population
Change

(Births + Immigration) (Deaths + Emigration)

Zero population growth (ZPG)

Crude birth rate (BR) =
births per 1000 population
Crude death rate (DR) =
deaths per 1000 population

Natural Rate of Increase

Annual world
population growth

<1%

1-1.9%
2-2.9%
3+%
Data not
available
Fig. 11.3, p. 240

Fertility Rates
Replacement-level fertility Total fertility rate (TFR)

Births per woman

<2

4-4.9

2-2.9

5+

3-3.9

No
Data

Fig. 11.8, p. 242

Births per thousand population

Factors Affecting BR and TFR

See bulleted list in text p. 243
US BRs and TFRs
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16 Demographic
transition Depression
14
0
1910
1920
1930
1940

World War II
Baby boom
1950

1960
Year

Baby bust Echo baby boom

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Fig. 11.11, p. 243

see Fig. 11-10 p. 243

Birth rate and fertility rate influenced by

Importance of children as part of labor force

Urbanization
Cost of raising and education children
Education and employment opportunities
for women
Infant mortality rate
Average age at marriage

Birth rate and fertility rate influenced by

Availability of pensions
Availability of reliable birth control
Availability of legal abortions
Religious beliefs and traditions
Cultural norms

Useful indicators of overall

health of a country

Life expectancy Infant mortality rate (IMR)

Infant deaths
per 1,000 live births

<10
<10-35
<36-70
<71-100
<100+
Data not
available

Fig. 11.14, p. 246

Factors affecting death rates

People live longer because of

Increased food supplies and distribution

Better nutrition
Better health care - types of and access to
medicine, immunizations, antibiotics, prenatal care
Improved sanitation and personal hygiene prevents spread of infectious diseases that may kill early in
life
Safer water supplies
prevents spread of infectious diseases that may kill early in
life

Factors Affecting Natural Rate of

Increase
Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate = crude death rate

Developed Countries

30

Rate of
natural
increase

20
10

50

Crude
birth rate

40

Rate of
natural increase

40

Crude
death rate

20

Year
190
0

195
0

Crude
birth rate

30

10

10
775 1800 1850

Developed Countries

Rate per 1,000 people

Rate per 1,000 people

50

200
0

205
0

Year

10
775 1800 1850

Crude
death rate
190
0

195
0

200
0

205
0

Fig. 11.13, p. 245

Infant mortality is the death before the

1st birthday
High infant mortality rate usually results
from
Insufficient food (undernutrition)
Poor nutrition (malnutrition)
High incidence of infectious diseases
due to contaminated drinking water or
poor sanitation

Population Age Structure

Male

Female

Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Ages 0-14

Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 15-44

Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece

Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden

Ages 45-85+

Fig. 11.16a, p. 247

Solutions: Influencing
Population Size
Migration
Environmental refugees
Reducing births
Family planning
Empowerment of women
Economic rewards and penalties

The Demographic Transition

Stage 2
Transindustrial

Stage 3
Industrial

Stage 4
Postindustrial
High

80
70

Relative population size

Birth rate and death rate

(number per 1,000 per year)

Stage 1
Preindustrial

60
50

Birth rate

40
30

Death rate

20
10
0

Total population
Low
Increasing Growth Very high Decreasing
Low
Zero
growth rate
growth rate
growth rate growth rate growth rate growth rate

Low
Negative
growth rate
Fig. 11.26, p. 255

Time

The Demographic Transition

Stage 2
Transindustrial

Stage 3
Industrial

Stage 4
Postindustrial
High

80
70
60
50

Birth rate

40
30

Death rate

20
10
0

Total population
Low Increasing GrowthVery high Decreasing
Low
Zero
Negative
growth rate growth rate growth rategrowth rategrowth rategrowth rate growth rate

Relative population size

Birth rate and death rate

(number per 1,000 per year)

Stage 1
Preindustrial

Low

Time

Pre-industrial -- high birth rate and

high death rate (including high infant
mortality rate), harsh living

Fig. 11.26, p. 255

Stage 1
Preindustrial
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Stage 2
Transitional

Stage 3
Industrial

Stage 4
Postindustrial
Relative population size

Birth rate and death rate

(number per 1,000 per year)

The Demographic Transition

High

Birth rate
Death rate
Total population
Low Increasing GrowthVery high Decreasing
Low
Zero
Negative
growth rate growth rate growth rategrowth rategrowth rategrowth rate growth rate

Low

Time

Transitional - industrialization begins, trend

to urbanization, food supply increases and
health care is better, death rates drop BUT
birth rates remain high

Fig. 11.26, p. 255

Stage 1
Preindustrial
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Stage 2
Transitional

Stage 3
Industrial

Stage 4
Postindustrial
Relative population size

Birth rate and death rate

(number per 1,000 per year)

The Demographic Transition

High

Birth rate
Death rate
Total population
Low Increasing GrowthVery high Decreasing
Low
Zero
Negative
growth rate growth rate growth rategrowth rategrowth rategrowth rate growth rate

Low

Time

Industrial - modernization becomes

widespread, birth rates now drop to nearly
equal death rate, pop growth is slow
Fig. 11.26, p. 255

Stage 1
Preindustrial
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Stage 2
Transitional

Stage 3
Industrial

Stage 4
Postindustrial
Relative population size

Birth rate and death rate

(number per 1,000 per year)

The Demographic Transition

High

LDC
Birth rate
Death rate

MDC

Total population
Low Increasing GrowthVery high Decreasing
Low
Zero
Negative
growth rate growth rate growth rategrowth rategrowth rategrowth rate growth rate

Low

Time

Post-Industrial - birth rates are now well

below death rates
Most European countries have entered this
stage

Fig. 11.26, p. 255

Case Study: Slowing Population

Growth in India
Generally disappointing results:
Poor planning
Bureaucratic inefficiency
Low status of women
Extreme poverty
Lack of support

Case Study: Slowing Population

Growth in China
Generally positive results:
Economic incentives
Free medical care
Preferential treatment
Intrusive and coercive
Locally administered

Cutting Global Population Growth

Family planning
Reduce poverty
Elevate the status of women