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Slides Prepared by

JOHN S. LOUCKS
St. Edwards University

2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning

Chapter 12
Tests of Goodness of Fit and
Independence

Goodness of Fit Test: A Multinomial Population


Tests of Independence: Contingency Tables
Goodness of Fit Test: Poisson and Normal
Distributions

Goodness of Fit Test:


A Multinomial Population
1. Set up the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Select a random sample and record the
observed
frequency, fi , for each of the k categories.
3. Assuming H0 is true, compute the expected
frequency, ei , in each category by multiplying
the category probability by the sample size.
continued

Goodness of Fit Test:


A Multinomial Population
4. Compute the value of the test statistic.
22
(
f

e
)
22 ii ii
eii
ii11
kk

5. Reject H0 if 2 2
(where is the significance level and there
are k - 1 degrees of freedom).

Example: Finger Lakes Homes (A)


Multinomial Distribution Goodness of Fit Test
Finger Lakes Homes manufactures four models
of
prefabricated homes, a two-story colonial, a
ranch, a
split-level, and an A-frame. To help in production
planning, management would like to determine if
previous customer purchases indicate that there
is a
preference in the style selected.

Example: Finger Lakes Homes (A)


Multinomial

Distribution Goodness of Fit

Test
The number of homes sold of each model
for 100
sales over the past two years is shown
below.
Model Colonial
Frame
# Sold
30
15

Ranch
20

Split-Level A35

Example: Finger Lakes Homes (A)

Multinomial Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Notation
pC = popul. proportion that purchase a
colonial
pR = popul. proportion that purchase a
ranch
pS = popul. proportion that purchase a splitlevel
pA = popul. proportion that purchase an Aframe

Hypotheses
H0: pC = pR = pS = pA = .25
H : The population proportions are not

Example: Finger Lakes Homes (A)

Multinomial Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Expected Frequencies
e1 = .25(100) = 25
e2 = .25(100) =
25
e3 = .25(100) = 25
e4 = .25(100) =
25
2
2
2
2
(
30

25
)
(
20

25
)
(
35

25
)
(
15

25
)
2

Test Statistic
25
25
25
25

=1+1+4+4
= 10
8

Example: Finger Lakes Homes (A)

Multinomial Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Rejection Rule
With = .05 and
k-1=4-1=3
degrees of freedom

Do Not Reject H0

Reject H0
7.81

Example: Finger Lakes Homes (A)

Multinomial Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Conclusion
2 = 10 > 7.81, so we reject the assumption
there is
no home style preference, at the .05 level
of
significance.

10

Test of Independence: Contingency Tables


1. Set up the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Select a random sample and record the
observed
frequency, fij , for each cell of the contingency
table.
(Row
i Total )(Column
j Total e
) ij , for each
3. Compute
the
expected
frequency,
eij
Sample Size
cell.

11

Test of Independence: Contingency Tables


4. Compute the test statistic.

2
i

( f ij eij ) 2
eij

5. Reject H0 if
(where is the
2 2
significance level and with n rows and m
columns there are
(n - 1)(m - 1) degrees of freedom).

12

Example: Finger Lakes Homes (B)

Contingency Table (Independence) Test


Each home sold can be classified according
to price and to style. Finger Lakes Homes
manager would like to determine if the price of
the home and the style of the home are
independent variables.
The number of homes sold for each model
and price for the past two years is shown
below. For convenience, the price of the home
is listed as either $65,000 or less or more than
$65,000.
Price
Colonial
A-Frame
< $65,000
18
12

Ranch
6

Split-Level
19
13

Example: Finger Lakes Homes (B)

Contingency Table (Independence) Test


Hypotheses
H0: Price of the home is independent of the
style
of the home that is purchased
Ha: Price of the home is not independent of
the
style of the home that is purchased
Expected Frequencies

Price Colonial Ranch Split-Level A-Frame


Total
< $99K
18
6
19
12
55
> $99K
12
14
16
14

Example: Finger Lakes Homes (B)

Contingency Table (Independence) Test


Test Statistic
2
2
2
(
18

16
.
5
)
(
6

11
)
(
3

6
.
75
)
2

...
16. 5
11
6. 75
= .1364 + 2.2727 + . . . + 2.0833 =
9.1486
Rejection Rule
.205 7. 81
With = .05 and (2 - 1)(4 - 1) = 3 d.f.,
Reject H0 if 2 > 7.81

Conclusion
We reject H0, the assumption that the price
of the
home is independent of the style of
the home
that is purchased.

15

Goodness of Fit Test: Poisson Distribution


1. Set up the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Select a random sample and
a. Record the observed frequency, fi , for each
of the
k values of the Poisson random variable.
b. Compute the mean number of occurrences,
.
3. Compute the expected frequency of
occurrences, ei , for each value of the Poisson
random variable.
continued
16

Goodness of Fit Test: Poisson Distribution


4. Compute the value of the test statistic.
2
(
f

e
)
2 i i
ei
i 1
k

5. Reject H0 if
2 2
(where is the significance level
are k - 2 degrees of freedom).

and there

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Example: Troy Parking Garage

Poisson Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


In studying the need for an additional
entrance to a city parking garage, a consultant
has recommended an approach that is
applicable only in situations where the number
of cars entering during a specified time period
follows a Poisson distribution.

18

Example: Troy Parking Garage

Poisson Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


A random sample of 100 one-minute time
intervals resulted in the customer arrivals
listed below. A statistical test must be
conducted to see if the assumption of a
Poisson distribution is reasonable.

# Arrivals 0
10 11 12
Frequency 0
6 3
1

4 10 14 20 12 12 9

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Example: Troy Parking Garage

Poisson Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Hypotheses
H0: Number of cars entering the garage
during
a one-minute interval is Poisson
distributed.
Ha: Number of cars entering the garage
during a
one-minute interval is not
Poisson distributed

20

Example: Troy Parking Garage

Poisson Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Estimate of Poisson Probability Function
otal Arrivals = 0(0) + 1(1) + 2(4) + . . . +
12(1) = 600
Total Time Periods = 100
Estimate of = 600/100 = 6

6 x e 6
f ( x)
x!
Hence,

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Example: Troy Parking Garage

Poisson Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Expected Frequencies
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6

f (x )

xf (x )

f (x )

xf (x )

.0025 .25 7 .1389 13.89


.0149 1.49 8 .1041 10.41
.0446 4.46 9 .0694 6.94
.0892 8.92 10 .0417 4.17
.1339 13.39 11 .0227 2.27
.1620 16.20 12 .0155 1.55
.1606 16.06 Total 1.0000 100.00

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Example: Troy Parking Garage

Poisson Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Observed and Expected Frequencies
i
- ei

fi

ei

fi

0 or 1 or 25 6.20 -1.20
3 10 8.92 1.08
4 14 13.39 .61
5 20 16.20 3.80
6 12 16.06 -4.06
7 12 13.89 -1.89
8 9 10.41 -1.41
9 8 6.94 1.06
10 or more10 7.99 2.01
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Example: Troy Parking Garage

Poisson Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Test Statistic

2
2
2
(

1
.
20
)
(
1
.
08
)
(
2
.
01
)
2

...
3. 42
6. 20
8. 92
7. 99

Rejection Rule
With = .05 and k - p - 1 = 9 - 1 - 1 = 7 d.f.
(where k = number of categories and p =
number of population .2parameters
05 14. 07
estimated),
Reject H0 if 2 > 14.07

Conclusion
We cannot reject H0. Theres no reason to
doubtthe assumption of a Poisson distribution.
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Goodness of Fit Test: Normal Distribution


1. Set up the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Select a random sample and
a. Compute the mean and standard deviation.
b. Define intervals of values so that the
expected
frequency is at least 5 for each interval.
c. For each interval record the observed
frequencies
3. Compute the expected frequency, ei , for each
interval.
continued
25

Goodness of Fit Test: Normal Distribution


4. Compute the value of the test statistic.
2
(
f

e
)
2 i i
ei
i 1
k

5. Reject H0 if 2 2
(where is the significance level
and there are k - 3 degrees of freedom).

26

Example: Victor Computers

Normal Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Victor Computers manufactures and sells a
general purpose microcomputer. As part of a
study to evaluate sales personnel,
management wants to determine if the annual
sales volume (number of units sold by a
salesperson) follows a normal probability
distribution.

27

Example: Victor Computers

Normal Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


A simple random sample of 30 of the
salespeople was taken and their numbers of
units sold are below.
33
64
64
75
83
105

43

44

45

52

52

56

58

63

65

66

68

70

72

73

73

74

84

85

86

91

92

94

98 102

(mean = 71, standard deviation = 18.54)

28

Example: Victor Computers

Normal Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Hypotheses
H0: The population of number of units
sold
has a normal distribution with
mean 71
and standard deviation
18.54.
Ha: The population of number of units
sold
does not have a normal
distribution with
mean 71 and standard
deviation 18.54.

29

Example: Victor Computers

Normal Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Interval Definition
To satisfy the requirement of an expected
frequency of at least 5 in each interval we
will divide the normal distribution into 30/5
=6
equal probability intervals.

30

Example: Victor Computers

Normal Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Interval Definition

Areas
= 1.00/6
= .1667

53.02 71 88.98 = 71 + .97(18.54)


63.03 78.97
31

Example: Victor Computers

Normal Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Observed and Expected Frequencies
i

fi

ei

fi - ei
Less than 53.02 6 5 1
53.02 to 63.03 3 5 -2
63.03 to 71.00 6 5 1
71.00 to 78.97 5 5 0
78.97 to 88.98 4 5 -1
More than 88.98 6 5 1
Total 30 30
32

Example: Victor Computers

Normal Distribution Goodness of Fit Test


Test Statistic
2
2
2
2
2
2
(
1
)
(

2
)
(
1
)
(
0
)
(

1
)
(
1
)
2

1. 60
5
5
5
5
5
5
Rejection Rule
With = .05 and k - p - 1 = 6 - 2 - 1 = 3
d.f., 2 7. 81
.05
Reject H0 if 2 > 7.81

Conclusion
We cannot reject H0. There is little evidence

to
support rejecting the assumption the
population is normally distributed with = 71
33
and = 18.54.

End of Chapter 12

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