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Presentation Outline
EnergyBasics
RegulatedEmissionsandGreenhouseGases
GlobalWarming
EPAandCARBRegulations
BusFuelOptions
HistoricalFuelUseTrendsinBusIndustry
ComparativeEmissions
Conclusions
Forms of Energy
Kinetic(motion)
Electrical
Radiant
Solar
Thermal
Geothermal
Motion
Wind
Sound
Potential(stored)
Chemical
Petroleum
NaturalGas
Propane
Biomass
biodiesel
StoredMechanical
Nuclear
Gravitational
Hydropower
6%
94%
(CONSERVATION)
38%NaturalGas
20%Coal
17%LargeHydro
14%Nuclear
11%Renewable
Hydrogen
NaturalGas
Water
Sources: US Energy Information Administration; CA Energy Commission
NG
&
ro
le
um
pe
t
Dependence on Foreign/
Unstable Sources
Domestic Demand
Sources: Assoc. for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas; US Army Corps of Engineers
Years of Reserves
250
200
Domestic Reserves
World Reserves
150
100
50
0
Oil
NG
LNG
Coal
Uranium
Fuel
Source:USArmyCorpsofEngineers(ERDC/CERLTR0521)
&
pe
tr o
le
um
Prices
NG
200
150
100
U.S.
California
50
Source:U.S.DOE,EnergyInformationAdministration
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
1994
250
12
10
8
6
4
Residential
Source:U.S.DOE,EnergyInformationAdministration
2005
1995
1990
1985
2000
Commercial
1980
14
12
10
8
6
4
Residential
Commercial
2000
1995
1990
1985
Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommission
2005
Industrial
1980
C ost (cents/kWh)
14
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Diesel (US avg)
0.5
NG (commercial)
Electricity (commercial)
Sources:U.S.DOE,EnergyInformationAdministration;CaliforniaEnergyCommission
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0.0
Source:USArmyCorpsofEngineers(ERDC/CERLTR0521)
createsecurityrisks
Nuclearmaterials
US:5%ofworldspopulation,
uses25%annualenergyproduction
lossofgoodwill
contextformilitaryconflicts
Source: US DHS; US Army Corps of Engineers
Globalwarming
Smog
Acidrain
Groundlevelozone
Fuelmining/production
destroysecosystems&biodiversity
Source:USArmyCorpsofEngineers(ERDC/CERLTR0521)
Source:USArmyCorpsofEngineers(ERDC/CERLTR0521)
Source:CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard
Criteria Emissions
FineParticulateMatter(PM10)
reducesvisibility;penetratesdeepintolungs,impairingfunction
CarbonMonoxide(CO)
invisible;reducesoxygeninblood
NitrogenOxides(NOx)
brownishhaze;impairbreathing;reactinsunlighttoformozone
NonMethaneHydrocarbons(NMHC)
reactinsunlighttoformozone
GroundLevelOzone(O3)
Invisible;powerfulrespiratoryirritant;damagescrops,degrades
rubber&paint
Source:USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency
Source:USEPAClimateChangeOutreachKit
Source:SBAPCD;CaliforniaEnergyCommission
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
800,000 700,000 600,000
500,000
400,000 300,000
200,000
100,000
Source:RobertA.Rohde;EmissionDatabaseforGlobalAtmosphericResearch
20th Century:
Temp +1.1 F (+0.6 C)
Source:RobertA.Rohde;GlobalWarmingArt
Glacial Retreat
Length
Collection of
20 glacier
length records
from different
parts of world
1500
2000
Source:WorldGlacierMonitoringService
Source:GaryBraaschPhotography
2004
Source:Univ.Salzburg;GaryBraaschPhotography
Source:NOAA;GaryBraaschPhotography
1911
NPSestimatesthatall
butafewofthe30
glaciersinthisparkwill
begonebymidcentury
2000
Sources:NationalParkService;GaryBraaschPhotography
1960
Worlds 6th largest lake
1963-2001
Shrunk 95%;
wetlands spoiled
Sources:WorldResourcesInstitute;
UNEP(UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme)
OnePlanetManyPeople:
AtlasofourChangingEnvironment
Source:WorldResourcesInstitute
25 N lat
Measurementsindicatea
30%reductioninocean
circulationvolume
since1957
Significantclimate
changesforareaslike
ScandinaviaandBritain
thatarewarmedbythe
NorthAtlanticdrift.
Sources: World Resources Institute; Ocean current figure: www.NASA.gov; Transect information: Bryden, Harry
L. et al. "Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25 N." Nature 438: 655-657. 1 December
2005
Source:SwissRe2005
Wheretonext?
Source:RobertA.Rohde;GlobalWarmingArt
No Silver Bullet
PhotoCredit:101InMotion
Source:USDepartmentofEnergy
18.0
16.0
14.0
Criteria Pollutants
CO
12.0
10.0
8.0
NOx
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
HC
PM
1985
NMHC
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source:CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard(CCR1956.1)
2010
FuelCharacteristics
TransitBusManufacturerComments
>90%ofaltfueledsmallbuses
>95%ofaltfueledmidtofullsizebuses
USproduces~87%ofNGitconsumeswithmostof
USproduces~87%
remaindercomingfromCanada.
24003600psi;onboardcylindersrequireperiodic
inspectionandcertification.
Extensivemodificationstofacilitiesthatfuel,service,
modificationstofacilities
andmaintainCNGbuses(ventilationandleakdetection
&monitoringsystems).
Strongtrainingprogramscrucial.
Appropriateforsmallbuses
smallbuses
Highervehiclecostandfuelavailability
vehiclecostandfuelavailability
limitsitsapplication
Safetyconcernsregardingheavierthanair
Safetyconcerns
characteristic
Source:ATTISurveyofBusManufacturers
Methanol
Previoususersreportengineunreliabilityandhighfuelprices
Specialprecautionsnecessaryasflamevirtuallyinvisible
Specialprecautions
Methanol
increasedcostofoperation
toxic,watersolublefluid,creatingconcernsabout
toxic,watersoluble
groundwatercontaminationfromreleaseduringanaccident
groundwatercontamination
corrosive,attackingengineandfuelsystemcomponents
corrosive
althoughregulatedemissionsreduced, formaldehydeis
formaldehyde
produced
Source:ATTISurveyofBusManufacturers
Biodiesel
Domesticallyproduced,cleanerburning,renewable
renewable
fuelderivedfromvegetableoilsoranimalfats.
Usuallyblendedwithpetrodiesel.
blended
BecomingincreasinglypopularsinceU.S.DOE
increasinglypopular
rulingin2001thanEPActcreditsapplytoblendsof
atleast20%(B20).
Pending:B20=CARBDiesel
BecauseblendsuptoB20canbeusedinexisting
dieselengineswithoutmodifications,ithaslowest
capitalcostofaltfuels.
ofaltfuels
Source:ATTISurveyofBusManufacturers
Battery-Electric
Small(22ft)electricbusessuccessfully
deployedinSantaBarbaraCA,Chattanooga
deployed
TN,NorfolkVA,andMiamiBeachFL;to
date,limitedtoshuttleoperations.
Quiet,emissionfreeoperationyields
Quiet,emissionfree
substantialincreasesinridership.
Batterylimitationshaveresultedinlow
Batterylimitations
range,reducedreliability,increasedlife
cyclecosts.
Hydrogen
Derivedfromrenewablesourcesorpetroleumfeedstocks.
CanbeutilizedinICEsandfuelcells.
CurrentlyplaysminimalroleinUSenergymix;huge
potential
minimalrole
ForddemonstratingV10,E450hydrogencutawaybuses
Mostindustryofficialsbelievehydrogenengineandfuelcell
pathsatleast10yearsaway.
Fuelinfrastructureand
fuelcellcostgreatestchallenges.
Fuelinfrastructure
fuelcellcost
Mitigationofhydrogenleaksinsidebuildingsincludeproperair
hydrogenleaks
ventilation,leakdetectors,explosionproofwiring.
Safetyissues:abilitytodetonate&to
embrittlecertainmaterials.
detonate
embrittle
Hybrid-Electric
Substantialattention&development:
Increasedfueleconomy(1050%reported)
fueleconomy(1050%reported)
Reducedvehicleemissions
Reducedoperatingnoiseonacceleration
Thirteenhybridautomodelsincommercialproduction
~1,100hybridtransitbusesin
regularserviceinNA
~1,100
regularservice
Lowregulatedemissions
Nonewemissions
Lowerfuelcostspartiallyoffsethigheracquisitioncost
fuelcosts
Quieter,smootheroperation
Quieter,smoother
Positiveperception/publicrelationsreportedbycustomers
Positiveperception
GMAllisondevelopingsmallerhybriddrive
Pluginhybridscouldresultinfurther
improvements
Pluginhybrids
infossilfueleconomies
Source:SurveyofBusManufacturers
CNG
Propane
Biodiesel
(B20)
BatteryElectric
Emissions
significant
reductions
significant
reductions
until MY10
moderate
reductions
slight
reduction
until MY07
no local
emissions
Domestic
44%
87%
90%
100% (B100)
100%
$2.81/gal
$2.30/DGE
$2.56/gal
$3.94/DGE
$2.91/gal
$2.92/DGE
16/kWh
$1.25/DGE
Life-Cyc Cost
+~3%
+~15%
+~10%
+~7%
+~20%
Power
same
similar
similar
similar
similar
Range
same
slightly
reduced
slightly
reduced
slightly
reduced
reduced
Refueling Infra.
Cost
same
high
moderate
same
moderate
Safety
same
3000 psi;
facility mods.
heavier
than air
same
high voltages
Fuel Price2
1.ParticulateMatterSources:U.S.DepartmentofEnergy;EnergyEfficiency&RenewableEnergy;SBMTD
2.Overallaverageprices,September2005
3.DieselGallonEquivalent
2002
2003
2004
833
700
810
716
21
21
21
55
51
49
35
Battery-Electric
17
13
28
29
E85 (Ethanol)
M85 (Methanol)
Hydrogen
Source:EnergyInformationAdministration,U.S.Government
2002
2003
2004
738
947
948
1,012
86
101
300
317
Battery-Electric
56
38
11
E85 (Ethanol)
M85 (Methanol)
11
Hydrogen
Source:EnergyInformationAdministration,U.S.Government
Comparative Emissions
30ft.TransitBuses
CriteriaEmissions
GreenhouseGasEmissions
NOx
NMHC PM10
CO
LSDiesel1(g/bhphr)
2.03
0.08
0.10
1.3
CNG(g/bhphr)
1.43
0.00
0.00
1.0
TestedwithLowSulfurDiesel(500ppm).UltraLowSulfurDiesel(15ppm)
reducesemissionsofsulfurcompoundsenablingNOx,HC,andPMreductions.
NOx
NMHC PM10
CO
2007(g/bhphr)
1.2
0.14
0.01
1.3
2010(g/bhphr)
0.2
0.14
0.01
1.3
Sources:Cummins;CARB;USEPA
FuelDensity
BrakeSpec.FuelConsumptionxFuelEfficiency
where:
FuelDensity=7.16lb/galdiesel
BrakeSpecificFuelConsumption=0.4lb/bhphrdiesel
FuelEfficiency=5.02mpgdiesel(2004GilligLF30)
LSDiesel(g/mi)
NOx
7.2
NMHC PM10
0.29
0.36
CO
4.6
CNG(g/mi)
4.9
0.00
0.00
3.4
200709(g/mi)
4.3
0.50
0.04
4.6
2010(g/mi)
0.7
0.50
0.04
4.6
Sources:Cummins;CARB;USEPA
Relative to LSD
Biodiesel Emissions
g/kWh
NOx
0.073
NMOG
0.025
PM10
?
CO
?
Emissions(g/mi)=EmissionRatexACEnergyConsumptionRate
where:ACEnergyConsumptionRate(30ftEB)=1.56ACkWh/mi
g/mi
NOx
0.11
NMOG
0.039
PM10
?
Source:ElectricPowerResearchInstitute;SBMTD
CO
?
NOx
NMHC
Emissions
80%
PM10
60%
CO
40%
20%
??
0%
LS
Diesel
MY2007
MY2010
ULSD or
B20
Hybrid
(B20 or
ULSD)
CNG
Electric
Local
Sources:Cummins;CARB;USEPA;EPRI;SBMTD
Electric
Total
Well-to-Wheels Emissions
Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommission
1800
Combustion
Fuel Production
1600
1400
1000
800
600
400
P ro p a n e
C N G /L N G
H y b rid
(B 2 0 )
H y b rid
B 20
200
D ie s e l
g/km
1200
Source:CSIRO(LifeCycleEmissionsAnalysisofAlternativeFuelsforHeavyVehicles)
Combustion
Fuel Production
2.5
1.5
1.0
P ropane
C N G /LN G
H y brid
(B 20)
H y brid
0.0
B 20
0.5
D ies el
g/km
2.0
Source:CSIRO(LifeCycleEmissionsAnalysisofAlternativeFuelsforHeavyVehicles)
Combustion
Fuel Production
0.12
0.08
0.06
0.04
Propane
Hybrid
(B20)
Hybrid
B20
0.00
CNG/LNG
0.02
Diesel
g/km
0.10
Source:CSIRO(LifeCycleEmissionsAnalysisofAlternativeFuelsforHeavyVehicles)
% of
Total
Global Warming
Potential (100-yr)
72%
Methane (CH4)
18%
23
9%
296
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
1%
4,600- 14,000
Sources:EmissionDatabaseforGlobalAtmosphericResearch;
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(3rdAssessmentReport,2001)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Propane
CNG/LNG
Hybrid
(B20)
Hybrid
B20
Diesel
g/km CO2-equivalents
Transit Buses
Source:CSIRO(LifeCycleEmissionsAnalysisofAlternativeFuelsforHeavyVehicles)
Biodiesel
lowestcapitalcostofaltfuels
Renewable,energysecurity,reducedGHGemissions
Busindustrymovingtowardsdieselhybrids
improvedfueleconomy,reducedemissions
ElectricBuses
lowestemissions