Human

Population
in billions
,9 Everv Ci9izen Sould Know Abou9 Our Pl,ne9
opyright 2011, The Wecskaop Proiect.
All rights reserved.
It is entirely Iree Ior non-commercial use by
scientists, students, and educators anywhere
in the world.
This presentation is a courtesy oI
%e ecsk,op Proiec9
BIRTHS INUS DEATHS
Each day there are approximately
births
382 000
During the same 24 hours there are
approximately
deaths
155 000 S
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www.census.gov
www.prb.org
www.esa.un.org/unpp
&pd,9es for 9ese numbers
,re ,ccessible ,9
Net Daily Increase
Notice that there are approximately
extra births
227 000
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Net Daily Increase
227 000
Notice that there are approximately
extra births each day
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Rate oI Increase
Notice that there are approximately
extra persons inhabiting our planet
08 000
ne Billion
At these rates oI growth,
we add approximately
extra people to our planet
every twelve to IiIteen years
.
between 1975 and 1987 we grew
from four billion 9o five billion
.
between 1987 and 1999 we grew
from five billion 9o six billion
and between 1999 and 2011 we grew
from six billion 9o seven billion
With still more billions
. numbers EIGHT and NINE .
on-track to arrive between now and 2041
,nd con9inuing on 9o
TEN 9o 15.8 billion bv 2100
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8, 9, ,nd 10 reflec9
U.N. edium-fer9ili9v es9im,9es
A graph based on the medium-
range U.N. estimates
looks like this
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Which means that we have added
FIVE ,ddi9ion,l billions in less
9,n , single um,n life9ime
Notice that, beginning in
1930 with a world population
oI TW billion,
we reached SEVEN
billion late in 2011
8, 9, ,nd 10 reflec9
U.N. edium-fer9ili9v es9im,9es
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VERY muc l,rger
than those medium-Iertility
proiections
World populations
in billions
8, 9,10, 11, 12, 13,
14, and 15.8 billion
reflec9 2011
U.N. ig-fer9ili9v
es9im,9es
And a graph based on the U.N.`s
high-Iertility estimates
shows numbers that are
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8, 9,10, 11, 12, 13,
14, and 15.8 billion
reflec9 2011
U.N. ig-fer9ili9v
es9im,9es
For, based on the newest U.N.
numbers, iI worldwide
Iertility-rates average
than the U.N.`s
'medium Iertility estimates
we could find ourselves
,nd our pl,ne9 e,ded 9ow,rd
15.8 BILLIN
bv cen9urvs end
Just child per
woman iger
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8, 9,10, 11, 12, 13,
14, and 15.8 billion
reflec9 2011
U.N. ig-fer9ili9v
es9im,9es
Imagine adding an
eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh,
twelIth, thirteenth, Iourteenth,
and IiIteenth billion
(.,nd 800 million
more ,f9er 9,9)
by the end oI this century
Three recent articles by
prominent demographers
have suggested that the
U.N.`s medium-range
proiections are
'too optimistic and that
the real-world numbers
that actually emerge
could be closer to
the 'high-end estimates
And, because earth`s planetary
Ior an industrialized humanity
is on the order oI two billion or less
the numbers we have iust seen constitute
that our species has ever undertaken
arrying apacity
the single most dangerous humanitarian,
biospheric, and civilizational risks
Which means that we need to pay
close attention to J-curves, and
carrying capacities,
and the truly
ENRUS
size of e,c of 9e billions
9,9 we ,ve men9ioned
How Big is a Billion?
Numeric Literacy
illion Billion
It is easy to think oI a
and a
as simply
very large numbers
enormously
But in reality, they are
diIIerent
ur examples can be adapted Ior advanced
audiences in academia by imagining writing and
publishing a billion pages oI peer-reviewed
papers Ior a iournal oI theoretical physics
Riddle Number ne
How long would it take to
complete one
homework questions
at a rate oI
100 6ues9ions per night.
Iive nights per week.
52 weeks per ve,r?
illion
Answer
It would take
to Iinish such an assignment
38
and
1/2
years
Riddle Number Two
ow long would i9 9,ke 9o
comple9e one
homework questions
working ,9 9e s,me r,9e?
Billion
Answer
To complete one billion such
questions would require
38,461 years
This means that iI a student
began working on this assignment
20,000 years ago
When was
one-mile thick over
hio,
ichigan,
Wisconsin
and
ice
When
and
. still roamed the earth .
Wooly mammoths
Saber-toothed tigers
and e,c and every homework question
was conscien9iouslv comple9ed
20,000
years
. Irom 9en until now .
Ior all
the student would have to con9inue
working on their homework
in9o 9e fu9ure
in order to Iinish their assignment
Ior ,no9er
18,461 years
That is how many
people we ,re ,dding 9o our pl,ne9
every
twelve to IiIteen
years
additional
No wonder earth`s biological and
environmental machinery is breaking
Notice that a billion is an
number
enormous
Such enormous numbers
have important
humanitarian, biospheric,
and civilizational implications
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While our populations would remain stable
iI births and deaths were equal
,ddi9ion people 9o our pl,ne9
everv 9welve 9o fif9een ve,rs
at today`s rates we add
ne Billion
We must provide
Food
Health care
Housing
Roads
Education
Employment
Every 12-15 years
Drinking water
Sanitation
,nd , os9 of
ther necessities
And this is without yet raising issues oI
all the environmental damage that we inIlict
681,000
additional people
bv 9is s,me 9ime on ond,v
Earth will be home to
iI today is Friday
HopeIully, someone, somewhere
is planning to grow
a T oI extra Iood over the weekend
908,000
additional people
bv 9is s,me 9ime on Frid,v
Earth will be home to
iI today is onday
Necessitating completion
oI more than
36,320
,ddi9ion,l cl,ssrooms
by this same time on Friday
What iI not enough iobs are available?
What iI not enough schools and
classrooms are built?
What iI no Iuel wood or electricity is available?
What iI young people ages 15-30 have
little schooling, no skills, and no iobs?
ther Implications
It took about one-undred ve,rs
(1850 to 1950) Ior the populations oI the
U.S. and Europe to approximately double
Today, many oI the world`s poorest and
least-developed countries are
doubling 9eir populations
Every 30 years
And some have QUADRUPLED their
populations in less than IiIty years
Even a ric country would Iind it
nearly impossible to DUBLE all oI its
schools,
services,
health care, and
inIrastructure
in a span oI two or three decades
II the world`s poorest nations were
working wi9 s9,ble popul,9ions.
their chances oI
improving health care, education,
inIrastructure, and standards oI living
would be greatly enhanced
The Big Picture?
Human
Population
in billions
This
graph is based.
on U.N
ig-fer9ili9v
proiec9ions
This
graph is based
on U.N.
medium-
fer9ili9v
proiec9ions
(1) Recall that a billion is a
VERY large number
(2) This is how much
we are growing
7
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Notice that
iust since 1930 we
have added five
billion
additional persons
to our planet
in less 9,n one
um,n life9ime
Ior us to reach
TW
billion
It took
,ll of
um,n is9orv
until 1930
Human
Population
in billions
Suddenlv. owever
Two billion
grew to three billion
Three billion
grew to Iour billion
Four billion
grew to Iive billion
Five billion
grew to six billion
And six billion
grew to seven billion
And now the most recent
U.N. proiections show us
headed toward
ten, eleven, twelve,
thirteen, Iourteen, or
IiIteen billion (plus 800
million more ,f9er 9,9)
bv 9e end
of 9is cen9urv
o o9er gener,9ions
in human history
have ever
lived their lives
in such a
demographic tidal
wave
Human
Population
in billions
It is hard to avoid
noticing a
pronounced
J-curve shape in a
graph oI human
population growth
See our ,ddend,
concerning 9e
signific,nce of 9is
In the past we have
always been able to
count on the
Iunctioning oI the
earth`s biospheric
machinery
as a 'given
Today, however, our
population has already
become so large,
and continues to
grow larger so rapidly
that such
presumptions
are no longer
warranted
Human
Population
in billions
To scientists and
mathematicians:
It is diIIicult not to
notice the
LATE-PHASE EXPNENTIAL
look oI these graphs,
isn`t it?
Addenda
Both oI these images
depict a
characteristic graph
called a
J-curve
which is produced by
powerIul, deceptive
numbers in an
exponential progression
Also notice that,
like a J-curve, we are
rocketing straight upward
along the y-axis
oI this graph
J-curve graph
For instance, a sequence such as
1.2.4.8.16.32.64 etc.
produce a J-curve when graphed
And so will a sequence such as
1.3.9.27.81.243.etc.
Notice that in each case, the
numbers are growing larger by
repeated multiplications by like
amounts
Notice that our own
graph embodies a
nearly-identical shape
J-curve
J-curve
&nfor9un,9elv. ,9omic
9es9s ,9 Al,mogordo.
ew exico in 9e 1940s
sowed our species
6ui9e dr,m,9ic,llv
Some would attribute the destruction to the physics oI nuclear Iission. In ,no9er sense.
owever. i9 w,s 9e exponen9i,l n,9ure of 9e fission even9s that resulted in calamity
w,9 J-curves c,n do
J-curve
This has been presentation one
in our set oI Iive
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O9er presen9,9ions in 9is
collec9ion ,re ,ccessible ,9
,9 Everv Ci9izen Sould Know Abou9 Our Pl,ne9
opyright 2011, The Wecskaop Proiect.
All rights reserved.
It is entirely Iree Ior non-commercial use by
scientists, students, and educators anywhere
in the world.
This presentation is a courtesy oI
%e ecsk,op Proiec9
4rld
P45:lati4n
and
Dem4ra5ics
An Introductory
verview
Presen9,9ion 1
Human
Population
in billions