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Theory 1
Lecture Note Chapter 4
Money and Inflation
University of Waterloo
Department of Economics
Spring 2015
Introduction
Inflation is always and everywhere a
monetary phenomenon.
.. Milton
Friedman
Inflation is always and everywhere a
fiscal phenomenon.
.. Thomas
Sargent
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
Introduction
This chapter explains the classical
theory of money and inflation.
The chapter has three main goals:
(1). To explain the economic meaning
of money and introduce money
supply and money demand.
(2). To examine the effects of
monetary policy when prices are
flexible.
(3). To discuss the costs of inflation.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
% change in
GDP deflator
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
What is inflation?
Here is a great illustration of the power of inflation:
In 1970, the New York Times cost 15 cents, the median
price of a single-family home was $23,400, and the
average wage in manufacturing was $3.36 per hour.
In 2008, the Times cost $1.50, the price of a home was
$183,300, and the average wage was $19.85 per hour.
1950
1970
2008
Money: Definition
Money is the stock
of assets that can be
readily used to make
transactions.
Money: Functions
medium of exchange
we use it to buy stuff.
store of value
transfers purchasing power from the present to the
future.
unit of account
the common unit by which everyone measures prices
and values.
The ease with which money is converted into other
things such as goods and services--is sometimes called
moneys liquidity.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
10
Money: Types
1. fiat money is money by declaration.
has no intrinsic value
example: the paper currency we use
2. commodity money
has intrinsic value
examples: gold coins, cigarettes in P.O.W.
camps
3. When people use gold as money, the
economy is said to be on a gold standard.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
12
Discussion Question
Which of these are money?
a. Currency
b. Checks
c. Deposits in checking accounts
(demand deposits)
d. Credit cards
e. Certificates of deposit
(time deposits)
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
13
14
15
Open-Market Operations
purchase and sale of U.S. Treasury B
To expand the money supply:
BOC buys Canadian Government Bonds and
pays for them with new money.
To reduce the money supply:
BOC sells Canadian Government Bonds and
receives the existing dollars and then
destroys them.
18
amount
($ billions)
Currency
1,214
M1
C + demand deposits,
travelers checks,
other checkable deposits
2,270
M2
9,952
20
Velocity
basic concept: the rate at which money
circulates.
definition: the number of times the average
dollar bill changes hands in a given time period.
example: In 2009,
$500 billion in transactions
money supply = $100 billion
The average dollar is used in five
transactions in 2009
So, velocity = 5
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
21
Velocity, cont.
This suggests the following
definition:
T
V
where
V = velocity
T = value of all
transactions
M = money supply
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
22
Velocity, cont.
Use nominal GDP as a proxy for total
transactions.
P Y
Then,
V
M
where
P
= price of output
(GDP
deflator)
Y
= quantity of output
GDP)
P Y = value of output
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
23
(real
24
25
26
27
28
29
M V P Y
30
31
M
V
P
Y
The quantity theory of money assumes
V
V is constant, so
= 0.
V
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
32
P
P
M
P Y
M
P
Y
M Y
M
Y
33
M
Y
34
M
Y
35
36
37
Inflation rate
Belarus
Turkey
Argentina
10.0
Euro Area
U.S.
1.0
0.1
Switzerland
Singapore
China
10
100
39
40
M2 growth rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
inflation
rate
0%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Seigniorage
To spend more without raising taxes or
selling bonds, the govt can print money.
The revenue raised from printing money
is called seigniorage
(pronounced SEEN-your-idge).
The inflation tax:
Printing money to raise revenue causes
inflation. Inflation is like a tax on people
who hold money.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
43
Seigniorage
While the government can print money
and use that money to purchase goods
and services, it obviously does not get
these goods and services for free.
Someone is paying for them. In effect,
when the government prints new money, it
levies an inflation tax. As more money is
introduced into the economy, we now
know that there will be inflation.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
44
Seigniorage
An increase in the money supply
increases the general price level.
This makes existing money in the
economy worth less; existing money
holdings decline in real value. Inflation
serves as a tax on real balances.
45
Seigniorage
Seigniorage is not an important source of
revenue in North America, but it has been
used to finance a significant fraction of
government spending in some other
countries.
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
1960-2009
nominal
interest rate
14%
10%
6%
2%
inflation rate
-2%
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
CHAPTER
4 Money
and Inflation
1995
59
2000
2005
2010
Georgia
(percent,
logarithmic
scale)
Romania
Turkey
Brazil
10
Zimbabwe
Israel
Kenya
U.S.
Ethiopia
Germany
1
10
100
Inflation rate
60
(percent, logarithmic scale)
1000
61
a. Solve for i.
b. If the Fed increases the money growth rate by
2 percentage points per year, find i.
c. Suppose the growth rate of Y falls to 1% per
year.
What will happen to ?
What must the Fed do if it wishes to
keep constant?
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
62
Answers
V is constant, M grows 5% per year,
Y grows 2% per year, r = 4.
a. First, find = 5 2 = 3.
Then, find i = r + = 4 + 3 = 7.
b. i = 2, same as the increase in the money
growth rate.
c. If the Fed does nothing, = 1.
To prevent inflation from rising,
Fed must reduce the money growth rate by
1 percentage point per year.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
63
64
65
66
67
68
L(r , Y )
e
69
Equilibrium
M
e
L(r , Y )
P
The supply of
real money
balances
Real money
demand
70
Y F (K , L )
P adjusts to make
M
L( i , Y )
P
71
How P responds to M
M
e
L(r , Y )
P
72
73
How P responds to
M
L(r e , Y )
P
P to make M P fall
to re-establish eq'm
74
75
Discussion question
Why is inflation bad?
What costs does inflation impose on
society? List all the ones you can think of.
Focus on the long run.
Think like an economist.
76
A common misperception
Common misperception:
inflation reduces real wages
This is true only in the short run, when
nominal wages are fixed by contracts.
(Chap. 3) In the long run,
the real wage is determined by
labor supply and the marginal product of
labor,
not the price level or inflation rate.
Consider the data
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
77
$20
1965 = 100
700
600
$15
500
Nominal average
hourly earnings,
(1965 = 100)
400
300
200
100
$10
$5
0
$0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
800
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
Hyperinflation
def: 50% per month
All the costs of moderate inflation
90
91
period
CPI Inflation
% per year
M2 Growth
% per year
Israel
1983-85
338%
305%
Brazil
1987-94
1256%
1451%
Bolivia
1983-86
1818%
1727%
Ukraine
1992-94
2089%
1029%
Argentina
1988-90
2671%
1583%
Dem. Republic
of Congo / Zaire
1990-96
3039%
2373%
Angola
1995-96
4145%
4106%
Peru
1988-90
5050%
3517%
Zimbabwe
2005-07
5316%
9914%
93
Useful websites
http://minneapolisfed.org/pubs/region/int.cfm
http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/dictionary
www.federalreserve.gov
www.bankofcanada.ca
Textbooks on Monetary economics (Monetary economics is a
sub discipline of economics that is very closely related to
macroeconomics but that pays particular attention to financial
institutions):
-Gary Smith, Money, Banking, and Financial Intermediation
(Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1991)
-Laurence Ball, Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (New
York: Worth Publishers, 2008)
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
94
Assignment
Questions 3, 4 & 8 from the textbook.
95
Chapter Summary
Costs of inflation
Expected inflation
96
Chapter Summary
Hyperinflation
caused by rapid money supply growth when money
97
Chapter Summary
Classical dichotomy
In classical theory, money is neutral--does not affect
real variables.
So, we can study how real variables are determined
w/o reference to nominal ones.
Then, money market equilibrium determines price
level and all nominal variables.
Most economists believe the economy works this
way in the long run.
98