The Role Crop Modeling and Remote

Sensing in Rice Productivity Improvement

Images Source: Setiyono 2015, Soc Trang DARD Seed Center, Vietnam

Tri Setiyono
International Rice Research Institute

Outline
Background
Climate information, crop modeling, and remote sensing
applications
Remote sensing role drought detection
Crop modeling Role
Remote sensing role linked to crop modeling
Outputs from the RIICE project (Remote Sensing-based
Information and Insurance for Crops in Emerging
Economies)
Implementation potentials

Background
Rice the staple food of most of the world's poor are
vulnerable to climate shock events such as drought and
flood
Timely and accurate information on rice productivity
On demand to support decision making for food
security and economic development
Can facilitate development of a cost-effective crop
insurance system and effective linkage to social safety
net and other risk transfer measure
Putting farmers in a better position to adopt new
technologies
We can make use of current advances in climate
information, crop simulation modeling, and remote sensing
applications for developing crop monitoring system with
the above interests

Outline
Background
Chronology of climate information, crop modeling,
and remote sensing applications
Remote sensing role drought detection
Crop modeling role
Remote sensing role linked to crop modeling
Outputs from the RIICE project (Remote Sensing-based
Information and Insurance for Crops in Emerging
Economies)
Implementation potentials

Chronology of climate information, crop simulation &

remote sensing applications
Aspect

Pre-Season

In-Season

Post-Season

Climate
Informati
on (CI)

Long-term
forecast
Seasonal
Weather
Forecast

Short-term forecast
Real-time weather
monitoring

Weather monitoring
and evaluation

Remote
Sensing
(RS)

Historical
(baseline)

Real-time crop
monitoring

Real-time crop
monitoring

Crop
Simulatio
n Model
(CSM)

Seasonal
yield forecast

In-season yield
forecast

Post-season yield
estimates

Example
Applicatio
ns

Climate
early warning
(CI)
Impact
outlook
(CI,CSM)

Production
monitoring (CI,
CSM , RS)
Impact confirmation
(CI, CSM, RS)
Pest and Disease
Early Warning

Reducing yield
gaps (CI, CSM, RS),
Disaster impact
assessment &
intervention (CI,
CSM, RS)

Outline
Background
Chronology of climate information, crop modeling, and
remote sensing applications
Remote sensing role drought detection
Crop modeling role
Remote sensing role linked to crop modeling
Outputs from the RIICE project (Remote Sensing-based
Information and Insurance for Crops in Emerging
Economies)
Implementation potentials

2003
2004

Myanmar (2003, 2004*)

Map: MODIS LAI (USGS); Time series data: MODIS NDVI (USG

Cambodia

2013 SEPLandsatLook
06
"Natural Color" Image (USGS)

Cambodia*

2014 SEPLandsatLook
18
"Natural Color" Image (USGS)

Outline
Background
Chronology of climate information, crop modeling, and
remote sensing applications
Remote sensing role drought detection
Crop modeling role
Remote sensing role linked to crop modeling
Outputs from the RIICE project (Remote Sensing-based
Information and Insurance for Crops in Emerging
Economies)
Implementation potentials

Crop Modeling Role

Weather

Management
Fertilizer N
Water

Genotype
Maturity Duration

Crop
Yield

Solar, Temperature
Rainfall, Wind Speed

Soil
Hydraulic properties
Texture, Soil N

Pest & Disease

Crop Simulation Model (CSM). e.g. ORYZA2000
more variables to consider than the human mind can reasonably organized
(Whisler et al 1999)

Crop Modeling Role

Explanatory

500

400

Count

300

200

FN
R
TPD

100

0
1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

-1

Oryza200
0

EXP

TPD
1
TPD
2
TPD
3

Yield (kg ha )

PPD
1
PPD
2
PPD
3

FNR
1
FNR

IRA1
IRA2

IRA3
2
FNR Transplanting
TPD
3
date
PPD Population
density
FNR Fertilizer N rate
IRA Irrigation amount

Outline
Background
Chronology of climate information, crop modeling, and
remote sensing applications
Remote sensing role drought detection
Crop modeling role
Remote sensing role linked to crop modeling
Outputs from the RIICE project (Remote Sensing-based
Information and Insurance for Crops in Emerging
Economies)
Implementation potentials

Remote Sensing (RS) Role

Days after establishment
-20

-10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90
8

LAI: CSM
LAI :CSM + RS
LAI ; RS
Yield :CSM
Yield: CSM + RS
Yield :Obs.

6
5

4
3

Yield (Mg ha-1)

LAI (m2 m-2)

2
1

180

200

220

240

260

280

Day of Year

CSM Crop Sim. Model; RS Remote Sensing; Obs. - Observed

Rice Yield Estimation

Scale:
Field
R
S
Scale:
Spatial

Days after transplanting

-30

-10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-6

6
LAI
Backscatter

-8

-10
4

-12
3

-14

LAI (m2 m-2)

Backscatter (dB)

-20

-16
1

-18
-20

Jun-25

Jul-09

Jul-23

Aug-06 Aug-20 Sep-03 Sep-17 Oct-01

Date

15

ORYZA2000

ORYZA2000
+ RS

Clay Content

>56%

20-56%

<20%

ORYZA2000
+ RS

Integrating GIS, RS, & CSM for Yield Monitoring System

ORYZA2000
Agronomic
management
Gridded weather data
(NASA power, TRMM)

Station weather data

Soil : WISE database, HWSD,

local soil database
World Inventory of Soil Emission Potentials
(WISE)
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)
HWSD (Harmonized World Soil Database)

Remote sensingbased
Information and
Insurance for
Crops in

Outline
Background
Chronology of climate information, crop modeling, and
remote sensing applications
Remote sensing role drought detection
Crop modeling role
Remote sensing role linked to crop modeling
Outputs from the RIICE project (Remote Sensingbased Information and Insurance for Crops in
Emerging Economies)
Implementation potentials

The RIICE project demonstrates that

remote
sensing
and
other
technologies can provide accurate
and
timely
information
rice.
Remote
Sensing based
Information andon
Insurance
for
Crops in Emerging Economies

Data
Remote sensing

Technolo
gy

Informati
on

Users

Remote Sensing

Rice area

Ministry of agriculture

Crop modeling

Planting dates

Statistical bureaus

Weather, soil, etc. WebGIS

Databases

Yield & productionPolicy makers

Yield forecasts

Researchers

Expert knowledge Flood & drought Disaster response

Field measurements
Training

Yield gaps

Finance/insurance

RIICE demonstration sites in Asia

Remote Sensing based Information and Insurance for
Crops in Emerging Economies

Subang, Indonesia 2013/14 WS

Nov-Apr (Wet
rice area

Season)
Transplanting
Irrigated
Ciherang , Inpari,
Mekonga, Sintanur
(115)
Ketan, IR42 (135)
RIICE
rice
area
(ha)

Rice
area
accuracy

64533

97%

Site

Period

Cambodia,
Oct to Apr
Takeo
Philippines, May to
Leyte East
Sep
Philippines, May to
Leyte West
Sep
Philippines, May to
A. del Norte
Oct
Vietnam, Soc
Jun to Sep
Trang
Vietnam,
Jul to Nov
Nam Dinh
Indonesia,
Nov to
Subang
Apr
India,
Jul to Jan
Cuddalore
India,
Aug to
Thanjavur
Dec
India,
Sep to Jan
Sivaganga
Thailand,
May to
Muang Yang
Nov
Thailand,
Jun to Oct
Suphan Buri
Philippines,
Jul to Nov
Nueva Ecija

Season

Establishment

Maturity
(days)

Water
source
Irrigated
(IR)

Rice area
(ha)

Accuracy

Dry

Direct seeding
(DS)

95

150,026

85%

Dry

Transplanting (TP)

114

IR

17,817

87%

Dry

TP

110-112

IR

15,229

89%

Dry

TP & DS

107-123

IR & some
rainfed (RF)

13,163

89%

Summerautumn

TP & DS

95-120

IR

55,216

87%

Summer

TP

125-134

IR

108,733

89%

Wet

TP

115-135

IR

64,533

97%

Samba

TP

130-160

IR

26,015

92%

Samba

TP & DS

135-160

IR

83,871

91%

Samba

TP & DS

100-110

Semi-dry
rice

41,825

87%

Wet

DS

150-178

RF

91,908

86%

Wet

DS

92-120

IR

555,317

87%

Wet

TP

114

IR

424,801

86%

DS 2
WS - 11

DS 7
TP - 10

92-178

IR 12
RF 3

1.65M ha

In 2013 all sites reached our 85% accuracy threshold, suggesting

that we can map and monitor rice across different

Monitoring System
for Rice Yield
ORYZA2000 + RS

www.riice.
org

Cloud* based semi-empirical model for converting radar backscatter into rice LAI
8

LAI (m2 m-2)

10 0.1 cos

B A ln
cos

BG

LAI
100.1 cos
ln
cos C

BG

0
-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

LAI (output) is Leaf area index (m2 m-2)

Radar backscattering (dB)
(input) is radar backscattering (dB), C-band or X-band
(parameter) is backscattering coefficient at full canopy closure (m2 m-2)
(parameter) is coefficient of attenuation per unit canopy water (m 2 kg-1)
BG (parameter) is backscattering from canopy background (m2 m-2)
(parameter) is incident angle of radar beam ()
A, B, and C (parameters) are non-linear reg. coefficients for LAI vs W.h#, where W
is amount of canopy water (kg m-3) and h is canopy height (m) and A = 10.22468,
B=0.3379559, and C=1.7230986
*Attema & Ulaby (1978); #Shen et al., 2009

Cloud* based semi-empirical model for LAI as a function of

radar backscattering from lowland rice : Sensitivity analysis

LAI (difference from baseline, %)

40

BG

20

10 0.1 cos

B A ln
cos 2

BG

LAI
0.1
10
cos
ln
cos C

BG

-20

-40
-40

-20

20

Parameters (difference from baseline, %)

Baseline Values:
LAI = 1.73; = 0.34; = 0.20; BG = 0.045; = 22

40

is backscattering
coefficient at full
canopy
closure, m2 m-2
is coefficient of
attenuation per unit
canopy water, m2
kg-1
BG is
backscattering from
canopy
background,m2 m-2
A, B, and C are

is incident
angle
non-linear
reg.
of
radar beam,
#
coefficients
for LAI vs W.h,
where W is amount
of canopy water (kg
m-3) and h is
canopy height (m)
A = 10.22468
B=0.3379559
C=1.7230986

*Attema & Ulaby (1978); #Shen et al., 2009

Cloud* based semi-empirical model for LAI as a function of

radar backscattering from lowland rice : Sensitivity analysis
8

(backscattering coefficient at full canopy

closure,m2 m-2)
-30% (0.24, dark red)
-20% (0.27, red)
-10% (0.31, orange)
0% (0.34, black)
10% (0.38, dark green)
20% (0.41, blue)
30% (0.44, violet)

LAI (m2 m-2)

10 0.1 cos

B A ln
cos 2

BG

LAI
0.1
10
cos
ln
cos C

BG

A, B, and C are non-linear reg. coefficients

for LAI vs W.h,# where W is amount of
canopy water (kg m-3) and h is canopy
height (m)
A = 10.22468
B=0.3379559
C=1.7230986

0
-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

Radar backscattering (dB)

Symbols are observed data from Chen & Lin (1994) and Inoue et al. (1995)
*Attema & Ulaby (1978); #Shen et al., 2009

Cloud* based semi-empirical model for LAI as a function of

radar backscattering from lowland rice : Sensitivity analysis
8
(coefficient of attenuation per unit canopy
water, m2 kg-1)
-30% (0.14, dark red)
-20% (0.16, red)
-10% (0.18, orange)
0% (0.20, black)
10% (0.24, dark green)
20% (0.26, blue)
30% (0.32, violet)

LAI (m2 m-2)

10 0.1 cos

B A ln
cos

BG

LAI
0.1
10
cos
ln
cos C

BG

A, B, and C are non-linear reg. coefficients

for LAI vs W.h,#where W is amount of
canopy water (kg m-3) and h is canopy
height (m)
A = 10.22468
B=0.3379559
C=1.7230986

0
-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

Radar backscattering (dB)

Symbols are observed data from Chen & Lin (1994) and Inoue et al. (1995)
*Attema & Ulaby (1978); #Shen et al., 2009

Cloud* based semi-empirical model for LAI as a function of

radar backscattering from lowland rice : Sensitivity analysis
8

LAI (m2 m-2)

BG (backscattering from canopy background,m2 m-2)

-30% (0.032, dark red)
-20% (0.036, red)
-10% (0.041, orange)
0% (0.045, black)
10% (0.050, dark green)
20% (0.055, blue)
30% (0.059, violet)
10 0.1 cos

B A ln
cos 2

BG

LAI
0.1
10
cos
ln
cos C

BG

A, B, and C are non-linear reg. coefficients

for LAI vs W.h,#where W is amount of
canopy water (kg m-3) and h is canopy
height (m)
A = 10.22468
B=0.3379559
C=1.7230986

0
-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

Radar backscattering (dB)

Symbols are observed data from Chen & Lin (1994) and Inoue et al. (1995)
*Attema & Ulaby (1978); #Shen et al., 2009

Vietnam
Mekong River
Delta
2013
Summer
Autumn
Jun-Sep
End of Season
Sim.

<

ORYZA2000+SAR Yield Estimates Validation

Country, Site

Season

Period covered

SAR Scene Center Spatial Rice area* Estimated

units
(ha)
Yield
evaluated
(kg/ha)

Yield
Stats
(kg/ha)

Yield
Estimate
Agreement
(%)

PHL Leyte East

Dry

2013 05 to 09

11.11N-124.89E

19

17,817

3829

3645

90

PHL Leyte West

Dry

2013 05 to 09

11.18N-124.56E

15

15,229

3390

3483

91

VNM Soc Trang

Summer2013 06 to 09
Autumn

9.60N-106.09E

55,216

5900

5539

90

VNM Nam Dinh

Summer 2013 07 to 11

20.47N-106.05E

108,733

4818

4376

84

IND Cuddalore

Samba

2013 07 to 2014 01

11.74N-79.56E

26,015

3748

4276

83

IND Thanjavur

Samba

2013 08 to 12

10.87N-79.25E

83,871

4896

4523

85

IND Sivaganga

Samba

2013 09 to 2014 01

9.86N-78.50E

41,825

1827

1753

88

THA N. Ratchasima

Wet

2013 05 to 11

15.44N-102.95E

91,908

2283

2823

81

THA Suphan Buri

Wet

2013 05 to 09

14.53N-100.44E

555,317

5270

4941

94

* SAR-based estimates

Municipalities in Nueva
Ecija Province

Yield,
Forecasted
September

Yield,
Forecasted
October

Yield, Estimated
November

Aliaga
Bongabon
Cabanatuan City
Cabiao
Carranglan
Cuyapo
Gabaldon
Gapan City
General Mamerto Natividad
General Tinio
Guimba
Jaen
Laur
Licab
Llanera
Lupao
Muoz City
Nampicuan
Palayan City
Pantabangan
Pearanda
Quezon
Rizal
San Antonio
San Isidro
San Jose City
San Leonardo
Santa Rosa
Santo Domingo
Talavera
Talugtug
Zaragoza

(kg/ha)
6032
5788
5789
5965
5661
5626
5247
5778
5641
4994
5667
6196
5776
5931
5551
5074
5882
5678
5213
4258
5222
5520
5791
5814
6019
5564
4775
5941
5490
5649
5553
6056

(kg/ha)
5662
5635
5524
5864
5072
5424
5250
5495
5287
4822
5436
5613
5549
5696
5290
4921
5507
5423
4852
3923
5148
5592
5516
5535
5676
5302
6000
5679
5418
5424
5198
5745

RIICE
5451
5259
5211
5477
5400
4854
5352
5104
5067
4694
4927
5280
5459
5259
5554
4357
5199
5046
4433
3878
4754
5978
5353
5187
5145
4470
5500
5353
5650
5596
4242
5450

2014 Rice yield

forecasts and end
of season
estimates for
Nueva Ecija
First forecast in
September
5600kg/ha
Second forecast in
October 5400 kg/ha
DA-BAS forecast as
of October
5480kg/ha
End of season
estimate in
November
5300 kg/ha
Official Yield Stats.
5313 kg/ha

Philippines
Central Luzon
2014
Wet Season
Jul-Nov
Forecast #1

<

Philippines
Central Luzon
2014
Wet Season
Jul-Nov
Forecast #2

<

Outline
Background
Chronology of climate information, crop modeling, and
remote sensing applications
Remote sensing role drought detection
Crop modeling role
Remote sensing role linked to crop modeling
Outputs from the RIICE project (Remote Sensing-based
Information and Insurance for Crops in Emerging
Economies)
Implementation potentials

Potential Implementations
Typhoon damage assessment (Philippines) on
going
Inorganic fertilizer distribution and timing
(Indonesia)
Pest and disease warning system (Vietnam)
To support investment in irrigation infrastructure
(Indonesia)
Development of crop insurance system (Vietnam,
Cambodia, Thailand, India)

Integrated food security modeling

Climate
forecast

Household
food status

Risk &
vulnerabilit
y baseline

Food
security
forecasting

CS
MR
S

Food
production

Food prices

Food
security
monitoring

Emergency
needs
assessmen
t

Acknowledgements
Andy Nelson, Arnel Rala, Emma Quicho, Leo Palao, Prosperidad
Abonete, Alexis Dagmil, Cornelia Garcia, Aileen Maunahan,
Jenny Ravis, Jorrel Aunario, Hannah Bhatti, Lorena Villano, Gene
Romuga (IRRI Philippines)
Francesco Holecz, Massimo Barbieri, Francesco Collivignarelli
(Sarmap SA Switzerland)
Eduardo Jimmy Quilang, Mary Rose Mabalay (PhilRice
Philippines)
Pongmanee Tongbai (IRRI Thailand)
Sellaperumal Pazhanivelan (TNAU India)
Quyen Nguyen Huu (IMHEN Vietnam)
Vo Quang Minh (CanTho Univ. Vietnam)
Seng Vang, Touch Veasna (CARDI Cambodia)
Amornrat Intrman (Rice Dept. Thailand)
Wahyunto (ICALRD, IAARD Indonesia)
Aniruddha Shanbhag , Manoj Yadav(GIZ India)
Mirco Boschetti (CNR-IREA Italy)
Preesan Rakwatin (GISTDA Thailand)

THANK YOU!