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Why probability?
What is statistics?
The science of using data to build models that lead
to better decisions that add value to individuals,
to companies, to institutions.
Basic probability
Objectives
Be able to define probability
Be able to define sample space, sample points and evnet
Be able to determine the subsets of sample space
Be able to calculate probability of different events
Important notes
The probability of an event can only be between 0 and 1
(and can also be written as a percentage)
Important notes
The probability of an event can only be between 0 and 1
(and can also be written as a percentage)
The probability of event A is often written as P(A)
If P(A) > P(B) then event A has a higher chance of
occurring than event B
If P(A) = P(B) then events A and B are equally likely to
occur
Experiment or Trial
An action where the result is uncertain.
Sample Space
All the possible outcomes of an experiment
Sample Point
Just one of the possible outcomes
Event
A single result of an experiment
Determination of
probability
You are given two dice to roll. One is black with six sides;
the other is white with four sides.
For a given roll, what is the probability you roll the
same number on each die?
Example 1
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Rock
Your
friends
choice
Rock
Rock
Paper
Rock
Scissors
Paper
Rock
Paper
Paper
Paper
Scissors
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Rock
Your
friends
choice
Rock
Rock
Paper
Rock
Scissors
Paper
Rock
Paper
Paper
Paper
Scissors
Example 2
You and your friend are playing a game where you flip a
coin and roll a fair four-sided die. You win if the coin is
heads and the die lands on an odd number. Your friend
wins if the coin is tails and the die lands on an even
number. You tie if the coin is heads and the die is even
or if the coin is tails and the die is odd. All the possible
outcomes of the game are listed below.
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Heads
Your
friends
choice
1
Heads
Heads
Heads
Tails
Tails
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Heads
Your
friends
choice
1
Heads
Heads
Heads
Tails
Tails
Example 3
You and your friend are playing a game where you flip a
coin and roll a fair four-sided die. You win if the coin is
heads and the die lands on an odd number. Your friend
wins if the coin is tails and the die lands on an even
number. You tie if the coin is heads and the die is even
or if the coin is tails and the die is odd. All the possible
outcomes of the game are listed below.
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Heads
Your
friends
choice
1
Heads
Heads
Heads
Tails
Tails
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Heads
Your
friends
choice
1
Heads
Heads
Heads
Tails
Tails
Example 4
Joe and Maxine are playing a game where they flip a fair
coin four times and try to predict the outcomes. Joe
thinks that the probability of getting exactly two heads
in the four flips is greater than the probability of getting
heads on both the first and second flips. Maxine
disagrees. She thinks that the two probabilities are
equal.
HHHH
THHH
HTHH
HHTH
HHHT
TTTT
THHH
THTT
TTHT
TTTH
HHTT
HTHT
HTTH
TTHH
THTH
THHT
HHHH
THHH
HTHH
HHTH
HHHT
TTTT
THHH
THTT
TTHT
TTTH
HHTT
HTHT
HTTH
TTHH
THTH
THHT
Example 5
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Fire
Your
friends
choice
Water
Fire
Fire
Fire
Sponge
Water
Fire
Water
Sponge
Water
Water
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Fire
Your
friends
choice
Water
Fire
Fire
Fire
Sponge
Water
Fire
Water
Sponge
Water
Water
Simple probability
Example 1
Mrs. Avery is going to randomly select one student from
her class to read a poem out loud. There are15boys
and13girls in her class.
What isP(Boy)?
Example 3
Giovanna owns a farm. She is going to randomly select
one animal to present at the state fair. She
has6pigs,7chickens, and10cows.
What is
Example 4
Cam can't figure out what to eat. He is going to
randomly select a piece of fruit from his pantry. There
are4apples and5bananas in his pantry.
What is the
Example 5
Bruce is going to call one person from his contacts at
random. He has25total contacts.20 of those contacts
are from his neighborhood.
What is
(callapersonnotfromhisneighborhood)?