Real-world population calamities

in seemingly empty environments

We are covering this because it has possible implications for US

This presentation is about

Climb-and-collapse outcomes in real-world population systems Population calamities in seemingly vast open-space environments Population explosions that induce calamity by their secretion of wastes U.N. population projections to the end of this century and 2/1000ths
of

1%

This presentation is also about

Climb-and-collapse

Climb and collapse outcomes really happen and we are not immune Collapse routinely occurs in environments that visually appear to be almost entirely empty Collapse with 99% mortality is a biological reality We are not immune to collapse, and compared to any other animals or dinoflagellates that have ever lived, we are behaving very badly

Three real-world examples of calamity in tiny fractions of 1% vast open-space conditions

Plus , two classical real-world climb-and-collapse examples in separate mammalian populations

This presentation is also about Our release of wastes, which shows an interesting similarity with population explosions of red-tide dinoflagellates Dinoflagellate red-tides as quintessential examples of population explosions that induce calamity by the release of wastes The fact that calamities can arise from wastes and damage (as opposed to running-out-of things)

We are covering this because it has possible implications for US

This presentation is also about

Our own trajectory which may well be far worse than outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide because we supplement our biological and metabolic wastes with a daily, and growing worldwide onslaughts of industrial and societal wastes While outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide can be categorized as localized events, our own species exerts impacts that are global in nature Collapse routinely occurs in environments that visually-appear to be almost entirely empty Earths atmosphere and seas as onion-skin-thin surface films

in

seemingly empty environments

The dot in this image depicts one of natures quintessential populationenvironment calamities:

An outbreak of dinoflagellate red-tide

The dot in this image denotes 2/1000ths of 1% of its rectangle

For the organisms occupying the white dot in this classical real-world population calamity,

Too late

The organisms involved have already

waited too long

and have already passed a critical population-environment tipping-point

So that the white dot shown here depicts real-world conditions that are TOO LATE

Too late

For the real-world organisms represented by the 2/1000ths of 1% dot depicted in this image the condition shown here is already

too late

In two OTHER classical studies the organisms involved have also already

waited too long

and have already passed a critical population-environment tipping-point so that the white dot shown here depicts conditions that are already

The dot in this image denotes 2/1000ths of 1% of its rectangle

TOO LATE

Also . CAUTION!
.

The white dot in this image may change how you see the world

In nature, population calamities in environments that visually appear to be ALMOST COMPLETELY EMPTY

are common enough to be disquieting and may have something to tell us about ourselves

This presentation explores three typical and classical real-world population calamities that transpired in environmental surroundings that were almost entirely empty

This presentation is a courtesy of

The Wecskaop Project

It is entirely free for non-commercial use by scientists, students, and educators anywhere in the world

What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

Copyright 2011, The Wecskaop Project. All rights reserved.

The Open-Space Delusion

There is a widely-held misperception within much of society that human population growth and overpopulation cannot become truly serious so long as vast amounts of open space remain

Catastrophic population outcomes at tiny fractions of one percent thresholds - Three real-world examples

These seemingly innate or intuitive open-space suppositions can be exceptionally dangerous

because they tempt us into complacency

This presentation will introduce three classical and catastrophic real-world population outcomes at tiny fractions of one percent thresholds

This presentation assesses these open-space suppositions

mathematically

Red-tide Dinoflagellates

One-celled organisms called dinoflagellates

constitute one of natures quintessential examples of population explosions that induce calamity by their production of wastes

For example, a dinoflagellate red-tide along the coast of Texas in 1997-1998 killed an estimated 21 million fish

Bushaw-Newton, K.L. and Sellner, K.G. 1999. Harmful Algal Blooms IN: NOAAs State of the Coast Report, Silver Spring, MD.

Other outbreaks have resulted in the deaths of an estimated 150 tons of fish as well as manatees and other marine organisms

Bushaw-Newton, K.L. and Sellner, K.G. 1999. Harmful Algal Blooms IN: NOAAs State of the Coast Report, Silver Spring, MD.

One species of dinoflagellate known for such outbreaks is Karenia brevis

Karenia brevis manages to inflict such population disasters even as their populations of 1,000,000 cells per liter physically-occupy less than 2/1000 ths of one percent

of seemingly "vast amounts of open-space" that appear to remain theoretically available

Notice the white dot in this image

which depicts in a mathematically-correct way

2/1000ths
of

1%

of the rectangle in which it resides

SUPPORTING MATHEMATICS is set forth in our appendices

In other words, they undergo and induce

population calamities
in environments that visually-appear to be

almost entirely empty

Look again at the 2/1000ths of 1% dot in this image and imagine the most intelligent possible individuals residing there. Which, if any, members of such a population could be convinced that their own species faced a calamitous environmental threshold when such vast amounts of open-space appear to remain seemingly available?

In other words, they undergo and induce

population calamities
in environments that visually-appear to be

almost entirely empty

This set of conditions is worth noting, perhaps, since our own species appears to exhibit an extraordinarily similar pattern of behavior

Unlike red-tide dinoflagellates, however, our own species does not confine itself

to releasing only its biological and metabolic wastes into our surroundings

Instead, we supplement our biological wastes, in a way that is unprecedented in the history of life on earth, with billions of tons of societal and industrial wastes

so that we may be embarked upon a trajectory that is not only

worse
than that of red-tide dinoflagellates

This, of course, is not to necessarily suggest a direct applicability of dinoflagellate impacts and trajectories to humanitys own global trajectories and impacts today

However, the fact that dinoflagellate populations can induce calamity (by their production of wastes) even when seemingly vast amounts of open-space appear to remain theoretically-available

would seem to be worth noting since our own species appears to exhibit an extraordinarily similar pattern of behavior.

It is also worth noting that while K. brevis cells release only their biological, cellular, and metabolic wastes into their surroundings,

our own species supplements its biological wastes with daily worldwide and ever-increasing avalanches of industrial and societal wastes.

No other animals do this, and no other animals in the history of the earth have EVER done this;

so that our own species may, perhaps, be on a trajectory that is not only worse than that of an outbreak of red-tide dinoflagellates,

but may be multiple orders of magnitude worse at that.

Also, outbreaks of red-tide, while catastrophic, are at least relatively localized events

While our own population explosion, however, encompasses the entirety of earths biosphere

as do the impacts that we inflict

But we are smarter than a population of mindless one-celled dinoflagellates arent we?

Dinoflagellates, on the other hand, have not devised

bulldozers, chain saws, and ways to quickly eradicate entire forests, long-lines, radar, and GPS to catch entire schools of fish, automobiles, coal mines, and power plants to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere nor ways to pollute earths waters and drain aquifers and eradicate the Aral Sea over the entire world at once

End of part one

Climb-and-collapse

Climb-and-collapse

Scheffer, V.B., 1951. The rise and fall of a reindeer herd, Scientific Monthly 73:356-362

First, note these two classic Climb-and-collapse population studies of reindeer herds

Scheffer, 1951

Klein, 1968

Klein, D.R., 1968. The Introduction, Increase, and Crash of Reindeer on St. Matthew Island. Journal of Wildlife Management 32: 350-367.

Notice that each reindeer herd exhibited a classic

Climb-and-collapse

population curve

Scheffer, 1951

Klein, 1968

First note that each reindeer herd exhibited a classic climb-and-collapse population curve

Scheffer, 1951

Klein, 1968

In each case, an initial period of exponential growth was followed by a . 99% die-off

Secondly we note that both reindeer populations physically-occupied

Secondly we note that both reindeer populations physically-occupied

About 2/1000ths of 1%

Secondly we note that both reindeer populations occupied

About 2/1000ths of 1%

of the area remaining theoretically-available to them at the time of the collapse

So that both die-offs BEGAN (and proceeded) in environments that visually appeared to be Approximately 99.998% EMPTY

almost entirely empty

So that both die-offs BEGAN (and proceeded) in environments that visually appeared to be almost entirely empty

Supporting mathematics is posted in appendices ONE AND TWO

Compare these two graphs

Below: Note the reindeer rocketing upward before their 99% die-off

Billions 8, 9, and 10 are based on U.N. mediumfertility projections to 2100

Right: Human population growth 8000 BC to present

Compare these two graphs

Which upward trajectory is more extreme?

Billions 8, 9, and 10 are based on U.N. mediumfertility projections to 2100

Do you see any dangerous and disquieting similarities?

More dangerous still, the real-world numbers that actually emerge could turn out to be

very much larger

than the mediumfertility U.N. estimates

than the U.N.s mediumfertility projections,

we will find ourselves on-track toward

15.8

billion by 2100

Billions 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15 are based on U.N. high- fertility projections to 2100

If worldwide fertility levels average just child per woman higher

Even members of a highlyintelligent species living in such vast open-space conditions

would find it difficult (if not impossible) to imagine that population dangers

could be imminent when so much surrounding open-space is present

In 1911 in the V. B. Scheffer study, 25 reindeer were introduced to 41 square mile St. Paul Island, Alaska

Scheffer, 1951

by 1938, their population peaked at more than 2000 reindeer yet by 1950 only eight remained

At their peak population of more than 2000 reindeer (shown here)

their combined bodies physically-occupied about 2/1000ths of 1% of the island upon which they lived

And then they underwent a

99% die-off
even as, taken together, their combined bodies physicallyoccupied only a tiny
Scheffer, 1951

fraction of one percent

of their seemingly-available environment

Scheffer, V.B., 1951. The rise and fall of a reindeer herd, Scientific Monthly 73:356-362

In 1944, 29 reindeer were introduced to 128 square mile St. Matthew Island, Alaska

Klein, 1968

by 1963, their population peaked at more than 6000 reindeer and fell to 42 remaining in 1964

At their peak population of more than 6000 reindeer (shown here)

Klein, 1968

their combined bodies physically-occupied about 2/1000ths of 1% of the island upon which they lived

And then they underwent a

99% die-off
even as, taken together, their combined bodies physicallyoccupied only a tiny

fraction of one percent

Klein, 1968

of their seemingly-available environment

Notice that BOTH herds underwent a

even as their combined bodies physically-occupied a tiny fraction of one percent

of the vast quantities of openspace that appeared to remain theoretically-available

About 2/1000ths of 1%

In nature, this really does happen, and this presentation shows actual examples in four entirely independent settings Twice in reindeer herds (mammals),
AND

In outbreaks of red-tide in unicellular marine organisms,

AND

Apparently to the early human inhabitants of Easter Island

J-curves on steroids?

More dangerous still, the real-world numbers that actually emerge could turn out to be

very much larger

than the medium-fertility U.N. estimates shown here

If worldwide fertility levels turn out to be just

child per woman

higher
than the U.N.s medium-fertility estimates

We could find ourselves headed toward

15.8
billion

by centurys end

(as shown in this graph)

Since these graphs are quintessential examples of J-curves

(one of the most dangerous types
of graphs in the world)

and since earths planetary carrying capacity for a modern industrialized humanity is on the order of two billion or less

And since we are now at 7 billion and may be headed toward 10 or 15.8 billion this century

and since each of our billions is a truly enormous number

Perhaps we should learn a lot more about these J-curves on steroids

Key Ideas so far

There is a widely-held misperception within our societies that human population growth and overpopulation cannot be truly serious so long as vast amounts of open space remain

Part One Key Ideas Real-world examples of Climb-and-collapse in population systems Collapse has taken place in environments that seemed to be almost entirely empty (.less than 2/1000ths of one percent.) Real-world examples of 99% die-offs A graph of human population growth over the past two centuries is more pronounced and more extreme than that seen in either of the cited reindeer examples

Given the current demographic corner into which we seem to have painted ourselves (and with up to our 10th to 15th billions on-track to arrive by the end of this century)

one would hope that we are collectively smarter than a mindless population of one-celled dinoflagellates that routinely show themselves capable of calamity while occupying

less than 2/1000ths of one percent of the volume in which the population sample resides

Invoking sobriety, however, we may actually be following a trajectory that is provocatively similar to that of the dinoflagellates

because our own species, like the red-tide dinoflagellates of marine habitats, releases chemical wastes and toxins into our surroundings

Worse still, from at least one point of view, we may actually be on a trajectory that is considerably worse than that of the dinoflagellates

and multiple orders of magnitude worse at that

for each dinoflagellate cell releases ONLY its metabolic and biological wastes into its surroundings

In our own case, however, we release not only our biological and metabolic wastes

but also an unprecedented daily avalanche of societal and industrial wastes that are

amplified by our ever-growing numbers and increasing industrialization

Additional Key Ideas

1 Dinoflagellate red-tides are quintessential examples of population

calamities arising from the release of wastes

2 Dinoflagellate red-tide calamities, however, arise from their release

of cellular and metabolic wastes into their surroundings

3 Because our own species also releases wastes into its surroundings,
we may be following a trajectory that is provocatively similar to that of an outbreak of dinoflagellate red-tide

Part Two Key Ideas

4 Except, of course, our own species supplements its biological

and cellular wastes with a daily worldwide avalanche of industrial and societal wastes

5 (A behavior that no other animals on earth exhibit and has

never previously happened in the entire history of the earth)

6 And lastly, while deadly outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide are

relatively localized events, while our own population outbreak is a worldwide phenomenon and worldwide in its effects

No Other Animals Do This

No other animals do this

Envision an individual animal of any species other than our own

Photos courtesy of life.nbii.gove fox = Mosesso; Others - Hermann

Envision an individual animal of any species other than our own

In virtually all of these cases, each organisms daily pollution of its environment is limited to daily production of its bodily wastes

Photos courtesy of life.nbii.gove fox = Mosesso; Others - Hermann

No population explosions of red-tide dinoflagellates (which poison their environments by the wastes that they release)

have EVER supplemented their cellular and biological wastes with a daily worldwide avalanche of industrial and societal wastes the way that we do

No other animal species

supplements
its cellular and biological wastes

with a planet-wide and everincreasing avalanche of industrial and societal wastes the way that we do

And then there are also the enormous additional levels of eradication, degradation and

SHEER PHYSICAL DAMAGE

that we are inflicting everywhere else upon the ONLY planetary life-support machinery so far known to exist anywhere in the universe

No other organisms in the history of the earth have

EVER
supplemented

their cellular and biological wastes

the way that we do

And these behaviors are NOT a minimal or incidental footnote to the biology of our species

Instead, they are one of our most distinctive and all-encompassing characteristics

Summaries and key concepts

We are dangerously misled by our prevailing open-space suppositions

for it is a misperception to presume that human population growth and overpopulation cannot be truly serious so long as vast amounts of open space remain

2/1000 ths of one percent

This presentation has also been about

Climb-and-collapse

Climb and collapse outcomes really happen and we are not immune Collapse routinely occurs in environments that visually appear to be almost entirely empty Collapse with 99% mortality is a biological reality We are not immune to collapse, and compared to any other animals or dinoflagellates that have ever lived, we are behaving very badly

Three real-world examples of calamity in tiny fractions of 1% vast open-space conditions

Plus , two classical real-world climb-and-collapse examples in separate mammalian populations

This presentation has also addressed Our release of wastes, which shows an interesting similarity with population explosions of red-tide dinoflagellates Dinoflagellate red-tides as quintessential examples of population explosions that induce calamity by the release of wastes The fact that calamities can arise from wastes and damage (as opposed to running-out-of things)

This presentation has also addressed

Our own trajectory which may well be far worse than outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide because we supplement our biological and metabolic wastes with a daily, and growing worldwide onslaughts of industrial and societal wastes While outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide can be categorized as localized events, our own species exerts impacts that are global in nature Collapse routinely occurs in environments that visually-appear to be almost entirely empty Earths atmosphere and seas as onion-skin-thin surface films

In addition, the running-out-of suppositions that have governed our thinking for many years
such as running-out-of space, food, oil, resources, or anything else

may not be the first or only factors that threaten us and such suppositions may lead us to an incomplete and inaccurate assessment of our current condition

Finally, we are the only animals that do this, or that have ever done this

and we are doing so on a worldwide scale so that we are not a localized phenomenon
and our behaviors in this respects are not a minimal or incidental footnote to the biology of our species but are instead one of our most distinguishing and all-encompassing characteristics

Lastly, but not least, there are these two graphs of our demographics which are very much like J-curves on steroids

First, five additional billions in less than one human lifetime since 1930 with the potential arrivals of billions numbers 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15 (and 800 million more after that) due by the end of this century

on a planet whose biospheric machinery was already being damaged at levels of five billion and six billion in 1987 and 1999 and whose planetary carrying capacity for a modern, industrialized humanity is on the order of two billion or less

also remembering the levels of sheer physical damage and eradication

that we inflict all around the world

Appendices and Supporting Mathematics

Supporting Math Red-tides

Severe red-tide conditions are common when Karenia brevis populations reach concentrations ranging between 100,000 to 1,000,000 or more cells per liter. Secondly, approximate dimensions of a typical K. brevis cell: (1) Volume of 1 liter = 1000 (2) Approximate dimensions of a typical K. brevis: L: ~30 um (= 0.03 mm) ** W: ~ 0.035 mm (a little wider than it is long") * D: ~ 10 15 um deep (10 um = 0.010 mm; 15 um = 0.015mm), (so average = ~ .0125 mm)
** Nierenberg, personal communication, 2008 ** Bushaw-Newton, K.L. and Sellner, K.G. 1999. Harmful Algal Blooms; NOAA ** Floridamarine.org, 2008

In other words, one million dinoflagellate cells in a 1000 cm3 sample still have approximately 999.986 875 cm3 of unoccupied volume that would appear to remain theoretically-available to them. Percentage Unoccupied

cm3

Therefore, the percentage unoccupied equals (999.986 875 cm3) divided by (1000) so that about 99.998 672 percent of the samples total volume remains unoccupied 99.998% This means that such Karenia populations manage to routinely visit calamity upon themselves and the environment in which they reside, even as all the cells taken together physically-occupy less than 2/1000ths of 1% of the total volume that appears to remain seemingly-available. Thus, (100%) (99.998 687 %) = (0.001 313 %), or less than 2/1000ths of 1% of the volume that appears to remain theoretically-available. Thus, even though the K. brevis cells occupy a volumetrically-insignificant portion of the "openspace" that visually appears to remain almost entirely empty, they manage, by their combined overpopulation and production of invisible and calamitous wastes, to catastrophically-alter and visit utter calamity upon their home environment which visually appears to remain almost entirely empty

Using the above:

Volume of a typical cell of K. brevis = (L) x (W) x (D) = (0.03) (0.035) (0.0125) = ~ 0.000 013 125 mm3
Thus one million Karenia brevis cells occupy approximately (1,000,000) x (0.000 013 125 mm3) = 13.125 mm3, or about 0.013 125 cm3 occupied. Since 1 liter = 1000 cm3, subtracting 0.013 125 cm3 (volume occupied) leaves (1000) minus (0.013 125 ) or about 999.986 875 cm3 unoccupied

Supporting Math
The image shown left depicts the physical amount of space that constitutes two one-thousandths of one percent. Note that the dot in the image denotes two one-thousandths of one percent of the dark rectangle. The step-by-step mathematics outlined below permits preparation of a two-dimensional illustration like the one shown here that visually depicts the proportional amount of area occupied by two one-thousandths of one percent. (1) Use imaging software to open a rectangle 500 pixels high by 350 pixels wide = 175,000 square pixels (Here: wine-red rectangle) (2) Thus, one percent of this area = (175,000) x (.01) equals 1750 square pixels (3) In addition, 1/1000ths of one percent = (1750) times (.001) equals1.750 square pixels (4) And two1000ths of one percent = (1750) x (.002) equals 3.5 square pixels (5) Calculating the square root of 3.5 square pixels equals 1.87 pixels, so that a square of (1.87 pixels) by (1.87 pixels) equals 3.5 square pixels

2/1000ths of one percent

Real-world population calamities in nearly empty environments

Thus beginning with a rectangle of 500 x 350 pixels, a small square of 1.87 pixels by 1.87 pixels (length times width) would visually depict a physical region of two one-thousandths of one percent.

Supporting Math Reindeer of St. Paul Island

Concerning V. B. Scheffers classic reindeer climband-collapse study on St. Paul Island, Alaska, our estimate that the reindeer of St. Paul Island, Alaska physically-occupied approximately 2/1000ths of 1% of the islands total area at the time of collapse is derived as follows. L: Assume an average reindeer is approximately 190 cm long
Female reindeer ~ 180 cm long; males ~ 200 cm plus non-adults, etc., so average = ~190 cm

that the bodies of the entire herd of 2000 animals would physically-occupy a total of 2470 m2. Since the area of St. Paul Island, Alaska is about 106,000,000 m2 (about 41 square miles), we next subtract the 2470 m2 that are physically-occupied by the entire herd from the total area of the island, so that (106,000,000 m2) minus (2470 m2) roughly equates to a total unoccupied area of about 105,997,530 m2 that would visually appear to remain seemingly-available. Lastly, dividing the islands total unoccupied space (105,997,530 m2 ) by the total area of the island (106,000,000 m2) equates to the percentage of total unoccupied space at the time of the peak reindeer population, which was 0.999 976 or 99.998%. Notice then that the collapse (and 99% die-off) of the St. Paul Island reindeer population began at a time when 99.998% of the islands total area appeared to remain theoretically-available, so that the herds maximum population, along with its collapse and catastrophic 99% die-off all took place and proceeded to near annihilation in a surrounding environment that visually appeared to remain almost entirely empty.

W: Assume that the width of an average reindeer is approximately 65 cm wide

Girth will vary with time of year; food, pregnant . . . females, and non-adults, so assume = ~ 65 cm

Thus the area physically-occupied by an average member of the population would equate to about (190 cm) x (65 cm) or about 12,350 cm2 each Given a peak reindeer population of slightly more than 2000 animals, (2000) x (12,350 cm2) equates to a total physically-occupied area by all the reindeer of the herd combined of approximately 24,700,000 cm2 One square meter = 10,000 cm2, so that dividing 24,700,000 cm2 by 10,000 equates to 2470 square meters physically-occupied by the entire herd, so

Supporting Math Reindeer of St. Matthew Island

We can apply the same approach to D.R. Kleins classic reindeer climb-and-collapse study on St. Matthew Island, Alaska (1968). Our estimate that the reindeer of St. Matthew Island physically-occupied approximately 2/100ths of 1% of the islands total area at the time of collapse is derived as follows. L: Assume an average reindeer is approximately 190 cm long
Females ~ 180 cm long; males ~ 200 cm long plus. . . non-adults, etc. thus, thus averaging circa 190 cm

of the entire reindeer herd on St. Matthew Island would physically-occupy a total area of 7410 m2 Since the total area of St. Matthew Island, Alaska is about 331,520 km2 (which equates to about 128 square miles), then expressed as m2, the islands total area equates to about 331,520,000 m2 . Next, we subtract the 7410 m2 that are physicallyoccupied by the entire herd from the total square meters of the island so that (331,520,000 m2) minus (7410 m2) equates to a total unoccupied area of approximately 331,512,590 m2. Lastly, dividing the islands total unoccupied space (331,512,590 m2) by the total area of the island (331,520,000 m2 ) gives the percentage of total unoccupied space on the island at the time of the maximum reindeer population, which was 0.999 978 or 99.998%. Notice then that the collapse and 99% die-off of the St. Matthew Island reindeer population began at a time when 99.998% of the islands total area visually-appeared to remain seemingly-available, so that the herds maximum population, along with its collapse and catastrophic 99% die-off all took place and proceeded to near annihilation in a surrounding environment that visually appeared to remain almost entirely empty.

W: Assume that the width of an average reindeer is approximately 65 cm wide

Girth will vary with time of year; food, pregnant . . . females, non-adults, etc., thus, roughly 65 cm

Thus the area physically-occupied by an average member of the population would equal (190 cm) x (65 cm) or approximately 12,350 cm2 each Given a peak reindeer population of St. Matthew island (1963) of slightly more than 6000 animals, (6000) times (12,350) equates to a total physically-occupied area of approximately 74,100,000 cm2 One square meter = 10,000 cm2, so that dividing 74,100,000 cm2 by 10,000 equates to about 7410 m2 which means that taken together, the peak population

Easter Island?
We assess Easter Islands historic climb-and-collapse human population data as outlined in Jared Diamonds book, Collapse How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (Viking, 2005) as follows: Area of the island = approximately 170 km2 (about 66 square miles) or about 170,939,215 square meters.

Assuming a mid-range peak human population of approximately 15,000, and that the average individual in the population physically-occupied approximately one square meter (standing), the combined area physically-occupied by all 15,000 individuals combined would equal approximately 15,000 square meters.
Therefore, given an island of approximately 170,939,215 square meters, if we subtract the approximately 15,000 square meters physically-occupied by all 15,000 human inhabitants combined, we are left with a remainder of approximately 170,924,215 square meters of unoccupied open-space that would visuallyappear to remain seemingly-available. Next, dividing the total unoccupied area (170,924,215 m2) by the islands total area of 170,939,212 m2, equates to an island that is 0.999912 unoccupied, or 99.991% empty. Thus we see that the mathematics suggests that a mid-range peak Easter Island human population reached its peak and began its collapse even as vast amounts of open-space appeared to remain seemingly available and its inhabitants seemed to be living in an environment that was almost entirely empty. Thus we see still another natural experiment that ended in collapse, this time involving a human society. Note, however, that the similarity of our situation and that of the peak population of Easter Island is not perfect, for the humans on Easter Island constituted a pre-industrial society that could kill its birds and

Easter Island?
most of its seabirds, deforest its surroundings, and overexploit its resources. Our own numbers, however, are both far greater, and our individual harmful impacts may have 50 or 100s or even1000s of times the impact of a single preindustrialized individual. Also unlike us, the islands pre-industrial society was a localized society that could not generate billions of tons of CO2 and industrial wastes, degrade and eradicate natural systems and plunder resources from all parts of the planet. In addition, they had no automobile exhausts, chlorofluorocarbons, logging concessions, mechanized fishing fleets, fossil fuels, nuclear and industrial wastes, and investment portfolios with which to simultaneously assault every corner of our planet.

Yes, we did notice the close agreement between the 2/1000ths of 1% that turned up in the assessment of dinoflagellate red-tides and the 2/1000ths of 1% figures that turned up independently in both of the mammalian climb-and-collapse reindeer studies that we cite.

view of our planet itself. Because we are, as individual creatures, such small beings compared to our planet, we tend to imagine, again erroneously, that the earth's atmosphere and seas are so immense that they must be relatively immune to the industrial and societal insults that we inflict. In mathematical and planetary terms, however, both earth's atmosphere and its seas are extraordinarily thin and superficial surface films. Mathematically speaking, for example, 99.94% of our planet consists of its crust, mantle, and its molten interior and the thin layer of water that we refer to as an ocean exists only as an inexpressibly thin and precarious surface film that is just 6/100ths of 1% as thick as the earth itself. To illustrate this depth to scale on a model globe, we would need a layer of water just 12/1000ths of an inch deep to proportionately represent the depth of earth's oceans. If we were to wipe a wet paper towel across a 40-cm globe, the film it leaves behind would be too deep to properly characterize the depth of earth's oceans.

Also, yes. We mathematically analyzed only the four cases cited, and were as surprised as anyone at the degree of agreement in all four results, strongly suggesting that our natural, instinctive, or intuitive "openspace" suppositions may be causing us to seriously underestimate the proximity, extent, and degree of danger that our present numbers may portend.
(And using an estimated peak population of preindustrial humans on Easter Island, as reported by Jared Diamond in his book Collapse, of 15,000 - 30,000, analysis produces another tiny fractional portion of 1%.) (And a typical, modern industrialized human has 50-100-1000s of times the impact of a single pre-industrialized individual.) In addition, the dangerous and widely-shared "vast open-space" suppositions that we have addressed in this presentation also extend to our widely-shared

After What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet; Anson, 2011; Marine Biology and Ocean Science, Anson, 1996; and Planet Ocean, International Oceanographic Foundation, 1977.

This presentation is a courtesy of

The Wecskaop Project

It is entirely free for non-commercial use by scientists, students, and educators anywhere in the world

What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

Copyright 2011, The Wecskaop Project. All rights reserved.