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Michael Milligan
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Golden, Colorado USA
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
10 FAQ’s about Wind
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30x10
Seconds
3
14x10 6,600 Hours of 5-minute Electric Load and Wind
12
Lo
Load (MW)
10
5-minute changes
3
1000
500
14x10
0
-500
-1000
0
Total W IND
• Wind forecasts
are derived
from weather
prediction
models
• Wind forecast
accuracy is
improving
• Several wind
forecasting
firms in U.S.
Courtesy: WindLogics, Inc. St. Paul, MN
• UWIG/WindLogics RDF
• Xcel/CO
http://www.ercot.com/meetings/ros/keydocs/2008/0313/07._ERCOT_OPERATIONS_REPORT_EECP022608_pub
100
90
Percent Penetration
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
ew 4
et
na
s
G
NG
en
Sw I
so gal
04
11
I
k
ef
rk
04
UK
do
SE
SE
0
Sp and
ar
Ne 200
BN
ne enn
Yo
nt
20
de
ed
20
20
20
a
tu
m
or
nd
d
an y S
ES
ES
r
en
er
d
re
Po
15
n
ta
Ire ain
ta
ic
ol
an
la
la
th
G
D
so
er ord
a
C
20
N
nd
nd
Ire
Ire
rw
nl
W
y
ne
S
N
Fi
la
la
an
y
No
U
in
in
Ire
m
M
M
m
id
M
er
US
US
+G
G
ic
rd
No
Peak Energy
• Conditional-firm
transmission tariff (recent
FERC ruling)
• Wind does not need
transmission all of the
time
• Most transmission paths
have some open capacity
most of the time
• Adding wind can result in
more efficient usage of
existing transmission
cooperate – large
1000
Blue: up-ramp
Green: down-ramp
500
electricity markets
Yellow: combined ramp
Ramp (MW/hr)
0
balancing areas
400
200
0
-200
-400
LEGEND
WestConnect Lines
California Lines
LADWP Lines
DC Lines
3
3
14x10 6,600 Hours of 5-minute Electric Load 14x10 6,600 Hours of 5-minute Electric Load and Wind
12 12
10
Load (MW)
10
Load (MW)
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
5-minute changes
1000
5-minute changes
1000
500
500
0 0
-500 -500
-1000 -1000
0 0
5-Minute Periods for Approximately 9 Months 5-Minute Periods for Approximately 9 Months
12 Load Only
Load and Wind
10
8
MW
0
0
5-Minute Periods for Approximately 9 Months
3200
Peaking -
$90/MWh
2800
2600
2400
4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM
dat
Blue: up-ramp
500 Green: down-ramp
Yellow: combined ramp
Ramp (MW/hr)
-500
Some areas are ramping up nearly 1000 MW/hr
Excess Ramping (MW/hr)
Milligan & Kirby 2007, Impact of Balancing Areas Size, Obligation Sharing, and Ramping
Capability on Wind Integration . http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41809.pdf
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
BA Consolidation Reduces Ramp Requirements
2000 Combined ramp requirements, Load+Wind
Combined Ramp (MW/hr)
1000
-1000
0
-200
-400
-600
400
0 2 4 6 8 10
5-Minute Periods
200
-200
-600