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CHAPTER15
Financial Markets
and Expectations
Prepared by:
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier
15-1
Bond Prices
and Bond Yields
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Bond Prices
and Bond Yields
Figure 15 - 1
U.S. Yield Curves:
November 1, 2000
and June 1, 2001
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The Vocabulary of
Bond Markets
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The Vocabulary of
Bond Markets
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The Vocabulary of
Bond Markets
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The Vocabulary of
Bond Markets
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$ P1t
$100
1 i1t
$ P2t
$100
(1 i1t ) (1 i e 1t1 )
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Figure 15 - 1
Returns from Holding
1-Year and 2-Year
Bonds for 1 Year
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1 i1t
$ P e 1t1
$ P2t
Expected return
per dollar from
holding a two-year
bond for one year.
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$ P2t
$ P e 1t1
1 i1t
$ P
1t1
$100
(1 i e 1t1 )
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Given $ P 2 t
$ P e 1t1
and $ P
1 i1t
$ P2t
1t1
$100
, then:
e
(1 i 1t1 )
$100
(1 i1t ) (1 i e 1t1 )
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$ P2t
$100
$100
$100
, then:
2
2
(1 i2 t )
(1 i2 t )
(1 i1t ) (1 i e 1t1 )
e
(
1
i
)
(
1
i
)
(
1
i
therefore:
1t1 )
2t
1t
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i2 t
1
e
( i1 t i 1 t 1 )
2
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An upward sloping yield curve means that longterm interest rates are higher than short-term
interest rates. Financial markets expect shortterm rates to be higher in the future.
A downward sloping yield curve means that longterm interest rates are lower than short-term
interest rates. Financial markets expect shortterm rates to be lower in the future.
Using the following equation, you can fine out
what financial markets expect the 1-year interest
rate to be 1 year from now: e
1t1
2t
1t
2i
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$Q
$ D e t1
$ D e t2
e
(1 i1t ) (1 i1t ) (1 i 1t1 )
In real terms,
D e t1
D e t2
(1 r1t ) (1 r1t ) (1 r
1t1
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D e t1
D e t2
(1 r1t ) (1 r1t ) (1 r
1t1
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A Monetary Expansion
and the Stock Market
Figure 15 - 7
An Expansionary
Monetary Policy and the
Stock Market
A monetary expansion
decreases the interest
rate and increases
output. What it does to
the stock market
depends on whether
financial markets
anticipated the monetary
expansion.
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An Increase in Consumer
Spending and the Stock Market
Figure 15 8 (a)
An Increase in
Consumption
Spending and the
Stock Market
The increase in
consumption spending
leads to a higher
interest rate and a
higher level of output.
What happens to the
stock market depends
on the slope of the LM
curve and on the Feds
behavior.
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An Increase in Consumer
Spending and the Stock Market
Figure 15 8(b)
An Increase in
Consumption
Spending and the
Stock Market
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An Increase in Consumer
Spending and the Stock Market
Figure 15 8(c)
An Increase in
Consumption
Spending and the
Stock Market
If the Fed
accommodates, the
interest rate does not
increase, but output
does. Stock prices go
up. If the Fed decides
instead to keep output
constant, the interest
rate increases, but
output does not. Stock
prices go down.
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An Increase in Consumer
Spending and the Stock Market
There are several things the Fed may do after
receiving news of strong economic activity:
They may accommodate, or increase the
money supply in line with money demand so as
to avoid an increase in the interest rate.
They may keep the same monetary policy,
leaving the LM curve unchanged causing the
economy to move along the LM curve
Or the Fed may worry that an increase in output
above YA may lead to an increase in inflation.
Making (Some) Sense of (Apparent) Nonsense: Why
the Stock Market Moved Yesterday, and Other
Stories
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15-3
Bubbles, Fads,
and Stock Prices
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Key Terms
default risk
maturity
yield curve
term structure of interest rates
government bonds
corporate bonds
bond ratings
risk premium
junk bonds
discount bonds
face value
coupon bonds
coupon payments
coupon rate
current yield
life (of a bond)
Treasury bills, or T-bills
Treasury notes
Treasury bonds
indexed bonds
expectations hypothesis
arbitrage
yield to maturity, or n-year interest rate
soft landing
debt finance
equity finance
shares, or stocks
dividends
random walk
Fed accommodation
fundamental value
rational speculative bubbles
fads
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