Académique Documents
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Market Intelligence
Julie Edell Britton
Session 2
August 8, 2009
Todays Agenda
Announcements
Southwestern Conquistador Beer Case
Backward Market Research
Secondary data quality
Measure types
Hypothesis Testing and Chi-Square
Announcements
National Insurance Case for Sat. 8/22
Download National.sav from platform
SPSS on machines in MBA PC Lab and see
installation direction on the platform on how to install
on your machine
Do tutorial to familiarize with SPSS
Use handout in course pack to answer questions: 1-6
Stephen will do a tutorial on Friday, 8/21 from 1:00
-2:15 in the MBA PC Lab and be available on 8/21
from 7 9 pm in the MBA PC Lab to answer
questions
Submit slides by 8:00 am on Sat. 8/22
3
SWCB Objectives
Feasibility decisions
Problem formulation, information needs
Role of secondary data
Role of research and time budgets
Quality, cost, speed
SWCB Questions
What should Mr. Gomez do?
Consumer behavior?
What information do we need to make
decision?
Which reports allow that information to be
estimated?
What decision do these reports suggest?
SWCB Conclusions
Feasibility studies need data on: industry demand,
market share, investment, costs, margins. Break
even analysis common.
Conceptualize data before doing research
Effort at problem formulation stage reduces later
costs of doing research
Secondary data is the place to start
6
Todays Agenda
Announcements
Southwestern Conquistador Beer Case
Backward Market Research
Secondary data quality
Measure types
Hypothesis Testing and Chi-Square
Consumers Consumers
Upbeat
Learning of
Feelings
Ad Claims
Consumers
Attitude
toward the
Ad
Consumers
Attitude
toward the
Brand
Ad A
Ad B
Ad Score = .25 UpF +.20 Claims + .15 AAd + .40 AB
Action Standard - Run the Ad with the Higher Ad Score
Business Decisions - What decisions will be made and what actions will
be taken as a result of the research? (If appropriate, specify alternatives
being considered). What other data or business considerations will impact
the decision?
Budget How much money has been budgeted for this research? To
Research Firm
Timing
Cost
Market Research Department Travel Cost
Project Name
End User Name
1.
2.
3.
4.
Descriptive
1-way: frequencies, proportions, means,
medians
2-way: correlations, crosstabs
Causal
Assess cause-effect relationships
Todays Agenda
Announcements
Southwestern Conquistador Beer Case
Backward Market Research
Secondary data quality
Measure types
Hypothesis Testing and Chi-Square
3 Key Skills
Backward market research (1, 2)
Getting data and judging its quality
Secondary data (2)
Exploratory research (3)
Descriptive research (4,5)
Causal research (6)
Evaluating Sources of
Secondary Data
If you cant find the source of a number,
dont use it. Look for further data.
Always give sources when writing a report.
Applies for Focus Group write-ups too
Be skeptical.
Disadvantages
there is a lot of data out there
numbers sometimes conflict
categories may not fit your needs
Got Desired
Marketing
Internship
Term 1
76%
24%
Term 3
51%
49%
Evaluating Sources of
Secondary Data
If you cant find the source of a number,
dont use it. Look for further data.
Always give sources when writing a report.
Applies for Focus Group write-ups too
Be skeptical.
Be Skeptical
MBAs May Be A Marketing Liability
A master of Business Administration degree is not only worthless, it
can work against a marketer, according to a survey of marketing
executives from 32 consumer-products companies by consulting firm
Ken Coogan & Partners...Marketing executives from 18
underperforming companies which had sales grow 7% less than their
categories on average in the last two years ended August 2005 were
twice as likely to have been recruited out of MBA programs than
marketing executives from out-performing companies, which averaged
growth 6.2% faster than their categories over the two years.
Source: AdAge.com, March 21, 2006
Mktg. Executive
had an MBA
Overperformers (n = 9)
55.5%
44.5%
Underperformers (n = 18)
88.9%
11.1%
Todays Agenda
Announcements
Southwestern Conquistador Beer Case
Secondary data quality
Measure types
Hypothesis Testing and Chi-Square
Measure Types
Nominal: Unordered Categories
Male=1; Female = 2;
Measure 1
Measure 2
Medians
107
Measure 1
108
109
Measure 2
10
110
Todays Agenda
Announcements
Southwestern Conquistador Beer Case
Backward Market Research
Secondary data quality
Measure types
Hypothesis Testing and Chi-Square
Raw Frequencies
Accept
Reject
140
860
1000
60
740
800
200
1600
B.
Cell Percentages
Accept
Reject
.078
.478
.556
.033
.411
.444
.111
.889
1.0
M
F
C.
Row Percentages
D.
Column Percentages
Accept
Reject
140/200
= .700
60/200
=.300
1.00
860/1600
= .538
740/1600
= .462
1.00
Rule of Thumb
If a potential causal interpretation exists, make
numbers add up to 100% at each level of the
causal factor.
Above: it is possible that gender (row) causes
or influences acceptance (column), but not that
acceptance influences gender. Hence, row
percentages (format C) would be desirable.
Hypothesis
Hypothesis: What you believe the relationship is between the
measures.
Theory
Empirical Evidence
Beliefs
Experience
Here: Believe that acceptance is related to gender
Null Hypothesis: Acceptance is not related to gender
Logic of hypothesis testing: Negative Inference
The null hypothesis will be rejected by showing that a given
observation would be quite improbable, if the hypothesis was true.
Want to see if we can reject the null.
Chi-Square Test
Used for nominal data, to compare the observed
frequency of responses to what would be expected
under some specific null hypothesis.
Two types of tests
Contingency (or Relationship) tests if the variables
are independent i.e., no significant relationship
exists between the two variables
Goodness of fit test Compare whether the data
sampled is proportionate to some standard
Chi-Square Test
(Oi Ei )
Ei
i 1
2
2
With (r-1)*(c-1)
degrees of freedom
number in cell i
Oi Observed number in cell i Ei Expected
under independence
i
number of cells
number of rows
number of columns
Observed Frequencies
C.
B.
Cell Percentages
Accept
Reject
.078
.478
.556
.033
.411
.444
.111
.889
1.0
Expected Frequencies
Accept
Reject
.111*.556*1800=111
.889*.556*1800=890
.111*.444*1800= 89
.889*.444*1800=710
Chi-Square Test
(Oi Ei )
Ei
i 1
2
2
With (r-1)*(c-1)
degrees of freedom
2
=(140-111)2/111 + (860-890)2/890 + (60-89)2/89 + (740-710)2/710
= 19.30 So?
i
Decision Rule
1. Significance Level -
.05
4.
Chi-Square Table
Chi-Square Test
Used for nominal data, to compare the observed
frequency of responses to what would be expected
under some specific null hypothesis.
Two types of tests
Contingency (or Relationship) tests if the variables
are independent i.e, no significant relationship
exists
Goodness of fit test Compare whether the data
sampled is proportionate to some standard
750
625
625
500
Chi-Square Test
(Oi Ei )
Ei
i 1
2
2
With (k-1)
degrees of freedom
2
=(680-750)2/750 + (520-625)2/625 + (675-625)2/625 + (625-500)2/500
= 59.42
i
So?
3. Construct a decision rule
Decision Rule
1. Significance Level -
.05
4.
Chi-Square Table
Recap
Finding & Evaluating Secondary Data
Measure Types
permissible transformations
Meaningful statistics
Index #s
Crosstabs
Casting right direction
Chi-square statistic
Contingency Test
Goodness of Fit Test