Flood prediction

Flood prediction
is the study of rainfall patterns, catchment characteristics, and river
hydrographs to predict the future average frequency of occurrence of
flood events. Flood predictions seek to estimate the probable discharge
that, on average, will be exceeded only once in any particular period,
hence the use of such terms as 50-year flood and 100-year flood.

Frequency of Flooding
we will see how flood frequencies can be determined for any given
stream if data is available for discharge of the stream over an
extended period of time. Such data allows statistical analysis to
determine how often a given discharge or stage of a river is
expected. From this analysis a recurrence interval can be
determined and a probability calculated for the likelihood of a given
discharge in the stream for any year. The data needed to perform
this analysis are the yearly maximum discharge of a stream from
one gaging station over a long enough period of time.

In order to determine the recurrence interval (RI), the yearly discharge

values are first ranked. Each discharge is associated with a rank, m,
with m = 1 given to the maximum discharge over the years of record, m
= 2 given to the second highest discharge, m = 3 given to the third
highest discharge, etc

The smallest discharge will receive a rank equal to the number of years
over which there is a record, n. Thus, the discharge with the smallest
value will have m = n.

The number of years of record, n, and the rank for each peak discharge
are then used to calculate recurrence interval, R by the following
equation, called the Weibull equation:

The Recurrence
Interval (RI) is
calculated as follows:
RI = (n +1) Rank, where
n is the # of years of data

Calculate the RI for the 21 years of data. (Some RI values have been determined for
you.)
Year

Qmax (cfs)

Rank #

RI (yrs

1975

195

20

1.1

1976

288

18

1977

1251

1978

496

16

1979

109

21

1980

881

1981

266

1982

950

f.

g.

1983

2096

h.

i.

1984

1685

1985

1205

a.

b.

2.4

d.

c.
1.05
e.

19

5
k.

1.2

j.
2.2

Year

Qmax (cfs)

Rank #

1986

1350

1987

301

17

1.3

1988

661

15

1.5

1989

980

11

2.0

1990

3620

22

1991

1680

3.7

1992

1650

3.1

1993

2554

m.

7.3

1994

2831

n.

11.0

1995

906

l.

RI (yrs
2.8

13

1.7

Determining Flooding Probabilities

Keep in mind that every year the probability (P) of a Maximum Annual
Peak Discharge (we'll call this a flood) with a given recurrence interval
(RI) is 1 divided by the Recurrence Interval
P = 1 / RI
From that it follows that the probability of there NOT being a flood within
one year is
P(NOT) = (1 - 1 / RI)
Over a period of X years, the probability of there NOT being a flood with
a certain recurrence interval is,
P(NOT in X years) = P(NOT) X = (1 - 1 / RI) X
And finally, the probability of there bing a certain size flood in X years is
P(Within X years) = 1 - P(NOT in X years) = 1 - (1 - 1 / RI) X

Answer these questions.

1. What's the probability of a 25 year flooding event occurring each year?

2. Given that a 25-year flooding event has a probability of 4 % of occurring each year
(1/25), what is the probability that a 25-year flood will NOT occurr in a given year?
3. A 25 -year type flood had the probability of 4% (1/25) of occurring in a given year
and a 96% probability of NOT occurring (100- 4). What's the probability that there
will NOT be a 25 year type flood in a 10 year period?
4. A 25 -year type flood had the probability of 4% of occurring in a given year and a
96% probability of NOT occurring. There is a 66.5% probability that there will NOT
be a 25 year flood in a 10 year period. What's the probability that there WILL be a
25 year flood with a 10 year period?
5. Using what you learned above, what's the probability of there being a 50 year type
flood in a 20 year period?

Recurrenc
e Interval
(years

Probability
each year

P ( in 10
years)

P (in 50
years)

P (in 100
years)

50%

10

10%

65.1%

25

4%

33.5%

87%

5. ____%

50

1._____ %

18.3%

63.6%

86.7%

100

1.0%

3. ____%

39.5%

6. ____%

1000

0.1%

1%

4. %

9.5%

2._____%

0.1%

0.5%

1.0%

10000

We can use this equation to

calculate how the probabilities
change over time. The result is
depicted in the graph below for
P= 0.01 (100 year flood)

Two important points

emerge:

The probability of a 100 year

flood occurring in 100 years is
NOT 100%! (See below)

The probability of a 100 year

flood occurring in 30 years (the
lifetime of the average home
mortgage) is 26.0%