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Money-Market Funds
Treasuries1
Corporate Bonds2
Dow Jones Industrials
S&P 500
Nasdaq Composite
Average
$10,000 in 1992
Annual Return
Grows To
4.5% $
15,530
7.0%
19,672
7.7%
20,997
17.3%
49,315
14.2%
37,728
17.6%
50,591
Note: Figures are total return except Nasdaq data, which don't included dividends
I have ranked investments, roughly, from lowest risk to highest
1
A basket of Treasury Securities
2
A baskey of investment-grade-rated corporate bonds
Source: Wall Street Journal, 28 January 2002, p. R6
Best Year
Worst Year
2001
Return
Return
Return
5.9%
2.7%
3.7%
18.5%
-3.3%
6.2%
21.6%
-3.3%
9.5%
36.9%
-5.4%
-5.4%
37.6%
-11.9%
-11.9%
85.6%
-39.3%
-21.1%
Sources of Returns
HPR Example
Annualizing HPRs
1 8.01%
Multi-period Returns
Period
Cash Flow
0.0
-50.00
0.5
1.00
1.0
1.00
1.5
0.00
2.0
1.00
2.5
0.00
3.0
0.00
3.5
0.00
4.0
1.00
4.5
0.00
5.0
101.00
HPY per period
7.964%
Annualized HPY
16.563%
This is correct!!!
Geometric:
1 11 (0.50) 1 0.00%
1
FC0
1
FC1
P1 FC0
1
P0 FC1
Negative Returns
All of the examples weve seen so far assume that your investment
appreciates in value. However, its very likely that you will lose
money occasionally.
The formulas that weve seen work just as well for negative returns
as for positive returns.
For example, assume that you purchased a stock for $50 three
months ago, and it is now worth $40. What is your HPR and
annualized HPR? Assume no dividends were paid.
40 0
1 0.20 20.00%
50
HPRAnnualized (1 ( 0.20)) 4 1 0.5904 59.04%
HPR
40(1.20) 48 50
To figure the gain to recover use the formula (%L is the loss):
1
1
1 %L
So, you would need to earn a return of 25% to get back to $50:
1
%GTR
1 0.25 25%
1 0.20
%GTR
What is Risk?
Types of Risk
Default Risk
Credit Risk
Purchasing Power Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Systematic (Market) Risk
Unsystematic Risk
Event Risk
Liquidity Risk
Foreign Exchange (FX)
Risk
Probability Distributions
A probability distribution
is simply a listing of the
probabilities and their
associated outcomes
Probability distributions
are often presented
graphically as in these
examples
Potential Outcomes
Potential Outcomes
E(R)
Probability
60%
40%
20%
0%
10%
15%
20%
Rate of Return
Less Risky
Riskier
E RP i E Ri
i 1
Portfolio Risk
25%
20%
15%
Return
10%
5%
0%
-5%
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
Stock A
Stock B
Portfolio
2004
P 12 12 22 22 2r1, 2 1 212
Suppose that we are interested in two securities, but they are both
very risky. Security 1 has a standard deviation of 30% and security
2 has a standard deviation of 40%. Further, the correlation between
the two is quite low at 20% (r1,2 = 0.20).
0.50 2 0.30 2 0.50 2 0.40 2 2 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.50 0.273
Note that the standard deviation of the portfolio is less than the
standard deviation of either security. This is what diversification is
all about.
Business risk
Financial leverage
Liquidity risk
Exchange rate risk
Rate of Return
RFR
Risk
f(Business, Financial, Liquidity, and Exchange Rate Risk)
Or
or