GLOBAL TRADES AND MARKET

GROUP No. 45
VIRGINIA NDUNGU
RAHUL KWATRA
JAIDEEP K THAKUR

213311495
213374599

KRISHNAN BHATTACHARJEE

211072865

HYPOTHESIS:YOUTH POPULATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE HIGHER

GROWTH RATE IN AN ECONOMY

ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS:YOUTH POPULATION DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO

HIGHER GROWTH RATE IN AN ECONOMY

 G20 Countries considered for

analysis
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
in US $
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Growth Rate (%)
Labor Participation (20112013)
Migration Factor (2011-2012)
Median Age by Country
Labor Force Participation Rate
(LFP)

Data Consideration

GDP(Total) GDP Growth

GDP

GDP Growth(3Yrs Avg)

$18,000,000,000,000

In the chart we are comparing the

various economic factors i.e.
Total GDP Value (US $)
Total GDP Growth Rate

The graph helps us understand

the stand points of the countries
considered for further analysis.

From GDP stand point

United Stated of America,
China and Japan are the
leader in the sampled
country.
China followed by
Indonesia, Saudi Arabia,
India are the fastest
growing nation.

10.0

$16,000,000,000,000

8.2

8.0

$14,000,000,000,000
6.2

$12,000,000,000,000

6.16.0
5.4

5.0

$10,000,000,000,000

4.1

4.0

$8,000,000,000,000
2.8
2.1

2.0

$6,000,000,000,000
1.0

$4,000,000,000,000

1.3

2.0

1.4
0.9
0.0

$2,000,000,000,000
-1.2
$0

-2.0

Average GDP Growth and Median Age

10.0

50
44.6

44.3

43.7
8.0

40.7

40.5

8.2

36.9
6.1

6.0
30.7
30.3 5.0
4.1
4.0

2.1
1.4

6.2

0.9

Here we can see that as the

Median Age decreases, the
GDP increases

For example: Countries like Italy

Japan and UK has
lower growth rate
with High Median
Age.
Countries like China
India and Saudi
Arabia has a higher
Growth Rate with a
lower Median Age.

27.9
25.9

25

1.0

20
15
10

0.0

5
-1.2
-2.0

0
GDP Growth(3Yrs Avg)
Median Age

There exists a direct

relationship between the
Median Age and the
Average GDP Growth Rate.

30

2.0
1.3

35.235

5.4

21.6

2.8
2.0

In the above chart we have

considered the Average GDP
Growth and the Median Age.

40

39.7

37.5

45

Linear (GDP Growth(3Yrs Avg))

Linear (Median Age)

GDP Growth, Median Age and Immigration

50.0

1.2
Germany; 1.12
Germany; 43.7

Here we consider the

GDP Growth, Median
Age and Immigration.

Countries are
considered and
sampled based on the
Low Growth Rate and
High Median Aged
Population.

Previously we have
established that Median
Age has positive impact
on GDP Growth.

Supported by friendly
immigration policies,
countries with ageing
population and lower
growth rate has shown
an increase in the trend
of the GDP Growth.

Italy; 44.3
Canada; 40.7

40.0

United Kingdom; 40.5

Australia;
0.96
Australia;
37.5

30.0

0.8
Canada; 0.71
United Kingdom; 0.65

20.0

0.6
Italy; 0.56

10.0

0.4

Germany; 1.4
0.0

Germany

Australia; 2.8

Canada; 2.1

Australia

United Kingdom; 1.3

Canada

Italy; -1.2

United Kingdom

-10.0

Italy

0.2

0
GDP Growth(3Yrs Avg)
Median Age
Migration %

Linear (GDP Growth(3Yrs Avg))

Linear (Median Age)
Linear (Migration %)

GDP Growth Segmentation

ANNUAL GDP Growth <= 1 %

ANNUAL GDP Growth between 2% to 5%

Italy: -1.2 %

Canada: 2.1 %

France: 0.9 %

Australia: 2.8 %

Japan: 1.0 %

Argentina: 4.1 %
Turkey: 5.0 %

Country Avg. - Median Age: 42.86; GDP Growth 0.20 %

Country Avg. - Median Age: 34.8; GDP Growth 3.50 %

ANNUAL GDP Growth between 1% to 2%

ANNUAL GDP Growth > 5 %

United Kingdom:1.3 %

India: 5.4 %

Germany: 1.4 %

Saudi Arabia: 6.1 %

United States: 2.0 %

Indonesia: 6.2 %
China: 8.2 %

Country Avg. - Median Age: 40.36; GDP Growth 1.60 %

Country Avg. - Median Age: 27.65; GDP Growth 6.50 %

Summary
7.00%

In the previous slide, we have segmented

the different groups of growing economy and
prior to that we have analyzed the impact of
age on the growth factor.
Statistical representation of these
segmentation is presented here.
Segmentation is important to analyze
whether there exists anomaly in the different
relationships we have considered previously.
How ever the findings remain the same as
mentioned.
Moving on from the first segment,
categorized by Low GDP Growth Rate and
High Median Age, we can conclude with the
help of the graph
As we move form one segment to another,
the Median Age Decreases and moving form
one segment to another , the GDP Growth
Rate Increases.

50
6.50%
45

6.00%

42.86
40.36

5.00%

40
35

34.8

30

4.00%
3.50%

27.65
25

3.00%

20
15

2.00%

1.60%
10

1.00%
5
0.20%
0.00%

G1

G2
Avg GDP

G3
Linear (Avg GDP)

G4
Avg Age

Findings
Argument in support of Hypothesis:
YOUTH POPULATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE HIGHER GROWTH RATE IN AN
ECONOMY
From the data considered, sampled and analyzed we have deduced that youth labour force
population has a positive effect on the growth of an economy showing a direct relationship
among them.

Argument against the Alternate Hypothesis:

YOUTH POPULATION DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER GROWTH RATE IN AN
ECONOMY
Lack of youth labour force population has the negative impact on the economic growth as cited
in various examples in this hypothesis.

References
"GDP (current US$)". World Development Indicators.
World Bank. Retrieved 1 July 2014.
"GDP growth (annual%)". data.worldbank.org. World
Bank. Retrieved 8 March 2015.
Data.worldbank.org,. 'Labor Force Participation Rate
Stats.oecd.org,. 'LFS By Sex And Age - Indicators
Stats.oecd.org,. 'International Migration Database'