09 - Population Growth Resources

Engineering & Society:
Population Growth & Resources
Dr. Gershon Weltman

Engineering 183EW, UCLA SEAS
Lecture 9
Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Todays Headlines
Humans Are Recent Arrivals
Universe
Earth
Bacteria
Multicell Biota
Human Beings
1 Billion People
- 6B Years
- 4.5B Years
- 2.5B Years
- 600M Years
~ 2M Years
~ 200 years
A Million Years of Human Growth
A Closer Look
6 Billion
Last 12,000 Years
-10,000
200 Million
2000
1 Billion
4
Three Growth Eras2

3
6B
Population Growth Factors
Agriculture
Urbanization
Shelter and Transport

Water and Energy
Sanitation & Health Services
Industrialization
Animal Domestication
Intensive Crop Production
Distribution of food, goods and medical products

Worldwide Economic Growth
Increased Family Resources
Medicine
Medical: Cleanliness, Infection Prevention,

Hospitalization: Isolation of illness
Nutrition: Fertility, Individual Health
Longevity: Infant Survival, More child-bearing years
Dramatic Effect of Industrialization

Per Capita Gross Product
$6,000
$5,000
Industrial Surge
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
Malthusian Trap
$1,000
0
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
2000
The Industrial
Revolution
After William Rosen The Most Powerful Idea in the World, Random House, New York, 2010
UN Fertility Trends (2004)
Fertility rate is
average number of
childbirths per
woman
Above 2.1 is growth,
below 2.1 is decline
Developed nations
at 0 or minus
growth
Developing nations
also dropping but
still positive
Education and
greater affluence
contribute to drop
We are Here
Interrelationships are Complex5
9.5B
Assumptions
Resources = 1990x2
Consumption = 1990
2040
UN Population Projections (2004)
Higher fertility
Nominal Projections
8.9B at 2050
9.2B peak at 2075
Broad Projection Range

5.5B to 14.0B by 2100
2.3B to 36.4B by 2300
We appear to be in high
range of 2050 estimates
Long term projections

depend on many not fully
known factors
Much uncertainty exists,

both in 21st century and in
following centuries
Projected fertility
Lower fertility
We are Here
10
Example Resource Consumption
Consumption is:
High
Getting higher
Increasing faster
than population
Water Consumption Worldwide
11
Present Water Resources Are Limited8

Water availability:
33% is base flow
23% is accessible
10% is remote
67% is flood runoff

We are near limits of
presently accessible
resources
Need to use
Water from more

remote areas
Flood runoff resource
Other sources, e.g.
ocean desalinization
and local reclamation
12
LA Aqueduct: 100 Year Anniversary
13
Present Land Resources Are Also Limited 7

Land resources:
Are insufficient at
present yields
Sufficiency means:
More land under

cultivation
At least double present
yields
Land is acquired by
deforestation and/or
improved irrigation
Yields can be increased
by biotechnology but
possibly at a cost
14
Energy Consumption in 20th Century9
Steeper increase
last 50 years
Mostly from increased
use of hydrocarbons
Influenced by:
Development
Climate
Affluence
Primary resources
mainly non-renewable
15
Predicted Energy Consumption
16
Varying Predictions of Oil Depletion

We are Here
2000
2050
2100
17
Predicted Oil Prices
18
Energy Technology Evolves10

Cars replaced horses as
technology created new
transportation needs
19
Horses to Cars Example
20
Energy Technology Evolves

Cars replaced horses as
technology created new
transportation needs
Energy forms have

changed constantly to
match societys
changing needs and the
availability of natural
resources
21
Potential for World Energy Evolution

Source
1980
1990
2000
Petroleum
133
136
155
Natural Gas
54
75
62%
91
Coal
73
92
91
Hydraulic
18
22
Nuclear
20
27
6.8%
25
6.3%
Alternative Electrical (Solar,

wind, geothermal, wood, etc.
0.5
1.7
2.9
Alternative Non-Electrical
(Ethanol, etc)
2.5
2.2
1.3%
2.3
289
351
396
Total
85%
Quadrillion (1015) Btu, International Energy Annual, www.eia.doe.gov
22
Emerging Alternative Technologies
Windmills Farm, Altamont Pass, Livermore, California

Dan Chusid 2009 Worldwide
Boeing Spectrolab Solar Concentrator Cells

www.defenseindustrydaily.com
ItItisisdifficult
difficultfor
foralternative
alternativeenergy
energytotomake
make
headway
headwaywhile
whileoil
oiland
andgas
gasare
arestill
stillcheap,
cheap,but
but
forward
forwardthinking
thinkingcountries
countriesare
arestarting
startingtotoconvert
convert
23
Oil & Gas Prices Historically Oscillate

Recent Peak
$100
$50
$0
1950
1980
2000
People Panic
24
but Gas Remains a Relative Bargain

8
7 CA Minimum Wage ($)
6
Gas = $1.70/gal
MW = $5.10/hr
Gas = 20 min/gal
Gas = $3.60/gal
MW = $8.00/hr
Gas = 27 min/gal
5
4
Gas = $0.25/gal
3MW = $0.75/hr
Gas = 20 min/gal
But x2-3 Mileage

1950 ~2-3 min/mile
2013 <1 min/mile
2
1
0
1935
1950
1965
1980
1 9 9 5 2000
2013
Gas
Gasremains
remainsthe
thelow
lowcost
costalternative
alternativedespite
despiteincreasing
increasingoil
oilprices
prices
25
and Coal Remains a Prime Contender
l)
)
Lots of Coal But coal is heavy polluter

Need better coal and alternative energy forms
26
Resource Overview
Energy
Consumption is increasing
Conventional resources are decreasing
Water
Overall use: 6x in 100 years (vs. 2x population growth)

Agriculture: Uses 70% of total
Human consumption: Inadequate drinking supplies
40% of world faces drinking water shortages

1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water
2.2 million die annually from contaminated water
Food
Developing countries: 2100 to 2700 cal/day

Industrial countries: 3000 to 3400 cal/day
Capacity to produce is nearing limits
27
Resource Impact is Disproportionate 11
Impact = PAT
84.7
Population
Affluence
Technology
United States
% of global income
5% population
25% impact
New Players
China
India
Japan
South Korea
Brazil
Argentina
Others
1.4
Poorest20%
Poorest20%
Richest20%
28
Energy Consumption is Disproportionate
Table from http://www.geographylwc.org.uk

29
Income Distribution is Skewed
~20%
~20%of
ofthe
the
world
world
isispoor
poor
~60%
~60%of
ofthe
the
world
world
isismiddle
middleclass
class
~20%
~20%of
ofthe
theworld
world
isisconsumer
consumerclass
class
$1K $8K
$50K
$75K
The
Thestated
statedgoal
goalofofmost
mosteconomic
economicprograms
programsisistoward
towardgreater
greateraffluence
affluence
Table from B.D. Skinner, The Gumption Memo, www.gumption.org
30
but Income Distribution is Changing
Columbia
ColumbiaUniversity
Universityeconomist
economistXavier
XavierSala-i-Martin
Sala-i-Martinreports
reportsthat
thatworld
world
1
and
andcountry
countryincomes
incomesare
arerising
risingand
andless
lesspeople
peopleare
areliving
livingininpoverty
poverty.1.
Xavier Sala-i-Martin, The World Distribution of Income, Columbia U. Paper, October 9, 2005
31
The Cost of Affluence: Water Example

1 lb Grain
1 Hamburger
450
liters
6,200
liters
1 Steak
For approximately the

same caloric value!
12,400
liters
32
Cars are Important Consumers of Resources
Transport % of Energy
USA = 90%
Europe = 80%
Japan = 60%
Total Number of Cars
World = 20%
US = 30%-35%
Cars % of Transport
900,000,000
2000 = ~450 Million

2030 = ~1000 Million
1930
1930
1950
2000
2030
Developing world is the key area of concern

For equal % of overall energy
2030 = 3x Efficiency (60 mpg)

2100 = 20x Efficiency (400 mpg)
33
Car Trends: Becoming more Rational?

Mercedes Smart Car
GMC Yukon
~ 6000 lb
~ 15 mpg
~ $45,000
Toyota Prius
~ 2800 lb
~ 55 mpg
~ $21,000
BMW Mini
34
The Answer: High Technology?
General
GeneralMotors
MotorsChevrolet
ChevroletVolt
VoltPlug-In.
Plug-In.Electric
Electricvehicles
vehiclesmay
mayreduce
reducelocal
local
emissions,
emissions,but
butoverall
overallresource
resourcesaving
savingdepends
dependson
onnew
newenergy
energysources
sources
35
But We Sometimes Forget

Generated by dirty plants, and
delivered by an inefficient grid
Clean, Efficient Power
36
Odd Technology?
An air-powered car? It may be available sooner

than you think at a price tag that will hardly be a
budget buster. The vehicle may not run like a
speed racer on back road highways, but developer
Zero Pollution Motors is betting consumers will
be willing to fork over $20,000 for a vehicle that
can motor around all day on nothing but air and a
splash of salad oil, alcohol or possibly a pint of
gasoline. The air car can tool along at a top speed
of 35 mph for some 60 miles or so on a tank of
compressed air, a sufficient distance for 80% of
consumers to commute to work and back and
complete daily chores. On highways, the CAV can
cruise at interstate speeds for nearly 800 miles
with a small motor that compresses outside air to
keep the tank filled. The motor isn't finicky about
fuel. It will burn gasoline or diesel as well as
biodiesel, ethanol or vegetable oil. This car leaves
the highest-mpg vehicles you can buy right now
in the dust. Even if it used only regular gasoline,
the air car would average 106 mpg, more than
double today's fuel sipping champ, the Toyota
Prius.
Jim Ostroff, Thursday, October 30, 2008 provided by Kiplinger

37
Back to the Future?
Citroen 2CV; 60+ mpg, 1948 - 1988
Vespa Motor Scooter, 75+ mpg, 1946 - ?
38
Even Further Back?
39
More Futuristic?
Electrobike Pi, 20 mph, ~30 miles/charge, ~ $8,000

40
Resource Impact is Earthwide
Ecological Footprints
USA
= 12.4 acres/person
3rd World = 1.2 acres/person
To extend todays USA footprint to everyone

would require 3 to 4 planet Earths
But Earths essential ecology is under siege

Increasing population
Increasing affluence
Increasing needs and wants
41
Lessons of the Tragedy of the Commons*
A commons is a resource not individually owned, but one that is

available for use by all
Adam Smiths theory that a free market yields optimizing behavior

requires strong prior agreement on ethical behavior for the common
good by Adam Smiths own account
In the absence of such agreement, Governments, organizations and

people seemingly act in ways that endanger or destroy the
commons unless they are otherwise motivated or regulated
The Gulf of Mexico is an example: Companies exploit oil resources

without regard for the ultimate effect on other common resources -until almost inevitable disaster forces reconsideration of strategies
*Garrett Hardin, The Tragedy of the Commons, Science, 162(3859), Dec. 13, 1968
42
Our Commons Today
Image courtesy Malin Space Science Systems, 2004

43
Commons Components in Danger
Non-renewable resources:
Fossil fuels
Mineral ores
Topsoil
Water: Pollution including ground aquifers
Forests: Wood and oxygen production
Atmosphere: Pollution and climate change
Oceans and coral reefs: Food, sea-life & beauty
Wilderness: Refuges, wetlands & scenery
Species: Biodiversity and biological resources
44
An Emerging Ecological Ethic
New System Concepts
New Views of Nature
Ecosystem as a whole
Finite limits on non-renewable resources
Ecological stability is highly desirable
Ecological sustainability is essential
Holistic & interdependent vs. dualistic and mechanistic
Influenced by science Darwin, DNA, biology, etc.
And by religion Stewardship, the sacredness of nature
Biocentric Ethical Philosophy
Rights and welfare of whole biotic community

Long term duties to future generations
45
The Uses of Technology
Understanding what is happening
Sensors, data processing

Computer models, simulations, prediction
Communication, publication.
Developing alternative technologies to mitigate and

eliminate dangers
Energy
Water
Food
Transportation
Health Care
Etc.
46
The Roles (and Duties) of Engineers
Analysis
Innovation and Development
Measuring and analyzing current situation

Predicting future conditions
Establishing technical requirements
Creating new strategies for a sustainable environment
Improving current technologies
Developing totally new paradigms
Communication
To policy makers
To the non-technical public
47
But Remember
Its tough to make

predictions, especially
about the future.
Yogi Berra
New York Yankees
Baseball Legend
48
Some Previous Misguided Predictions

Everything that can
be invented has
been invented
Charles Duell, US
Patent Office, 1899
Sensible and responsible women

do not want to
vote - Grover
Cleveland, 1905
Heavier than air
flying machines
are impossible Lord Kelvin,
President, Royal
Society, 1895
49
Some Previous Misguided Predictions
Who the hell wants

to hear actors talk?
Harry Warner, 1927
There is no likelihood man can ever

tap the power of
the atom - Robert
Millikan, 1923
Ruth made a big

mistake when he
gave up pitching
- Tris Speaker,
1921
50
Summary
Major increases are occurring in the worlds

population and in peoples economic aspirations
As a result, there are significant stresses on our

common resources, environment and ecology
Technology and engineering are central -to creating these problems and to solving them
The next 20 to 50 years will be critical
Predicting future outcomes is very difficult
both
51
References
1. Cohen, Joel, How Many People Can The Earth Support?, W. W. Norton & Co., New York,
1995, p79-82.
2. Kates, Robert, Population, technology, and the human environment: A thread through time,
Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, J Ausubel and H.D.Langford, Eds.,
National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, page 38 (concept credited to Deevey, E.,
The human population, Scientific American, 203, no.9 (September) 1960, pages 194-204.)
3. Cohen, op. cit., p139.
4. Kates, op cit., p50-51.
5. Meadows, Donella H.. et al, Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green Publishing Co., White River
Junction, Vermont, 1992, p128-140.
6. Meadows, op. cit., p7.
52
References (Continued)
7. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p51.
8. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p55.
9. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p67-8.
10. Ausubel, J, and H.D.Langford, Eds., Technological Trajectories and the Human
Environment, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, p21 and 86
11. Cohen, op. cit., p52.
12. Wilson, Edward O., Foreword to 1999 edition, The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co.,
New York, 1992.
13. Wilson, E.O.,The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992.
14..Meadows, op. cit, p92-96.
15. National Research Council, Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change,
National Academy Press, Washington D.C., 2000
16. Dunn, Seth, Decarbonizing the energy economy in Brown, Lester et al, State of the
World,W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 2001, page 85
1e Energy-Environment Nexus, The Bridge, NAE, Vol. 32, No.2
18. Barbour, Ian, Ethics in an Age of Technology, Harper Collins, 1993 p57-89, 179- 89
19. Cerf, Christopher, and Victor Navansky, The Experts Speak, Pantheon Books, New York,
1984, revised 2000
53

09 - Population Growth Resources

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Engineering & Society:

Population Growth & Resources

Dr. Gershon Weltman

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Humans Are Recent Arrivals

A Million Years of Human Growth

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Last 12,000 Years

Three Growth Eras2

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Population Growth Factors

Shelter and Transport

Distribution of food, goods and medical products

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Medical: Cleanliness, Infection Prevention,

Dramatic Effect of Industrialization

UN Fertility Trends (2004)

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Interrelationships are Complex5

UN Population Projections (2004)

Broad Projection Range

Long term projections

Much uncertainty exists,

Example Resource Consumption

Water Consumption Worldwide

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Present Water Resources Are Limited8

33% is base flow

67% is flood runoff

Water from more

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

LA Aqueduct: 100 Year Anniversary

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Present Land Resources Are Also Limited 7

More land under

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Energy Consumption in 20th Century9

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Predicted Energy Consumption

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Varying Predictions of Oil Depletion

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Predicted Oil Prices

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Energy Technology Evolves10

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Horses to Cars Example

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Energy Technology Evolves

Energy forms have

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Potential for World Energy Evolution

Alternative Electrical (Solar,

Quadrillion (1015) Btu, International Energy Annual, www.eia.doe.gov

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Emerging Alternative Technologies

Windmills Farm, Altamont Pass, Livermore, California

Boeing Spectrolab Solar Concentrator Cells

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Oil & Gas Prices Historically Oscillate

but Gas Remains a Relative Bargain

But x2-3 Mileage

and Coal Remains a Prime Contender