Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
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Equity &
Currency Markets
Michael Melvin
LECTURE 1: Section 1
Overview of the FX Market
London the biggest market (34%), followed by New York (17%) and Zurich, Tokyo, & Singapore (6%)
Still a USD world
(Euromoney FX Poll)
Market Share
Deutsche Bank
22%
UBS
16%
Barclays Capital
9%
Citi
7%
RBS
7%
JPMorgan
4%
HSBC
4%
Lehman Bros
4%
Goldman Sachs
3%
Morgan Stanley
3%
Bank of America
2%
Dresdner Kleinwort
2%
BNP Paribas
2%
Credit Suisse
2%
LECTURE 1: Section 2
The Case for Active Currency Management
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Tourists
Corporates financing payables & receivables or hedging
Central banks intervening, providing liquidity, or managing volatility as a policy tool
Global investors in fixed income & equities (hedging or not)
Dealers are 3rd party intermediaries between liquidity providers and liquidity
takers
If the other two parties did not trade or could trade directly, there would be no dealers
Dealers charge bid-ask spread for providing intermediation services
Dealers manage risk by passing their positions to others
Profit-oriented traders will take their positions for a price
11
12
13
Reporting dealers
Interbank, intermediary flows
Down from 1992,69% to 2007, 43%
Non-financial customers
Corporates and governments
Steady from 1992, 18% to 2007, 17%
14
Ancillary evidence
Central bank policy of leaning against the wind generates losses from FX
intervention
Creating profit opportunities for others
16
LECTURE 1: Section 3
FX Market Microstructure
17
Market Structure
18
Participants
Dealers
Marketmakers: provide liquidity & two-way prices
Interbank & customer trades
Customers
Central bank, non-bank financial institutions, smaller banks,
corporates
Brokers
Intermediate trades
Historically just interbank, but democratization via electronic platforms
An alternative to direct dealing
Anonymity provided
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20
22
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
EURGBP
EBS
USDJ P Y
EURJ P Y
Reuters
USDCHF
Currenex
EURCHF
Hotspot
USDCAD AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Lava
23
24
25
LECTURE 1: Section 4
Temporal Patterns of FX Trading
26
- weekly
- daily
- intradaily (5-minutes intervals).
The euro first appeared and began trading at the beginning of 1999
27
Explaining.. Data
A record of every trade that occurred on the euro against the U.S.
dollar over the period of: January 1, 1999 - October 7, 2003.
While data exist for both the dollar value as well as number of
trades, we focus on the latter variable as an indicator of trading
activity.
The dollar value includes the effect of exchange rate changes and
such valuation effects may lead to misleading characterizations of
trading intensity.
28
Explaining.. Data
29
30
Galati and Melvin (BIS, 2004) provide an analysis of the BIS survey
data on global foreign exchange trading and conclude that in the
early 2000s three factors appeared to contribute to rapid growth in
foreign exchange trading:
Exchange rate trends that fostered momentum-based trading,
Interest-rate differentials that led to carry-trades
Growth of interest in currencies as an asset class alternative to equity
and fixed income
31
Explaining.. momentum
yt st
t 1
T 1
st 1 st st st 1
t 2
33
34
The number of trades per week were aggregated to create the dependent variable
of interest: Numtrades
Then the following equation was estimated:
Where
Trend - the change in the log of the smoothed USD/EUR exchange rate estimated via the H-P
filter;
Intdiff - the absolute change in the interest differential between the federal funds and ECB
interest rates;
Positions - the absolute value of purchases minus sales of euros against dollars by big
market participants
Variable
Constant
Trend
Intdiff
Positions
AR1
R2= 0.644
Q(10) = 13.047
Coefficient
14,405.8
1,558,603
1,496.1
0.019
0.732
P-value
(0.000)
(0.041)
(0.092)
(0.315)
(0.00)
(0.175)
35
Calendar effects
Market participants typically expect liquidity to be lower on Friday
than on other days.
This effect is due to aversion to opening positions prior to the weekend.
With two days of non-trading, any news that may occur over the weekend
cannot be met with a reaction. So position changes are not possible.
As a result, we should expect trading volume to be lower on Fridays than on
other days.
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Coefficient
MON
-22.202
TUE
752.832
WED
20.902
THU
-20.443
FRI
-497.751
FED
-116.159
ECB
119.792
R2= 0.674
Q(10) = 6.9035 (0.228)
P-value
(0.638)
(0.000)
(0.671)
(0.681)
(0.000)
(0.202)
(0.209)
37
Explaining.. Intradaily
1) Time of Day
2) Stop-Loss Orders
3) Trade Persistence
38
Explaining.. Intradaily
Time of Day
39
Explaining.. Intradaily
Intradaily Number of Trades per 5-Minute Interval for USD/EUR (standardized)
January 2003
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
1
11 21 31
41 51
61 71
81
91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281
Tim e Inte rval
40
Explaining.. Intradaily
The two largest spikes occur following the period of 13:30 London
(8:30 New York) when most U.S. macro news announcements are
received and 15:00 London (10:00 New York) when many foreign
exchange options expire and trading related to unwinding delta
hedges occurs
There is also some U.S. macro news that occurs at 15:00 London
time
41
Explaining.. Intradaily
42
Explaining.. Intradaily
Stop-Loss Orders
Recent research has attempted to link large exchange rate
changes or price cascades to the presence of stop-loss or takeprofit orders.
orders that customers place with banks that will trigger purchases or
sales of currency once the exchange rate reaches a particular level
Osler (JF, 2005; JIMF, 2003) has shown that such orders tend to cluster
at round numbers or big figures
We examine the role of crossing round numbers in our highfrequency data set on dollar/euro trades by creating a variable
Round that is set equal to 1 in any 5-minute interval in which a
round number is passed.
For the EURUSD, that would be any time the exchange rate passes
the big figure which is the exchange rate at two decimal points
like 1.25 or 1.05.
43
Explaining.. Intradaily
Trade Persistence
If there is a very active market in the current 5-minute interval, there is likely
to be very active trading in the next 5-minute interval.
We examine models for each month of our sample and fit a separate noise
model to each month.
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Explaining.. Intradaily
We estimate the following for each month of our sample:
3.036
(0.00)
February
4.371
(0.00)
March
3.382
(0.00)
April
0.640
(0.00)
May
0.668
(0.00)
June
1.519
(0.00)
July
1.550
(0.00)
August
0.742
(0.00)
September 1.306
(0.00)
October
2.658
(0.00)
2.668
(0.00)
2.136
(0.00)
0.804
(0.01)
1.452
(0.00)
1.205
(0.00)
0.725
(0.00)
1.131
(0.00)
0.569
(0.00)
0.738
(0.00)
1.911
(0.00)
-2.438
(0.00)
-3.874
(0.00)
-2.736
(0.00)
-0.190
(0.15)
-0.066
(0.00)
-0.806
(0.00)
-0.880
(0.00)
-0.274
(0.00)
-0.662
(0.00)
-1.798
(0.00)
-2.936
(0.00)
-4.278
(0.00)
-3.320
(0.00)
-0.702
(0.00)
-0.712
(0.00)
-1.570
(0.00)
-1.595
(0.00)
-0.801
(0.00)
-1.404
(0.00)
-2.701
(0.00)
0.854
(0.00)
0.815
(0.00)
0.872
(0.00)
0.962
(0.00)
0.954
(0.00)
0.923
(0.00)
0.916
(0.00)
-0.955
(0.00)
0.943
(0.00)
0.899
(0.00)
R2
Q(12)
Obs
0.668
12.93
(0.17)
11.74
(0.11)
10.11
(0.12)
13.40
(0.15)
9.148
(0.17)
7.721
(0.17)
7.051
(0.42)
6.010
(0.65)
10.420
(0.17)
2.590
(0.76)
6,718
0.660
0.721
0.704
0.713
0.708
0.677
0.695
0.679
0.719
6,144
6,528
6,720
6,720
6,528
7,008
6,528
6,720
6,720
45