Risco Poltico

Aula 1
Kurt von Mettenheim
Cincia Poltica
CGAE
EAESP-FGV

Global View, Local Knowledge

Risco Poltico:
S & P: EUA downgrade, 2011
United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising
Debt Burden; Outlook Negative, 5-Aug-2011
We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from
'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.
The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the
Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to
stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.
More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and
predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a
time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we
assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
Standard & Poors Metodologia de Anlise de Risco Soberano:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDTType&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename
%3DCriteriaGovernmentsSovereignsSovereignGovernmentRatingMethodologyAndAssumptions.pdf&blobheadername2=ContentDisposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=contenttype&blobwhere=1243943646614&blobheadervalue3=UTF-8

Estrutura da Aula

1)

Definio e introduo de Risco Poltico:

Visita: www.PRI.com (political risk insurance center of World
Bank)

2) Discusso de Produtos e Servios Estrangeiros

Problema = Anlise Formal & cdigos mestre
Soluo = contexto e informao local
Exemplos:
EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit)
PRS (Political Risk Services)
Multinational Strategies Inc.
Oxford Analytica (e outras firmas...)
3) Discusso de Produtos e Servios Brasileiros
Relatrios de Bancos
Carta Poltica
Gvprev / FGV Brazil Forecast

Risco Poltico
Definio e Caractersticas
Political Risk = Exposure and losses arising
from:
a) Governments (political structure);
b) Representatives (authority);
c) Reaction of the population to the government
(legitimacy);
d) Society (culture, social phenomena).
Para mais informao:
World Bank Multilateral Investment Guarantee
Agency, Political Risk Center
http://www.pri-center.com

Political Risks:

1) Firm Specific vs Country Specific

2) Government vs Instability
Government Risks

Instability Risks

Firm-Specific Risks

Discriminatory regulations
"Creeping" expropriation
Breach of contract

Sabotage
Kidnappings
Firm-specific boycotts

Country-Level Risks

Mass nationalizations
Regulatory changes
Currency inconvertibility

Mass labor strikes

Urban rioting
Civil wars

Source: Robert Egge

Leitura: Coltro,
Gesto de Risco Poltico

PORQUE RISCO POLTICO

DIFERENTE DE OUTROS RISCOS?
Pergunta:
Qual a relao entre o N dos fenmenos a serem explicados e
o desvio padro?

Tipo de Risco por Tipo de

Reivindicao

Fonte: Coltro, Gesto de Risco Poltico, p. 2

Fonte: Coltro, Gesto de Risco Poltico, p. 3

Riscos Macro e Micro

Memria e reputao

PERGUNTA: DEPOIS DO REPSOL VEM

JOGOS DE AZAR NA ARGENTINA?
CLARIN, 7 de Junho de 2012: SIM

Produtos e servios de anlise

de risco poltico e social

Anlises do processo poltico e social so

desenvolvidas,
sobretudo,
para
empresas
multinacionais, constituindo-se em instrumentos
importantes de tomada de deciso quanto ao
investimento externo dentro do sistema mundial,
conceito sobre o qual nos debruaremos ainda nesta
unidade.
Uma breve descrio das medidas usadas na anlise
de risco poltico permite a concluso de que
categorias formais, em geral, perdem para uma
anlise mais contextual e mais aberto mais enfocada
nas diversas variveis que podem influenciar os

Anlise da
Economist Intelligence Unit
(EIU)
Seis variaveis polticas so usadas para construir uma escala de
50 pontos e as quatro variveis sociais so usadas para
construir um ndice de 17 pontos Resumidamente, essas
variveis so...
a existncia de vizinhos ruins;
o grau de autoritarismo do governo;
o fato de o governo estar no poder por um tempo excessivo;
o fato de o governo possuir baixa legitimidade;
o fato de os militares estarem no poder;
a presena de guerra civil ou insurreo;
um processo de urbanizao excessiva;
a presena de fundamentalismo islmico;
o nvel de corrupo na sociedade;
o nvel de tenso tnica.
http://www.eiu.com/PublicDefault.aspx

Anlise da Business Environment

Risk Intelligence
Diferena est na organizao de variveis em
categorias de causas (internas e externas), alm de
sintomas de risco poltico:
Causas externas...
* dependncia perante um pas maior;
* existncia de conflitos regionais;
Causas internas...
* fracionamento das foras polticas;
* represso governamental;
* nvel de xenofobia e nacionalismo;
* condies sociais;
* fora da extrema esquerda; http://www.beri.com/

Anlise da Political Risk

Services
Anlise de acordo com os seguintes preocupaes
sobre risco poltico...
probabilidade de instabilidade poltica;
restries sobre mercado de capitais;
interferncia em contratos de pessoal;
regime tributrio que descrimina firmas nacionais e
estrangeiras;
restries sobre remessa de lucros;
cmbio fixo ou controles sobre cmbio;
tarifas e restries extratarifrias;
poltica monetria e fiscal;
custo de mo-de-obra;
endividamento externo.
http://www.prsgroup.com/

PRS Method
On the basis of political system types, PRS analysts then
assign risk points
12 points for:
i. Government stability
ii. Socioeconomic conditions
iii. Investment profile
iv. Internal conflict
v. External conflict
And up to a maximum of 6 points for:
i. Corruption
ii. Military in politics
iii. Religious tensions
iv. Law and order
v. Ethnic tensions
vi. Democratic accountability
vii. Bureaucracy quality

Concluso e Desafio: Integrao

entre anlises qualitativas e
contextuais
Apesar da sua aceitao entre firmas multinacionais,
uma anlise sistemtica destas trs firmas e suas
previses de perdas durante o perodo de 1987-1992
mostra que nenhuma dessas maneiras de construo de
ndices de risco poltico capaz de oferecer previses
adequadas de perdas.
Em termos de anlise de risco, em geral, bancos e
agncias regulatrias tm voltado sua ateno para a
necessidade de integrar anlises qualitativas e
contextuais, a fim de enfrentar riscos polticos e sociais,
especialmente depois da quebra da Long Term Capital
Management, devido ao seu envolvimento excessivo na
Rssia, e a incapacidade de modelos formais de risco
perceber a vinda de um moratrio no pagamento de
dvida externa pelo governo da Russia e o surgimento

Multinational Strategies, Inc. (MNS)

Country Monitoring Service (CMS)
CMS: Guia de Redao
Escrever at 250 palavras por cada item letrada
1)

Poltica
a) Resenho de eventos polticos (eleio? coalizo? )
b) Mudanas / tendncias crticas
c) Composio de Governo (ministro cai? )
d) Oposio (escala: colaborao militarizao )
e) Poltica Exterior (viagem? acordo? )

2)

Governo
a) Mudanas de poltica econmica
b) Poltica e performance fiscal
c) Poltica Monetria

3)

Economia
a) Resenho econmico
b) Indicadores Centrais: GDP/Inflao/Investimento e poupana/trabalho e
emprego/renda e consumo
c) Balano Comercial: Importaes/Exportaes
d) Cmbio
e) Dvida domstica
f) Dvida externa

4)

Um Estudos periodico:
e) Anlise setorial (Agricultura/Energia/Minerao/Indstria/Servios/
f) Anlise Especial (Comrico Exterior/Setor financeiro/Ambiente investimento)

Produtos e Firmas Brasileiras

Carta Poltica
Elementos para Deciso Poltica e Econmica

Editores: Eduardo Graeff, Brasilio Sallum

Jr, Sergio Sister
Consultores: Luiz G. Belluzzo, Roberto
Campos, Fernando Henrique Cardoso,
Geraldo Gardenalli, Nelson Jobim, Cesar
Maia, Jos Serra, Paulo Singer

Carta Poltica

Grupo de professores USP Cincia

Poltica e Sociologia
*Circulao Gratis
*Anlise Independente
*Formato revista
*Principal Inovao: Fique de Olho
5-8 Eventos por vir, com cenrios
enxutos

GVprev

Editor, FGV Brazil Forecast (GVprev),

2001-2003
* Founder of quarterly report on Brazilian
politics, government policy, and economics
for business planning and risk analysis
* Joint venture between the So Paulo
Business School (EAESP) and Institute for
Brazilian Economics (IBRE) of the Fundao
Getulio Vargas
* Available at: www.fgv.br/fgvbrazilforecast

Lanamento com IPCA e...

Parceria Agncia Estado...

Go it alone...

Carta Mensal,
Pezco Consultoria

Relatrios de Bancos

1) BBV Bradesco
2) Pessoas > Firmas (Pastore, Nobrega
& Loyola...
3) Foreign Banks
Santander/Banespa
Citibank
Credit Suisse & Garantia

BBV Bradesco

No contempla poltica

A no ser na narrativa...

Pessoas > Firmas

Foreign Banks view Brazil

Anlise de Poltica =
impressionismo

Calendrio sem cenrios

Better = Politics as Item

Unibanco, Credit Suisse, Citibank

reports focus on politics as
determinant of market trends...
But lack concepts from political
science...

www.glccouncils.com
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Telefonema ou conversa...

Dr. von Mettenheim,

One of our clients, an analyst at an investment management firm, will be

travelling to Brazil in June and is possibly interested in private meetings to
discuss economic, regulatory, social/labor, and political issues affecting the
business and investment climate. Please let me know on your interest and
availability for the following:
June 21 - Sao Paolo
June 22 - Brasilia
**In your response, please also comment briefly on any specific industry or
knowledge specializations that you think might be of interest to the client. Many
thanks.
Topic: Possible Client Meetings in Brazil
We provide you this information to give you the opportunity to vet your ability to
consult on this topic.
To accept or decline this invitation, click here:
http://www.glgcouncils.com/rsvp/profilequestions.aspx?cs=1205873&cm=162948
If you are unsure if you are able to accept this invitation given other agreements
or obligations you may have, please feel free to forward the topic of this invitation
above to any third party who can help you confirm your ability to consult on this
topic or decline this invitation.

Uso de Questionrio

Dear Dr. von Mettenheim,

You are invited to participate in an online survey for the Gerson Lehrman Group
Councils.
Click Here to participate in this survey.
Survey Title: Political Stability of Brazil
Number of Questions: 19
Time to complete: 60 minutes

Dear Dr. von Mettenheim,

You are invited to participate in an online survey for the Gerson Lehrman Group
Councils.
Click Here to participate in this survey.
Survey Title: The Future of the World Economy and Globalization
Number of Questions: 29
Time to complete: 60 minutes

Concluso: Narrativo
Guia para Construir Cenrios
Escrever at 250 palavras por cada item letrada
1)

Poltica
a) Resenho de eventos polticos
b) Mudanas/tendncias crticas
c) Composio de Governo (ministros...)
d) Oposio (colabora militariza...)
e) Poltica Exterior

2)

Governo
a) Mudanas de poltica econmica
b) Poltica e performance fiscal
c) Poltica Monetria

3) Economia
a) Resenho econmico
b) Indicadores Centrais: GDP/Inflao/Investimento e poupana/trabalho e emprego/renda e
consumo
c) Balano Comercial: Importaes/Exportaes
d) Cmbio
e) Dvida domstica
f) Dvida externa
Mais estudos periodicos:
e) Anlise setorial (Agricultura/Energia/Minerao/Indstria/Servios/
f) Anlise Especial (Comrico Exterior/Setor financeiro/Ambiente investimento)

Desafio: Just do it,

Cincia Poltica

1) Forma grupos de at 5 pessoas.

2) Seleciona um projeto empresarial.
3) Faz uma anlise de risco poltico
para este projeto.
4) Apresentar os resultados por escrito.