Brian Wernham

Chaos: a new perspective on Agile

governance

Delegates 50% discount

brian.wernham@gmail.com
@BrianUkulele

http://bit.ly/special-offer-CWBW50

Why are YOU here today?

What is
Agile?

Agile only for

web
development?
Agile only for
tiny stuff?
Agile = loss of
Agile in
control?
mission critical
projects?
What is
DSDM?

What is
Scrum?

Are we talking
Governance of a project
of Governance of
portfolios of change?

http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele

This talk:
1. What is Agile?
2. What is Agile Governance?
3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of
the unexpected?
- Chaos Theory & Emergent Complexity
4. Kick-off the development of a guide for
Agile Governance
http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele

1. What is Agile?

The Big Design Up Front

mind-set
I had
better ask
for all
possible
features

At last a
chance to
get what I
want!

http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele

The Big Design Up Front is born

http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele

The result of Big Design Up Front

Doh!
http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele

http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele

As difficult as trying to swim up a

waterfall

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@BrianUkulele

10

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Scrum at the team level two

popular methods
Scrum
DSDM

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1. Scrum a team level approach

Source: Mike Cohn www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum

http://bit.ly/About-Brian

An overview of two agile methods

2. DSDM a hybrid team/project level approach

Source: DSDM Consortium (DSDM = Driving Strategy, Delivering

More)
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2. What is Agile Governance?

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Agile inverts the normal project

management paradigm
a) Time Driven
I dont want it perfect I want it Thursday

Traditional

Agile
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Agile focuses on flow

b) and minimises Work in Progress
There is no value in holding stock in a warehouse

Agile

Traditional

Design
Design

P/type
Build
Build

P/type
Test
Test
Deploy
Deploy

P/type

P/type

Can we define Agile Governance

principles at several levels:
Project Level?
Governance of one specific project?
Scrum? DSDM?

Programme Level?
Governance of hybrid programmes that comprises both:
Waterfall projects
& Agile projects?

Portfolio Level?
Governance across many projects?

19

Is Agile Governance really about

being adaptable?
Traditional
Project

Innovation
project

Hybrid
Programme
Traditional
Project

Design
Design
Build
Build

P/type
Innovation
Project

P/type

Test
Test
Deploy
Deploy

Traditional
Project

P/type

Innovation
Project

Control-freak
Governance

Agile
Governance

P/type

Arms-length
Governance
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3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of the

unexpected?

A brief overview of the practical impact of Chaos Theory

Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)
How long is a piece of string? (Fractals)
Satisficing a business case (Alternative stable states)

Complex outcomes from simple systems

Self-organisation
Ants
People (so very different?)

21

Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial

conditions)
For want of a nail the shoe was lost
For want of a shoe the horse was lost
For want of a horse the battle was lost

22

Heat convection any difference in initial conditions

produces an unpredicatble outcome after a while:

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Increase the feedback and the Lorenz

equation becomes unstable and chaotic:

24

Complexity out of simplicity

e.g. the Lorenz Equation

25

Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial

conditions)
For want of a nail the shoe was lost
For want of a shoe the horse was lost
For want of a horse the battle was lost

26

No two snowflakes are the same

A simple fractal - The Koch Curve

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No two snowflakes are the same

A simple fractal - The Koch Curve

28

How long is a piece of string? (Fractals)

Ruler length = x
Answer = y

Ruler length x/2

Answer = y*2.5

29

The result runs away from you the

closer you try to measure it

30

The fractal dimension measures

this disappearing event horizon

31

How long will it take to add just a bit

more detail to a business case or spec?

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Alternative stable states

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems

Marten Scheffer, Nature, 2001

33

Self-organisation - Ants

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Self-organisation - Ants

35

Self-organisation - People

36

References
Daa, Josef
Chaos Theory in Project Management, Masaryk University, Brno
2014

Christopher, Martin
The Agile Supply Chain : Competing in Volatile Markets, Industrial
Marketing Management, Vol 29., No. 1., 2000, pp. 37-44

Yang, C
Hierarchical Summarization of Large Documents, Drexel University

Scheffer, Marten
Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature, 2001

37

4. Kick-off the development of a guide for Agile

Governance

38

Thanks for listening!

Delegates 50% discount`

brian.wernham@gmail.com
Blog: brianwernham.wordpress.com
@BrianUkulele
http://bit.ly/About-Brian

http://bit.ly/special-offer-CWBW50
39