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Management
Chapter 3
Project Management
PowerPoint presentation to accompany
Heizer/Render
Principles of Operations Management, 6e
Operations Management, 8e
2006
Prentice
Hall, Inc. Hall, Inc.
2006
Prentice
31
Examples of Projects
Building Construction
Research Project
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
32
Management of Projects
Planning - goal setting, defining the
project, team organization
Scheduling - relates people, money,
and supplies to specific activities
and activities to each other
Controlling - monitors resources,
costs, quality, and budgets; revises
plans and shifts resources to meet
time and cost demands
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
33
The Role of
the Project Manager
Highly visible
Responsible for making sure that:
All necessary activities are finished in order
and on time
The project comes in within budget
The project meets quality goals
The people assigned to the project receive
motivation, direction, and information
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
34
The Role of
the Project Manager
Highly visible
Project
managers
Responsible for making
sure
that: should be:
Good coaches
All necessary activities are finished in order
Good communicators
and on time
in
Able
to organize
The project comes
within
budget activities
from a variety of disciplines
The project meets quality goals
The people assigned to the project receive
motivation, direction, and information
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
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36
Activity
1.0
1.1
Development of GUIs
1.2
1.21
1.22
1.23
1.231
Level
37
Project Scheduling
Identifying precedence
relationships
Sequencing activities
Determining activity times & costs
Estimating material and worker
requirements
Determining critical activities
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
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39
Project Management
Techniques
Gantt chart
Critical Path Method
(CPM)
Program Evaluation
and Review
Technique (PERT)
3 10
Time
A M J
Design
Prototype
Test
Revise
Production
3 11
Figure 3.4
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Deplaning
Baggage claim
Container offload
Pumping
Engine injection water
Container offload
Main cabin door
Aft cabin door
Aft, center, forward
Loading
First-class section
Economy section
Container/bulk loading
Galley/cabin check
Receive passengers
Aircraft check
Loading
Boarding
15
30
Minutes
45
60
3 12
3 13
3 14
3 15
B
A
(b)
C
B
B
(c)
Figure 3.5
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Activity
Meaning
A comes before
B, which comes
before C
A and B must both
be completed
before C can start
B and C cannot
begin until A is
completed
Activity on
Arrow (AOA)
A
A
B
C
B
C
3 16
AON Example
Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing's
Activities and Predecessors
Activity
A
Description
Build internal components
Immediate
Predecessors
A, B
D, E
F, G
Table 3.1
3 17
Activity A
(Build Internal Components)
Activity B
(Modify Roof and Floor)
Start
Start
Activity
Figure 3.6
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 18
Start
Activities A and B
Precede Activity D
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Figure 3.7
3 19
C
E
Start
H
G
Figure 3.8
3 20
3 21
Description
Time (weeks)
Build internal components
2
Modify roof and floor
3
Construct collection stack
2
Pour concrete and install frame
4
Build high-temperature burner
4
Install pollution control system
3
Install air pollution device
5
Inspect and test
2
Total Time (weeks)
25
Table 3.2
3 22
Earliest
Start
ES
EF
Latest
Start
LS
LF
Figure 3.10
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Earliest
Finish
Latest
Finish
Activity Duration
3 24
Forward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forward
Earliest Start Time Rule:
If an activity has only one immediate
predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the
predecessor
If an activity has multiple immediate
predecessors, its ES is the maximum of
all the EF values of its predecessors
ES = Max (EF of all immediate predecessors)
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 25
Forward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forward
Earliest Finish Time Rule:
The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity
is the sum of its earliest start time (ES)
and its activity time
EF = ES + Activity time
3 26
EF = ES + Activity time
0
Start
3 27
Start
EF of A =
ES of A + 2
3 28
A
2
Start
ES
of B
EF of B =
ES of B + 3
3
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
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2
0
Start
0
0
3 30
2
0
Start
= Max (2, 3)
D
3
B
3
4
3 31
2
0
Start
0
0
B
3
3 32
2
0
Start
13
4
0
B
3
D
4
15
2
8
13
5
Figure 3.11
3 33
Backward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwards
Latest Finish Time Rule:
If an activity is an immediate predecessor
for just a single activity, its LF equals the
LS of the activity that immediately follows
it
If an activity is an immediate predecessor
to more than one activity, its LF is the
minimum of all LS values of all activities
that immediately follow it
LF = Min (LS of all immediate following activities)
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 34
Backward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwards
Latest Start Time Rule:
The latest start time (LS) of an activity is
the difference of its latest finish time (LF)
and its activity time
LS = LF Activity time
3 35
2
0
Start
C
2
13
13
4
0
B
3
3
4
Figure 3.12
LS =3 LF
D Activity time
G
7
8
H
2
15
15
13
LF = EF
of Project
3 36
2
0
Start
10
F
3
7
13
8 of
LF =4 Min(LS
following activity)
13
13
B
3
D
4
H
2
15
15
13
Figure 3.12
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 37
2
0
Start
C
2
10
4
4
0
0
B
3
D
4
E
4
F
3
7
13
13
13
8
8
G
5
H
2
15
15
13
13
Figure 3.12
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 38
Start
A
2
C
2
10
0
1
B
3
D
4
E
4
F
3
7
13
13
13
G
5
H
2
15
15
13
13
Figure 3.12
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 39
or
Slack = LF EF
3 40
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
0
0
2
3
4
4
8
13
2
3
4
7
8
7
13
15
Latest
Start
LS
Latest
Finish
LF
Slack
LS ES
On
Critical
Path
0
1
2
4
4
10
8
13
2
4
4
8
8
13
13
15
0
1
0
1
0
6
0
0
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Table 3.3
3 41
Start
A
2
C
2
10
0
1
B
3
D
4
E
4
F
3
7
13
13
13
G
5
H
2
15
15
13
13
Figure 3.13
3 42
3 43
3 44
ES EF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper
1
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build hightemperature burner
F Install pollution
control system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 45
LS LF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper
1
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build hightemperature burner
F Install pollution
control system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 46
3 47
3 48
Expected time:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Variance of times:
v = [(b a)/6]2
3 49
Probability
Expected time:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Variance of times:
Probability of
v = [(b a)/6]2 Probability
1 in 100 of
< a occurring
of 1 in 100 of
> b occurring
Activity
Time
Optimistic
Time (a)
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Most Likely
Time (m)
Pessimistic
Time (b)
3 50
Computing Variance
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Optimistic
Most
Likely
Pessimistic
Expected
Time
Variance
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
[(b a)/6]2
1
2
1
2
1
1
3
1
2
3
2
4
4
2
4
2
3
4
3
6
7
9
11
3
2
3
2
4
4
3
5
2
.11
.11
.11
.44
1.00
1.78
1.78
.11
Table 3.4
3 51
Probability of Project
Completion
Project variance is computed by
summing the variances of critical
activities
p2 = Project variance
= (variances of activities
on critical path)
3 52
Probability of Project
Completion
Project variance is computed by
summing the variances of critical
Project variance
activities
Project variance
3.11 = 1.76 weeks
3 53
Probability of Project
Completion
PERT makes two more assumptions:
Total project completion times follow a
normal probability distribution
Activity times are statistically
independent
3 54
Probability of Project
Completion
Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks
15 Weeks
Figure 3.15
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Probability of Project
Completion
What is the probability this project can
be completed on or before the 16 week
deadline?
Z = due expected date / p
date
of completion
Probability of Project
Completion
From Appendix I
What is the probability
can
.00
.01 this project
.07
.08
be completed
on or
before the
16 week
.1 .50000
.50399
.52790
.53188
deadline?
.2 .53983 .54380
.56749 .57142
.5
.6
.72575
.72907
= (16 wks
.74857
.75175
)/1.76
= (16 wks 15 wks
= 0.57
of completion
Probability of Project
Completion
Probability
(T 16 weeks)
is 71.57%
15
Weeks
16
Weeks
Time
Figure 3.16
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 58
Determining Project
Completion Time
Probability
of 0.99
Probability
of 0.01
From Appendix I
Figure 3.17
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
2.33 Standard
deviations
2.33
3 59
3 60
3 61
3 62
Crash cost =
(Normal time Crash time)
per period
2. Using current activity times, find the
critical path and identify the critical
activities
3 63
3 64
3 65
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
2
3
2
4
4
3
5
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
Cost ($)
Crash Cost Critical
Normal
Crash Per Wk ($) Path?
22,000
30,000
26,000
48,000
56,000
30,000
80,000
16,000
22,750
34,000
27,000
49,000
58,000
30,500
84,500
19,000
750
2,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
500
1,500
3,000
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Table 3.5
3 66
Crash
Crash Cost Normal Cost
Crash Cost/Wk = Normal Time Crash Time
$34,000
$33,000
$34,000 $30,000
31
$4,000
=
= $2,000/Wk
2 Wks
Crash
Cost $32,000
$31,000
$30,000
Normal
Cost
Figure 3.18
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Normal
|
1
Crash Time
|
2
|
3
Normal Time
Time (Weeks)
3 67
Start
A
2
Slack = 0
10
Slack = 0
4
4
0
1
B
3
Slack = 1
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
D
4
7
8
Slack = 1
E
4
F
3
7
13
Slack = 6
13
Slack = 0
13
8
8
G
5
13
H
2
15
15
Slack = 0
13
Slack = 0
Figure 3.19
3 68
Advantages of PERT/CPM
1. Especially useful when scheduling and
controlling large projects
2. Straightforward concept and not
mathematically complex
3. Graphical networks help to perceive
relationships among project activities
4. Critical path and slack time analyses help
pinpoint activities that need to be closely
watched
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 69
Advantages of PERT/CPM
5. Project documentation and graphics
point out who is responsible for various
activities
6. Applicable to a wide variety of projects
7. Useful in monitoring not only schedules
but costs as well
3 70
Limitations of PERT/CPM
1. Project activities have to be clearly
defined, independent, and stable in their
relationships
2. Precedence relationships must be
specified and networked together
3. Time estimates tend to be subjective and
are subject to fudging by managers
4. There is an inherent danger of too much
emphasis being placed on the longest, or
critical, path
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 71
Ethical Issues
Bid rigging divulging confidential information
to give some bidders an unfair advantage
Low balling contractors try to buy the
project by bidding low and hope to renegotiate
or cut corners
Bribery particularly on international projects
Expense account padding
Use of substandard materials
Compromising health and safety standards
Withholding needed information
Failure to admit project failure at close
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3 72
Program 3.1
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Program 3.2
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Program 3.3
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Program 3.4
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3 76
Program 3.5
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3 77
Program 3.6
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
3 78
Program 3.7
3 79