Académique Documents
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Learning Objectives
Identify Risks
Using a quantitative approach for developing a probabilistic model for understanding and
responding to the risks identified.
Focusing on a qualitative analysis concerning the impact and likelihood of the risks that
were identified.
Deciding which risks can impact the project. Risk identification generally includes many of
the project stakeholders and requires an understanding of the projects goal, as well as
the projects scope, schedule, budget, and quality objectives.
Determining how to approach and plan the project risk management activities. An output
of this process is the development of a risk management plan.
Developing procedures and techniques to reduce the threats of risks, while enhancing the
likelihood of opportunities.
8-4
Providing an early warning system to monitor identified risks and any new risks. This
system ensures that risk responses have been implemented as planned and had the
effect as intended.
8-5
8-6
Definitions
Risk
8-7
8-8
Risk Planning
8-9
Risk Identification
Framework
8-10
Learning Cycles
Brainstorming
Nominal Group Technique
Delphi Technique
Interviews
Checklists
SWOT Analysis
Cause & Effect (a.k.a. Fishbone/Ishikawa)
Past Projects
8-11
8-12
8-13
SWOT Analysis
8-14
8-15
8-16
8-17
Payoff Table
A
Probability
Schedule Risk
A*B
Payoff
Prob *
Payoff
(In thousands)
(In thousands)
5%
$ 200
$10
20%
$ 150
$30
50%
$ 100
$50
20%
5%
$ (50)
100%
8-18
$0
($3)
$88
The
Expected
Value
8-19
0 - 100%
0-10
P*I
Risk (Threats)
Probability
Impact
Score
40%
1.6
50%
3.0
10%
0.9
80%
4.8
60%
4.2
20%
0.6
5%
0.4
ITProjectRiskImpactAnalysis
8-20
Risk
Rankings
Risk (Threats)
8-21
Rankin
g
Discrete
Binomial
Continuous
8-22
Normal
PERT
TRIANG
8-23
Normal Distribution
8-24
Normal Distribution
8-25
PERT Distribution
8-26
PERT Distribution
8-27
Triangular Distribution
8-28
Simulations
Monte Carlo
8-29
8-30
8-31
8-32
Risk Strategies
Accept or Ignore
Management Reserves
Contingency Reserves
Contingency Plans
Avoidance
Mitigate
Transfer
E.g. insurance
8-33
Probability? Impact?
Project constraints
Available resources?
8-34
Risk Audits
Risk Reviews
8-35
8-36
Risk Evaluation
8-37
8-38