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Concepts and

Techniques

Chapter 7

May 5, 2015

Prediction

Issues regarding classification and prediction

Classification by decision tree induction

Bayesian Classification

Classification by backpropagation

Classification based on concepts from association

rule mining

Other Classification Methods

Prediction

Classification accuracy

Summary

May 5, 2015

Classification:

predicts categorical class labels

classifies data (constructs a model) based on the

training set and the values (class labels) in a

classifying attribute and uses it in classifying new data

Prediction:

models continuous-valued functions, i.e., predicts

unknown or missing values

Typical Applications

credit approval

target marketing

medical diagnosis

treatment effectiveness analysis

May 5, 2015

ClassificationA Two-Step

Process

Each tuple/sample is assumed to belong to a predefined

class, as determined by the class label attribute

The set of tuples used for model construction: training set

The model is represented as classification rules, decision

trees, or mathematical formulae

Model usage: for classifying future or unknown objects

Estimate accuracy of the model

The known label of test sample is compared with the

classified result from the model

Accuracy rate is the percentage of test set samples

that are correctly classified by the model

Test set is independent of training set, otherwise overfitting will occur

May 5, 2015

Model Construction

Training

Data

NAME

Mike

Mary

Bill

Jim

Dave

Anne

RANK

YEARS TENURED

Assistant Prof

3

no

Assistant Prof

7

yes

Professor

2

yes

Associate Prof

7

yes

Assistant Prof

6

no

Associate Prof

3

no

May 5, 2015

Classification

Algorithms

Classifier

(Model)

IF rank = professor

OR years > 6

THEN tenured = yes

5

the Model in Prediction

Classifier

Testing

Data

Unseen Data

(Jeff, Professor, 4)

NAME

Tom

Merlisa

George

Joseph

RANK

YEARS TENURED

Assistant Prof

2

no

Associate Prof

7

no

Professor

5

yes

Assistant Prof

7

yes

May 5, 2015

Tenured?

Learning

measurements, etc.) are accompanied by

labels indicating the class of the observations

etc. with the aim of establishing the existence

of classes or clusters in the data

May 5, 2015

prediction (1): Data Preparation

Data cleaning

handle missing values

Remove the irrelevant or redundant attributes

Data transformation

May 5, 2015

prediction (2): Evaluating Classification

Methods

Predictive accuracy

Speed and scalability

time to construct the model

time to use the model

Robustness

handling noise and missing values

Scalability

efficiency in disk-resident databases

Interpretability:

understanding and insight provded by the model

Goodness of rules

decision tree size

compactness of classification rules

May 5, 2015

Prediction

Issues regarding classification and prediction

Classification by decision tree induction

Bayesian Classification

Classification by backpropagation

Classification based on concepts from association

rule mining

Other Classification Methods

Prediction

Classification accuracy

Summary

May 5, 2015

10

Induction

Decision tree

A flow-chart-like tree structure

Internal node denotes a test on an attribute

Branch represents an outcome of the test

Leaf nodes represent class labels or class distribution

Decision tree generation consists of two phases

Tree construction

Tree pruning

Use of decision tree: Classifying an unknown sample

Test the attribute values of the sample against the decision tree

May 5, 2015

11

Training Dataset

age

<=30

This

<=30

follows 3140

an

>40

example >40

>40

from

3140

Quinlan <=30

<=30

s ID3

>40

<=30

3140

3140

>40

May 5, 2015

income

high

high

high

medium

low

low

low

medium

low

medium

medium

medium

high

medium

student

no

no

no

no

yes

yes

yes

no

yes

yes

yes

no

yes

no

credit_rating

fair

excellent

fair

fair

fair

excellent

excellent

fair

fair

fair

excellent

excellent

fair

excellent

12

age?

<=30

student?

30..40

overcast

yes

>40

credit rating?

no

yes

excellent

fair

no

yes

no

yes

May 5, 2015

13

Induction

Basic

algorithm (a greedy algorithm)

Tree is constructed in a top-down recursive divide-andconquer manner

At start, all the training examples are at the root

Attributes are categorical (if continuous-valued, they are

discretized in advance)

Examples are partitioned recursively based on selected

attributes

Test attributes are selected on the basis of a heuristic or

statistical measure (e.g., information gain)

Conditions for stopping partitioning

All samples for a given node belong to the same class

There are no remaining attributes for further partitioning

majority voting is employed for classifying the leaf

There are no samples left

May 5, 2015

14

Attribute Selection

Measure

All attributes are assumed to be categorical

Can be modified for continuous-valued attributes

Gini index (IBM IntelligentMiner)

All attributes are assumed continuous-valued

Assume there exist several possible split values

for each attribute

May need other tools, such as clustering, to get

the possible split values

Can be modified for categorical attributes

May 5, 2015

15

Information Gain

(ID3/C4.5)

gain

class P and n elements of class N

arbitrary example in S belongs to P or N is

p

p

n

n

defined

as

I ( p, n)

log 2

log 2

pn

pn pn

pn

May 5, 2015

16

Tree Induction

partitioned into sets {S1, S2 , , Sv}

of N, the entropy, or the expected information

needed to classify objects in all subtrees Si is

pi ni

E ( A)

I ( pi , ni )

i 1 p n

by branching on A

Gain( A) I ( p, n) E ( A)

May 5, 2015

17

Attribute Selection by

Information Gain Computation

5

4

Class P: buys_computer =

yes

Class N: buys_computer =

no

age:

age

<=30

3040

>40

pi

2

4

3

May 5, 2015

ni I(pi, ni)

3 0.971

0 0

2 0.971

E ( age)

I ( 2,3)

I ( 4,0)

14

14

5

I (3,2) 0.69

14

Hence

Gain(age) I ( p, n) E (age)

Similarly

Gain(income) 0.029

Gain( student ) 0.151

Gain(credit _ rating ) 0.048

18

IntelligentMiner)

n

index, gini(T) is defined as

2

gini(T ) 1 p j

j 1

If a data set T is split into two subsets T1 and T2 with

sizes N1 and N2 respectively, the gini index of the

split data contains examples from n classes, the gini

index gini(T) is defined asN

N

gini split (T )

T 1)

1 gini(

gini(T 2)

chosen to split the node (need to enumerate all

possible splitting points for each attribute).

May 5, 2015

19

Trees

One rule is created for each path from the root to a leaf

Each attribute-value pair along a path forms a conjunction

The leaf node holds the class prediction

Rules are easier for humans to understand

Example

IF

IF

IF

IF

age = <=30 AND student = yes THEN buys_computer = yes

age = 3140

THEN buys_computer = yes

age = >40 AND credit_rating = excellent THEN

buys_computer = yes

IF age = >40 AND credit_rating = fair THEN buys_computer =

no

May 5, 2015

20

Avoid Overfitting in

Classification

Too many branches, some may reflect anomalies

due to noise or outliers

Result is in poor accuracy for unseen samples

Two approaches to avoid overfitting

Prepruning: Halt tree construction earlydo not

split a node if this would result in the goodness

measure falling below a threshold

Difficult to choose an appropriate threshold

Postpruning: Remove branches from a fully

grown treeget a sequence of progressively

pruned trees

Use a set of data different from the training

data to decide which is the best pruned tree

May 5, 2015

21

Final Tree Size

estimate whether expanding or pruning a node

may improve the entire distribution

is minimized

May 5, 2015

22

Enhancements to basic

decision tree induction

Dynamically define new discrete-valued

attributes that partition the continuous attribute

value into a discrete set of intervals

Handle missing attribute values

Assign the most common value of the attribute

Assign probability to each of the possible values

Attribute construction

Create new attributes based on existing ones

that are sparsely represented

This reduces fragmentation, repetition, and

replication

May 5, 2015

23

statisticians and machine learning researchers

and hundreds of attributes with reasonable speed

relatively faster learning speed (than other

classification methods)

convertible to simple and easy to understand

classification rules

can use SQL queries for accessing databases

comparable classification accuracy with other methods

May 5, 2015

24

Induction Methods in Data

Mining

Studies

SLIQ (EDBT96

Mehta

et al.)

builds an index for each attribute and only class list

and the current attribute list reside in memory

SPRINT (VLDB96 J. Shafer et al.)

constructs an attribute list data structure

PUBLIC (VLDB98 Rastogi & Shim)

integrates tree splitting and tree pruning: stop

growing the tree earlier

RainForest (VLDB98 Gehrke, Ramakrishnan & Ganti)

separates the scalability aspects from the criteria

that determine the quality of the tree

builds an AVC-list (attribute, value, class label)

May 5, 2015

25

induction (Kamber et al97).

Classification at primitive concept levels

E.g., precise temperature, humidity, outlook, etc.

Low-level concepts, scattered classes, bushy

classification-trees

Semantic interpretation problems.

Cube-based multi-level classification

Relevance analysis at multi-levels.

Information-gain analysis with dimension + level.

May 5, 2015

26

Presentation of Classification

Results

May 5, 2015

27

for hypothesis, among the most practical approaches

to certain types of learning problems

Incremental: Each training example can incrementally

increase/decrease the probability that a hypothesis is

correct. Prior knowledge can be combined with

observed data.

Probabilistic prediction: Predict multiple hypotheses,

weighted by their probabilities

Standard: Even when Bayesian methods are

computationally intractable, they can provide a

standard of optimal decision making against which

other methods can be measured

May 5, 2015

28

Bayesian

Theorem

hypothesis h, P(h|D) follows the Bayes theorem

P(h | D) P(D | h)P(h)

P(D)

h

arg max P(h | D) arg max P(D | h)P(h).

MAP

hH

hH

many probabilities, significant computational

cost

May 5, 2015

29

Bayesian classification

using a-posteriori probabilities:

P(C|X) = prob. that the sample tuple

X=<x1,,xk> is of class C.

)

such that P(C|X) is maximal

May 5, 2015

32

Estimating a-posteriori

probabilities

Bayes theorem:

P(C|X) = P(X|C)P(C) / P(X)

C such that P(X|C)P(C) is maximum

May 5, 2015

33

P(x1,,xk|C) = P(x1|C)P(xk|C)

P(xi|C) is estimated as the relative freq of

samples having value xi as i-th attribute in

class C

If i-th attribute is continuous:

P(xi|C) is estimated thru a Gaussian density

function

Computationally easy in both cases

May 5, 2015

34

Outlook

sunny

sunny

overcast

rain

rain

rain

overcast

sunny

sunny

rain

sunny

overcast

overcast

rain

Play-tennis outlook

example: estimating

P(sunny|p) =

P(sunny|n) =

P(xi|C)

2/9

3/5

hot

high

false

N

hot

high

true

N

hot

high

false

P

mild

high

false

P

cool

normal false

P

cool

normal true

N

cool

normal true

P

mild

high

false

N

cool

normal false

P

mild

normal false

P

mild

normal true

P

mild

high

true

P

hot

normal false

P

mild

high

true

N

P(overcast|p) =

4/9

P(overcast|n) =

0

P(rain|p) = 3/9

P(rain|n) = 2/5

temperature

P(hot|p) = 2/9

P(hot|n) = 2/5

P(mild|p) = 4/9

P(mild|n) = 2/5

P(cool|p) = 3/9

P(cool|n) = 1/5

humidity

P(p) = 9/14

P(high|p) = 3/9

P(high|n) = 4/5

P(n) = 5/14

P(normal|p) =

6/9

P(normal|n) =

2/5

windy

May 5, 2015

P(true|p) = 3/9

P(true|n) = 3/5

35

X

false>

P(X|p)P(p) =

P(rain|p)P(hot|p)P(high|p)P(false|p)P(p) =

3/92/93/96/99/14 = 0.010582

P(X|n)P(n) =

P(rain|n)P(hot|n)P(high|n)P(false|n)P(n) =

2/52/54/52/55/14 = 0.018286

May 5, 2015

36

(variables) are often correlated.

reasoning with causal relationships between

attributes

time, considering most important attributes first

May 5, 2015

37

Family

History

Smoker

(FH, S) (FH, ~S)(~FH, S) (~FH, ~S)

LungCancer

Emphysema

LC

0.8

0.5

0.7

0.1

~LC

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.9

for the variable LungCancer

PositiveXRay

Dyspnea

May 5, 2015

38

variables conditionally independent

variables: easy

advance

May 5, 2015

39

Neural Networks

Advantages

prediction accuracy is generally high

robust, works when training examples contain

errors

output may be discrete, real-valued, or a vector of

several discrete or real-valued attributes

fast evaluation of the learned target function

Criticism

long training time

difficult to understand the learned function

(weights)

not easy to incorporate domain knowledge

May 5, 2015

40

A Neuron

x0

w0

x1

w1

xn

wn

Input

weight

vector x vector w

- k

weighted

sum

output y

Activation

function

variable y by means of the scalar product and a

nonlinear function mapping

May 5, 2015

41

Network Training

obtain a set of weights that makes almost all the

tuples in the training data classified correctly

Steps

Initialize weights with random values

Feed the input tuples into the network one by one

For each unit

combination of all the inputs to the unit

Compute the output value using the activation function

Compute the error

Update the weights and the bias

May 5, 2015

Multi-Layer Perceptron

Output vector

Output nodes

Err j O j (1 O j ) Errk w jk

k

j j (l) Err j

wij wij (l ) Err j Oi

Hidden nodes

Err j O j (1 O j )(T j O j )

wij

Input nodes

Oj

I j

1 e

I j wij Oi j

i

Input vector: xi

May 5, 2015

Association-Based Classification

ARCS: Quantitative association mining and

clustering of association rules (Lent et al97)

It mines high support and high confidence rules in the

form of cond_set => y, where y is a class label

patterns) (Dong et al99)

increases significantly from one class to another

Mine Eps based on minimum support and growth rate

May 5, 2015

45

case-based reasoning

Genetic algorithm

May 5, 2015

46

Instance-Based Methods

Instance-based learning:

Store training examples and delay the

processing (lazy evaluation) until a new

instance must be classified

Typical approaches

k-nearest neighbor approach

Euclidean space.

Locally weighted regression

Case-based reasoning

knowledge-based inference

May 5, 2015

47

AllAlgorithm

instances correspond to points in the n-D

space.

The nearest neighbor are defined in terms of

Euclidean distance.

The target function could be discrete- or realvalued.

For discrete-valued, the k-NN returns the most

common value among the k training examples

nearest to xq.

Vonoroi

diagram: the decision surface induced

_

by 1-NN

for_ a _typical set of training examples.

_

_

_

May 5, 2015

.

+

+

xq

48

Algorithm

functions

Calculate the mean values of the k nearest neighbors

Distance-weighted nearest neighbor algorithm

Weight the contribution of each of the k neighbors

according to their distance to the query point xq

Robust to noisy data by averaging k-nearest neighbors

Curse of dimensionality: distance between neighbors

could be dominated by irrelevant attributes.

To overcome it, axes stretch or elimination of the least

relevant attributes.

1

d ( xq , xi )2

May 5, 2015

49

Case-Based Reasoning

Difference: Instances are not points in a Euclidean space

Example: Water faucet problem in CADET (Sycara et al92)

Methodology

Instances represented by rich symbolic descriptions

(e.g., function graphs)

Multiple retrieved cases may be combined

Tight coupling between case retrieval, knowledge-based

reasoning, and problem solving

Research issues

Indexing based on syntactic similarity measure, and

when failure, backtracking, and adapting to additional

cases

May 5, 2015

50

Learning

Decision-tree and Bayesian classification: eager evaluation

Key differences

Lazy method may consider query instance xq when

deciding how to generalize beyond the training data D

Eager method cannot since they have already chosen

global approximation when seeing the query

Efficiency: Lazy - less time training but more time predicting

Accuracy

Lazy method effectively uses a richer hypothesis space

since it uses many local linear functions to form its implicit

global approximation to the target function

Eager: must commit to a single hypothesis that covers the

entire instance space

May 5, 2015

51

Genetic Algorithms

Each rule is represented by a string of bits

An initial population is created consisting of randomly

generated rules

e.g., IF A and Not A then C can be encoded as 100

1

2

2

Based on the notion of survival of the fittest, a new

population is formed to consists of the fittest rules and

their offsprings

The fitness of a rule is represented by its classification

accuracy on a set of training examples

Offsprings are generated by crossover and mutation

May 5, 2015

52

roughly define equivalent classes

A rough set for a given class C is approximated

by two sets: a lower approximation (certain to be

in C) and an upper approximation (cannot be

described as not belonging to C)

Finding the minimal subsets (reducts) of

attributes (for feature reduction) is NP-hard but a

discernibility matrix is used to reduce the

computation intensity

May 5, 2015

53

Fuzzy Set

Approaches

represent the degree of membership (such as using

fuzzy membership graph)

Attribute values are converted to fuzzy values

e.g., income is mapped into the discrete categories

{low, medium, high} with fuzzy values calculated

For a given new sample, more than one fuzzy value

may apply

Each applicable rule contributes a vote for

membership in the categories

Typically, the truth values for each predicted

category are summed

May 5, 2015

54

What Is Prediction?

Non-linear regression

label

May 5, 2015

55

Predictive Modeling in

Databases

Predictive modeling: Predict data values or construct

One can only predict value ranges or category

distributions

Method outline:

Minimal generalization

Prediction

Determine the major factors which influence the

prediction

Data relevance analysis: uncertainty measurement,

entropy analysis, expert judgement, etc.

Multi-level prediction: drill-down and roll-up analysis

May 5, 2015

56

Models in Prediction

Linear regression: Y = + X

Two parameters , and specify the line and

are to be estimated by using the data at hand.

using the least squares criterion to the known

values of Y1, Y2, , X1, X2, .

Multiple regression: Y = b0 + b1 X1 + b2 X2.

Many nonlinear functions can be transformed

into the above.

Log-linear models:

The multi-way table of joint probabilities is

approximated by a product of lower-order

tables.

May 5, 2015

57

region surrounding query instance xq.

Locally weighted linear regression:

The target function f is approximated near xq using

the linear function: f ( x) w0 w1a1( x) wnan ( x)

minimize the squared error: distance-decreasing

weight K

1

E ( xq )

w j

( f ( x) f ( x))2 K (d ( xq , x))

2 xk _nearest _neighbors_of _ x

q

K (d ( xq , x))(( f ( x) f ( x))a j ( x)

x k _ nearest _ neighbors_ of _ xq

a constant, linear, or quadratic function.

May 5, 2015

58

May 5, 2015

59

May 5, 2015

60

Error Rates

Partition: Training-and-testing

(2/3), test set(1/3)

Cross-validation

sub-sample as test data --- k-fold cross-validation

Bootstrapping (leave-one-out)

May 5, 2015

61

accuracy

Applicable to decision trees or

Bayesian classifier

Learn a series of classifiers, where each

classifier in the series pays more

attention to the examples misclassified

by its predecessor

Boosting requires only linear time and

constant space

May 5, 2015

62

For t = 1, 2, , T Do

Obtain a hypothesis (classifier) h (t) under

w(t)

Calculate the error of h(t) and re-weight

the examples based on the error

Normalize w(t+1) to sum to 1

Output a weighted sum of all the

hypothesis, with each hypothesis weighted

according to its accuracy on the training set

May 5, 2015

63

Summary

(mainly in statistics, machine learning & neural

networks)

used data mining techniques with a lot of extensions

applications: thus combining classification with

database techniques should be a promising topic

data, e.g., text, spatial, multimedia, etc..

May 5, 2015

64

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