EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL OF DENGUE IN

PUERTO RICO
Almarely L. Berrios Negrn, Carlo S. Gonzlez Acevedo, Ana M. Rodrguez Lpez
Mentor: Dr. Mayte Cruz-Aponte;
Department of MathematicsPhysics
University of Puerto RicoSIMULATIONS
Cayey

INTRODUCTION
Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquitoborne viral disease in the world. Its transmitted by
several species of mosquito within the genus Aedes,
principally Aedes aegypti. There are four distinct
serotypes of the dengue virus (DEN 1, DEN 2, DEN 3
and DEN 4). Symptoms appear in 2 7 days (on an
average 4 7 days) after the infective bite. Dengue
fever is a flu - like illness that affects infants, young
children and adults and there is no specific treatment
for it. Severe dengue is a potentially lethal complication
but early clinical diagnosis and careful clinical
management by experienced physicians and nurses
often save lives. More than 70% of the disease burden
is in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the incidence
and severity of disease have increased rapidly in recent
years. In Puerto Rico, an estimated yearly mean of 580
years per million population were lost to disability
adjusted life from dengue infections between 1984 and
1994. Urbanization, rapid movement of people and
goods, favorable climatic conditions and lack of trained
staff has all contributed to the global increase of
dengue. On this research, we plan to create an
epidemiological model to describe mathematically the
infection in Puerto Rico and create simulations to
understand the spreading of the disease.

AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS

B Host
Distinct Incubation Period for the
Period for the Vector

C Distinct Infection Period for the

Host

A Using

Images from salud.gov.pr Weekly Dengue Report from week 40 (October 1

- 7, 2014), report as of November 19, 2014. Weekly Surveillance Report
for Chikungunya. Department of Health of Puerto Rico.

MATHEMATICAL MODEL
All simulations use the parameters as given in
the Mathematical Model section varying the
incubation period of the host 1/x (for Figure
A), the incubation period of the vector 1/px
(Figure B) and the infection period of the host
1/x (Figure C).

Distinct Incubation

1/px = 8 days, 1/x = 10 days and

varying 1/x = 5, 7 and 10 days we observe
that as the incubation period of the host
increases the epidemic start days later and the
peak of the epidemic is lower and occurs later
but
the
epidemic
duration
is
similar
for
all.
Using 1/ = 5 days, 1/
= 10 days and
x

varying 1/px = 8, 10 and 12 days we observe

that as the incubation period of the vector
increases the epidemic start very few days
later and the pick is not significantly lower, the
epidemic duration is similar for all but this
changes
are =
not10
significant.
Using
1/p
days, 1/x = 7 days and
x
varying 1/x = 5, 7 and 10 days we observe
that as the infection period of the host
increases the epidemic start a few days later
but there is a significant change in the
epidemic duration, the peak height and overall
the final size of the epidemic (i.e. the number
of people infected overall.

FUTURE WORK

Parameters
1/ 5 10
days
x
v

0.75

0.50

1/x
1/px
x

4 10
days
8 12
days
0.01 =
1%

Description
Days the host is infected
Probability of effective contact for
vector
Probability of effective contact for
humans
Days of incubation in host
Days of disease incubation in
vector
Probability of death by the disease

Where x will indicate a distinct type of

Dengue.

Phases
Febrile Phase
Critical Phase

2 7 days
Occurs on days 3
-7

Focus on working on the model and searching for more information about the infection to adjust the
parameters for our model.
Describe epidemiologically with the use of our model the popular infection called Dengue.
Further on, we need to establish numerical and statistical values for our model and analyze them so
we can incorporate our research into a mathematical structure.

SELECTED REFERENCES

1. Samat, N. A., & Percy, D. F. Numerical Analysis of the SIR-SI Differential Equations with Application
to Dengue Disease Mapping in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
2. World Health Organization, Special Programme for Research, Training in Tropical Diseases, World
Health Organization. Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health
Organization. Epidemic, & Pandemic Alert. (2009). Dengue: guidelines for diagnosis, treatment,
prevention and control. World Health Organization.
3. Semana 40 - 43 del 22 - 28 de octubre del 2014. Informe Semanal de Vigilancia del Dengue.
Departamento de Salud de Puerto Rico Informe. http://www.salud.gov.pr/dengue/CDC
%202014/Informe%20Dengue%20Semana%2040%202014.pdf. Accesado, 24 de noviembre de
2014.

Acknowledgments

We thank the BRIC program and the University of Puerto Rico at Cayey for the opportunity to conduct
this research and our mentor Dr. Mayte Cruz-Aponte for guiding us.