Global Consumer Markets Service

Mike Sweet, Senior Consultant, Business Planning Solutions

Michael.sweet@globalinsight.com
781-301-9039

July 2004
Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc.
Global Insight

• Premier economic analysis and consulting organization

• Most comprehensive coverage of countries, regions and
industries available from any single source
• Common analytical framework and a consistent set of
assumptions applied to diverse capabilities and products
• The BEST track record among commercial forecasters. Wall
Street Journal, January 2, 2004
• Broad range of capabilities covering:
 Consumer Market Sizing
 Demographic Analysis
 Performance Benchmarking Tools
 Retail Sales & Consumer Spending Forecasting
 Strategic and Tactical Planning Tools

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 2

Global Consumer Markets

 Coverage

 Samples and Case Studies

 Deliverables

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 3

Global Consumer Markets Database

A Tool to …
Income
Demographics Distribution
 Assess Overall Market
Attractiveness

– Size Country Markets

– Anticipate Growth by Customer
Segment
– Identify Market Risk & Exposure
Socio-Economics
 Conduct Product Penetration Rate
Analysis Size & Forecast
Your
target market

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Global Consumer Markets Database

Uncover market opportunity & risk

 Cross-country comparable data

 10-year forecasts plus 10 or more years of history, annual frequency
 22 consumer product categories
 Detailed household income distribution forecasts
 95 Countries
 Population by gender and age
 Ability to generate custom alternative
scenarios
 Semi-annual updates

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Take it to the Next Level

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Consumer Spending & Risk

Buying Power Indicators Spending by Category *

National Wealth Food
Gross National Income Alcoholic Beverages
Disposable Income Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Per Capita Disposable Income Tobacco
Income Distribution Clothing & Shoes
Household Equipment
Household Energy
Consumer Spending by Type Other Household Services
Durables Transportation Equipment
Semi-durables Transportation Services
Non-durables Communication
Services Entertainment
Education
Medical
Financial & Other Services
Restaurants & Hotels
Consumer Market Risk Indicator Personal Care
Custom weighted index of relevant risk factors * Additional categories can be added on a custom
to companies servicing the consumer markets basis

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 7

Demographics and Income Distribution by
Country

Socio - Economics Household Income

Urban Population Distribution *
Households and Average Household Size <$5K
Educational Attainment Index and Illiteracy Rate >$5K–<$10K
Education Expenditures >$10K–<$20K
Health Expenditures >$20K–<$30K
Education Enrollment (primary, secondary, tertiary) >$30K–<$40K
Labor Force (male and female), unemployment >$40K–<$50K
Life Expectancy and Fertility Rate >$50K–<$60K
>$60K–<$70K
>$70K–<$80K
Population by Age and Sex >$80K–<$90K
0 to 14 30 to 44 >$90K–<$100K
15 to 19 44 to 54 >$100K–<$150K
20 to 24 55 to 64 >$150K
25 to 29 Over 65 * Additional segments can be
Total population added on a custom basis

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 8

Global Consumer Markets

 Coverage

 Samples and Case Studies

 Deliverables

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 9

Data is Delivered in an Easy-to-use
Excel Format

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 10

Data is Delivered in an Easy-to-use
Excel Format

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Risk and Reward Trade-off: Selected Countries

A composite measure of risk

facing companies selling to Risk vs. Reward: What’s your comfort level?
consumer markets
High risk markets
70 offering poor growth
Iran
Turkey
60 Saudi Arabia
Russia
South Africa
Consumer Market Risk

50 Indonesia rd
wa
(1=least risky)

e
S. Korea v s. R
k
40
Thailand
Ris
Germany
Japan
30 USA
Chile
UK
India
Lower risk, high
20 opportunity markets

10
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Forecast Growth in Nominal Spending on Clothing & Shoes
(CAGR, 2003-2006)

Size of Circles = 2003 market size

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 12
Ranking of Markets by Number of Households
Earning $10,000 or More
Number of households with income >US $10,000 (1997$)
1993 2003 2010 2020
U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S.
Japan Japan Japan China
Germany Germany China Japan
France China Germany Germany
U.K. France France Brazil
Italy U.K. U.K. France
Brazil Italy Brazil U.K.
Russia Brazil Italy Russia
Spain S. Korea Mexico Mexico
S. Korea Mexico Russia Italy
Source: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Model (incorporating U.N. and World Bank data)

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Number of young children peaked in 1996

Population 0 to 4 years old (millions)

535

Top Declining
530

525 Changing
demographics
520
in your core
515

510 Markets segments can

have a
profound
impact on
505

500 Top Growing

China 2 market demand
2000

2010
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

Markets
India
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Case Study #1 – Calculating Company
X’s Market Opportunity in Brazil

Income Bracket Absolute Segment Estimated Potential

in Real US$ Size in 2003 XPenetration Rate= Customers

Less than $5K 19.5 million 9% 1.7 million

Between $5K and $10K 13.5 million 15% 2.0 million

Between $10K and $15K 6.1 million 41% 2.5 million

Between $15K and $20K 2.9 million 86% 2.5 million

Greater than $20K 9.2 million 97% 8.9 million

Total Households 51.2 million Opportunity 17.6 million

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 15

Case Study #1 – Calculating Company X’s
Market Opportunity in Brazil

260
240 2003-2020 CAGR = 3%
2003 represents an inflection
Index 1987 = 100

220 point for market growth

y
tu nit
200 r
ppo
O
s sed
180 Mi
160
140
120 2003-2020 CAGR = 1.6%

100
1999
2001

2007
2009

2019
1997

2003
2005

2011

2017
1995
1987
1989
1991
1993

2013
2015
Total Households Potential Customers

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Case Study # 2 -
Global Beverage Manufacturer

Global demand for alcohol will expand rapidly, as key emerging markets
mature. Growth in China and India’s middle class markets will lead the way.

1200
Billions of Nominal US$

2003-2020 CAGR = 6.5%

1000

800

600

400

200
2003-2020 CAGR = 4.4%
0
1998

2004
2006

2018
2020
1996

2000
2002

2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
1988
1990
1992
1994

Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages

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Case Study # 2 -
Global Beverage Manufacturer

 Developed detailed beverage Global Demand for Alcoholic Beverages Country X

forecasts by country using sales
volume data from Beverage 114
Marketing Corporation 112
 6 non-alcoholic beverage

Index 2002 = 100

110
categories
– carbonated soda, fruit drinks, 108
milk, tea drinks, coffee drinks 106
and bottled waters
104
 3 alcoholic beverage categories
– beer, wine and spirits 102
 Effects of substitution and 100
complementarities across 98
categories were incorporated 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Beer Wine Spirits

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Case Study # 3 -
Developing a Market Attractiveness Index

1. Identify key determinants of market attractiveness

2. Weight indicators based on their relative importance
3. Rank country and regional markets
4. Allocate sales and marketing resources

Note: Rank is from 1 (Best - top 10% of countries) to 10 (Worst - bottom 10% of countries). The lower the score,
the more attractive the country.

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 19

Global Consumer Markets

 Coverage

 Samples and Case Studies

 Deliverables

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 20

Deliverables & Pricing

 Microsoft Excel™ workbook format with tools for screening

and selection
 Semi-annual updates: Q1 and Q3
 Ongoing access to Global Insight’s consumer economists to
answer questions about the published outlook
 Custom Segmentation & Market Benchmarks – Priced on a
project basis

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Power of Global Perspective

 Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets Database

provides
 A comprehensive view of worldwide consumer market
activity
 A 10-year forecasts
 Consumer spending by 22 product categories
 Insight into socio-economic, demographic and household
income trends for 95 countries
 The strategic insight to identify and
compare business opportunities and
market risks critical for success

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 22