Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 32

# Metode Statistika II

## Pertemuan 6 - Uji Hipotesis Ratarata

Oleh : Rudi Salam
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

## Uji Hipotesis Rata-rata

Hypothesis
Tests for
Known

Unknown

Large
Samples

Small
Samples
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

z
n

Hypothesis
Tests for

Known

Unknown

## The test statistic is:

Large
Samples

Small
Samples

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

tn1snzxn
Calculating the Test Statistic

(continued)

Hypothesis
Tests for

Known

Unknown

## The test statistic is:But is

sometimes
approximated
using a z:

Large
Samples

Small
Samples

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

tn1sn

(continued)

Hypothesis
Tests for

Known

Unknown

Large
Samples

Small
Samples

## (The population must

be approximately
normal)

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

Testing
1.
2.

## Specify the population value of interest

Formulate the appropriate null and
alternative hypotheses

3.

4.

5.

6.

## Obtain sample evidence and compute

the test statistic
Reach a decision and interpret the
result
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

## Hypothesis Testing Example

Test the claim that the true mean
# of TV sets in US homes is at
(Assume
3.
= 0.8)
least

## 1. Specify the population value of interest

The mean number of TVs in US homes
2. Formulate the appropriate null and alternative
hypotheses
H : 3
HA: < 3 (This is a lower tail test)
0
3. Specify the desired level of significance
Suppose that = .05 is chosen for this test
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

(continued)

= .05

Reject H0

-z= -1.645

Do not reject
H0

## This is a one-tailed test with = .05.

Since is known, the cutoff value is a z value:
Reject H0 if z < z = -1.645 ; otherwise do not
reject H0

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

.z
x

2
8
4

.
1
6

2
.
0
0
0
8
n1
Hypothesis Testing Example

## 5. Obtain sample evidence and compute

the test statistic

## Suppose a sample is taken with the following

results: n = 100, x = 2.84 ( = 0.8 is assumed
known)

## Then the test statistic is:

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

(continued)

= .05
z
Reject H0

-1.645

Do not reject
H0

-2.0

## Since z = -2.0 < -1.645, we reject the null

hypothesis that the mean number of TVs in
US homes is at least 3
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

(continued)

= .05
x
Reject H0

2.868
2.84
4

## Since x = 2.84 <

2.8684, we reject the
null hypothesis

Now
expresse
d in x,
not z
units

Do not reject
H0

0.8
x z
3 1.645
2.8684
n
100

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

## p-Value Approach to Testing

x
Convert Sample Statistic (e.g.
) to
Test Statistic ( Z or t statistic )

computer

## If p-value , do not reject H0

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

(continued)

## p-value: Probability of obtaining a

test statistic more extreme ( or
) than the observed sample value
given H0 is true

## Also called observed level of

significance
Smallest value of for which H0 can
be rejected
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

p-value example

## Example: How likely is it to see a sample

mean of 2.84 (or something further below
the mean) if the true mean is = 3.0?

P( x 2.84 | 3.0)

2.84 3.0
P z

0.8

100

## P(z 2.0) .0228

= .05
p-value
=.0228
x
2.868
2.84

4
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

p-value example

(continued)

## If p-value < , reject H0

If p-value , do not reject
H0

= .05

Here:

p-value = .0228
= .05

## Since .0228 < .05, we

reject the null
hypothesis

p-value
=.0228

2.868
4

2.8
4

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

## Example: Upper Tail z Test

for Mean ( Known)
A phone industry manager thinks that
customer monthly cell phone bill have
increased, and now average over \$52
per month. The company wishes to
test this claim. (Assume = 10 is
known)

H0: 52
month

HA: > 52
month

## (i.e., sufficient evidence exists to support the

managers claim)
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

Region
(continued)

## Find the rejection region:

Reject H0

= .
10
Do not reject
H0
0

z=1.2
8

Reject H0

Reject H0 if z >
1.28
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

Review:
Finding Critical Value - One
Tail
What is z given =
0.10?

.90

.10

= .
.50 .40

10

0 1.28

Standard Normal
Distribution Table
(Portion)

.07

.08

.09

## 1.1 .3790 .3810 .3830

1.2 .3980 .3997 .4015
1.3 .4147 .4162 .4177

Critical
Value
= 1.28
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

5
3
.
1

5
2
z

0
.
8
0
n64
Example: Test Statistic

(continued)

## Obtain sample evidence and compute the

test statistic
Suppose a sample is taken with the
following results: n = 64, x = 53.1

(=10

## Then the test statistic is:

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

Example: Decision

(continued)

result:
Reject H
0

= .
10
Do not reject
H0
0

1.28

Reject H0

z = .88

## Do not reject H0 since z = 0.88

1.28
i.e.: there is not sufficient evidence that
the
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

p -Value Solution

(continued)

## Calculate the p-value and compare to

p-value = .
1894
Reject H0
= .10
0
Do not reject
H0

1.28
z=.
88

Reject H0

P( x 53.1 | 52.0)

53.1 52.0
P z

10

64

.1894

## Do not reject H0 since p-value = .1894 >

= .10
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

## Example: Two-Tail Test

( Unknown)
The average cost of a
hotel room in New
York is said to be
\$168 per night. A
random sample of 25
hotels resulted in x
= \$172.50 and
s = \$15.40. Test at
the
= 0.05 level.

H0: =
168 HA:
168

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

1
7
2
.
5
0

1
6
8
tn1

1
.
4
6
s
4
n

Test
H0: =
168 HA:
168
= 0.05
n = 25
is unknown,
so
use a t
statistic
Critical Value:
t24 = 2.0639

/2=.02
5

/2=.02
5

Reject H0

-t/2

-2.0639

Do not reject
H0
0

Reject H0

t/2

1.4
6

2.0639

## Do not reject H0: not sufficient evidence

that true mean cost is different than \$168

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

## Uji Proporsi Satu Populasi

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

tersebut)

## Fraksi atau proporsi populasi dalam

kategori sukses" dinotasikan dengan p

Proporsi

## Proporsi sampel pada kategori sukses

dinyatakan dengan p

(continued)

p

n
sample size

## Ketika np dan n(1-p) paling tidak bernilai

5, p dapat diapproksimasi dengan
distribusi normal dengan rata-rata dan
standar deviasi
p(1 p)

p
p
p

Distribusi

sampling dari p
sehingga
statistic ujinya

p p
p(1 p )
n

Hypothesis
Tests for p
np 5
and
n(1-p) 5

np < 5
or
n(1-p) < 5
Not
discussed in
this chapter

## Example: z Test for

Proportion
A marketing company
8% responses from its
mailing. To test this
claim, a random
sample of 500 were
surveyed with 25
responses. Test at
the = .05
significance level.

Check:
n p = (500)(.08)
=40

n(1-p) = (500)(.92)
=460
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

## Z Test for Proportion:

Solution
Test Statistic:

H 0: p = .
08 HA: p
.08
= .05

n = 500, p = .05
Critical Values:
1.96
Rejec
t

Rejec
t
.
025

-2.47

.05 .08
2.47
.08(1 .08)
500

Decision:

.
025
-1.96 0

pp

p(1 p)
n

1.96

Reject H0 at = .05

Conclusion:
There is sufficient
evidence to reject
the companys claim
of 8% response rate.

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

p -Value Solution

(continued)

## Calculate the p-value and compare to

(For a two sided test the p-value is always two sided)
Do not reject
H0

Reject
H0

/2 = .
025

Reject H0
/2 = .
025

.
0068

.
0068

-1.96
z=
-2.47

p-value = .
0136:

2(.5 .4932)
2(.0068) 0.0136

1.96
z=
2.47

## Reject H0 since p-value = .0136 <

= .05
rudisalam@stis.ac.id -

Soal
Sebuah uang logam dilantun 20 kali dan
menghasilkan 5 muka. Apakah dari sini
cukup ada alasan untuk menolak hipotesis
bahwa uang tadi setangkup dan meyakini
tandingannya bahwa muka muncul kurang
dari 50%? Sebutkan p-value nya.

Chapter Summary

Terima Kasih

rudisalam@stis.ac.id -