SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

The Influence of United States Gross

Domestic Product and Exchange
Rate toward Plywood Export to
United States
Written by:
Senda Serlalita
4.51.12.0.17

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

The Influence of United States Gross Domestic

Product and Exchange Rate toward Plywood
Export to United States
Introductio
n
Findings

Conclusion
&
Suggestion

Background, Statement of the Problem,

Objectives
Classical Assumption Test, Coefficient
Determination
(R Squared), F-Test, t-Test, Multiple Linear
Regression
Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Background

Indonesia
along
with Malaysia had
been major players
in exporting tropical
hardwood plywood in
international market
for years. Until 2003,
Indonesia's plywood
industry dominated
tropical
plywood
market,
however,
starting from 2004
Malaysia
has
surpassed Indonesia
in export volume.
(Dwiprabowo, 2009)
Source: www.bps.go.id, 2016

Introduction

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

Statement of the Problem

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Several studies on the effect ofUnited States GDP and Exchange

Rate to the export volume of wooden products to the United States
had been conducted and found mixed results. Thus the questions
of this research are clearly and concisely as described:
1. How is the influence of United States GDP toward Plywood
export to United States?
2. How is the influence of Exchange Rate toward Plywood export to
United States?
3. How is the influence of Government Regulation on SVLK
(Standar Verifikasi Legalitas Kayu) toward Plywood export to
United States?
4. How is the simultaneous influence of United States GDP,
Exchange Rate and Government Regulation on SVLK (Standar
Verifikasi Legalitas Kayu)Introduction
toward Plywood export to United
Conclusion &
Findings
Suggestion
States?

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Objective

1. To analyze the effect of the development of United States

Gross Domestic Product toward export of Indonesian Plywood
to United States.
2. To analyze the effect of Exchange Rate volatility toward
export of Indonesian Plywood to United States.
3. To analyze the effect of Government Regulation on SVLK
(Standar Verifikasi Legalitas Kayu) toward export of
Indonesian Plywood to United States.

Introduction

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Theoretical Framework
United States
GDP

Exchange
Rate

H1

H2

H3

Plywood Export to
United States

Government
Regulation on
SVLK
H4
Source: Built design for the research, 2016

Introduction

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

Classic Assumption Test

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Normality Test

Source: Data processed with SPSS 21.0, August 2016

Introduction

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Classic Assumption Test

Normality Test
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test

N
Mean
Std.
Deviation
Absolute
Most
Positive
Extreme
Differences
Negative
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
Normal
Parameters

Unstandardiz
ed Residual
15
,0000000
27,30234670
,103
,096
-,103
,400
,997

Source: Data processed with SPSS 21.0, August 2016

Introduction

The significant value of the

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test in
this research is 0.997 >
0.05. This means that the
significance of the
Kolmogorov-Smirnov test in
this research is greater
than the significance level.
It can be concluded that
the data in this research is
normally distributed.

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Classic Assumption Test

Multicollinearity Test
Coefficients
Collinearity
Statistics
Model
Toleran
VIF
ce
1
(Constant)

United States
,383
2,609
GDP
Exchange Rate
,853
1,173
Source: Data processed
USD/IDRwith SPSS 21.0, August 2016
Dummy SVLK
,420
2,383

Introduction

The calculation results of

VIF (Variance Inflation
Factor) of each independent
variable has tolerance
value of > 0.05 and VIF <
10. Therefore, it can be
concluded that there is no
multicollinearity between
independent variables in
this regression model.

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Classic Assumption Test

Heteroscedasticity Test

The dots are scattered

randomly and spread both
above and below zero on
the Y-axis. It also do not
form any visible pattern. It
proofs that there is no
heteroscedasticity on the
following regression model.

Source: Data processed with SPSS 21.0, August 2016

Introduction

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Classic Assumption Test

Autocorrelation Test
Model Summary
Mod
el

R
Adjust
Squar
ed R
e
Square

Std. Error of
the Estimate

DurbinWatso
n

,
1

963

,927

,907

30,8012

1,160

Source: Data processed with SPSS 21.0, August 2016

For N=15 and k=3,

DL=0,814 and DU=1,7501
It can be concluded that DW =
1,160 is between DL = 0,814
and DU = 1,7501 or 0,814 <
1,160 < 1,7501.
The test shows that there is no
certainty or defitinely
conclusion.

Introduction

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Classic Assumption Test

Autocorrelation Test
Run Test

TestValuea
Cases<TestValue
Cases>=TestValue
TotalCases
NumberofRuns
Z
Asymp.Sig.(2-tailed)

Unstandardized
Residual
-4,27594
7

The result shows that

Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) = 0,290

> 0,05

15
6
-1,059
,290

it means that the data which

used is random, so there is no
autocorrelation in the test.

Source: Data processed with SPSS 21.0, August 2016

Introduction

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Model Testing

Coefficient Determination (Adjusted R Squared)

Model Summary
Mod
el

R
Adjust
Squar
ed R
e
Square

Std. Error of
the Estimate

DurbinWatso
n

,
1

963

,927

,907

30,8012

1,160

Source: Data processed with SPSS 21.0, August 2016

Introduction

According to the amount of

Adjusted R2 by 0.907
It means that number of
variance exports volume of
Plywood from Indonesia to
United States variable is 90.7%
which explained by variance of
United States GDP, Exchange
Rate USD/IDR and Dummy
Government Regulation on
SVLK.
Whereas, for the rest 9.3% will
be explained by other factors
which out of this model.

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Model Testing
F-TEST

For N=15 and k=3, Ftable is 3.59.

ANOVA

Model
1

Sig.

Regressio
46,394
n
Residual

Total

,000b

Result of SPSS calculation that

FCalculated is 46.394 and the sig.
probability is 0,000. The comparison
statement is FCalculated > FTable
which 46.394 > 3.59 or 0.000 < 0.05

It is concluded that simultaneously

United States GDP, Exchange Rate,
and Dummy Government Regulation
have significant influence toward
Source: Data processed with SPSS 21.0, August 2016 export of Indonesian Plywood Export
to United States.

Introduction

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Model Testing
t-TEST
Model

t
(Constant)

5,823 ,000

United States GDP

1

Exchange
USD/IDR
Dummy SVLK

Sig.

Rate

-10,222 ,000
3,649 ,004
3,700 ,004

Source: Data processed with SPSS 21.0, August 2016

Introduction

The decision is made based on

confidence level of 95% or () = 0.05
one tailed. The degree of freedom (df)
= n-k = 15-4 = 11. From the one side
testing the value of t table = 1.79588.
United States GDP has a negative
and significant influence towards
Indonesian Plywood Export to
United States
Exchange Rate has a positive and
significant influence towards
Indonesian Plywood Export to
United States
Dummy Government Regulation
on SVLK has a positive and
significant influence towards
Indonesian Plywood Export to
Conclusion &
United
States.
Findings

Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Model Testing

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION TEST

Model
(Constant)

United
States GDP
Exchange
Rate
USD/IDR
Dummy
SVLK

Unstandardized
Coefficients
Std.
B
Error
105,66
615,294
5

Sig.

5,823

,000

,006
10,222

,000

,011

3,649

,004

96,356 26,042

3,700

,004

-,060
,038

The
equation can be derived as a function
of the following:

Source: Data processed with SPSS 21.0, August 2016

Introduction

Where:
Y = Indonesian Plywood export
= United States GDP
= Exchange Rate
= Government Regulation on SVLK
= (constant)
= Regression Coefficient of the
independent variables
= Estimated error standardize

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Conclusion

a. United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Exchange

Rate of the Dollar against the Rupiah and Government
Regulation on SVLK (Sistem Verifikasi Legalitas Kayu)
simultaneously have a significant influence on Indonesian
Plywood Export to United States.
b. As well as United States GDP increase, purchasing power
of United States will also increase. But the scarcity in log
wood as plywood raw material causing the production of
plywood declined. This resulting the United States tend to
meet the supply needs of its plywood by importing from
other countries which offer lower price such as China,
Malaysia, Brazil and Canada.
Conclusion &
Introduction

Findings

Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Conclusion

c. Partially, Exchange Rate USD against Rupiah have a

positive and significant effect on Indonesian Plywood
export to United States. The rupiah exchange rate effect.
When US Dollar appreciated, the price of Indonesian
Plywood imported to United States become more
affordable and goods from other countries is more
expensive. This causes the volume of Indonesia's
plywood exports to the United States will increase due to
the lower price.

Introduction

Findings

Conclusion &
Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

Conclusion

d. Government Regulation on SVLK (Sistem Verifikasi

Legalitas Kayu) have a positive and significant effect
toward Indonesian Plywood Export to United States. After
Government Regulation on SVLK (Sistem Verifikasi
Legalitas Kayu) was enacted, there was a positive
significant difference on Indonesian Plywood Export to
United States. Because United States is assured that
Indonesian Plywood is a product that is legal and comes
from legal sources and meet the requirement of Legal
Lacey Act issued by the United States which has an
ultimate aim of preventing the entry of illegal wood
products. Each wood products that will enter the United
States must pass the rule of Lacey Act.
Conclusion &
Introduction

Findings

Suggestion

Suggestion

SEMARANG STATE POLYTECHN

2016

To increase the volume of Indonesia's plywood exports, the thing to note is

the quality and performance of the plywood industry itself. In this case the
government can increase production by maintaining the plywood raw
material provide training to enhance productivity of Indonesian plywood to
produce product with lower price and quality.
The government should always maintain stable economic conditions by
controlling the rate of inflation so that the exchange rate can be
maintained. Social and political conditions also need to be considered in
order to encourage investment that can ultimately benefit the country.
For the next researcher, to analyze the other variables that are not already
in this research, such as the production of plywood in Indonesia, the price
of plywood competitor countries and domestic prices of plywood in the
destination country.
Conclusion &
Introduction
Findings
Suggestion

THANK YOU