Transportation Planning

and Traffic Estimation

CE 453 Lecture 5

Objectives
1.Identify highway system components
2.Define transportation planning
3.Recall the transportation planning process and
its design purposes
4.Identify the four steps of transportation
demand modeling and describe modeling basics.
5.Explain how transportation planning and
modeling process results are used in highway
design.

Highway System Components

1. Vehicle
2.Driver (and peds./bikes)
3.Roadway
4. Consider characteristics, capabilities, and
interrelationships in design
Start with demand needs (number of lanes?)

Transportation Planning
(one definition)
Activities that:
1.Collect information on performance
2.Identify existing and forecast future
system performance levels
3.Identify solutions

Focus: meet existing and forecast travel

demand

Where does planning fit in?

Transportation Planning
in Highway Design
1. identify deficiencies in system
2.identify and evaluate alternative alignment
impacts on system
3.predict volumes for alternatives

in urban areas model? smaller cities may not

need (few options)

in rural areas use statewide model if available
else: see lab 3-type approach (note Iowa is
developing a statewide model)

Truck Traffic

Planning at 3 levels
State

STIP Statewide Transportation

Improvement Program (list of projects)
Regional MPO Metropolitan Planning
Organization (>50,000 pop.), 25 year
long range plan and TIP (states now also
do LRP)
Local project identification and
prioritization

Four Steps of Conventional

Transportation Modeling

1.Trip Generation
2.Trip Distribution
3.Mode Split
4. Trip Assignment

Study Area

Clearly define the area under consideration

Where does one entity end?
May be defined by county boundaries, jurisdiction,
town centers

Study Area

May be regional
Metropolitan area Des Moines including
suburbs, Ankeny, etc.

Overall impact to major street/highway network

Local e.g., impact of trips to new Ames mall

Impact on local street/highway system
Impact on intersections

Need for turning lane or new signal can a model do

this level of detail?

Study Area

Links and nodes

Simple representation of the geometry of
the transportation systems (usually major
roads or transportation routes)
Links: sections of roadway (or railway)
Nodes: intersection of 2+ links
Centroids: center of TAZs
Centroid connectors: centroid to roadway
network where trips load onto the network

Travel Analysis Zones (TAZs)

Homogenous urban activities (generate same types

of trips)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
May be as small as one city block or as large as 10
sq. miles
Natural boundaries --- major roads, rivers, airport
boundaries
Sized so only 10-15% of trips are intrazonal

www.sanbag.ca.gov/ planning/subr_ctp_taz.html

Four Steps of Conventional

Transportation Modeling

Divide study area into study zones

4 steps

Trip Generation

-- decision to travel for a specific purpose (eat lunch)

-- choice of destination (a particular restaurant? The

nearest restaurant?)

Trip Distribution
Mode Choice

-- choice of travel mode (by bike)

-- choice of route or path (Elwood to Lincoln to US 69)

Network Assignment

Model Step #1

Trip
Generation

Trip Generation
Calculate

number of trips generated in

each zone

500 Households each making 2 morning

trips to work (avg. trip ends ~ 10/day!)
Worker leaving job for lunch

Calculate

number of trips attracted to

each zone

Industrial center attracting 500 workers

McDonalds attracting 200 lunch trips

Trip Generation
Number

of trips that begin from or

end in each TAZ
Trips for a typical day
Trips are produced or attracted
# of trips is a function of:

TAZs land use activities

Socioeconomic characteristics of TAZ
population

Trip Generation

Caliper Corp.

ModelManager 2000

Trip Generation

3 variables related to the factors that influence trip

production and attraction (measurable variables)

Density of land use affects production & attraction

Social and socioeconomic characters of users influence

production

Number of dwellings, employees, etc. per unit of land

Higher density usually = more trips
Average family income
Education
Car ownership

Location

Traffic congestion
Environmental conditions

Trip Generation

Trip purpose

Zonal trip making estimated separately by trip

purpose

School trips
Work trips
Shopping trips
Recreational trips

Travel behavior depends on trip purpose

School & work trips are regular (time of day)

Recreational trips highly irregular

Trip Generation

Forecast # of trips that produced or attracted by each

TAZ for a typical day
Usually focuses on Monday - Friday
# of trips is forecast as a function of other variables
Attraction

Number and types of retail facilities

Number of employees
Land use

Car ownership
Income
Population (employment characteristics)

Production

Trip Purpose

Trips are estimated by purpose (categories)

Work
School
Shopping
Social or recreational
Others (medical)

Work trips
regular
Often during peak periods
Usually same origin/destination
School trips
Regular
Same origin/destination
Shopping recreational
Highly variable by origin and destination, number, and time of day

Travel behavior of trip-makers depends somewhat on trip purpose

Household Based

Trips based on households rather than individual

Individual too complex
Theory assumes households with similar characteristics
have similar trip making characteristics
However
Concept of what constitutes a household (i.e. 2-parent
family, kids, hamster) has changed dramatically
Domestic partnerships
Extended family arrangements
Single parents
Singles
roommates

Trip Generation Analysis

3 techniques

Cross-classification
Covered in 355
Multiple regression analysis
Mathematical equation that describes trips as a
function of another variable
Similar in theory to trip rate
Wont go into
Trip-rate analysis models
Average trip-production or trip-attraction rates for
specific types of producers and attractors
More suited to trip attractions

Trip attractions

Example: Trip-rate analysis models

For 100 employees in a retail shopping center, calculate
the total number of trips
Home-based work (HBW) =
100 employees x 1.7 trips/employee = 170
Home-based Other (HBO) =
100 employees x 10 trips/employee = 1,000
Non-home-based (NHB) =
100 employees x 5 trips/employee = 500
Total = 170 + 1000 + 500 = 1,670 daily trips

Model Step #2

Trip
Distribution

Trip Distribution

Predicts where trips go from each TAZ

Determines trips between pairs of zones
Tij: trips from TAZ i going to TAZ j
Function of attractiveness of TAZ j
Size of TAZ j
Distance to TAZ j

If 2 malls are similar (in the same trip

purpose), travelers will tend to go to closest

Different methods but gravity model is most popular

Trip Distribution

Determines trips between pairs of zones

Tij: trips from TAZ i going to TAZ j
Function of attractiveness of TAZ j
Size of TAZ j
Distance to TAZ j

If 2 malls are similar, travelers will

tend to go to closest

Different methods but gravity model is most

popular

Trip Distribution

Caliper Corp.

Maricopa County

Gravity Model
Tij = Pi AjFijKij
Qij = total trips from i to j

Pi = total number of trips produced in zone i, from trip

AjFijKij
generation
Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j, from trip
generation
Fij = impedance (usually inverse of travel time), calculated
Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for pair ij

Model Step #3

Mode Choice

Mode Choice
In

most situations, a traveler has a

choice of modes

Transit, walk, bike, carpool, motorcycle,

drive alone

Mode

choice/mode split determines #

of trips between zones made by auto
or other mode, usually transit

Characteristics Influencing
Mode Choice

Availability of parking
Income
Availability of transit
Auto ownership
Type of trip

Work trip more likely transit

Special trip trip to airport or baseball stadium served
by transit
Shopping, recreational trips by auto

Old and young are more likely to be transit dependent

Stage in life

39

Characteristics Influencing
Mode Choice

Cost

Parking costs, gas prices, maintenance?

Transit fare

Transit usually more time consuming (not in NYC or DC

)

Safety
Time
Image

In some areas perception is that only poor ride transit

In others (NY) everyone rides transit

40

Mode Choice Modeling

A

numerical method to describe how

people choose among competing
alternatives (dont confuse model and
modal)
Highly dependent on characteristics of
region
Model may be separated by trip
purposes

Utility and Disutility Functions

Utility function: measures satisfaction derived from

choices
Disutility function: represents generalized costs of
each choice
Usually expressed as the linear weighted sum of the
independent variables of their transformation
U = a0 + a1X1 + a2X2 + .. + arXr

U: utility derived from choice

Xr: attributes
ar: model parameters

Logit Models
Calculates

the probability of selecting

a particular mode
p(K) = ____eUk__
eUk

p: probability of selecting mode k

Logit Model Example 1

Utility functions for auto and transit
U = ak 0.35t1 0.08t2 0.005c

ak = mode specific variable

t1 = total travel time (minutes)
t2 = waiting time (minutes)
c = cost (cents)

Do you agree with

the relative
magnitude of the
time parameters? Is
there double
counting/colinearity?

Logit Model Example 1 (cont)

Travel characteristics between two zones
Variable
ak

Auto

Transit
-0.46

-0.07

t1

20

30

t2
c

8
320

6
100

Do you agree with

the relative
magnitude of the
mode specific
parameters? How
much effect does
cost have?

Uauto = -0.46 0.35(20) 0.08(8) 0.005(320) = -9.70

Utransit = -0.07 0.35(30) 0.08(6) 0.005(100) = -11.55

Logit Model Example 1 (cont)

Uauto = -9.70
Utransit = -11.55
Logit Model:
p(auto) = ___eUa __ = _____e-9.70 ____ = 0.86
eUa + eUt
e-9.70 + e-11.55
p(transit) = ___eUt __ = _____e-11.55 ____ = 0.14
eUa + eUt e-9.70 + e-11.55

Logit Model Example 2

The city decides to spend money to create and improve
bike trails so that biking becomes a viable option, what
percent of the trips will be by bike?
Assume:
A bike trip is similar to a transit trip
A bike trip takes 5 minutes more than a transit trip but
with no waiting time
After the initial purchase of the bike, the trip is free

Logit Model Example 2 (cont)

Travel characteristics between two zones
Variable
ak

Auto

Transit
-0.46

Bike
-0.07
-0.07

t1

20

30

35

t2
c

8
320

6
100

0
0

Uauto = -0.46 0.35(20) 0.08(8) 0.005(320) = -9.70

Utransit = -0.07 0.35(30) 0.08(6) 0.005(100) = -11.55
Ubike = -0.07 0.35(35) 0.08(0) 0.005(0) = -12.32

Logit Model Example 2 (cont)

Uauto = -9.70, Utransit = -11.55, Ubike = -12.32
Logit Model:

Notice that auto

lost share even
though its utility
stayed the same

p(auto) = _____eUa ____ = _______e-9.70 ______ = 0.81

eUa + eUt +eUb
e-9.70 + e-11.55 + e-12.32
p(transit) = _____eUt__ __ = ______e-11.55 ______ = 0.13
eUa + eUt +eUb
e-9.70 + e-11.55 + e-12.32
p(bike) = _____eUt__ __ = ________e-11.55 ______ = 0.06
eUa + eUt +eUb
e-9.70 + e-11.55 + e-12.32

Model Step #4
Traffic Assignment
(Route Choice)

Caliper Corp.

Trip Assignment
Trip

makers choice of path between

origin and destination
Path: streets selected
Transit: usually set by route
Results in estimate of traffic volumes
on each roadway in the network

Person Trips vs. Vehicle Trips

Trip generation step calculated total person

trips
Trip assignment deals with volume not
person trips
Need to adjust person trips to reflect
vehicle trips
Understand units during trip generation
phase

Person Trips vs. Vehicle Trips

Example
Usually adjust by average auto occupancy
Example:
If:
average auto occupancy = 1.2
number of person trips from zone 1 = 550
So:
Vehicle trips = 550 person trips/1.2 persons per vehicle =
458.33 vehicle trips

Time of Day Patterns

Trip

generation usually based on 24hour period

LOS calculations usually based on
hourly time period
Hour, particularly peak, is often of
more interest than daily

Time of Day Patterns

Common time periods

Morning peak
Afternoon peak
Off-peak

Use of factors (e.g., morning peak may be

11% of daily traffic)
Estimate trip generation by hour

Calculation of trips by time of day

Minimum Path
Theory: users will select the quickest
route between any origin and destination
Several route choice models (all based on
some minimum path)

All or nothing
Multipath
Capacity restraint

Minimum Tree

Starts at zone and selects minimum path to each

successive set of nodes
Until it reaches destination node
2
(3)

(2)
(7)

1
(4)

(4)

Path from 1 to 5

Minimum Tree
2
(3)

(2)
(7)

1
(4)

3
1.

(4)

Path from 1 to 5 first passes thru 4

2. First select minimum path from 1 to 4

3. Path 1-2-4 has impedance of 5
4. Path 1-3-4 has impedance of 8
5. Select 1-2-4

See CE451/551
notes for more on
shortest path
computations
several methods are
available

All or Nothing
Allocates

all volume between zones to

minimum path based on free-flow link
impedances
Does not update as the network loads
Becomes unreliable as volumes and
travel time increases

Multi-Path

Assumes that all traffic will not use shortest path

Assumes that traffic will allocate itself to
alternative paths between a pair of nodes based on
costs
Uses some method to allocate percentage of trips
based on cost

Utility functions (logit)

Or some other relationship based on cost

As cost increases, probability that the route will

be chosen decreases

Capacity Restraint

Once vehicles begin selecting the

minimum path between a set of nodes,
volume increase and so do travel times
Original minimum paths may no longer
be the minimum path
Capacity restraint assigns traffic
iteratively, updating impedance at
each step

Sizing
Facilities

Sizing Facilities

Sizing Facilities