Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Eruptions
Corruptions
Michael P Totten
Presentation CYA, Jan. 28, 2016
delaide Stout-Greenbaum
2014 -
Brenna Lavelle
2003 -
Hiliary Green
1991-2013
Eruptions
Eruptions
Corruptions
Political
Power
Corporate
Greed
Corruptions
Disruptions
L o g a rit h m ic +P l o t
L o g a r it h m ic +P l o t
L o g a r it h m ic +P l o t
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1 .5 y e a rs
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1 .6 y e a rs
M ic r o p r o c e s s o r C o s t p e r T r a n s is t o r C y c le
1 .1 y e a rs
To t a l B it s S h ip p e d
1 .1 y e a rs
P r o c e s s o r P e r fo r m a n c e in M IP S
1 .8 y e a rs
T r a n s is t o r s in In t e l M ic r o p r o c e s s o r s
2 .0 y e a rs
M ic ro p r o c e s s o r C lo c k S p e e d
2 .7 y e a rs
Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw
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Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw
15
Wireless smart
sensor networks
Trillion$ Valuable
Smartphone
NANO technology
engineering & Mfg
Ray Kurzweil
Exponential Finance
J uly, 2014
http://www.ted.com/talks/
ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us?language=en
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnyQWr8hk0A
20th Century
Organizations
21st Century
Organizations
s ) V is io n s
Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
People Online
Smartphones
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t
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1.5
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0.5
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1995
2000
2014
2020
Source: Benedict Evans, Industrial Internet,11-2014, Partner, AndreesenHorowitz; and, B. Evans, Mobile Is Eating the World, May 2013
(Left) Road Map for the Trillion Sensor Universe, 11/2013, Janusz Bryzek,VP,
MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor
Personal Pocket
SuperComputers
SuperComputer
Networkers
b e y o n d z e ro n e t
D a y lig h tin g
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ility
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v is u a liz a t io n
p ro cu rem ent
millions
http://www.statista.com/statistics/266488/forecast-of-mobile-app-downloads/
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P e t r o le u m C o u n c il, 2 0 0 7 a f te r C r a ig , C u n n in g h a m a n d S a ig o .
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th a t th e tu rb in e s c a lin g a n d o th e r im p ro v e m e n ts to tu rb in e e ffic ie n c y d e s c rib e d in C h a p te r 4 h a v e
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71 Million ft2
2.75 Million
Students
112 California
locations
5,000 bldgs
https://www.iea.org/publications
/freepublications/publication/we
o-2014-special-report--investment.html
Jacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al., 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector
energy roadmaps for the 50 United States, Journal of Energy & Environmental Science, May 17, 2015, Royal
Society of Chemistry, https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html
http://thesolutionsproject.org/
http://100.org
www.go100re.net
Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS World
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,
Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS World
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,
Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
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AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,
JacobsonDelucchi
100%
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Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS Calif.
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,
Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,
Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
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Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,
Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,
"In the future, they may not need to," said co-lead
author Christopher Clack, a physicist and
mathematician with the Cooperative Institute for
Research in Environmental Sciences at the
University of Colorado Boulder.
60-fold
increase
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/09/22/chinas-wind-energy-capacity-triple-2020-globaldata/,
September 22nd, 2015 by Joshua S Hill *
11 stateswith>10%wind
generation in 2014: Colorado, Idaho,
Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota,
North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon,
South Dakota, and Texas 5
Two stateswith>25%wind
generation in 2014: Iowa (30%)
and South Dakota (25%)
Average of 73,000 U.S. jobsin
installation, manufacturing and
operations over 2010-2014 6
eere.energy.gov
70
60
50
40
TW 30
20
10% yr growth
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839
2012
years
2028
2050
2035
Ray Kurzweil and Larry Page, calculate solar PV growth achieving 8 doublings within the next several decades,
matching
total global energy demand, prepared for National Academy of Engineers Workshop
of Experts, 2008
https://charlieonenergy.wordpress.com/2015/12/07/solar-and-moores-law/,
December
7, 2015 /
(Land
Based)Size (Land Based)
Evolution of Wind
Turbine
Ed DeMeo, Governors Wind & Solar Energy, Coalition Policy Priorities Workshop, June 19,
2015, http://www.governorswindenergycoalition.org/?page_id=13502
~140,000 230 MW
25
400,000 3TW 20 MW
15
10
1 million 55 MW
0
3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739
6.6 1million
52012MW
2050
years
New map shows how taller wind turbines can help unlock wind's
potential in all 50 states, especially in the southeastern U.S.
http://energy.gov/eere/articles/unlocking-our-nation-s-win
d-
Lab-efficiency >
20 % & 2 %
share overall
PV market in
2013.
Lab-efficiency >
20 % & 2 %
share overall
PV market in
2013.
Lab-efficiency >
20 % & 2 %
share overall
PV market in
2013.
Crystal structure of
CH3NH3PbX3 perovskites
(X=I, Br and/or Cl). The
methylammonium cation
CIGS
CdTe
5 percent of worldwide
PV production, & half
the thin film market.
FirstSolar 14 % efficient
& price below 60 cents
EFFICIENCY/
PRODUCTIVITY
50+% Global
Total
Energy Services
I. M O TIV A TI O N
1 ) P r o v e o r d INTEGRATED
is p r o v e th e e c o n o m ic v ia b ilit
HOW TO ACCELERATE
r e tr o fits .
DESIGN (& DEEP RENOVATION) IN
P r io r to 2 0 0 8 , th e E m p ir e S ta te B u ild in g s
THE GLOBAL BUILDING
SECTOR?
to m o s t U .S . o ffic e b u ild in g s .
208,000 buildings
equivalent to
Empire State
Building are
planned for
construction
through 2030
source: Ed Mazria, Architecture 2030, ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS, June 4, 2014, submission to Durban Platform for Enhanced Action; citing and
Adapted from, Dobbs, Richard. Insights & Publications. 06- 2012. http:/ / www.mckinsey.com/ insights/ urbanization/
urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class
A S S E Ts
Apps for
Spurring
Solar and
Efficiency
Techknowledge
http://www.critigen.com/solution/solar-map-standard-edition
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w a s p in p o in t e d a t a le a k in g c h ille d w a t e r v a lv e t h a t o n c e r e p a ir e d
p r o d u c e d $ 6 0 ,0 0 0 in a n n u a l s a v in g s w it h R O I in t h e r s t m o n t h .
SMALL'SENSORS'
BIG'DATA'
VISUAL'ANALYTICS'
R e tu rn fa n
statu s
B u ild in g n a m e :
E q u ip m e n t n a m e :
A n a ly s is n a m e :
E s t im a t e d d a ily c o s t s a v in g s :
P ro b le m :
E x c e s s o r s im u lta n e o u s h e a tin g
a n d c o o lin g
e ith e r p r o v id in g e x c e s s h e a tin g o r c o o lin g
o r o p e r a tin g s im u lt a n e o u s ly .
P o s s ib le c a u s e s :
a n d is le a k in g .
> T e m p e ra tu r e s e n s o r e rr o r o r s e n s o r
in s ta lla tio n e r r o r is c a u s in g im p r o p e r
c o n tr o l o f th e v a lv e s .
O utd o o r
a ir t e m p
S im u lt a n e o u s
h e a t i n g a n d c o o l in g
O c c u p a n c y
is a t s e t p o in t
S u p p ly a ir
te m p e ratu re
s e t p o in t
M ix e d a ir
te m p e ra tu re
se n so r
S u p p ly f a n
statu s
H e a t in g
v a lv e
p o s it i o n
P r e h e a t in g
d is c h a r g e
te m p e ratu re
C o o lin g
v a lv e
p o s it io n
11
B e n c h m a r k in g o f In fo s y s b u ild in g s
D e sign %ta rge t%
U n its%
US
In d ia
B e st%p ra c : c e % In fo sy s%
Decrease'in'project'risk''
with'increase'in'BIM'details'
I ssa , S u er m a n n a n d O lb in a
A/E'Firms'
Contractors'
Owners'
R is k
Cradle'to'Cradle*Facility*Lifespan*Integra6on**
2D
3D
4D
5D
6D
7D
F i g u r e 3 : D e c r e a s e i n p r o j e c t r i s k w i th th e i n c r e a s e i n m o d e l d e ta i l s
V I C O C o n tr o l i s a l o c a ti o n b a s e d v i r tu a l c o n s tr u c ti o n s y s te m th a t a l l o w s th e c r e a ti o n o f c o m p r e s s e d s c h e d u l e s w h i c h a l l o w th e u s e r to d e te r m i n e p r o g r e s s b y c o m p a r i n g a c tu a l p r o d u c ti v i ty to th e p r o j e c t s c h e d u l e . M a n y B I M m o d e l s a r e n o t a b l e
to s to r e i n f o r m a ti o n b e y o n d w h a t th e b u i l d i n g l o o k s l i k e a n d a s s u c h d o n o t a l l o w th e u s e r to s to r e i n f o o n th e c o n s tr u c ti o n
p r o c e s s . V I C O C o n tr o l a l l o w s i n te g r a te d c o n s tr u c ti o n o f th e w h o l e p r o j e c t a n d a l l o w s th e u s e r to l i n k d u r a ti o n a n d c o s t i n -
COLLABORATE
BIG BIMBang-- EnterpriseBIMandBIG Data-- SharingData, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls
BIG BIMBang-- EnterpriseBIMandBIG Data-- SharingData, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls
BIG BIMBang-- EnterpriseBIMandBIG Data-- SharingData, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls
Leadership Change
Capacity
100
0
0
CHANGE READINESS
MATRIX
Ready for
Learning
Ready for
Change
Ready for
Resistanc
e
Ready for
Frustratio
n
(U)Studies written
by, or commissioned
by, utilities
(PUC)Studies
written by, or
commissioned by,
public utilities
commissions
O PUC O
O PUC
(O)Studies written
by, or commissioned
by, non-utility
SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Rooftop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey
Hallock, Frontier Group
A Comparison of Cost-Benefit
Analyses of Solar Energy by Study
and Category
SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Rooftop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey
Hallock, Frontier Group
Luke Mills, Joseph Byrne, Clean Energy Investment: Q4 2015 Factpack, January 2016, Bloomberg
600
Solar (PV)
500
400
300
200
100
Wind
0
-100
2000 2014
http://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-cost-decreases-to-ensure-strong-demand-in-2016-and-beyond-
http://energy.gov/eere/articles/unlocking-our-nation-s-win
d-
http://energy.gov/articles/new-interactive-map-shows-big-potential-america-s-wind-ener
150
100
100
12600% growth
since 2000
2300% growth
since 2000
300
Solar (PV) price
60
40
200
100
80
20
Wind deployment
300
50
0
400
86% decline
since 2000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Cost of electricity
[$/MWh]
200
250
Wind cost
200
150
100
50
0
35% decline
since 2000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
200
150
100 + Health impacts
Direct cost
50
0
Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015
http://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/12-key-ch
arts-demonstrating-positive-feedback-
250
Solar (PV)
200
+ Health impacts
Direct cost
150
100
50
0
http://repowering.org
REPOWERmap
http://repowering.org
CHINA SOLAR
Between 2000 and
2012, Chinas solar
energy output
increased from 3 MW
to 21,000 MW. And its
solar output increased
by 67 % between 2013
and 2014 alone.
CHINA WIND
between 1997 and
2014 China's wind
energy became the
nation's 3rd-largest
power source: in less
than 15 years, wind
http://www.power-technology.com/features/featurechinas-energy-revolution-4643231/
production
grew from
11 August
Blue bars are for historical data and an International Energy Agency projection to 2030 (ref. 6). The green bars represent results from our
optimization model (the values are the average of the three years of simulations). The coal scenario is identical to the HRLG scenario,
but with the inclusion of coal plants. The red diamonds represent the levelized cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to consumers in
2013US$. The percentages show the change of CO2 emissions relative to 1990 levels.
Energy Storage
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/01/energy-storage-set-for-record-yearin-2016.html?cmpid=renewablesolar01232016&eid=289707094&bid=
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Apple-Tackles-Supply-Chain-Emissions-with-2GW-Clean-Energy-Initiati
ve-inCh , Julia Pyper, October 22, 2015;
74
%
26
%
$4.00
$3.60
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.27
$2.00
$1.68
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
Residential
Modules
DC Electrical BOS
Direct Labor
Commercial
Utility
Inverters and AC Subsystem
Structural BOS
Engineering and PII
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
Next Wave of U.S. Solar, Shayle Kann, Sr VP, Research, Greentech Media, U.S. Solar Market
$200
$175
$150
$125($/MWh)
PPA Price
$100
$75
$50
$25
$0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
GTM, Shayle Kann, The Evolution of the U.S. Solar Market, April 2015
2014
2015
CHINA
INDIA
India has announced plans to set up 100 GW of
solar power over 5 years and 175 GW by 2020; a
target double the target set by China between
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/11/14/trina-solar-open-solar-pv-module-manufacturing-hub-i
2011 and 2015.
ndia
CHILE
AFRICA
Key Fact
The avoided CO2 emissions from wind energy today help offset the equivalent of more
than 24 million passenger vehicles
eere.energy.gov
The Wind Vision Study Scenario results in modest increases in electricity cost in the near- and midterm(<1%price increase), but in the longtermelectricity costs savings of 2%are achieved by 2050
13 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office
eere.energy.gov
http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/
efficiency_chart.jpg
Bottom line: unless a PV system is at least 15% efficient, it will not survive in the marketplace.
The cost pressure is high, because PV competes with fossil fuels which are subsidized directly and
indirectly, and because the residential market deals with additional soft costs for permitting,
electricians, inspectors and installers. In the U.S. this typically doubles the cost of the panels.
Bringing down these soft costs would do much more than any potential efficiency gains on the
innovation side of the equation. the industry has been booming for years and still is: prices are
1. Trina Solar
6. First Solar
2. Canadian
7. Yingli Green
Solar
8. SFCE
3. JinkoSolar
9. ReneSola
4. JA Solar
10. SunPower
ovoltaics International,
quarter, 13 Q
edition, December
2015, http://www.pv-tech.org
5. fourth
Hanwha
Corp
th
od has been the steady increase in the size of installed systems, from an
0 to over 6Average
kW in 2013. installed prices of U.S. PV
$16
In s t a lle d P r ic e (2 0 13 $ / W )
$14
systems
in 2000 and 2013, in real $/W
$ 1 3 .3 7
$12
$10
42%
$8
$6
$ 4 .7 7
51%
$4
$2
$0
2 0 0 0 p ric e
M o d u le
In v e r t e r
O t h e r c o s t s 2 0 1 3 p r ic e
ureCharacteristics
1. Averageof
installed
of U.S. PV
system
sin
2000
andGregory
2013,F.in
real $/
Low-Pricedprices
Solar Photovoltaic
Systems
in the
United
States,
Nemet,
Eric OShaughnessy, Ryan Wiser et al, LBNL-1004062, Jan. 2016
Figure 3. Share of systemsin each state that is P10. Gray states have price data but are missingdata
Characteristics of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet,
on other characteristics, so they are dropped fromall other analyses.
Eric OShaughnessy, Ryan Wiser et al, LBNL-1004062, Jan. 2016
Solar PV
Wind
Efficiency/Productivity Gains
GEs Current
GEs start-up
company, Current,
which is backed by
GEs balance sheet,
brings together GEs
LED, Solar, Energy
Storage, and EV
businesses as a onestop shop for early
customers like
Walgreens,
TeraWatt
Initiative
French energy giant Engie has launched a major publicprivate initiative that aims to ensure that 1,000GW of
solar capacity is installed around the world by 2030.
Incoming president and CEO, Isabelle Kocher (pictured
above), isnailing her colors to the mast. Engie is a giant
of a company, with operations in 70 countries and
150,000 employees
The 1,000GW target might be below some of the more
optimistic forecasts for 2030, particularly those by
Greenpeace and others (and it should be noted that
We are offering
lighting, phone
charging, and
increasing
access to a
modern
lifestyle.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/the-off-grid-solar-company-connecting-12000-homes-a-month-
STORAGE
Fitzgerald, Garrett, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve Touati. The Economics of Battery Energy Storage: How
multi-use, customer-sited batteries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain
Institute, September 2015. <<http://www.rmi.org/electricity_battery_value>>
UTILITY SERVICES
Fitzgerald, Garrett, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve Touati. The Economics of Battery Energy Storage: How
multi-use, customer-sited batteries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain
Institute, September 2015. <<http://www.rmi.org/electricity_battery_value>>
CUSTOMER SERVICES
Fitzgerald, Garrett, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve Touati. The Economics of Battery Energy Storage: How
multi-use, customer-sited batteries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain
Institute, September 2015. <<http://www.rmi.org/electricity_battery_value>>
ower levels of industrial production that adversely affect natural gas consumption for power generation
nd in the petrochemical sector. As a result, total gas use in the low-growth case is about 15 Bcfd, or
Natural
Gas
Association
America
that
bout 15 Interstate
percent lower than
the base
case.
Gas use rises toof
roughly
91 Bcfdasserts
by 2035, versus
more
than
billion
mid-stream
gas
pproximately
106
Bcfd in$313
the base
case.10 in
Although
not shown in
theinfrastructure
figure below, liquids(e.g.
market
, gas
pipelines)
be
neededcase,
byand
2035
rowth also
is significantly
lowerwill
in this
low-growth
U.S. refinery runs are down modestly
.
ompared with the base case levels.
U.S. and Canadian GasConsumption (Average Annual Bcfd)
http://movingforward.discoursemedia.org/cost-of-commute-calculator-data
AWEA
2 3 ,3 0 0
5 ,1 1 9
4 ,8 5 4
2 ,7 8 3
2 ,3 1 5
1 ,8 7 1
1 ,4 6 7
1 ,0 5 0
1 ,0 4 2
804
6 ,6 2 5
5 1 ,2 3 0
C u m u la tiv e C a p a c ity
(e n d o f 2 0 1 4 , M W )
C h in a
1 1 4 ,7 6 0
U n ite d Sta te s
6 5 ,8 7 7
G erm an y
3 9 ,2 2 3
In d ia
2 2 ,9 0 4
S p a in
2 2 ,6 6 5
U n it e d K in g d o m
1 2 ,4 1 3
Canada
9 ,6 8 4
Fran ce
9 ,1 7 0
It a ly
8 ,5 5 6
B r a z il
6 ,6 5 2
R e s t o f W o r ld
6 0 ,2 0 8
TO TA L
3 7 2 ,1 1 2
S o u r c e : N a v ig a n t ; A W E A p r o je c t d a t a b a s e f o r U .S . c a p a c it y
Note: Figure only includes the countries with the most installed wind
power capacity at the end of 2014
9
Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in brackets, annual additions in 2014
10
In st a lle d C a p a c it y (M W )
A n n u a l (2 0 1 4 )
T e xa s
1 ,8 1 1
O k la h o m a
648
Io w a
511
M ic h ig a n
368
N e b r a sk a
277
W a s h in g t o n
267
C o lo r a d o
261
N o rth D ako ta
205
In d ia n a
201
C a lif o r n ia
107
M in n e s o t a
48
M a r y la n d
40
N e w M e x ic o
35
N ew Yo rk
26
M o n tan a
20
So u th D a k o ta
20
M a in e
9
O h io
0 .9
M a ssa c h u se tt s
0 .6
R e s t o f U .S .
TO TA L
4 ,8 5 4
C u m u la tiv e (e n d o f 2 0 1 4 )
Te xas
1 4 ,0 9 8
C a lif o r n ia
5 ,9 1 7
Io w a
5 ,6 8 8
O k la h o m a
3 ,7 8 2
I llin o is
3 ,5 6 8
O rego n
3 ,1 5 3
W a s h in g t o n
3 ,0 7 5
M in n e s o t a
3 ,0 3 5
K a n sa s
2 ,9 6 7
C o lo r a d o
2 ,5 9 3
N o rth D a ko ta
1 ,8 8 6
N ew Yo rk
1 ,7 4 8
I n d ia n a
1 ,7 4 5
M ic h ig a n
1 ,5 3 1
W y o m in g
1 ,4 1 0
P e n n s y lv a n ia
1 ,3 4 0
Id a h o
973
N e w M e x ic o
812
N e b rask a
812
So u th D a ko ta
803
R e s t o f U .S .
4 ,9 4 1
A ctu a l (2 0 1 4 )*
Io w a
2 8 .5 %
So u th D a ko ta
2 5 .3 %
K a n sa s
2 1 .7 %
Id a h o
1 8 .3 %
N o rth D ako ta
1 7 .6 %
O k la h o m a
1 6 .9 %
M in n e s o t a
1 5 .9 %
C o lo r a d o
1 3 .6 %
O re go n
1 2 .7 %
T e xa s
9 .0 %
W y o m in g
8 .9 %
M a in e
8 .3 %
N e w M e x ic o
7 .0 %
C a lif o r n ia
7 .0 %
N e b ra sk a
6 .9 %
M o n tan a
6 .5 %
W a s h in g t o n
6 .3 %
H a w a ii
5 .9 %
I llin o is
5 .0 %
V e rm o n t
4 .4 %
R e s t o f U .S .
0 .9 %
TO TA L
TO TA L
6 5 ,8 7 7
* B a s e d o n 2 0 1 4 w i n d a n d t o t a l g e n e r a t i o n b y s t a t e f r o m E I A s E l e c t r ic P o w e r M o n t h l y .
11
4 .4 %
14
E x p o r ts o f W in d - P o w e r e d
G e n e r a tin g S e ts
O t h e r w i n d - r e l a t e d e q u i p m e n t ( e s t .)
W in d g e n e ra to rs (2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 4 )
T o w e rs (e s tim a te d th ro u g h 2 0 1 0 )
W in d -p o w e re d g e n e ra tin g s e ts
4
3
2
1
0
W in d b la d e s a n d h u b s (2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 4 )
B illio n 2 0 1 4 $ U S
U S Im p o r ts :
2006
2457 M W
2007
5253 M W
2008
8362 M W
2009
10005 M W
2010
5216 M W
2011
6820 M W
2012
13131 M W
2013
1087 M W
2014
4854 M W
Figure only includes tracked trade categories; misses other wind-related imports
See full report for the assumptions used to generate this gure
20
8%
1 5 -Y e a r D e b t In te re st R a te (p re -ta x )
6%
4%
1 5 -Y e a r D e b t In te re st R a te (a fte r-ta x )
2%
0%
J a n -0 5
J a n -0 6
J a n -0 7
J a n -0 8
J a n -0 9
J a n -1 0
J a n -1 1
J a n -1 2
J a n -1 3
J a n -1 4
J a n -1 5
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
O n -S ite
40%
30%
P o w e r M a r k e te r
30%
M e r c h a n t/Q u a s i- M e r c h a n t
20%
10%
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
IO U
1999
0%
2 0 1 4 C a p a c ity b y
O ff-T a k e C a te g o r y
M e r c h a n t:
1 ,6 1 3 M W
(3 3 % )
0%
IO U :
2 ,4 9 7 M W
(5 1 % )
POU:
720 M W
(1 5 % )
20%
POU
10%
1998
% o f C u m u l a t i v e In s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y
O n -S ite :
23 M W
(0 .5 % )
28
2 0 1 4 C a p a city Fa cto r (b y p ro je ct v in ta ge )
W e ig h te d A v e ra g e (b y p r o je c t v in ta g e )
In d iv id u a l P ro je c t (b y p r o je c t v in t a ge )
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Sa m p le in c lu d e s 5 9 1 p r o je c ts t o t a lin g 5 8 .5 G W
0%
V in ta g e : 1 9 9 8 -9 9 2 0 0 0 -0 1 2 0 0 2 -0 3 2 0 0 4 -0 5
27
38
28
# p r o je c t s: 2 5
1 ,7 6 0
1 ,9 8 8
3 ,6 5 2
# M W : 921
35
2006
20
1 ,7 0 8
2007
37
5 ,2 8 2
2008
79
8 ,4 9 8
2009
96
9 ,5 7 8
2010
48
4 ,7 3 3
2011
68
5 ,9 1 7
2012
117
1 3 ,5 3 3
2013
8
969
2007 2008
P r o je c t V in ta ge
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
60%
50%
W e igh te d A v e ra ge (b y re gio n )
W e igh te d A v e ra ge (to ta l U .S.)
In d iv id u a l P ro je ct (b y re gio n )
40%
30%
20%
10%
Sa m p le in clu d e s 1 2 4 p ro je cts b u ilt in 2 0 1 2 -1 3 a n d to ta lin g 1 4 .4 G W
0%
39
W e st
3 2 p ro je cts
3 ,9 3 8 M W
N o rth e a st
1 5 p ro je cts
1 ,1 4 7 M W
G re a t La k e s
1 8 p ro je cts
2 ,1 0 9 M W
In te rio r
5 9 p ro je cts
7 ,2 5 3 M W
$100
$80
150 M W
$40
$20
75 M W
J a n -1 5
J a n -1 4
J a n -1 3
J a n -1 2
J a n -1 1
J a n -1 0
J a n -0 9
J a n -0 8
J a n -0 7
J a n -0 6
J a n -0 5
J a n -0 4
J a n -0 3
J a n -0 2
J a n -0 1
J a n -0 0
J a n -9 9
J a n -9 8
J a n -9 7
$0
P P A E x e c u tio n D a te
49
50 M W
$60
J a n -9 6
Le v e lize d P P A P r ic e (2 0 1 4 $ / M W h )
$120
A v e ra ge Le v e lize d P P A P rice (R e a l 2 0 1 4 $ / M W h )
$0
P P A Y e a r: 1 9 9 6 -9 9 2 0 0 0 -0 1 2 0 0 2 -0 3 2 0 0 4 -0 5
10
17
24
30
C o n tr a c ts:
1 ,2 4 9
1 ,3 8 2
2 ,1 9 0
M W : 553
50
N a tio n w id e
In t e r io r
G re a t La k e s
W e st
N o rth e a st
2006
30
2 ,3 1 1
2007
26
1 ,7 8 1
2008
39
3 ,4 6 5
2009
49
4 ,0 4 8
2010
48
4 ,6 4 2
2011
42
4 ,5 7 2
2012
14
985
2013
26
3 ,6 7 4
2014
13
1 ,7 6 8
W in d p ro je c t sa m p le in c lu d e s p ro je c ts
w ith P P A s sign e d fro m 2 0 0 3 -2 0 1 4
90
80
2014 $/ M W h
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
N a tio n w id e W h o le sa le P o w e r P ric e R a n ge (b y ca le n d a r y e a r)
G e n e ra tio n -W e igh te d A v e ra ge Le v e lize d W in d P P A P rice (b y y e a r o f P P A e x e cu tio n )
P P A y e a r: 2 0 0 3
C o n tra cts: 9
M W : 570
51
2004
13
547
2005
17
1 ,6 4 3
2006
30
2 ,3 1 1
2007
26
1 ,7 8 1
2008
39
3 ,4 6 5
2009
49
4 ,0 4 8
2010
48
4 ,6 4 2
2011
42
4 ,5 7 2
2012
14
985
2013
26
3 ,6 7 4
2014
13
1 ,7 6 8
Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes across the U.S.
Price comparison shown here is far from perfect see full report for caveats
2014 $/ M W h
A v e ra g e 2 0 1 4 W h o le sa le P o w e r P ric e R a n g e
90
In d iv id u a l P ro je c t Le v e lize d W in d P P A P ric e
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
G re a t La k e s
1 0 p ro je cts
755 M W
N o rth e a st
1 p ro je c t
69 M W
W e st
5 p ro je c ts
329 M W
T o ta l U S
5 3 p r o je cts
6 ,4 2 7 M W
R a n ge o f A E O 1 5 ga s p ric e p ro je c tio n s
A E O 1 5 re fe re n c e ca se ga s p ric e p ro je ctio n
W in d 2 0 1 2 P P A e x e c u tio n (9 8 5 M W , 1 4 c o n tra cts)
W in d 2 0 1 3 P P A e x e c u tio n (3 ,6 7 4 M W , 2 6 c o n tra c ts)
W in d 2 0 1 4 P P A e x e c u tio n (1 ,7 6 8 M W , 1 3 c o n tra c ts)
90
2014 $/ M W h
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2040
2039
2038
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Price comparison shown here is far from perfect see full report for caveats
53
M T: 1 5 % b y 2 0 1 5
M N : 2 6 .5 % b y 2 0 2 5
X c e l: 3 1 . 5 % b y 2 0 2 0
W I: 1 0 % b y 2 0 1 5
IA : 1 0 5 M W b y 1 9 9 9
IL : 2 5 % b y 2 0 2 5
MO: 15% by 2021
C O : 3 0 % b y 2 0 2 0 ( IO U s )
2 0 % b y 2 0 2 0 (c o -o p s )
1 0 % b y 2 0 2 0 ( m u n is )
57
In t e g r a tio n C o s t ( $ /M W h )
Integrating wind
energy into
power systems
is manageable,
but not free of
additional costs
$16
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
W in d P e n e t r a t io n ( C a p a c it y B a s is )
60%
70%
A P S (2 0 0 7 )
A v is ta ( 2 0 0 7 )
B P A (2 0 0 9 ) [a ]
B P A (2 0 1 1 ) [a ]
B P A (2 0 1 3 )
C A R P S (2 0 0 6 ) [b ]
E R C O T (2 0 1 2 )
E W IT S ( 2 0 1 0 )
Id a h o P o w e r (2 0 0 7 )
Id a h o P o w e r (2 0 1 2 )
M N -M IS O (2 0 0 6 ) [c ]
N e b ra s k a (2 0 1 0 )
N o r th W e s te r n ( 2 0 1 2 )
P a c ific o r p ( 2 0 0 5 )
P a c ific o r p ( 2 0 0 7 )
P a c ifiC o r p ( 2 0 1 0 )
P a c ifiC o r p ( 2 0 1 2 )
P a c ifC o r p ( 2 0 1 4 )
P o rtla n d G E (2 0 1 1 )
P o rtla n d G E (2 0 1 3 )
P u g e t S o u n d E n e rg y (2 0 0 7 )
S P P -S E R C (2 0 1 1 )
W e E n e r g ie s ( 2 0 0 3 )
X c e l- M N D O C ( 2 0 0 4 )
X c e l- P S C o ( 2 0 0 6 )
X c e l- P S C o ( 2 0 0 8 )
X c e l- P S C o ( 2 0 1 1 ) [d ]
X c e l- U W IG ( 2 0 0 3 )
Notes: Because methods vary and a consistent set of operational impacts has not been
included in each study, results from the different analyses of integration costs are not fully
comparable. There has been some recent literature questioning the methods used to estimate
wind integration costs and the ability to disentangle those costs explicitly, while also highlighting
the fact that other generating options also impose integration challenges and costs.
59
Thisresearchwassupportedby fundingfromthe
U.S. Department of EnergysSunShot Initiative.
CA 59%
2)
AZ 17%
3)
NV 5%
4)
NM 4%
5)
TX 3%
4
C a p a c ity -W e igh te d A v e r a ge (D C )
M e d ia n (D C )
In d iv id u a l P ro je c ts (D C )
C a p a c ity -W e igh te d A v e r a ge (A C )
M e d ia n (A C )
In d iv id u a l P ro je c ts (A C )
9
8
7
6
230MW
350MW
155MW
586MW
5
4
3
2
1
0
2 0 0 7 -2 0 0 9
n =5 (7 5 M W -A C )
2010
n =1 0 (1 7 5 M W -A C )
2011
n =2 9 (4 2 8 M W -A C )
2012
2013
2014
n =3 8 (8 7 5 M W -A C ) n =3 3 (1 ,2 6 9 M W -A C ) n =5 5 (3 ,0 5 2 M W -A C )
Installed prices are shown here in both DC and AC terms, but because AC is more relevant to the utility
sector, all metrics used in the rest of this slide deck are expressed solely in AC terms
The lowest 20th percentile fell from $3.2/WAC in 2013 to $2.3/WAC in 2014
Capacity-weighted average prices were pushed higher in 2014 by several very large projects that had
been under construction for several years (but only entered our sample in 2014, once complete)
This sample is backward-looking and may not reflect the price of projects built in 2015/2016
8
F ix e d -T ilt c -Si
F ix e d -T ilt T h in -Film
CPV
8
7
T r a c k in g c -Si
T r a c k in g T h in -Film
A ll P V
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
M a r k e r s r e p r e s e n t m e d ia n s, w it h 2 0 t h a n d 8 0 t h p e r c e n t ile s .
2 0 0 7 -2 0 0 9
n =5 (7 5 M W -A C )
2010
n =1 0 (1 7 5 M W -A C )
2011
n =2 9 (4 2 8 M W -A C )
2012
n =3 8 (8 7 5 M W -A C )
2013
2014
n =3 3 (1 ,2 6 9 M W -A C ) n =5 5 (3 ,0 5 2 M W -A C )
Pricing has converged among the various mounting/module configurations over time
Not surprisingly, tracking appears to be slightly more expensive than fixed-tilt (at least for c-Si)
Large 80/20 range of fixed-tilt thin-film in 2014 reflects several mega-projects with high prices
The two CPV projects built in 2011 and 2012 were priced similar to PV at the time
9
Sy ste m C o st o r P ric e (2 0 1 4 $ / W -D C )
2 .3 7
0 .1 4
2 .2 5
0 .4 6
0 .8 2
0 .5 2
$ 1 .5
$ 1 .0
$ 0 .5
0 .5 8
1 .9 9
1 .9 9
0 .3 3
0 .3 6
0 .3 4
1 .8 8
0 .3 6
0 .2 6
0 .5 9
0 .4 3
0 .4 8
0 .1 8
0 .1 3
0 .1 3
0 .2 7
0 .1 1
0 .6 6
0 .7 1
0 .7 1
0 .6 6
0 .3 7
0 .1 8
0 .7 2
$ 0 .0
L B N L 2 0 1 4 2 5 M W - D C S in g le A x is T r a c k in g P r o j e c t P r ic e in
So u th w e st
M o d u le s
In v e rte r
N R E L 2 0 1 4 2 0 M W - D C S in g le - N R E L 2 0 1 4 1 0 0 M W - D C S in g le - B N E F Q 4 2 0 1 4 U t ilit y P r o j e c t in
A x is T r a c k in g P r o j e c t C o s t in A x is T r a c k in g P r o je c t C o s t (U .S . C a lif o r n ia ( in c l. D e v e lo p e r
S o u t h w e s t w it h U n io n L a b o r
N a t io n a l A v e r a g e )
M a r g in s )
G T M H 2 2 0 1 4 1 0 M W -D C
S in g le - A x is T r a c k in g P r o je c t
C o s t in C a lif o r n ia (e x c l.
D e v e lo p m e n t )
D e sign , E P C , La b o r, P II
O th e r
Prices presented here in DC terms, to be consistent with how presented by NREL, BNEF, GTM
Empirical LBNL project (far left) is most-expensive at $2.37/WDC, despite reporting among the lowest module costs
($0.66/WDC)
Largest discrepancy is in EPC category perhaps reflecting forward-looking modeling vs. backward-looking empirical
data (sample LBNL project achieved commercial operation in 2014)
There are also discrepancies in terms of what costs are captured by the various modeled estimates relative to the
empirical data (e.g., development costs, financing costs)
There is fairly substantial variation even among the various bottom-up modeled estimates
11
30%
25%
20%
AC
th a t c a m e o n lin e fro m 2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 3
Fix e d -T ilt
So la r re so u rc e o f <4 .7 5 k W h / m 2 / d a y
Fix e d -T ilt
T ra c k in g
So la r re so u rc e o f 4 .7 5 -5 .5 k W h / m 2 / d a y
Fix e d -T ilt
1 3 p ro je c ts
1 .2 -1 .2 7 5 4 6 5 M W
1 5 p ro je cts
ILR <1 .2 1 8 2 M W
8 p ro je c ts
ILR 1 .2 7 5 6 4 8 M W
9 p ro je c ts
1 .2 -1 .2 7 5 4 9 2 M W
2 p ro je c ts
19 M W
ILR <1 .2
6 p ro je c ts
ILR 1 .2 7 5 1 5 0 M W
1 p ro je c t
1 .2 -1 .2 7 5 2 6 M W
9 p ro je c ts
ILR <1 .2 1 2 2 M W
8 p ro je c ts
ILR 1 .2 7 5 1 2 5 M W
5 p ro je c ts
1 .2 -1 .2 7 5 1 0 0 M W
4 p ro je c ts
T ra c k in g
ILR <1 .2 5 9 M W
ILR 1 .2 7 5
3 p ro je c ts
1 .2 -1 .2 7 5 3 6 M W
4 p ro je c ts
ILR <1 .2 6 7 M W
6 p ro je cts
ILR 1 .2 7 5 8 9 M W
1 0 p ro je c ts
89 M W
0%
1 .2 -1 .2 7 5
5%
1 1 p ro je c ts
10%
1 4 p r o je c ts
377 M W
Sa m p le in c lu d e s 1 2 8 p ro je c ts to ta lin g 3 ,2 0 1 M W
ILR 1 .2 7 5
15%
ILR <1 .2 1 5 6 M W
C u m u la tiv e N e t C a p a c ity Fa c to r
35%
T ra ck in g
So la r r e so u rc e o f 5 .5 k W h / m 2 / d a y
300
C P V (3 5 M W , 2 co n tra cts )
250
M ix o f P V / C P V (7 M W , 1 c o n tr a c t)
550 M W
C SP (1 ,3 4 2 M W , 5 co n t ra c ts)
200
150
210
MW
100
J a n -1 5
J a n -1 3
J a n -1 2
J a n -1 1
J a n -1 0
J a n -0 9
J a n -0 8
J a n -0 7
J a n -1 4
150 M W
P P A E x e c u tio n D a te
G e n e ra tio n -W e igh te d A v e ra ge
250
In d iv id u a l C o n tra c t
200
150
100
50
0
P P A Ye ar: 2 0 0 6
C o n tra c ts: 1
MW: 7
50
300
Le v e lize d P P A P ric e (R e a l 2 0 1 4 $ / M W h )
P V (7 ,2 3 4 M W , 1 0 0 c o n tra c ts)
32 M W
J a n -0 6
Le v e lize d P P A P ric e (R e a l 2 0 1 4 $ / M W h )
2007
1
5
2008
3
770
2009
16
1 ,7 3 8
2010
29
1 ,9 5 6
2011
12
1 ,4 5 7
2012
10
861
2013
15
492
2014
9
449
2015
12
885
250
200
2 0 0 6 (7 M W , 1 P P A )
2007
(5 M W , 1 P P A )
2 0 0 9 (9 5 6 M W , 1 3 P P A s)
2 0 0 8 (7 7 0 M W , 3 P P A s)
150
2 0 1 0 (1 ,6 7 6 M W , 2 8 P P A s)
100
2 0 1 1 (1 ,1 7 7 M W , 1 1 P P A s)
2 0 1 3 (4 9 2 M W , 1 5 P P A s)
50
2 0 1 2 (8 6 1 M W , 1 0 P P A s)
2 0 1 4 (4 4 9 M W , 9 P P A s)
2 0 1 5 (8 8 5 M W , 1 2 P P A s)
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
0
2006
G e n -W e igh te d A v e r a ge P P A P r ic e (2 0 1 4 $ / M W h )
80
70
50
40
30
2040
2039
2038
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2017
2016
2019
10
2018
20
2015
2014 $/ M W h
60
NV Energy:
200 MW renewable RFP received 2,537 MW response (90%of which was PV)
Two 100 MW winners ~$40/MWh levelized; others reportedly at similar prices
Acrossthe South:
Recently announced PPAs in Alabama ($61/MWh), Arkansas (~$50/MWh), Georgia
(~$65/MWh), Florida ($70/MWh)
19
T o ta l in q u e u e a t e n d o f 2 0 1 4
N a m e p la te C a p a city (G W )
N a m e p la te So la r C a p a c ity (G W )
20
15
10
150
100
50
0
G as
W in d
So la r
N u cle a r
Co al
O th e r
0
C a lifo rn ia
So u th w e st
Texas
(N V , A Z, U T , C O , N M )
So u th e a st
C e n tra l
N o rth e a st
N o rth w e st
44.6 GW of solar was in the queues at the end of 2014 (up from 39.5 GW at end of 2013): more than 5
timesthe installed solar capacity in our project population at the end of 2014
Solar was in third place in the queues, behind natural gas and wind
Expandingmarket: Texas and Southeast had more new entrants than California or Southwest in 2014;
other three regions saw an unprecedented influx of new solar capacity in 2014 as well
Not all of thiscapacity will be built! (but much of what is will likely be built prior to 2017)
21
Nature,
global
clusters
networks
Nature 2015
Nature 2015
Leadership Change
Capacity
100
0
0
CHANGE READINESS
MATRIX
100 PERCENT
SOLAR/WIND/EFF
Ready for
Learning
Ready for
Change
Ready for
Resistanc
e
Ready for
Frustratio
n
http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/109019/chapters/The-Organizational-Change-Readiness-
Leadership Change
Capacity
100
0
0
CHANGE READINESS
MATRIX
Ready for
Learning
Ready for
Change
Ready for
Resistanc
e
Ready for
Frustratio
n
Leadership Change
Capacity
100
0
0
CHANGE READINESS
MATRIX
Ready for
Learning
Ready for
Change
Ready for
Resistanc
e
Ready for
Frustratio
n
CITIZEN DEMOCRACY
VS
PLUTOCRATIC OLIGARCHY
Bicycle
2500 miles per gallon
(mpg)
(in kilocalories of food)
Construction Tools
Disruption Tools