Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Systems,
Modeling, and Support
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
DSS
Decision
Support
Systems
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
2.3 Systems
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
The Structure of a
System
Three Distinct Parts of Systems
Inputs
Processes
Outputs
Systems
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
System
Environment
Output(s)
Input(s)
Processes
Feedback
Boundary
Social
Political
Legal
Physical
Economical
Often Other Systems
Factors
Management
Science, EOQ
(Closed System)
Demand
Constant
Unit cost
Constant
May changedaily
Lead time
Constant
Excluded from
analysis
Ignored
Inventory DSS
(Open System)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
An Information System
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
10
Performance
Measurement
Effectiveness and
EffectivenessEfficiency
is the degree to which goals are
achieved
Doing the right thing!
Productivity (efficiency/effectiveness)
Measurable?
several non-quantifiable, conflicting goals
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
11
2.4 Models
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
12
Degrees of Model
Abstraction
(Least to Most)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
13
Benefits of Models
An MSS employs models because
1. Time compression
2. Easy model manipulation
3. Low cost of construction
4. Low cost of execution (especially that of errors)
5. Can model risk and uncertainty
6. Can model large and extremely complex systems
with possibly infinite solutions
7. Enhance and reinforce learning, and enhance
training.
Computer graphics advances: complement math
models using more iconic and analog models (visual
simulation)
14
Modeling--Preview
Example: How Much to Order for the Ma-Pa
Grocery?
Trial-and-Error
Simulation
Optimization
Heuristics
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
15
Decision Making
ART or SCIENCE?
16
The Decision-Making
Process
Systematic Decision-Making Process (Simons
Model)
Intelligence
Design
Choice
Implementation
Modeling is Essential to the Process
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
17
Intelligence phase
Reality is examined
The problem is identified and defined
Design phase
Representative model is constructed
The model is validated and evaluation criteria are set
Choice phase
Includes a proposed solution to the model
If reasonable, move on to the
Implementation phase
Solution to the original problem
Failure: Return to the modeling process
Often Backtrack / Cycle Throughout the Process
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
18
Problem or Symptom
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
19
Includes
Modeling
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
20
Types of Decisions
Structured
Unstructured
Nature of Decision
Structured Problems
Semi-structured Problems
Has some structured aspect
Some of the inputs or outputs or procedures are not well
defined
Unstructured Problems
All phases of decision making process are unstructured
Not well defined input, output set and procedures
22
Scope of Decision
Strategic Planning
Long-range goals and policies for resource allocation
E.g... What new products should be offered
23
Information Characteristics
Characteristics
Accuracy
Level of detail
Time horizon
Use
Source
Scope
Nature
Age
Operational Managerial
High
Detailed
Present
Frequent
Internal
Narrow
Quantitative
Current
Strategic
Low
Aggregate
Future
Infrequent
External
Wide
Qualitative
Current/old
24
25
26
Mathematical Model
Identify Variables
Establish Equations describing their
Relationships
Simplifications through Assumptions
Balance Model Simplification and the
Accurate Representation of Reality
Modeling: An Art and Science
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
27
Quantitative Models
Uncontrollable
variables
Decision
Variables
Mathematical
Relationships
Result
Variables
Decision Variables
Result Variables
Decision
Uncontrollable Factors
Relationships among Variables
28
Decision
Variables
Investment
alternatives and
amounts
How long to invest
When to invest
Result
Variables
Total profit
Rate of return (ROI)
Earnings per share
Liquidity level
Marketing
A dvertising budget
Where to advertise
Market share
Customers' income
Customer satisfaction Competitors' actions
Manufacturing
Total cost
Quality level
Employee
satisfaction
Machine capacity
Technology
Materials prices
A ccounting
Use of computers
A udit schedule
Computer
technology
Tax rates
Legal requirements
Transportation
Shipments schedule
Delivery distance
Regulations
Services
Staffing levels
Customer satisfaction
Area
Financial investment
29
Uncontrollable Variables or
Parameters
30
The Structure of
Quantitative Models
Present-value model
P = F / (1+i)n
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
31
Example
CC8
300
15,000
>=
>=
12,000
Rel
500
<=
100
200
Max
Limit
<=
200,000 / mo
8,000,000/mo
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
32
Example: Linear
Programming Model
Components
Decision variables
Result variable
Uncontrollable variables
(constraints)
Solution
X1 = 333.33
X2 = 200
Profit = $5,066,667
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
33
Normative
Descriptive
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
34
Normative Models
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
35
Suboptimization
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
36
Descriptive Models
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
37
Satisficing (Good
Enough)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
38
Why Satisfice?
Bounded Rationality
(Simon)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
39
Developing (Generating)
Alternatives
In Optimization Models:
Automatically by the Model!
Not Always So!
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
40
Certainty
Risk
Uncertainty
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
41
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
42
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
43
Risk Analysis
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
44
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
45
Measuring Outcomes
Goal attainment
Maximize profit
Minimize cost
Customer satisfaction level (Minimize
number of complaints)
Maximize quality or satisfaction
ratings (found by surveys)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
46
Scenarios
Useful in
Simulation
What-if analysis
47
Search Approaches
Analytical Techniques
Algorithms (Optimization)
Blind and Heuristic Search Techniques
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
48
Purchasestocks
If a price-to-earnings ratio
exceeds 10, then do not buy
thestocks.
Travel
Do not usethefreeway
between 8 and 9 a.m.
Purchaseof a house
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
49
Evaluation of Alternatives
Sensitivity Analysis
Change inputs or parameters, look at model
results
50
What-If Analysis
Goal Seeking
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
51
Important Issues
Resistance to change
Degree of top management support
Users roles and involvement in system development
Users training
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
52
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
53
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
54
Cognitive Style
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
55
Heuristic
Analytic
feedback.
Search
spontaneous action.
A pproach to analysis
and feelings.
Scope of analysis
functions.
Locates similarities or
commonalities by comparing
with time.
objects.
(Source: G. B. Davis. Management Information Systems: Conceptual Foundations, Structure, and Development.
New York: McGraw-Hill, 1974, p. 150. Reproduced with permission of McGraw-Hill, Inc.)
56
Decision Styles
The manner in which decision makers
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
57
Heuristic
Analytic
Autocratic
Democratic
Consultative (with individuals or groups)
Combinations and variations
For successful decision making support,
an MSS must fit the
Decision situation
Decision style
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
58
The system
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
59
Groups
60
Summary
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
61
Summary (cont.)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
62