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PROBABILITY AN
APPLICATION
Dr. Laldinliana
Department of Commerce
Mizoram University
Who is Bayes?
Why Bayesian?
Bayes
theorem
finds
the
actual
probability of an event from the results
of your tests. For example, you can:
Correct for measurement errors. If you know
the real probabilities and the chance of a false
positive and false negative, you can correct for
measurement errors.
Relate the actual probability to the measured
test probability. Bayes theorem lets you relate
Pr(A|X), the chance that an event A happened
given the indicator X, and Pr(X|A), the chance the
indicator X happened given that event A occurred.
Example
Given mammogram test results and known
error rates, you can predict the actual chance
of having cancer.
An article describes a cancer testing scenario:
1% of women have breast cancer (and therefore
99% do not).
80% of mammograms detect breast cancer when
it is there (and therefore 20% miss it).
9.6% of mammograms detect breast cancer when
its not there (and therefore 90.4% correctly
return a negative result).
Historical criteria #1
Multiple, Independent Sources
Criterion
Historical criteria #2
Enemy Attestation Criterion
Rome officials, Syrian philosopher,
traditional jewish texts
Testimony of Saul of Tarsus
Historical criteria #3
Principle of Embarrassment Criterion
Women attestation
Disciples have no category of
understanding about the coming
death of Jesus
Historical criteria #4
Eyewitness Testimony Criterion
Matthew, John, Paul, Peter
Epistles of Jude and James
Historical criteria #5
Early Source Criterion
The 4 Gospel accounts were written within
35-65 years after the event
While,
Romes Caesar Augustus written in 6
works, except his funeral note, the earliest
work was Plutarchs, which was at least 90
years after event. Suetonius and Tacitus
after 100 years, Appian after 100-150
years, Dio Cassius after 175-200 years
Minimal facts #1
Jesus died by crucifixion
4 Gospels
Suetonius
Tacitus
Pliny The Younger
Thallus
Lucian of Samosata
Mara Bar Saparion
Josephus
Talmud
Minimal facts #2
His disciples believed theyve seen the
resurrected Jesus
A. They proclaimed it
Pauls epistles
Oral tradition
Gospels and works of early church fathers
Clement of Rome
Polycarp
Letter of Barnabas
Minimal facts #3
Paul believed he encountered the resurrected Jesus
Minimal facts #4
Skeptic James was converted
Minimal facts #5
Empty tomb
Jerusalem factor
Enemy attestations
Testimonies of women
Evidence shows
resurrection did happen
(Scale 1-10)
1/1
0
1/
9
1/
8
1/
7
1/
6
1/
5
1/
4
1/
3
2/
1
3/
1
4/
1
5/
1
6/1
7/
1
8/
1
9/
1
10/
1
.10
.
11
.
1
3
.
1
4
.
1
7
.
2
0
.
25
.
3
3
.
50
1 2
10
PAFTER =
WHERE, M = P(E|R)/P(E|R*)
= 96%
THEREFORE,
THE
OCCURRENCE
OF
JESUS
RESURRECTION IS MORE PROBABLE BY 46%(THAT IS
96%-50%) THAN NOT