The Statistical Imagination

Chapter 6. Probability Theory

and the Normal Probability
Distribution

2008 McGraw-Hill

Probability Theory
Probability theory is the analysis
and understanding of chance
occurrences

2008 McGraw-Hill

What is a Probability?
A probability is a specification of how
frequently a particular event of
interest is likely to occur over a large
number of trials
Probability of success is the
probability of an event occurring
Probability of failure is the probability
of an event not occurring
2008 McGraw-Hill

The Basic Formula for

Calculating a Probability
p [of success] = the number of
successes divided by the number
of trials or possible outcomes,
where p [of success] = the
probability of the event of
interest"
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Basic Rules of Probability

Theory
There are five basic rules of
probability that underlie all
calculations of probabilities

2008 McGraw-Hill

Probability Rule 1: Probabilities

Always Range Between 0 and 1
Since probabilities are proportions of a total number of
possible events, the lower limit is a proportion of zero
(or a percentage of 0%)
A probability of zero means the event cannot happen,
e.g., p [of an individual making a free-standing leap of
30 feet into the air] = 0
A probability of 1.00 (or 100%) means the event will
absolutely happen, e.g., p [that a raw egg will break if
struck with a hammer ] = 1.00

2008 McGraw-Hill

Probability Rule 2: The Addition

Rule for Alternative Events
An alternative event is where there is more than
one outcome that makes for success
The addition rule states that the probability of
alternative events is equal to the sum of the
probabilities of the individual events
For example, for a deck of 52 playing cards:

p [ace or jack] = p [ace]

+ p [jack]
The word or is a cue to add probabilities;
substitute a plus sign for the word or
2008 McGraw-Hill

Probability Rule 3: Adjust for

Joint Occurrences
Sometimes a single outcome is successful in more
than one way
An example: What is the probability that a randomly
selected student in the class is male or single? A
single-male fits both criteria
We call single-male a joint occurrence an event
that double counts success
When calculating the probability of alternative
events, search for joint occurrences and subtract
the double counts
2008 McGraw-Hill

Probability Rule 4: The

Multiplication Rule
A compound event is a multiple-part event, such
as flipping a coin twice
The multiplication rule states that the probability of
a compound event is equal to the multiple of the
probabilities of the separate parts of the event
E.g., p [queen then jack] = p [queen] p [jack]
By multiplying, we extract the number of
successes in the numerator and the number of
possible outcomes in the denominator
2008 McGraw-Hill

Probability Rule 5: Replacement

and Compound Events
With compound events we must stipulate
whether replacement is to take place. For
example, in drawing a queen and then a
jack from a deck of cards, are we to
replace the queen before drawing for the
jack?
The probability with replacement will
compute differently than without
replacement
2008 McGraw-Hill

Using the Normal Curve as a

Probability Distribution
With an interval/ratio variable that is
normally distributed, we can compute
Z-scores and use them to determine the
proportion of a populations scores falling
between any two scores in the distribution
Partitioning the normal curve refers to
computing Z-scores and using them to
determine any area under the curve
2008 McGraw-Hill

Three Ways to Interpret the

Symbol, p
1. A distributional interpretation that describes
the result in relation to the distribution of
scores in a population or sample
2. A graphical interpretation that describes the
proportion of the area under a normal curve
3. A probabilistic interpretation that describes
the probability of a single random drawing
of a subject from this population
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Procedure for Partitioning Areas

Under the Normal Curve
1. Draw and label the normal curve stipulating
values of X and corresponding values of Z
2. Identify and shade the target area ( p )
under the curve
3. Compute Z-scores
4. Locate a Z-score in column A of the normal
curve table
5. Obtain the probability ( p ) from either
column B or column C
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Information Provided in the

Normal Curve Table
Column A contains Z-scores for one side of
the curve or the other
Column B provides areas under the curve
( p ) from the mean of X to the Z-score in
column A
Column C provides areas under the curve
from the Z-score in column A out into the
tail
2008 McGraw-Hill

Important Considerations in
Partitioning Normal Curves
The variable must be of interval/ratio
level of measurement
The sample and population must be
normally distributed
Always draw the curve and its target
area to avoid mistakes in reading the
normal curve table
2008 McGraw-Hill

Percentiles and the

Normal Curve
A percentile rank is the percentage of
a sample or population that falls at or
below a specified value of a variable
If a distribution of scores is normal in
shape, then the normal curve and
Z-scores can be used to quickly
calculate percentile ranks
2008 McGraw-Hill

Statistical Follies
The Gamblers Fallacy is the notion that past
gaming events, such as the roll of dice in the
casino game, Craps, are affected (or
dependent upon) past events
E.g., It is fallacious to think that because a
coin came up heads three times in a row that
tails is bound to come up on the next toss
The tosses are independent of one another
2008 McGraw-Hill