Demography as Destiny:

Latino Population Growth,

Dispersion, Diversity and the
Future of American Life
 Latino Population (in Millions) 1950 to 2050

120
98.2
100
82.7
80 68.2
55.2
60
43.7
35.3
40
22.4
14.6
20 9.1
2.3 3.5
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: Census Bureau. Projections of the Resident Population by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin 1999-2100. Issued
January 13, 2001
 Impact of Latino Population Increases in
Nation’s 5 Largest States

Total Increase % Latino Increase % % Latino Share

of Growth
1. California 4,111,627 14 3,278,618 43 80
2. New York 986,002 6 653,557 30 66
3. Texas 3,865,310 23 2,329,761 54 60
4. Florida 3,044,452 24 1,108,572 70 36
5. Illinois 988,691 9 625,816 70 63

12,996,082 15 7,996,324 53 62

Source: 2000 Census

 Racial and Ethnic Change in the Nation's
100 Largest Cities: 1990-2000

4.7
3.8
5,000,000
4,000,000 Asian/Pacific Islander
3,000,000 1.0 .82 Blacks
2,000,000
1,000,000 Non-Hispanic White
0 Hispanics
-1,000,000 Total
-2,000,000
-3,000,000 -2.3
 Whites Became a Minority in the
Nation's Top 100 Cities Between
1990 and 2000
American Multiracial
Indian/Alaska Native 2%
1%
Asian/Pacific Islander Other
7% 0%

Hispanic White
23% 43%

Black
24%

Source: Brooking Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy

 Minority Population in the 10 Largest
Cities in the United States

Total % % % % %
City Population Anglo Black Asian Hispanic Minority
1. New York 8,008,278 35 27 10 27 65
2. Los Angeles 3,964,820 30 11 10 47 70
3. Chicago 2,896,016 31 37 4 26 69
4. Houston 1,953,631 31 25 5 37 69
5. Philadelphia 1,517,550 43 43 5 9 57
6. Phoenix 1,321,045 56 5 2 34 44
7. San Diego 1,223,400 49 8 14 25 51
8. Dallas 1,188,580 35 26 3 36 65
9. San Antonio 1,144,646 32 7 2 59 78
10. Detroit 951,270 11 82 1 5 89

Source: Census
 Latino Population Growth by Type

Increase Percent Percent Share of Total

Group 1990-2000 Increase Latino Populatio Growth
All Latinos 12,959,759 58 100
Mexican 7,144,773 53 55
Other Latino 4,696,797 103 36
Puerto Rican 678,424 25 5
Dominican 234,012 44 2
Cuban 197,753 19 2
Source: US Census Bureau. Census 2000 Summary File Tabulated by the Inter-university Program for Latinos.
 Latino Group Prevalence

Mexican Origin Over 50%

Puerto Rican Origin Over 50%
Melting Pot: No
Latino Group over
50% of Total Latino
Population
 Latino Foreign Born Population
1970 - 2000 (in Millions)

25
20
14.5
15
7.8
10
4.1
1.8
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: Census Bureau

 Latino Foreign Born and Native
Populations by Generation
50%
39%
40% 32%
29%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Immigrant 1st Generation 2nd Generation
 Top Countries of Birth of the Foreign Born
from Latin America:
1990 and 2000 (in Millions)

7,841
Mexico
4,298
765
El Salvador 465
Dominican 2000
692
Republic 348
1990
Cuba 952
737

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Profile of the Foreign Born

Population in the U.S. 20000

U.S. Population 2000
4%
1%
12%
Non-Latino White
13% Latino
70% Black
American Indian
Asian/Pacific Islander
U.S. Projected Population 2050

9%
1%
Non-Latino White
13%
Latino
53% Black
American Indian
24%
Asian/Pacific Islander
U.S. Projected Population 2100
13%
40% Non-Latino White
1%
Latino
13%
Black

American Indian
33%
Asian/Pacific Islander
The 2000 Latino Vote:
Issue Driven and
Ideologically Coherent
 Most Important Consideration
in Voting for President: Latino Voters

All
Latino
Voters Gore Bush Nader
My Candidate’s
Position on the Issues 57% 60% 51% 77%

My Candidate’s Leadership
and Personal Qualities 36% 33% 43% 15%
 Role of Government
Which comes closer to your view?

All
Latino
Voters Gore Bush
Government should do more
to solve problems 60% 73% 40%

Government is doing too many

things better left to business
and individuals 36% 21% 58%
Naturalized Citizens
Voting Patterns
 Percent of Voting
for Latino Voting Age Population
1996 and 1998

60
Native Born
52.3
Naturalized Citizen
50 42.2
37.4
31.4
40

30

20

10

0
1996 1998
Source: Census Bureau, Registration and Voting, November 1996
 Latino Party Identification

60% 52% Foreign-Born

37%
50% Native-Born

40%

30% 23% 21%

20%
13% 14%
20% 8%

10%

0%
Democrats Republicans Independent No Preference

Source: Public Broadcasting Latino Poll 2000

 Party in Congress
Better for Latinos
80% Foreign-Born
59%
70%
44% Native-Born
60%
50%
40% 27%
22%
30% 19%
11%
20% 8% 6%
10%
0%
Democrats Republicans Either Party Don't Know

Source: Public Broadcasting Latino Poll 2000

Voting Patterns Among Latino Naturalized
Citizens in Texas
President
69%
80% 66% 71% US Senate
53%
70%
Congressional
60% 46%
50% Party ID
33% 31%
40%
24%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Democrat Republican
Voting Patterns Among Latino Naturalized
Citizens in California

90% 80% 82% President

77%
80%
Congressional
70%
60%
Party ID
50%
40%
30%
18%
17%
20% 11%
10%
0%
Democrat Republican
Latino Young Adult
Voting Behavior
 Registration and Voting in the
November 1998 General Election by
Race and Ethnicity
18-24 years

Percent of Citizen Voting Age Population

Registered %
To Vote Voted
Non-Hispanic White 46 20
Black 41 17
Latino 36 15
Asian 31 17
 Latino Registration and Voting Age:
November 1998
Percent of Latino Citizen Voting Age Population Registered to
Vote and Voting in November 1998 General Election

% %
Registered Voted
All Latinos 55 33
18-24 yrs 36 15
25-44 55 29
45-64 64 44
65-74 73 55
75 yrs + 68 50
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Registration and Voting: November 1988
 Party ID
18 - 24 yrs by Race
0%
Something else
7%
7%
10%

18%
Ind
15% Asian
12%
27% Hispanic
23% Black
Rep 28%
9% White
38%
59%
Demo 50%
72%
26%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Source: Voter News Service, 2000 General Election Exit Polls

 Vote for President
18 - 24 yrs by Race
0%
Other 1%
0%
0%
8%
Nader 5%
1%
6% Asian
0%
Buchannon 1%
Hispanic
0%
0% Black
31% White
Bush 7% 32%
56%
62%
Gore 61%
93%
38%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: Voter News Service, 2000 General Election Exit Polls

 Vote for U.S. Senate
18 - 24 yrs by Race
0%
3%
Other
1%
4%

Asian
29%
Rep
38% Hispanic
20%
Black
56%
White
71%

Demo 59%
78%
39%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: Voter News Service, 2000 General Election Exit Polls

 Vote for U.S. House
18 - 24 yrs by Race
0%
2%
Other
0%
3%

Asian
33%
Rep
28% Hispanic
16%
Black
57%
White
68%

Demo 70%
84%
40%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: Voter News Service, 2000 General Election Exit Polls

Latino Registration and
Voting by Gender
 Gender Comparisons by Ethnicity: Percent of
Citizen Population Voting in November 1998

Male % Reg

Male % Voting of White

CVAP
Black
Latino
Female % Reg Asian

Female % Voting of
CVAP

0 20 40 60 80
Understanding and
Explaining Latino Non-Voting
 Top 5 Reasons for Not Voting in November
1996 and November 1998 Elections by
Latino Registered Voters – Percent
Responding
Reasons 1998 1996
Too Busy, Forgot 46 27
Not interested/did not 16 24
like candidates
Registration 12 10
problems/
Inconvenience
Illness or Disability 8 13
No transportation 2 6
Source: Census Bureau. Current Population Reports. Registration and Voting in November 1998 and Registration and Voting in
November 1996.
Latino Non-Citizens
Number 8.9 Million
Heavily concentrated in
California, Texas, New York,
Florida, Illinois, Arizona, and
New Jersey
 Latinos non-citizens are 39% of the
Latino population and number
8,854,000 (18yrs+)

 The number of Latino adult non-citizens

(18yrs+) increased 23% from 1996-
2000
 7,217,000 in 1996
 8,854,000 in 2000
 Latino Non-Citizens Voting
Age Population Per State

State Total Latino Non-Citizen Percent

Non-Citizen
Arizona 802,474 312,965 39%
New Jersey 778,397 272,439 35%
Nevada 247,736 113,959 46%
Virginia 276,840 106,615 47%

Non-citizen estimates based on 2000 Census Hispanic voting age population and
1998 non-citizen ration
 Latino Non-Citizens Voting
Age Population Per State

State Total Latino Non-Citizen Percent

Non-Citizen
California 6,915,731 3,457,865 50%
Texas 4,282,901 1,242,041 29%
New York 1,974,551 789,820 40%
Florida 1,980,176 772,269 39%
Illinois 977,952 440,078 45%
 Voter Registration Rates for
Hispanic, White and Black Adult Citizens in 1998

Characteristics Hispanic White Black

Total
18 yrs + 55% 69% 64%

Sex
Male 53% 68% 61%
Female 57% 70% 66%
Age Hispanic White Black
18-24 yrs 36% 46% 41%
25-34 yrs 52% 61% 62%
35-44 yrs 57% 70% 65%
45-54 yrs 60% 75% 70%
65-74 yrs 73% 81% 76%
75 yrs + 68% 76% 73%
Educational Attainment Hispanic White Black
Less than 9th grade 56% 56% 63%
9th to 12th grade,
no diploma 39% 50% 50%
High School Graduate 51% 64% 59%
Some College or
Associates Degree 64% 73% 70%
Bachelors Degree 71% 80% 78%
Advanced Degree 66% 85% 83%
Annual Family Income Hispanic White Black
Under $5,000 41% 51% 50%
5,000-9,999 58% 51% 59%
10,000-14,999 46% 61% 59%
15,000-24,999 52% 65% 64%
25,000-34,999 57% 68% 67%
35,000-49,999 61% 72% 66%
50,000-74,999 69% 77% 77%
75,000+ 72% 82% 79%
Home Ownership Hispanic White Black
Owner-occupied units 63% 4% 70%
Renter-occupied units 44% 52% 56%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population

Survey, Voting and Registration in the Election of
November 1998
 Political Involvement
Percentage of Latinos who have:
YES NO
Worked as a volunteer or for pay 10 90
For Latino Candidate

Attended public meeting or demonstration 21 79

Contributed money to Latino candidate or 11 89

Political organization

Source: Kaiser/Harvard University National Latino Survey, 1999

 Political Recruitment and
Mobilization
In the past ten years has anyone asked you to …?
(Based on political inactive Latinos)
YES
NO
Work as a volunteer or for pay 5 95
for a Latino political candidate

Attend a public meeting or 4 96

Demonstration regarding Latino concerns

Contributed money to be a Latino Candidate 5 95

Or Latino Organization
Latino Views on the
Role of Government
 Q: Which comes closer
to your view?
57%
Govt should do more to 60%
solve problems 72%
37% Asian
Hispanic
Black
35% White
Govt is doing too many
35%
things better left to
24%
business and individuals
58%

10% 30% 50% 70% 90%

Source: Voter News Service, 2000 General Election Exit Polls

 Q: Do you believe it is the responsibility or isn’t
the responsibility of the federal government to
make sure minorities have equity with whites?
Respondents indicating Federal Government is responsible to ensure jobs,
schools, hearth care, and equal treatment with police and courts.
50%
Jobs
66%
73%
40%

72%
Schools
79% Asian
89%
65% Hispanic
63% Black
Healthcare 78%
90% White
55%
71%
Treatment by the 80%
Courts & Police 89%
69%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: Race and Ethnicity in 2001. Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation
The Latino Vote in 2002
 Hotly Contested 2002 U.S. Senatorial Elections
Where Latinos are A Swing Vote
Projected Projected
Latino Citizen Latino
State Incumbent Voting Age Population Registered Voter Margin

1. Colorado Allard (R) 319,900 245,000 72,725 (R)

2. Iowa Harkin (D) 30,200 20,900 62,359 (D)
3. Minnesota Wellstone (D) 51,600 15,800 197,211 (D)
4. New Jersey Torricelli (D) 544,600 349,700 291,803 (D)
5. New Mexico Domenici (R) 464,000 269,200 192,815 (R)
6. North Carolina Open 137,200 37,800 171,958 (R)
7. Texas Open 3,234,300 1,817,700 598,904 (R)
8. Virginia Warner (R) 132,400 41,900 119,762 (R)
 Hotly Contested 2002
Gubernatorial Elections
Where Latinos are A Swing Vote
Projected
Latino Citizen Latino 1998 Winning
State Incumbent Voting Age Population Registered Voter Margin
1. ArizonaOpen 531,900 220,800 258,636 (D)
2. California Davis (D) 3,697,700 2,052,300 1,642,068 (D)
3. Connecticut Rowland (R) 196,400 98,200 274,520 (R)
4. Florida Bush (R) 1,299,200 767,900 418,051 (R)
5. Illinois Open 577,700 321,300 119,903 (R)
6. Maryland Open 75,400 32,500 158,615 (D)
7. Massachusetts Swift (R-Oppt) 155,400 62,500 65,317 (R)
8. Michigan Open 171,700 118,900 739,431 (R)
 Hotly Contested 2002
Gubernatorial Elections
Where Latinos are A Swing Vote
Projected
Latino Citizen Latino 1998 Winning
State Incumbent Voting Age Population Registered Voter Margin
9. Nevada Guinn (R) 152,200 39,200 41,611 (R)
10. New Mexico Johnson (R) 464,000 269,200 45,193 (R)
11. New York Pataki (R) 1,239,600 727,700 1,001,674 (R)
12. Ohio Taft (R) 140,400 55,400 179,765 (R)
13. Oregon Open 79,900 35,400 383,060 (D)
14. Pennsylvania Open 233,200 116,200 798,099 (R)
15. Texas Perry (R-Oppt) 3,234,300 1,817,700 1,386,010 (R)
16. Wisconsin McCallum (R-Oppt) 114,400 72,800 368,163 (R)
Latinos and
President Bush
 President Bush Job Approval by
Racial and Ethnic Group
Before September 11, 2001
November 2001
% Approve Job Bush Was Doing
Overall 55%
Whites 58%
Blacks 36%
Hispanics 59%

Source: Gallup Poll June 11-17, 2001 (Latino N=248)

 President Bush Approval Ratings
After September 11, 2001
June 2001
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W.
Bush is handling his job as President?

White Blacks Latino

Approve 88% 68% 89%
Disapprove 4% 24% 8%
 President Bush’s First Year
Presidential Appointees Compared
to President Clinton

Bush Clinton
Women 26% 46%
African American 9% 14%
Hispanic 8% 6%
Asian 3% 3%