Dollar Index (Daily) ~ “Unorthodox model” “d”

z
-c-
-a-?
y
-g-

-e- -b-
79.53
support
w -c- x
-c-
-f-

-d-
-a-

-b- “e”
-a- x

-b- If seen a lot of “kooky” wave counts for the DXY, so I no longer feel “out of line” for putting forward
these concepts of alternative corrective moves. It’s pretty clear that we’re dealing with a strange
“form” from last year’s lows. I still think this “d” wave needs to last a couple of more weeks and
81.70 continues to be near term resistance. Several people have noted the new “popularity” for the
DXY--this is evident in things like the “Commitment of Traders” report and Sentiment reading. The
idea is that Dollar has become “too” popular recently and that we’re likely due for a correction--I
can’t disagree too much with that. A multi-week pullback would also fit the longer term model.
However, it’s worth noting that Gold sentiment and long exposure also exploded from decades low
bearish readings back in 2001, and look how long that trend lasted…..

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Check out the swing in “net” exposure to Gold in early 2001. Speculators quickly got off the “bear train” and hopped on to the
“bullish” side--and, they never looked back. The big rush had to be “consolidated” for sure, but the point is that a big swing in
sentiment may not necessarily be a contrarian signal at all….

250000

200000
Net Speculative Length Gold
(Comex Futures Contracts)
150000

100000

50000

-50000

-100000
1/2/01

3/2/01

5/2/01

9/2/01

1/2/02

5/2/02

9/2/02

1/2/03

5/2/03

9/2/03

1/2/04

5/2/04

7/2/04

9/2/04

1/2/05
7/2/01

11/2/01

3/2/02

7/2/02

11/2/02

3/2/03

7/2/03

11/2/03

3/2/04

11/2/04
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
(Z) S&P 500 mini Futures (180 min.)
“c”

There was not follow through selling yesterday. In fact, the market looks to be congesting in a triangle. This opens up this sort of
wave model, which is a slight modification to earlier theories. This would call for one more wave [5] higher. At this point,
confidence is fairly low. The much bigger picture still looks bearish, but the micro triangle development can’t be ignored.

[5]

[3]
[.5]

-x-
[.3]

[4]
[.4]
[.1]

[1] [.x]
-w- [.2]

(a) [.y]
[2]

[.w]
(b)

Wave [2] could not have

ended here because it’s
too deep of a correction.
-y-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

(Z) S&P 500 mini Futures (180 min.)
“c”

The reason short term model confidence is low is that we could just as easily be looking at this development where an (abc)
correction finished as we had thought, but now we’re going to lapse into an -x- wave development which will precede another (abc)
move higher. It’s never easy being a short….

-w-
(c)
[5]
[3]
[.5]
-x-
[.3]

[.4]
-x-
[.1] [4]

[1]
-w- [.2]

(a) [2]

(b)

-y-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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